Vegas Oddmakers Are Noticing Russell Wilson

One of the dirty little secrets of college athletics is that people actually bet on games. That’s why points spreads exist. A proper point-spread incents equal betting on both sides of the point-spread and creating a 50/50 proposition (if the oddsmakers get things right). But, sometimes it doesn’t work out that way.  Sometimes the oddsmakers don’t completely account for a special player, and this is the case for NC State’s frosh QB sensation, Russell Wilson.

From the wizofodds.com: 2008 Spreadbeater Offensive Team

The author of two widely acclaimed books and a longtime Las Vegas sports radio personality, Arne K. Lang has written extensively on college football. He is the former Sports Information Coordinator for the Stardust Race and Sports Book and his annual Spreadbeater Team recognizes players whose efforts were instrumental in getting their teams over the hump when the fate of a bet hung in the balance. From the beginning, eligibility was restricted to players on “winning” teams, defined as teams that finished with a winning record against the closing pointspread.

Instead of including players whose muffs and mental mistakes contributed to bad beats. this mythical team accentuates the positive, an approach more concordant with the holiday season. In the first of two installments, here is the defensive unit. The numbers in parentheses are the team’s record against the betting line:

Quarterback Russell Wilson, N.C. State, Fr. (9-2 against the spread)

It was the year of the quarterback, most notably in the Big 12. But hardly anyone outside the Atlantic Coast Conference noticed Wilson, who guided the Wolfpack to seven straight covers, including four outright upsets to close the season. Interception-free during this 7-0 ATS surge, Wilson’s story was more remarkable considering that he was carted off the field with a head injury in his first start and later missed a game because of a shoulder ailment.

Whether or not you approve of gambling, these are some of the most knowledgeable and smartest sports fans on the planet.  If they are noticing Russell Wilson, you can bet your bottom dollar that he’s the real deal.

'08 Football

30 Responses to Vegas Oddmakers Are Noticing Russell Wilson

  1. choppack1 12/18/2008 at 10:53 AM #

    What’s funny is that while they may be noticing, apparently, the bettors aren’t. The spreads for our games have been absurd – and even going into this game vs. Rutgers, we’re 7 point dog (last I heard.)

    As you note, the spreads are somewhat market-driven. The desire is to get money as equally distributed as possible so the sportsbook just makes money on the vig. If the money isn’t balanced, the book can loose its shirt.

    This crap is downright bizarre. You’d think after 7 consecutive covers, you’d see some kind of adjustment – but we’re not. What I am guessing is happening is that market is considering past performance (past performance being 2005 to the first 2 of the first 3 games of 2008.)

  2. BJD95 12/18/2008 at 11:22 AM #

    We started as a 7-point dog to Rutgers, and the line has actually gone up to 8. Given that these are essentially even teams and that State will have more fans in the stadium, can’t say that I understand what’s going on here.

  3. YANCSSB 12/18/2008 at 12:16 PM #

    That we’ve covered 7 straight times, and that Rutgers is getting such great odds, tells you just how far the image of State football has fallen in the national eye.

    They still expect us to lose every game, and in some cases, by a large margin.

    I’d be curious to know State’s record ATS from the 2003 season, when the whole word knew about Philip Rivers and expected us to win every time out. I’d be willing to bet (Heyoh!) that our record ATS at that time was atrocious for the same reason in reverse–we were highly OVER valued as a squad and the bettors out there pushed the spreads in our favor.

    Here’s something I wrote about just such a phenomenon earlier in the year

    It may not be much, but hey, we’ll take it.

  4. Elrod 12/18/2008 at 12:46 PM #

    I love RW’s game and importance as much as anyone, but let’s not overlook another entry in the list.

    Receiver Kenny Britt, Rutgers, Jr. (8-3)

    The Scarlet Knights covered the spot in their last eight games, an astounding turnaround after a dreadful start. Britt was at his best in those games, catching 60 passes for 990 yards. He finished second in the nation in receiving yards per game.

    Perhaps the betting world is informed on both sides. In any event, GO PACK!!

  5. howlie 12/18/2008 at 1:01 PM #

    Of course, they ‘noticed’ the game-&-odds breaking potential of the Rutgers receiver… which put them in an interesting predicament.

  6. packbackr04 12/18/2008 at 1:58 PM #
  7. PackerInRussia 12/18/2008 at 2:36 PM #

    Arne K. Lang

    Isn’t that the name of the song people sing on New Year’s Eve?

  8. cowdog 12/18/2008 at 2:55 PM #

    I broke some major rules this year. Not only was I using money from my unemployment stipend, but was betting with a team that I have emotional ties to.
    Big no-no. But, the lines on State where so juicy that I could not stay off them after what I saw in the BC game.
    With 2 hot teams playing on a neutral field, I saw this game going off at State -2. Seriously.
    We smoked UNC at their house and they smoked Rutgers up there. Granted all three teams are not the same club as when UNC went up to NJ, but Sheridan has been wrong before and I think he got it wrong again.
    We are a really good team right now and with TOB’s approach to this season’s capper, I don’t see us losing.

  9. Gene 12/18/2008 at 3:16 PM #

    More people in New Jersey / New York area being homers, which is why the line favors Rutgers, in my opinion.

    I just don’t think North Carolina has as many people betting on sports as they do in New Jersey.

  10. choppack1 12/18/2008 at 3:43 PM #

    Gene – let’s hope not.

  11. cowdog 12/18/2008 at 3:47 PM #

    Gene, that’s exactly why I figured State going out the fav. To me, the 7 that Rutgers was laying seemed prohibitive to wager on them by the overall gaming community. That line should be moving down after the bowl feeding starts.
    At any rate as Alpha stated, it’s cool that gaming heads have taken note of the Pack’s offensive leader.

  12. BoKnowsNCS71 12/18/2008 at 3:57 PM #

    As of today the line has moved from NCSU getting 6.5 points to 8.5 points (courtesy scoresandodds.com).

    Tells me that most of the money is going to Rutgers (and with Atlantic City in New Jersey it makes sense that they would bet that way). Good odds for the Pack

    Bookies are trying to get betters to put money on the Pack. Understand that the bookies make most of their money on the “juice” – a 10% add on cost to your bet when you lose. And they try to not have all the betting on one side. So if they can get a lot of action — on both sides the still make a nice percentage regardless.

  13. JimValvano 12/18/2008 at 4:01 PM #

    Something interesting I read a little while ago:

    http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Bowl-viewing-for-value-The-lucky-ones-?urn=ncaaf,130084

    PapaJohns.com (Dec. 29, Birmingham)
    • Usual game: Big East also-ran pounds C-USA nobody.
    • This year’s game: Rutgers (–8.5) vs. N.C. State
    “7-5 Big East team vs. 6-6 ACC team” is about as unattractive as it gets in the abstract, but the Knights and Pack happen to have combined for 10 straight wins to close the regular season (six in a row by Rutgers, four for N.C. State) by an average of 20.4 points per game; six of those 10 wins were over other eventual bowl teams, including shocking routs of South Florida (which Rutgers hammered 49-16 on Nov. 15) and North Carolina (a 41-10 cruise for the Wolfpack the following week). Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel went from a 3:7 touchdown:interception ratio through his team’s 1-5 start to a 20:5 ratio over the six-game winning streak, with at least three touchdown passes in four of the last five and an unreal 220.3 efficiency rating over the last month; Wilson hasn’t been picked off since mid-September and won every all-ACC and all-freshman award he was up for.

    Put it this way: If the odds on a new season were issued right now, this would be the projected Orange Bowl game instead of Virginia Tech-Cincinnati.

    http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Bowl-viewing-for-value-The-lucky-ones-?urn=ncaaf,130084

  14. choppack1 12/18/2008 at 4:20 PM #

    BKN – in Vegas it’s called a processing fee 🙂

  15. cowdog 12/18/2008 at 4:51 PM #

    Actually Bo, the vig is payed win or lose. 11 to make 10. But I am really surprised that the betting community would have jumped on the 6.5 like that. I still would have seen the attraction for State going out a slight favorite to both gambling sides, working this game closer to a push.
    Guess that’s why I’m not a bird dog in Vegas after all these years.
    Not complaining about the line. Looks damn good to me.

  16. SidtheKid 12/18/2008 at 4:52 PM #

    “Put it this way: If the odds on a new season were issued right now, this would be the projected Orange Bowl game instead of Virginia Tech-Cincinnati.”

    Thats from the yahoo sports NCAA Football Blog (Talking about our Bowl Game), a different kind of odds but I think we are being noticed for what we did in November.

  17. bradleyb123 12/18/2008 at 4:57 PM #

    “Bookies are trying to get betters to put money on the Pack. Understand that the bookies make most of their money on the “juice” – a 10% add on cost to your bet when you lose.”

    You mean it is the 10% added onto the cost of your bet when you win, right? That’s the house advantage. When you lose, you lose 100% of the bet. When you win, you win 90% of what you bet (that’s 100% minus the 10% “juice”).

  18. choppack1 12/18/2008 at 5:29 PM #

    I guess – it’s like the opposite if how it was done, ummm, when I was in school. (The vig was only applied to the loss or tie.)

  19. bradleyb123 12/18/2008 at 5:34 PM #

    I could be wrong. I’m talking about how it works in Vegas. Maybe local bookies do it differently. I’ve never heard of losing 10% more than what you bet when you lose a bet.

  20. cowdog 12/18/2008 at 6:15 PM #

    Legal sports betting when wagering the line is an 11-10 proposition.
    When you purchase your ticket the vigorish is of course payed up front and never recovered win, lose or push.
    Bookie wagering is the same proposition, except since you are not usually putting front money up, the vig is forfeited on a loss .

  21. Sw0rdf1sh 12/18/2008 at 11:10 PM #

    I love the word “Vig”. it makes me want to punch a Rutgers fan in the mouf.

    (jk, I like to bang in the box but I’m a nice guy)

  22. BoKnowsNCS71 12/19/2008 at 6:53 AM #

    Guess it differs from crowd to crowd. I’ve always heard it as the “juice” but Vig works just as well. And it’s applied when you lose. As Cow dog said — bet $110 to win $100 and lose = pay $110. Bet $110 and win and you get $100 plus your original $110.

    Or you could parlay it for the -8.5 and take the over or under and pay no vig. Riskier bet but it pays about 2 1/2 to 1.

    But let Vegas be Vegas. What really amazes me is how often the numbers they come up with statistically are so close – especial for points scored. Personally, I think the Pack will win. This Rutgers team came out of the gates poorly when they lost to UNC early on and like us — they got their groove on now. So it should be close — no matter what. I just hope the guys stay focused and aren’t just glad to be there.

  23. cowdog 12/19/2008 at 8:12 AM #

    Bo, I’ve been to Vegas nearly 30 times over the years. Three hour drive from the old homestead in Socal. You’d think that I’d know what the f@@k I was talkin’ about when it comes to the ” juice.”

    Well, after I posted, I knew that I had erred.
    So, for the sake of any newbies wishing to partake in the risk…vig is returned on a win or a push. 10% is applied only on a loss. This is for both legal and illegal forms of wagering.

    If one is going to Las Vegas, parlays can vary from casino to casino as well as the spread or money lines. Always consult your local bookmaker.

    This has been a public service address brought to you by the good people of SFN and should be used for educational purposes only.

    ( Pack 30 – 24 )

  24. lush 12/19/2008 at 8:59 AM #

    from Pat Forde on ESPN:

    “Why watch: To see two of the hottest teams in the country and two quarterbacks at the opposite ends of the college-experience spectrum — Rutgers senior Mike Teel in his last game versus NC State freshman Russell Wilson. This is the most interesting game in this bowl’s three-year history.

    40-second analysis: The Wolfpack have won four straight, the last three against bowl teams. The Scarlet Knights have won six straight, the last five of them all by 18 points or more. Rutgers’ offense has scored 30 or more in five straight games after failing to score more than 23 points against FBS competition through the first seven games. That’s a reflection on Teel’s improved play, while the Pack have responded to freshman Wilson down the stretch.

    Dash pick: Rutgers 42, North Carolina State 27.”

    can anyone understand this line after reading his write-up???

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