No Margin For Error: State vs. Maryland Pre-Game Thread

08-09 Basketball47

turtleThanks to Chop for neatly summarizing not only NC State’s in-game scenario, but also the rest of their season: the Wolfpack has no margin for error, and not only does each game rest on each four minute segment of their last few regular season contests, but each segment could also seal their post-season fate as well.  The team is out of free passes: a loss right now to teams that the Pack can and should beat would be devastating to their NIT hopes.

Good thing for the Wolfpack that Maryland has not played well away from the Comcast Center.  The Terps single road ACC win this season was 57-56 squeaker over DFL Georgia Tech on February 8th.  But make no mistake – this is a very tough game as Maryland is fighting for their NCAA-Tournament-lives sitting at 6-7 in the conference and 17-10 overall.

Additionally, the engine that drives the Terps – Greivis Vasquez – always plays particularly well against the Wolfpack. Vasquez presents match-up problems for everyone – particularly a Wolfpack team whose strong suit is not defense. If State matches-up man-to-man against the Terps the only hopes of containing Vasquez probably rest with Farnold Degand &/or Courtney Fells. With this said, we have to hope that Fells brings his “I am going to bust my ass” mindset as opposed to his “ho-hum, what is going on out here” attitude.

Despite the seemingly pessimistic view of Brett Friedlander in the ACC Insider, State has a solid chance of winning this home game and picking up at least one more conference win before heading to Atlanta in a couple of weeks.

Given N.C. State’s history, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Wolfpack can come out of nowhere, win the ACC Tournament and secure an automatic bid into the NCAA’s field of 65. More than likely, though, coach Sidney Lowe and his team are looking at the NIT as their most realistic postseason possibility.

For that to happen, it’s going to take at least one more win — which would guarantee State of an above .500 finish. The problem is, that win won’t come easily at home against a hungry Maryland team, at home against Boston College and on the road against a Miami squad that could be playing for its NCAA Tournament life before going to on to Atlanta.

Fair enough, but I expect State to pick up two more wins before the tournament and I think that they win in the ATM against the Terps.

NAME GM MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
Greivis Vasquez 27 33.9 16.5 5.6 4.7 2.8 1.7/1 1.4 0.5 2.2 .401 .874 .325 1.16
Landon Milbourne 27 28.8 12.9 5.4 0.7 1.5 1/2.2 1.1 1.1 2.3 .521 .854 .313 1.33
Eric Hayes 27 29.3 9.7 3.0 3.3 1.9 1.7/1 1.2 0.2 1.1 .404 .848 .366 1.16
Adrian Bowie 27 24.9 9.7 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.3/1 1.2 0.3 1.9 .460 .710 .250 1.31
Dave Neal 27 22.5 7.5 4.1 0.8 0.7 1.2/1 0.7 0.1 1.7 .411 .784 .323 1.09
Cliff Tucker 26 12.4 5.2 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.4/1 0.8 0.3 1.0 .437 .792 .414 1.13
Sean Mosley 27 19.5 5.1 3.6 1.3 1.3 1/1 0.8 0.3 1.9 .364 .732 .222 1.08
Braxton Dupree 20 11.8 2.5 2.9 0.1 0.6 1/11 0.3 0.5 1.2 .350 .412 .000 0.82
Dino Gregory 27 15.0 2.4 2.9 0.2 0.8 1/3.5 0.4 1.0 2.5 .388 .522 .000 0.96
Jin-Soo Kim 20 6.7 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.6 – 0.3 0.3 0.9 .286 .714 .238 0.81
Jerome Burney 9 7.6 0.9 1.9 0.2 0.2 1/1 0.0 0.7 0.7 .267 .000 .000 0.53
Steve Goins 4 3.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 – 0.0 0.3 0.3 .000 .500 .000 2.00
David Pearman 9 1.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 – 0.0 0.0 0.1 .000 .000 .000 –
Team Averages 27 – 72.3 37.7 14.7 12.9 1.1/1 8.0 4.6 16.5 .420 .766 .320 1.15

In my mind, the key to the game is simple: shut down Vasquez and cut the head off of the turtle offense.

Share your pre-game thoughts below.

08-09 Basketball

47 Responses to No Margin For Error: State vs. Maryland Pre-Game Thread

  1. PoppaJohn 02/28/2009 at 9:04 AM #

    And we should be well prepared to play the Jeff Teague defense. Hope they don’t know the James Johnson counter-attack. Get him, Courtney!

    GO PACK!! Let’ win out and surprise everyone (me included) – and terrify whoever we draw in the ACCT.

  2. blpack 02/28/2009 at 9:59 AM #

    Big game tomorrow and a chance to bounce back after coming up short in W-S. We need to protect home court.

  3. burnbarn 02/28/2009 at 10:47 AM #

    Shut down Greivis…. That will be tough… 2 of 3 of Ben, Fells or Costner have to show up offensively.

    I don’t think either of our 3 remaining games could be put in the ‘should beat’ column. I think these last 3 games for this team are ‘could beat’.

    The only should beats for us in the ACC are UVa and GT. Everything else is a toss up.

  4. Alpha Wolf 02/28/2009 at 10:54 AM #

    ^ Burn, I know where you are coming from, but I have personally raised my standard of expectation as NC State has improved its play. Coupled with the poor road play from the Terps, and given the situation, I think State should win…not just could.

  5. Wulfpack 02/28/2009 at 11:33 AM #

    We are likely to finish either 9th or 10th. If we’re 9th, we’d currently draw #8 Maryland and then have to face the top-seeded Heels on Friday afternoon.

    If we’re 10th, we’d currently draw #7 VT with #2 Duke waiting on us for Friday night’s match-up.

    In no way are all of these seedings set in stone, but it appears likely that we’ll get either Duke or UNC in the second round, assuming we are fortunate enough to win in the first round.

    I’d take that second scenario (finishing 10th) any day of the week as we always play well against the Hokies, and we know we can compete with the Devils.

  6. wufpup76 02/28/2009 at 12:09 PM #

    I’ll be interested to see what defenses we show, and how we react to the Flex (which we never have fared well against).

    I’m hoping we’ll establish inside early and often, especially Costner to get him rolling again. Hopefully Fells, CJ and company will be able to stick to General Greivis like glue.

    I respectfully disagree w/ Alpha’s assessment that we “should” win. It’s certainly a “winnable” game, and one that State needs to start winning almost every time at home against teams of Maryland’s current caliber (average to pretty good; not much shown on the road). One of the problems is that Gary Williams has whipped Sidney each time they’ve played in the previous two seasons, and we’ve struggled with Maryland for most of this decade (save for a couple of nice road wins up there under HWSNBN).

    Another problem is that they will press … and press … and press. We’ve looked better against it recently, but this is a desperate team that will be pulling out all the stops. Here’s to hoping our guards are ready to go and everyone is ready to execute their assignments. I sure hope we don’t come out looking confused and frightened against it. Stay aggressive, take it to them … make them pay.

    I’m not feeling quite as optimistic after the Virginia and WF games, so I would take a win against a desperate team as a really good sign about the character of the team. I have been impressed all season that the team has shown some resiliency after some tough losses.

    We owe these guys plenty, so taking it to them and knocking them off the bubble would thrill me greatly.

    Go Pack

  7. BJD95 02/28/2009 at 12:12 PM #

    I expect we will beat MD then lose our next two. The first round ACCT game depends on matchup, as well as any longshot chance to make it to Saturday.

    Obviously, we want to play VT and avoid UNC for as long as humanly possible.

  8. wufpup76 02/28/2009 at 12:35 PM #

    In a stunning development, Chapel Hill is getting a ton of calls against Ga Tech.

    Gus Johnson and Greg Anthony have uttered the words “looks like Hansbrough traveled” on multiple occassions today.

  9. LKNpackfan 02/28/2009 at 1:28 PM #

    ^I’ve got that game on in the background, and of the few minutes that I have watched, I’ve counted 4 times that he’s walked with no call.

  10. Greywolf 02/28/2009 at 2:36 PM #

    Alpha Wolf
    February 28th, 2009 at 10:54 am
    ^ Burn, I know where you are coming from, but I have personally raised my standard of expectation as NC State has improved its play. Coupled with the poor road play from the Terps, and given the situation, I think State should win…not just could.

    Alpha, I like where you are coming from, raising your/my expectations since we have improved. I expect that where we, we being you, Burns and myself, differ is in using the “should” word. There are times that I *expect* to win but don’t think we *should* win. For a team that was suspect to pull a Detroit Lions, to have its game vs. Md be labeled a “should win” may be a little over the top.

    As a State fan I don’t need to *should* on myself any more than I already have these last 20 or so years. 🙂 As BJD often says, we’ve *should* the bed a plenty — without being set-up for it.

    BTW Alpha, Thanks for the candid but fair piece the other day. Both sides of the picture were fairly given, which is not always the case here.

  11. redfred2 02/28/2009 at 2:48 PM #

    Watching the unc game, it’s just too bad that the NCAA doesn’t have the b*lls to uphold THE RULES OF THE GAME. Just about everytime hansbro touches the ball, he hops with both feet, just enough to get space away from his defender, effectively giving himself a way to get up off the floor and get the shot off, when actually the defender is playing GOOD defense and denying him.

    I hate that crap!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  12. BJD95 02/28/2009 at 3:01 PM #

    With today’s loss, Georgia Tech has clinched the coveted 12th seed in the ACC tourney. UVA locks up 11th with a loss today (any UVA loss or NC State win the rest of the way will do that, since they lose tiebreakers to both NC State and Maryland).

  13. wufpup76 02/28/2009 at 3:05 PM #

    “Tyler Hansbrough set the NCAA’s career free-throw shooting record in No. 4 North Carolina’s 104-74 rout of Georgia Tech on Saturday.

    He entered having made 899 free throws — six shy of Dickie Hemric’s mark of 905. He tied Hemric with 6:43 left in the first half and broke the record by swishing a foul shot with 14:54 to play — and, in Hansbrough’s typically understated style, appeared oblivious to the record until his accomplishment was announced a few minutes later during a timeout. He hit all eight of his foul shots, giving him a career total of 907.”

    Please Holes fans … by all means keep whining about how the refs and the ACC are making a “determined effort” to limit 50’s trips to the line. He still shoots more free throws THIS SEASON than anyone else in the country – so sure, it makes a ton of sense to complain.

    I’ve NEVER seen a player given more preferential treatment between being allowed to not adhere to traveling rules and being given (that’s right, I said given – not always earned) on average 15+ trips to the line in every game. I’m not saying he’s not a good player, but if you don’t think this kind of crap is a factor then you are a truly blind homer.

    “Hi – I’m Tyler Hansbrough. I’m the nation’s “best” white player and I play for God’s chosen team. You may worship me now, as my underling refs do.”

  14. wufpup76 02/28/2009 at 3:12 PM #

    I’m watching the Wake-UVa game, and the Cavs are hanging in there and playing tough as usual …

    Anyway, I’ve seen more walks called on Aminu for WF in this game than I think I’ve ever seen called on God’s favorite player. (This is only a very minute exaggeration.)

    Aminu does walk about every time he has the ball … as does Hopsbrough. Why is the call made against one player and not the other? I wonder.

  15. redfred2 02/28/2009 at 3:40 PM #

    Last night, my wife had plans involving my middle daughter, so I took my youngest daughter and one of her friends to the movies. Anyway, on the way there we started talking and the little girl, a fifth grader, said that she was a HUGE fan of NC State. She even said her favorite numbers were 41 and 10, as in NCSU 41, unc 10. Furthermore, and on top of all of that, she also said that her parents were BOTH unc grads!!!! I almost lost control of the vehicle! I was having trouble driving, this had to be a dream, uncontrollable tears of joy were whelling up and my eyes were getting misty because this stuff was just TOO GOOD to be true!!!

    Now I ask, is that, or is it not, an inspirational and heart warming tale for a rainy day like today, or what?

    BTW, the movie sucked, but who cares after that little departure into a different dimension. The kids liked it though, and that’s really all that mattered anyway.

  16. wufpup76 02/28/2009 at 3:53 PM #

    ^We need all we all can get redfred, and that is a good story for a rainy day.

    What movie did you see (a kid’s movie)?

  17. MrPlywood 02/28/2009 at 3:59 PM #

    And don’t forget, Cryler also set the record for most free-throws made. pfffft. They showed a replay of Zeller “going up strong”, but they neglected to mention the multiple shuffles he took to get set. Bobby Knight is right – the refs don’t even look anymore.

    Annnnnytravel…

    I don’t know what to make of the MD game. Depends on which squads show up on both sides. I will go with “winnable”.

  18. redfred2 02/28/2009 at 4:04 PM #

    pup, have you ever been just barely bumped when you were going up for a shot, or even when defending another shooter? It throws you off just enough that most of the time you can’t follow through and make the play.

    That’s Tyler Hansbrough’s signature move. He first bumps the defender’s chest with his leading shoulder to offset his equilibrium, then he hops over a few inches shuffling both feet at the same time, and then he SCORES!!! like only HE!!! (and the officials) can do!!!

  19. redfred2 02/28/2009 at 4:09 PM #

    Pup, I’m not going into anymore detail with that one. I’m afraid I might have given my true identity away to a few folks with that last post anyway.

    Hint about movie title though, you could have been in it.

  20. BJD95 02/28/2009 at 5:05 PM #

    UVA vs. Wake was a very well-officiated game. Refs called all the travelling on both teams.

    UVA locked into #11. Sid is guaranteed to at least tie his best ACC finish.

  21. wufpup76 02/28/2009 at 5:32 PM #

    “pup, have you ever been just barely bumped when you were going up for a shot, or even when defending another shooter? It throws you off just enough that most of the time you can’t follow through and make the play.

    That’s Tyler Hansbrough’s signature move. He first bumps the defender’s chest with his leading shoulder to offset his equilibrium, then he hops over a few inches shuffling both feet at the same timtime, and then he SCORES!!! like only HE!!! (and the officials) can do!!!”

    ^And he usually goes to the line for a 3-point play after that.

    ***

    “Pup, I’m not going into anymore detail with that one. I’m afraid I might have given my true identity away to a few folks with that last post anyway.

    Hint about movie title though, you could have been in it.”

    ^Sorry – didn’t mean to pry! (Though I am a fine actor).

  22. inhoc... 02/28/2009 at 5:46 PM #

    i don’t know if any of you just caught the end of the Duke/VT game.

    VT was royally screwed out of what could have been a possession that would have won/sent the game to OT.

    Duke on the inbound passes to singler and is trapped perfectly by two VT players. He has no where to go, and moonwalks for about 5 steps before coach K calls the TO 1/2 a second before they get called for not getting it across the time line at half court….

    the no call would have hugely changed the outcome of the game….

  23. BJD95 02/28/2009 at 5:55 PM #

    The way VT was shooting, they probably would have lost anyway. But it was an inexcusable call. Another “Duke travels 3+ times in 4 seconds” you tube sensation is coming.

  24. turnoffthetv 02/28/2009 at 5:56 PM #

    “i don’t know if any of you just caught the end of the Duke/VT game. ”

    I saw it. Even Jimmy Dykes on a slow motion replay said” There’s 1 walk, 2 walks, 3 walks!!!!” This is a MUST VIEW for those that havent seen it. Maybe ill try to get some video up unless u guys beat me to it. WOW. A great defensive effort by VT that forces an obvious Turnover that wasnt called and VT was only down by 3 when it happened.

    Sorry if this is OFF-TOPIC but U GOTTA see this one!!!!

  25. MrPlywood 02/28/2009 at 6:16 PM #

    Let us know if you’re able to post something. I would love nothing more than to have a wide variety of video evidence to post in response to tiresome UNX and Dook honks…

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