NCAAT: Where teams come from does matter

This will be the 13th of the last 18 basketball seasons that NC State fans will turn thoughts regarding the NCAA Tournament towards other teams that we can root both for and against.

Personally, I am conference/NCAAT/RPI/etc junkie. So, I thought this was a pretty good read to help set college basketball’s current landscape with a month to go before the big dance. (Additionally, this link to Rush the Court also does a nice job of framing the current NCAA Tournament landscape of the ACC)

This week’s bracketing process brought to mind The Wire character Marlo Stanfield, who when he received word that people on the street were talking about him, bellowed “My name is MY NAME!”

Much like in life on the streets of Baltimore, your name is currency when it comes to the bubble. That’s the harsh reality for outsiders trying to break into the bid cartel. Basically, if you have power (conference), you rule the block and it takes a lot to wrest away control.

A perfect example comes from these two bubble teams:

Team A: 3-2 RPI against the top 50, 7-5 RPI against the top 100, 8-5 road, two very bad losses (one at home).

Notes: Road wins at second- and fourth-place teams in No. 3 conference, beat leader of No. 6 conference.

Team B: 2-6 against the RPI top 50, 5-8 against the RPI top 100, 2-6 road, one bad home loss.

Notes: Road win at now second-place team in No. 2 conference. Other top-50 win is 49th in RPI. Lost by 22 at home to team tied for second in No. 6 conference.

Team A is William & Mary. Team B is Louisville. And the Cardinals made this week’s bracket ahead of the Tribe simply because I don’t think there’s any way the committee would leave out a 7-5 Big East team for the fourth-place team in the Colonial, regardless of what the overall profiles suggest. Years of bracket history suggest that Williams & Mary, which has two league losses to sub-200 teams, has shown just enough weakness to be cast aside while Louisville, with its big-boy conference, big upset of Syracuse and series of competitive losses to good teams, has provided just enough reason to support its rep.

It’s not fair, but that’s the way the bubble world works.

Also, you can’t help but love how the media just cannot accept what has happened to their mighty Tarheels this year.

For posterity’s sake, we’ll note that North Carolina (14-11, 3-7, RPI: 82, SOS: 15) needs to win at both Georgia Tech and BC this week to have any real hope. Even 7-9 in the conference looks really unlikely at this point.

GW: Ohio St. (with Evan Turner), Michigan St.
BL: at Coll. of Charleston, the huge batch of ACC defeats

For anyone who wants a little more national college basketball, then clicking on “The Dagger” is always a great thing.

With a non-conference schedule ranked, no I’m not kidding, 340th, Virginia Tech isn’t a shoo-in for the NCAA tournament like you might expect based on its gaudy 20-4 record. That’s why Tuesday night’s battle with Wake Forest could be so huge for the Hokies: It’s a chance for them to not only take over second place in the ACC, but also capture just their second victory over a top-50 RPI team.

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13 Responses to NCAAT: Where teams come from does matter

  1. Wolfy__79 02/16/2010 at 9:11 PM #

    unc-ch can lose the rest of their games and someone will still try to validate their bid to the ncaa’s, ntm with a couple of wins they will someone’s “sleeper” team? i never have understood how they can be so lucky. i’m never suprised at the sh#t they get away with on and off the court.. they suck, can’t stand ’em.

    i hate the way teams get burned that are on the bubble. numbers aren’t my strength so i pay little attention to the fine print behind who get in or out. IMO, bubble teams that can’t make it to the sweet sixteen shouldn’t have had the bid. i guess guesswork is the name of the game behind the curtain. i wouldn’t mind that job, but i would definetly ignore some of the numbers… a more common sense approach.

    i hate to see the most relevant statistic, 13/18 no postseason. so we’re basically getn to the tourney about 28% of the time. OUCH. haha, numbers that cannot solely be pointed at sid.. i like it. it is a shame though, no wonder i’ve learned to ignore such details pertaining to NCSU.

    you know what the sad thing is, even before we had sid and we were “good” under hwsnbn, i had the exact same feeling heading into games. i felt like we weren’t the odd on favorite.. ever. i just never felt like that was a winning style of PACK bball. yes, i still get that feeling now, but can atleast realize that our talent level isn’t all that great.

    va tech is an ncaa level team. they got ripped off last year in more than one way the final day of reg season/acc tourney! so vt just won the game, sure they need to continue to win to make it but that’s a no brainer. i hope they make it, they definetly have enough to hv a chance to win a game or two….

  2. VaWolf82 02/16/2010 at 9:45 PM #

    VT is in real trouble because of their OOC schedule. If you’re interested in seeing proof, look at the final stats from last year’s Penn State squad.

  3. D_Medlin 02/16/2010 at 9:55 PM #

    They took care of some of that tonight with a W over Wake Forest.

    Still a little work left to be done though…

  4. wufpup76 02/16/2010 at 10:01 PM #

    HUGE win for VT tonight …

    Still some work to do for them though.

    And William and Mary’s profile is solid. A couple of unfortunately bad losses in the Colonial are killing them. I hate that someone like an extremely unimpressive Louisville is slated ahead of them based on one win and conference affiliation. It’s like Ville’s losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte never happened now. FTR, I’m not saying W&M should necessarily be in, but if you look strictly at the numbers in the above post I would side with them ahead of Louisville. That’s only against Louisville though. You could throw any two teams up there and come up with different results. Fascinating stuff.

    The committee has surprised/impressed me though at times in the past few seasons by not always following the logic posited by said bracketolgists. It’s about objective, cold hard facts and numbers – and for the most part I think the committee usually does a good job with that. I hope it continues this season.

    You know, we could always win the ACCT … (hehehehehe)

  5. D_Medlin 02/16/2010 at 10:18 PM #

    Don’t you mean get to the ACCT final and lose by 15?

  6. Sweet jumper 02/16/2010 at 10:26 PM #

    Holes are getting drilled by GA Tech. Tech’s burger boys are much better than Roy’s burger boys. This cannot help UNX’s case for NCAAT bid.

  7. wufpup76 02/16/2010 at 11:02 PM #

    ^^Totally D_Medlin … totally.

    It’s the Wolfpack Way. 🙁

    Miss St. and UK heading to overtime on the WW Leader. Miss St. should’ve wrapped it up in regulation, but as with most teams with “State” in the name they promptly choked it away down the stretch.

    67-60 Miss St. w/ two minutes left. Now it’s heading to OT tied at … you guessed it, 67. Way to go, State.

  8. Wolfy__79 02/16/2010 at 11:26 PM #

    wow, i didn’t know gt was playing them tonight. lol. they suck. we haven’t locked last place yet! i’ll have that attitude until we own it the last day of the season. unfortunately, my attitude isn’t too comforting right now 🙁

  9. Wolfy__79 02/16/2010 at 11:28 PM #

    “heheheheheehe.” don’t go getn my hopes up

  10. tuckerdorm1983 02/17/2010 at 7:18 AM #

    maybe we can pin that honor on someone else. Go Heels… to the bottom

  11. tvp1 02/17/2010 at 9:57 AM #

    “Don’t you mean get to the ACCT final and lose by 15?”

    I’d be ecstatic with that outcome at this point.

  12. EdMar 02/17/2010 at 12:13 PM #

    How bad is UNC?

    UNC is so bad this year that the only team they can beat is NCSU.

    That tells it all.

    Go pack! I hope we can win one more this year.

  13. whope90 02/17/2010 at 3:29 PM #

    Doom,despair and tragedy on me!! If it weren’t for bad luck i have none at all,DOOM DEPAIR,TRAGEDY on me, the lowly wolfpack fan!!!

    13/18 years does that sound like:Domm,Despair and tragedy on me!!
    I work in a top coporation and if i had five minutes like el sid has had for four years, then i would be gone, i hope Obama is not like that!!!

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