Future Opponent Insight: Life on the margins

'09 Football12

Already having a great conversation regarding this weekend’s visit to Wake Forest on this entry on the blog and in this thread on the message boards.

Additionally, we thought that you would like find some value in this entry from the great Dr. Saturday. His work looks at the weekend of three of the Wolfpack’s upcoming opponents, including two of our next three as he dug into Wake’s visit to Boston College this past weekend.

DrSat

The Eagles gained more yards on their first possession Saturday (57) than in the entirety of the previous week’s weather-delayed debacle at Clemson (49), so B.C. fans have to be breathing a sigh of relief that ex-minor leaguer David Shinskie looks like a viable quarterback and the team may not be automatically destined for the cellar despite a fractious offseason and a harrowing conference debut. In fact, B.C. controlled the vast majority of this game, moving ahead 24-10 early in the fourth quarter.

The Deacons could have been there, though, if not for a few of the usual blown opportunities, specifically a fumble in Eagle territory and a missed field goal in the first half. With its back against the wall, Wake drove for two long touchdowns in the fourth quarter to tie, using a grand total of three minutes to go 67 and 80 yards, respectively, to put the game into overtime on a Riley Skinner throw into the end zone with 11 seconds left; from there, following a B.C. field goal on its turn with the ball, the Deacons proceeded to move to the Eagle three-yard line with a chance to score for the win. Cue crushing fumble on first-and-goal, an Eagle recovery and a hard ending to one of the best comeback efforts of the day.

The desperately-needed B.C. win takes a lot of sting out of the Eagles’ late defensive collapse, which couldn’t get a stop at the end of regulation (and nearly failed in overtime, too) and gave up five passes longer than 20 yards, most in the second half.

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'09 Football

12 Responses to Future Opponent Insight: Life on the margins

  1. choppack1 10/01/2009 at 1:06 PM #

    That’s an interesting article – and it should really have us wondering how good Wake CAN be.

    We know that they’ve kept pace w/ 3 D1 opponents. They’ve played great in fits and starts, but they’ve played awful in others. (Sound familiar??) And you read that article and look at the stats – and looks like BC was just really lucky to win this game.

    Look at this game and the @ BC game in a similar vein to how you’d look at a basketball game @ a mid to lower tier conference in the ACC.

    It’s the kind of team a strong/non-bubble team would win. In the same vein, the games @ BC and @ Wake are the kind that a Peach/Gator/ACC Championship game team would win. These 2 games will tell us how close we are to that level.

  2. GAWolf 10/01/2009 at 1:29 PM #

    The swing points concept is really, really interesting (although this one doesn’t show that in action).

    This game brings us to the same question the ECU/Carolina game did… are these two teams equally good or equally bad?

  3. choppack1 10/01/2009 at 1:41 PM #

    GA – I think ECU sucks. I think they were coached up enough to keep it close.

    I think UNC has lots of potential but a weak OL. Defensively, their scheme may be too simple right now.

    I do think Wake has talent – and we know Grobe will coach them up. Their problem w/ us is likely to be on D. But it worries me that they beat Stanford, because I think the Cardinal is a decent team.

  4. Alpha Wolf 10/01/2009 at 2:47 PM #

    Chop, that’s also a Stanford team playing across the country in weather that you will never, ever, ever see in Palo Alto. Their idea of heat and humid weather on the Peninsula is an unseasonably cool day in early September here. Stanford built an early lead and couldn’t hold it, in large part IMO because of conditioning.

  5. choppack1 10/01/2009 at 3:24 PM #

    Alpha – I’ve wondered if that was the case too. That would be the equivalent of 9 AM game for them – and it was pretty hot on that day.

    I’m hoping it’s not a sign of Wake’s potential because I think Stanford is a decent team.

  6. packalum44 10/01/2009 at 4:00 PM #

    I watched BC get beat up by Clemson. I watched Clemson take a bloody nose by G-Tech. I saw G-Tech get pushed around by Miami. I saw Miami get embarrassed by V-Tech. I saw Tyrod Taylor try to throw a football against Alabama.

    I saw NC State play like crap and almost beat a GOOD USC team. I also saw NC State’s Jekyll & Hyde, with Jekyll prevailing, against a good Pitt team.

    Does anyone get excited when App State and Richmond slug it out and put up 1000 yards in offense??? BC and Wake appear to be bad this year.

    I won’t pretend to know what the hell is going on in the ACC but color me purple if we lose this game.

  7. bradleyb123 10/02/2009 at 3:55 PM #

    I don’t think there’s any way we lose this game. We’re good and improving each time out. I think our offense will do better against their defense than vice-versa. Unless we commit turnovers or stupid, unforced penalties, I can’t imagine we would lose this game. We’re better than we were last year, and Wake is not as good as they were last year.

    I don’t mean to sound cocky for State. I just can’t imagine Wake beating this team. We might give up some big plays, but I think that will just enable Wake to keep it closer than it should be. I just hope we don’t let them hang around too long. You let Wake hang around, and they make you pay.

  8. gcpack 10/02/2009 at 5:15 PM #

    At the time I thought Pitt was a turning point game I now think the Wake game is even more pivotal. At some point either this season, hopefully, or maybe 2010 we will turn the corner and become the solid favorite in the majority of our games. It is bound to happen with TOB and his staff in charge and the recruiting continues to take steps like it did this week in getting players like Fre Shad Hunter.

    So while my fervent hope and expectation is that we should never lose to Wake I think there is a way that we can lose to them. TOB said that once we begin conference play nobody will be fooled by Wilson’s mobility since they already saw him last season (except for VaTech). We won’t surprise the rest of the ACC like we did Wannstedt who said he didnt expect Wilson to run like he did.

    Hopefully Wilson is like Charlie Ward at FSU when everyone knew what he was going to do but they still couldn’t do anything about it. If that turns out to be the case then the corner will be turned in ’09.

  9. bradleyb123 10/02/2009 at 5:31 PM #

    Of course we can lose. I just don’t see it happening if we play our game. I think our offense is too powerful to not get the job done against Wake (no disrespect to Wake).

    I think the Pitt game was pivotal in that if we lost that game, we’d be 2-2 (with both wins against low-level FCS teams) heading into the ACC schedule, and we’d have to finish 5-3 in the ACC just to be bowl eligible. And our confidence might be reeling right about now.

    The Wake game is nearly as pivotal because a win there, plus a presumed win at home against Duke, would leave us at (5-1, 2-0) headed to BC. Not to mention, FSU and Clemson both have a conference loss. I think Wake is one of the lesser teams in our division. If we lose to them, we’ll surely lose others. If we win our first two conference games, we’re making some noise in the division.

    I still think the Pitt game was a little more pivotal than the Wake game. We have the confidence that we can beat good FBS teams, and we can play from behind when we need to. We’re learning that we’re good, and gaining confidence. That started with Pitt, IMO.

  10. Wufpacker 10/02/2009 at 8:48 PM #

    Of course we won’t lose if we play our game. But how many teams can say that? There’s been a lot of inconsistency with ACC teams already so far in this young season, including us, and they’re all saying “if…”

    That’s the whole question…can we play our game? So far we haven’t shown that we can put a whole 60 mins together. Hopefully tomorrow we’ll get closer.

    And if Wannstedt really said he didn’t expect Wilson to run like he did, then he’s an idiot and Pitt should fire him immediately and name an interim coach. If true, then he didn’t bother to watch any of the many game films available to him, and as such did not do everything he could to prepare his team to win.

  11. 61Packer 10/02/2009 at 9:13 PM #

    I think we can lose even if we play our game. Take nothing for granted. The Wolfpack nation, and past Wolfpack football teams as well, have taken Wake Forest entirely too lightly. The Deacs don’t overpower people, but they’ve done a good job of making their opponents look bad. That’s their game.

    This team is well-coached. But so are we, which is different than on our last trip to Winston. I like our chances, but I’m not taking anything for granted.

  12. Wufpacker 10/03/2009 at 7:07 AM #

    Its probably true that many State fans take Wake too lightly, although at this point in time I cannot for the life of me understand why. Of course, for many years Wake was stationed barely above Duke with regard to perennial futility on the football field. I suppose maybe its a carry-over from then. But its been a good 10 years or more since Wake has been a gimme. Heck, even when they were considered a gimme they still gave us fits all too often.

    Also, I think you hit the nail on the head when you said that past TEAMS have taken them far too lightly as well. Two years in particular jump to mind without even having to think about it, and I’m sure with a few moments thought I could probably double that number. Fortunately I think the man now at the controls won’t often lose due to taking an opponent lightly.

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