Cheap Seats Football Retrospective: Part IV, 2007-Present

1999 NC State Football Helmet

A nerve-racking goal-line stand preserved the 31-27 victory on November 10, 2007

This is Part IV of a five-part series that is by no means intended to be authoritative. Rather, it’s nothing more than an incomplete, inconclusive, sometimes erroneous, while always biased retrospective of recent State football history. Part of this was based on nothing more than my attempt to answer the question so many of us are left asking year after year: How did we get here?

Part I: The 90s
Part II: Chuck
Part III: 17

Part IV: TOB
2000 HelmetChuck Amato deserves much of the credit for the current state of Carter-Finley, the renewed pride and excitement for football, and for fueling our aspirations of national prominence. The latter actually proved to be his eventual downfall: by raising our expectations he built a monster that he couldn’t control. Once it was clear he was vastly incapable of delivering on his far-reaching rhetoric, he began a systematic alienation of his fan base and, apparently, the Big Money. He’d always been a talker, but by 2006 he was no longer able to talk his way into extending his welcome.

It was painfully evident that what we needed after the 2006 season was a steady presence, a proven success, to redirect the sputtering program.

Uncommon for Lee Fowler, Tom O’Brien’s hiring was quick, smooth and definitive. He arrived at State with little fanfare (largely due to the simultaneous hiring of Nick Saban by Alabama), although his hiring did generate an appropriately quiet buzz nationally – most pundits agreed that he was an excellent hire for a program that needed, above all, stability. He proved a refreshing presence with his steady, focused approach to both coaching and relating to the monster that is the N.C. State fan base (especially LRM). He showed an immediate panache for fitting in, which around these parts is sometimes as simple as doing a Bojangle’s commercial.

The irony with O’Brien is that in 2009, he seems, if not the perfect fit, at least a most excellent fit; but back in 2000 that wouldn’t have been the case. Without the initial surge under Amato and then the subsequent freefall after Philip left, most of us would hardly appreciate the fact that O’Brien was a steal. Back in 2000, we needed a coach with Amato’s outward passion – O’Brien simply lacks that inherent swagger, tending instead towards silent bravado – but in 2009, O’Brien seems (at least so far) to be exactly the leader we need to build a solid foundation and then focus on long-term prominence, which is something that has escaped the State fan for generations.

A legacy of George Welsh (regarded by most as the model of winning consistency in college football), O’Brien came to State after establishing his own staple consistency. In 1996, he took over a Boston College program that was mired in scandal and within two years shaped it into a perennial eight-game winner, winning nine games during four of his final five seasons in Chestnut Hill. For perspective: State has only four nine-win seasons over the past twenty years, two of which were under Dick Sheridan in 1991 & 1992 (the others were 1994, under O’Cain; and 2002, under Amato). He spent 10 years at Boston College and led the Eagles to eight consecutive bowl games, winning each of the final six.

O’Brien proved successful at Boston College despite a morosely apathetic fan base and facilities far inferior to those in Raleigh even before the current renovations. He’d coached in Raleigh as an assistant at Virginia, but his only trip to Carter-Finley as head coach of Boston College was in October 2006 – an aside: if Daniel Evans hadn’t thrown that Hail Mary that night, we would have all been spared a lot of heartburn from three years of the Anti-Philip — but even in that losing effort, he was left impressed with State fans’ enthusiasm. He announced during his initial press conference after being hired that he had decided that night if he ever left Boston College, it was “N.C. State or bust.”

Now, I’m certainly not an O’Brien biographer, but by all indications, his reputation for consistency is borne of pragmatism. Not dissimilar to when he went to Boston College, he came to State with the implicit understanding that the short-term would be difficult. Beyond the obvious issues in 2006 – poor discipline, which had led to excessive, unnecessary penalties; poor execution, which had led to excessive turnovers; and poor attitudes, which had resulted in erratic, uninspiring play – he inherited a mess of a program. Beyond the staggering lack of fundamentals needed for success, injuries and depth issues were epidemic. Moreover, he would have to rebuild a paper-thin offensive line while simultaneously developing a new offensive system, all without even a remotely serviceable quarterback.

He lost his coaching debut to Central Florida 25-23 (at home), and his comments after the game indicated a certain delight in the fact his team had lost: it would reinforce his point that this group would buy into his system and his philosophy; otherwise they’d suffer the indignity of losing. It took a 1-5 start for the message to apparently get across, but over the final six games, State was 4-2, largely because the offense reduced its turnovers by half and Nate Irving emerged as an overwhelming presence on defense. After an uninspired performance in a season-ending home loss to Maryland, O’Brien’s first team finished 5-7. The theme that first season wasn’t much different than the previous two decades: we lost a game we shouldn’t have lost (Central Florida) and won a game we shouldn’t have won (at Miami); however, the glaring exception was the gut-wrenching November 10 goal-line stand in the final seconds to secure the 31-27 victory over Carolina in Raleigh.

The realists among us tempered our expectations for 2008. The options at quarterback were Daniel “Pick Six” Evans and Harrison “Just Heave It” Beck, and then some relative-unknown named Russell Wilson. Going into the season opener in Columbia, O’Brien named Wilson the starter; the announcement seemed to draw neither praise nor condemnation, simply because in the five seasons Anno Philip, we’d been conditioned to expect very little from the position. After two decades of, at the very least, serviceable quarterbacks, Davis, Stone, Evans, Beck and Burke had all been washouts. The problems were decision-making and accuracy: this quintet combined for a total of only 54 touchdowns with 82 interceptions from 2004-2008. The single-worst combined performance was in the loss at home against Clemson in 2007 (also known as the day Carter-Finley ran out of water), when Evans, Beck and Burke each somehow managed to throw an interception (I’ll stand firm that this has to be a record among BCS teams).

So I’ll admit, last August I wasn’t exactly high on Wilson, but he was a better option than Evans or Beck, which wasn’t really saying much.

And in that ESPN Thursday Night opener against the Gamecocks, he was hardly impressive. Before he was knocked out of the game with a concussion, he was a mere one-of-five for 12 yards passing. More damning for O’Brien was the second consecutive shutout – and blowout – loss: the 2007 season had ended with a 37-0 loss to Maryland in Raleigh and then the 2008 season began with a 34-0 loss at South Carolina. The following week, State defeated William & Mary in a game closer than it should’ve been. Then the next week at Death Valley, we failed to score an offensive touchdown for the third consecutive game against a Division I-A opponent in a 27-9 loss to Clemson; Wilson was again unimpressive, with an interception and only 10-of-21 passing. The realistic and reasonable – nay, rational – among us were delaying our hopes for any sustained success until O’Brien could get some experience on the line to protect the Glennon kid in a couple years. But as September grinded past, some of us weren’t sure we were ready to give O’Brien the time we all knew he realistically needed.

When East Carolina came to Raleigh on September 20, State completed one part of the recurring theme with a fourth-quarter rally for a 30-24 overtime win – we won a game we shouldn’t have won. Wilson’s legacy began with a three-touchdown performance on 21-of-31 passing for 210 yards, and his freshman campaign ended after he threw 17 consecutive touchdowns without an interception the rest of the season. By the Thanksgiving weekend regular season finale against Miami, we were firmly entrenched in a love affair of Wilson’s arm, mobility and decision-making, which spurred his improbable run to both the ACC Rookie of the Year and First Team All ACC.

On Wilson’s back, State rattled off four consecutive wins against Duke, Wake, Carolina, and then Miami to salvage a 6-6 record and slip into the Papajohns.com Bowl in Birmingham as the ACC’s tenth bowl team. Even though State collapsed – sans Wilson – in the second half of that game, leaving O’Brien with a losing record of 6-7 on the season, he finally broke the trend of the past two decades by not losing any games we shouldn’t have lost and winning a game – or in this case, two – we probably shouldn’t have won (at Carolina, Wake). Now, it’s no doubt arguable we lost games we had a chance to win (Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, Rutgers), but none of these were games we went into as the favorite. But most importantly, O’Brien moved to 2-0 against Butch Davis and Carolina after a 41-10 rout in Chapel Hill on November 22, which turned out to be just another game for us.

If the two stick around, O’Brien will forever be compared to his rival, Butch Davis. It’s an argument I’m neither prepared to make nor defend this early in their tenures, but early returns suggest that while Davis will probably always out-recruit O’Brien, and probably win some games against State simply because of the talent-level, O’Brien will usually out-coach Davis, and win some games against Carolina he shouldn’t, just like in 2008.

Now, I’m not quite ready to anoint O’Brien as The One (let’s start with a winning season first), but as long as he keeps beating Carolina, I’ll certainly leave that option open.

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

Fans Flashback NCS Football Tom O'Brien

67 Responses to Cheap Seats Football Retrospective: Part IV, 2007-Present

  1. SouthernWolf 08/06/2009 at 10:48 AM #

    The true measure of a coach’s ability to recruit is whether or not he gets the players he targets. Now whether he is targeting talented players or not is another measure entirely. It seems to me that no matter what recruiting service you look at these NC prospects are at the top: Rob Crisp, Keenan Allen, Gabe King, Alfy Hill, Fre’Shad Hunter, David Amerson, Tony Creecy, and Kendall Moore. Different services have them listed in different orders but these are basically the top prospects in our state. Now TOB and NC State have basically not recruited two of these (Keenan Allen, Gabe King) despite the fact that they are ranked by all the recruiting services as some of NC’s top talent. I have no inside information so I do not know why they have not recruited them but I am sure TOB and staff has his reasons. My point in this whole rambling mess is that TOB’s recruiting ability should be evaluated based on the recruits he targets. So an end of the season comparison between NC State and UNC on who landed the most top NC prospects would not necessarily be a valid comparison b/c they targeted two more of NC’s top prospects than we did.

  2. choppack1 08/06/2009 at 11:11 AM #

    Southern Wolf – That’s a fair point.

    At this point, we don’t know who will build the better program. However, if TOB ends up having an excellent record vs. UNC and basically has the kind of record at NC State that he had at BC – I won’t really care – as long as UNC isn’t playing in BCS bowls.

    If during that time, UNC dominates the 2nd sport of football recruiting – I won’t give a tinkers damn. It’s definitely fun to follow recruiting – and it was especially fun when AJ Davis spurned the Heels and became a Wolfpacker – but I think we can all agree that the true joy comes when you get that “W” on a Saturday in the fall against your rival.

  3. VaWolf82 08/06/2009 at 12:23 PM #

    I don’t give a tinker’s damn about “recruiting” and never follow it until signing day. I look at the class rankings in Feb for general info and then move on. However, if you think that coaching is more important than getting top talent, then I think that you are sadly mistaken. It takes BOTH recruiting and coaching to create a top team.

    The bi-polar nature of the State fan base (and maybe every fan base) gets a little hard to take. When State gets a highly-ranked recruit, the message boards light up. When State has a higher-ranked class, the message boards light up. When neither of those situations happen, we get all of the BS about how recruiting rankings aren’t perfect, class rankings are meaningless, etc.

    The original post made the statement that BD has recruited better than TOB. That statement applies over their entire careers and over the last three years. This statement is true, no matter how many caveats and excuses you dream up. The entry then went on and extended that condition into the future. This speculation is not necessarily true, but is certainly reasonable. (Personally, I would prefer to wait and see how things pan out.)

    Differences in recruiting don’t necessarily play into game day results…especially when the coach (ie Amato) fails to recruit an entire TEAM. However, there are plenty of correlations between recruiting success and game-day success (USC, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, etc). The general correlation between recruiting and winning is just that….general and not necessarily applicable to any one school.

    Those that are predicting BD/UNC to follow the exact same path as Amato would be well advised and hold that opinion until/if it happens….especially since BD has already achieved more than Bunting ever did.

  4. choppack1 08/06/2009 at 1:41 PM #

    “especially since BD has already achieved more than Bunting ever did.”

    Maybe at Miami – but Butch hasn’t had a season at Chapel Hill that’s as good as Bunting’s first in Chapel Hill. Buntcakes actually did a pretty good job w/ that squad.

    However, for the larger picture, I’d agree w/ you that it’s foolish to say Butch Davis = Amato when it comes to recruiting and results.

    Regarding football recruiting I’d say this: I think in football, player identification and development play a larger role than they do in basketball. In other words, to a certain extent – the ratings DON’T mean as much as they do in basketball. However, when you are talking USC and Florida – where the two – good recruiting and good coaching – meet…well, you’re right, you better have excellent talent to compete.

  5. Girlfriend in a Coma 08/06/2009 at 1:51 PM #

    “Those that are predicting BD/UNC to follow the exact same path as Amato would be well advised and hold that opinion until/if it happens….especially since BD has already achieved more than Bunting ever did.”

    Four things.

    1) I don’t think anyone has said BD and UNC will follow “the exact same path.”

    2) BD has not beaten NC State, which Bunting did 3 times.

    LRM Note: For the record, Davis defeated State in the 1998 MicronPC Bowl.

    3) Chuck “achieved” a lot from 2000-2003. More than any State coach since the 70s. That was not necessarily and indicator of program-building ability.

    4) If TOB had been at Miami and BD at BC I wonder who would have outrecruited whom. I know I have a guess.

  6. LRM 08/06/2009 at 2:41 PM #

    Not sure which direction the comments would have gone had I left out that second to last paragraph, but my intent was to take a jab at Davis for being a “recruiter” while I believe TOB is a coach.

    They don’t hang banners for “Best Recruiting Class,” which is only one of several reasons I pay almost no attention to recruiting. They do, however, hang banners when coaches win.

  7. primacyone 08/06/2009 at 3:19 PM #

    I don’t give a tinker’s damn what the cause is, as long as the result is 41-10 in our favor.

    Most fan’s think the same way – ask CT or MOC? Heck 56,000,000 fans in the stands, I’d bet less than 10% have ever looked at recruiting numbers/reports, etc.

    LRM Note: That’s a lot fans.

    If BMFD goes 10 and 2 this year, is that because he can coach or because he can recruit?

  8. choppack1 08/06/2009 at 3:31 PM #

    *If TOB had been at Miami and BD at BC I wonder who would have outrecruited whom. I know I have a guess*

    Excellent point.

    It’s certainly easier to recruit at Miami than it is at BC.

    And it’s easier to recruit at UNC than it is at NC State.

    I have to agree GIAC – it’s not really fair to say, “Butch Davis is a better recruiter than TOB because he’s signed better players.” It’s like the GM of the Yankees or Red Sox than the GM of the Brewers because he’s signed better free agents.

  9. Girlfriend in a Coma 08/06/2009 at 4:41 PM #

    “LRM Note: For the record, Davis defeated State in the 1998 MicronPC Bowl.”

    Mike O’Paycheck losing to yet another UNC-CH coach.

  10. wolfp83 08/06/2009 at 9:42 PM #

    To stop this thought process of,the only thing that matters
    is for TOB to beat UNC first and everything else second is
    I hope going to be a thing of the past. I dont know about
    the rest of you but,I have been following the wolfpack for
    42 years and I get tired of that thinking . Some of
    you fans play right into the tarheel trap. THEY SHOULD BE
    ONLY A STEPPING STONE ON THE WAY TO CHAMPIONSHIPS.
    YOU WANTTO PISS THEM OFF PACK FANS? THEN SAY THESE
    WORDS AND LIVE BY THEM… ALWAYS, AND IT DOESN’T MATTER
    IF IT HAPPENS OR NEVER HAPPENS. OUR EYE IS ALWAYS ON THE
    TARGET AND THAT IS THE NATIONAL STAGE ONLY. THIS I HAVE
    ALWAYS BEEN WAITING FOR IN FOOTBALL AND I BELIEVE I WILL
    SEE IF GOD PERMITS BEFORE I DIE.

  11. GAWolf 08/06/2009 at 10:54 PM #

    VAWolf: I’ve always had a ton of interest in and respect for your opinions, but I do think you’ve missed the boat on what the majority of folks are saying in this thread. For years I’ve cringed at how State fans are victims of their own hype machine. It’s never ending. You’re very right about that. However, I don’t think that’s at all what you’re seeing here. We’re not throwing stones at BD in an effort to elevate TOB. Rather I personally believe that what TOB did at BC is equally as impressive as what BD did at Miami… all things considered. I think that translates into the “now” as you’ve never had the chance to compare apples to apples in this regard. And the only thing you can compare is a couple of head-to-head games and most of us here like what we see. To the contrary, Amato allegedly out-recruited Bunting year after year and for those of us who made an effort to sit in the stands and watch that series unfold, it was a disaster year in and year out. We got pummeled on the field of play with what our staff would like you to believe was superior talent… the result of superior, fast-lane, song swooning recruiting. We’ve lived both sides of this thing, and we like what we see in TOB and staff. The key here is who is really able to say what TOB did at BC is any less of an accomplishment than what BD did at Miami or what we’re seeing year-to-year so far with both of these guys in the Triangle. It’s just not nearly as cut and dry as you say it is… nor are any of us blatantly and blindly drawing a line in the sand as you’ve accused. There’s just so much more to this discussion than you’re right and everyone else is wrong.

  12. choppack1 08/07/2009 at 8:56 AM #

    GA – to be fair – I think a lot of state fans ARE making the comparison of Butch Davis to Chuck Amato.

    I don’t buy that – and I don’t think you necessarily do either – but I have seen that a couple of times on this thread. Me, I’d be happy if this worked out like the concurrent time of when the Heels had Mack Brown and we had Sheridan – but I don’t think that’s the case AND I don’t want to endure 7 straight losses when TOB retires/leaves/whatever.

  13. VaWolf82 08/07/2009 at 3:27 PM #

    We’re not throwing stones at BD in an effort to elevate TOB.

    I shouldn’t try to read minds, but many of the comments made with regards to BD and recruiting lead me to draw that conclusion. With regards to recruiting, I don’t see any reason to deride BD at all. So it makes me wonder what the motivation there is for State fans to make fun of his recruiting. (Personally, I believe that BD is good recruiter but only an average game day coach…but maybe that’s just me.)

    Rather I personally believe that what TOB did at BC is equally as impressive as what BD did at Miami

    Then you’re grading on a sliding scale that doesn’t exist in the real world. I’m perfectly happy with TOB, but BD built a NC caliber team at Miami. Yes he had advantages over most schools…but he made the most of those advantages.

    Let’s go all the way back to the original entry….LRM made the observation that BD has out-recruited TOB so far. Based on the only information that we have right now (ie recruiting services), there is no basis for arguing with that statement. LRM probably went a step too far in predicting the future…but it is not unreasonable.

    To the contrary, Amato allegedly out-recruited Bunting year after year

    Based on scout’s class rankings from 2002 – 2006, there is very little difference between the two schools. UNC’s classes ranked from 13-35th and State’s went from 9-42nd….with UNC having the higher class ranking three years out of five. I would call the “recruiting” fairly even…but Amato probably loses out in the “team building” category.

    It’s just not nearly as cut and dry as you say it is

    What matters is team building, not recruiting class rankings. Judging “team building” is clearly not cut and dry. Judging recruiting (with the only information we have) is very cut and dry. I took LRM’s statement to be a summary of recruiting class rankings…in any event, that was all that I was attempting to discuss.

  14. bradleyb123 08/07/2009 at 4:01 PM #

    ^^^ “So it makes me wonder what the motivation there is for State fans to make fun of his recruiting.”

    Speaking only for myself, I never made fun of BD’s recruiting. I only took issue with the assertion that he will “always” out-recruit TOB. He has overall, but this is only their third year with their respective programs and TOB has done a pretty good job holding his own in the recruiting rankings. He did beat BD one year, even if it was close enough for you to call it a “wash”. (At least a “wash” means TOB was not out-recruited that year, but technically-speaking, he did win the recruiting battle that year.) And TOB leads in 2010 recruiting so far.

    I think how they recruit going forward depends on what they do with their teams. Success breeds better recruiting. I expect more success from TOB than BD, and therefore better and better recruiting. Hence, my disagreement with the assertion about him “always” out-recruiting TOB.

    ^^^ “LRM made the observation that BD has out-recruited TOB so far.”

    There’s no arguing with that, but LRM also made the comment that he will “always” out-recruit TOB. That’s the only part I had a problem with from the getgo.

  15. tjfoose1 08/09/2009 at 1:02 AM #

    LRM, you responded to my previous posting with:

    LRM Note: He played in every game and started each of the final four. He caused two fumbles and half his tackles were during this stretch (27 of 56), and he had 10 tackles against Miami. Pretty impressive to me, anyway.

    *****

    OK, you made me curious, so maybe I Roger Clemens’d it, ie, misremembered… Maybe I was wrong, so I went back and looked up a few things…

    Actually, Irving only started 3 games (according to the official stats anyway), did not play against Wofford (injured), and averaged less than 6 tackles his last 3 games, w/ no interceptions and no sacks the entire year. I too thought his overall play was ‘impressive’ (I remember thinking he reminded me of a young Thunder Dan), but it fell far short of making him an “overwhelming presence on defense”.

    Don’t misunderstand. I love the site, and your specific postings. My original comment was just a “point of information”. I did not intend to argue or start a debate. I was actually surprised by your response, as I expected a quick acknowledgement.

    Part of my reason for submitting it was to point out that a ‘surprise player’ can emerge almost every year, especially from within a program as well run and coached as TOB’s. Those more knowledgable might not have been surprised by Irving’s emergence in 2008, but most laymen, football novice type fans were.

    While not at the same level as Irving, I expect Audie Cole to surprise and turn heads this year. I was not impressed by Maddox’s play, and expect him to fall behind the other ‘backers.

    Although Irving showed great potential in 2007, flashed that great play making ability, and several times landed one of those hits that generated “oohs” and “awwhs” from the crowd, he simply fell far short of being an “overwhelming presence on defense”. Yes, he showed signs that he could become that, but in 2007, he simply was not that.

    If you disagree, then we have different understandings of the meaning of “overwhelming”.

    If I am in the minority, then I would have expected Irving to get much more preseason press going into the 2008 season. After all, anyone who had been an “overwhelming presence on defense” in 2007 should have at the very least been an honorable mention for one of the 2008 All ACC preseason teams.

    But whether we agree or not, I appreciate your work here and all your postings. Keep up the good work and I’ll keep chirping in from time to time. Thank you.

    LRM Note: Nothing wrong with that — great counterpoint. That’s how you make an argument right there (and of course a little debate is always fun). It’s funny how we remember things sometimes, because by the end of 2007 I was looking for any silver lining I could find, and Nate was it. I think I would have been better off saying he “emerged” in 2007 and became “overwhelming” in 2008, but I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, especially about Cole.

  16. GAWolf 08/09/2009 at 6:23 AM #

    As long as everyone can agree that Irving was fantastic in ’08 and will be sorely missed while he’s out in ’09 then I think this “debate” is pointless. Who really cares when he got to the point of being a key to our defense as long as we know he is now and thus will be greatly missed. And he will.

  17. tjfoose1 08/09/2009 at 6:13 PM #

    GAWolf – LRM and I are just enjoying the intellectual exercise. Part of the reason being that if Irving can emerge as he did, so can others. Audie Cole for one, and I think too, Jeff Rieskamp starts to show ‘flashes’ this year. Rieskamp though, is probably still a year away from a major impact player. His first step off the line is QUICK! He’s usually into his 2nd step before the O-tackle finishes his first. Throw in another year of strength and technique development, and I think we have another star DE.

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