Let’s look at some objective evidence to see if we can figure out why Vegas has the Heels as a 12.5 point favorite. Here are a few tables summarizing the national rankings to see how the two offenses match up against the two defenses:
I first started looking at the relevant stats when one of our readers commented that UNC was living and dying with turnovers. As the two highlighted numbers show, the UNC scoring offense and defense rankings are not in line with the other key stat categories. UNC currently ranks 8th in the nation in turnover margin which pretty well explains this discrepancy.
So it should be easy to see that one of the keys to the game is that Russell Wilson continues to make good decisions with the ball and the Wolfpack ball carriers need to hang onto to the ball.
Frankly, I was surprised to see that UNC’s offensive numbers weren’t any better. That just goes to show how watching a limited number of games can sometimes distort your view of a team.
UNC VS OTHER STATE OPPONENTS
Now let’s compare UNC to some of the teams that State has played over the last several weeks:
Here are some conclusions that I have reached:
– UNC isn’t significantly better than any of these teams.
– Looking at these stats makes me wonder why the UMD win over the Heels was considered an upset.
– I don’t bet on sports, but I see nothing here that suggests that UNC should win by more than say FSU or BC.
– Sad to say, but the stats also clearly show that UNC should be favored to win, especially since the game is in Chapel Hill.
UNC IN THE FOURTH QUARTER
Looking at UNC’s three losses, I found a few interesting tidbits:
– UNC led all three games through three quarters, but couldn’t close out the games.
– UNC lost the turnover battle in all three games.
I’m sure that the conclusions from these two tid-bits are obvious to all of our readers.
The UVA game was especially interesting (at least to me). I was tied up all day, missing the UMD/State game and the majority of the UNC/UVA game. I got home just in time to watch the last five minutes or so of regulation and then OT. My son and I were literally laughing about how the UNC coaches were trying to lose that game. In case you missed it, here is the summary from the end of regulation:
Setting:
UNC gets the ball leading 7-3 with 9:51 left in the game. UNC marches down the field chewing up the clock until the reach the UVA 20 yard line. The offense stalls and they settle for a field goal to go up 10-3.
After the kickoff, UVA starts on its own 18 yard line with 2:18 left in regulation. Up until this point in the game, UVA has managed a total of 3 points and 135 yards of total offense:
Butch may be a great recruiter, but no one is going to convince me that he is a great coach.
KEYS TO THE GAME
I wish that I had some really insightful keys to the game that would open your eyes; but everything I have found should be obvious to nearly any knowledgeable State fan:
– State’s offense needs to continue to produce as well as it did against similar and even better ACC defenses.
– State’s defense needs to keep a close watch on Hakeem Nicks. With 911 receiving yards, he is the ACC’s best WR and is currently tied for 17th nationally.
– UNC’s offensive line is nothing special. Their rushing attack is a whole 16 yards per game better than State’s and both teams are tied nationally at 73rd in sacks allowed. One of the ways to keep Nicks in check is to keep pressure on the QB…and not allow Nicks time to run through State’s secondary.
– State needs to hold onto to the ball. When UNC doesn’t win the turnover battle, they have a hard time winning.
– UNC has had problems closing out games in the fourth quarter. If State can keep it close, then those jerseys might start feeling a little tight around the neck in the fourth quarter.
– I didn’t watch UNC play GT or BC; but I’m sure that State’s coaches have. So whatever those two teams did on defense against UNC…do something different.
