Writing on the wall for JJ; Look to Big Ced for example (May 7th Update)

May 1, 2008
The writing may be the wall for JJ Hickson. As NC State fans people who genuinely want to see JJ Hickson maximize his earnings and succeed for years to come; we can only hope that the young man is mature enough to ‘read the wall’ objectively ans execute the kind of decision-making-skills needed to insure a bright future for the young man.

Before the recent onslaught of announcements by dozens of highly rated underclassment, Hickson was projected by many to be a second round draft choice in this summer’s NBA Draft. The impact of all of these underclassment has certainly not helped Hickson’s cause.

A recent spate of articles from various pundits all echo an indentical sentiment – JJ Hickson definitely needs to come back to school for at least one more year. And these articles aren’t just ‘throw away’ mentions; Hickson’s decision to potentially leave early is being specifically identified as one of the biggest mistakes of all of the early decisions.

Just this week ESPN’s Chad Ford said:

I love Hickson’s game, but the draft is so crowded. He’d be better off going back to school, dominating for a year and then testing the waters as a sophomore.

Of course, any and all of this ‘guidance’ may be irrelevant if JJ is committed to entering the NBA Draft come hell or high water…and, that seems to be the case. The comments under JJ’s name on CBS Sportsline’s tracking of the early entrants says:

Nobody was in more of a hurry to get to the NBA than this guy.

IMHO, the real crux of the issue for Hickson should have much more to do with his potential longetivity in the NBA – and therefore long term earning power – than his ability to make some money as early as possible.

Wolfpackers probably recognize this ‘balance’ more than most fan bases based on recent developments in career of Cedric Simmons. After being ‘projected’ to be drafted closer to #10, Simmons was selected HIGHER than Hickson is projected at a solid #15 just two years ago. Simmons was projected to be such a solid choice that the Hornets’ draft received rave reviews. (See how these ‘projections’ work out?)

Simmons is now on his third NBA roster in just two years. As #15 draft selection in 2006 he by-passed significant developmental, practice and playing experiences over the last two years in exchange for starting in four games and appearing in only 57 games. To this point in his career Simmons has played in less than 600 minutes of NBA games. By contrast, JJ Hickson played almost 900 minutes in his first collegiate season.

It should be noted that Simmons has dealt with some injuries since joining the league. But that is part of the risk of jumping to the league before your skills are ready just as the risk of getting injured in college is always cited.

The injuries caused Big Ced to spend time in the NBA’s Developmental League in Iowa to help him rehabilitate and get into shape (since NBA teams don’t practice enough for young players to get into shape or develop) A ‘pro’ basketball stint in Iowa surely was not on the radar for any potential lottery pick coming out of college. That had to suck. But, when you don’t get significant playing time in the NBA because you are young and still developing, how else do you get the chance to shake off the rust?

Unfortunately, these developments seem to indicate that Simmons is already evolving into the part of “NBA Journeyman”. Guess what? NBA Journeymen don’t make tens of millions of dollars. They also don’t make it in the league long enough to make that kind of money because there are always dozens of ‘youngsters’ coming out early who are a little younger and may have just enough ‘potential’.

As a player in the NBA you have one of two different abilities that are valuable to a franchise: (1) you contribute, or (2) you have potential. If you ‘fall in the bucket of ‘having potential’ then you better get yourself into the contributing category as fast as you can who those youngsters quickly take your spot on the end of the bench.

In the NBA, youngsters who are bench players early in their career – as big men often are – rarely develop their game as they would in college because of the limited practice schedule. Due to the 82-game schedule, NBA squads travel and play games much more than they practice. Therefore, the opportunity for young players with ‘potential’ to develop in truly competitive environments is limited. Ultimately, these kids make a few million bucks in their first three years and then their ability to make tens of millions of dollars for the money for the next decade is significantly impaired.

Of course, there is always the risk of ‘injury’ even if the frequency of career ending injuries in basketball is exceptionally low. This is why insurance policies exist. Insurance proceeds certainly won’t make-up the difference in tens of millions of dollars through a career that lasts more than a decade; but, we aren’t talking about someone who is currently projected or guaranteed that kind of career to begin with. Look at Big Ced to see how early-career injuries in the NBA can create equal risk on your future.

The best route to achieving a long-term career and the exceptional pay-day that comes with it just may require the ‘risk’ of another developmental year in college for JJ Hickson. Whatever his ultimate decision, we would all want nothing more than to see an unlimited amount of success for the young man.

Parting shot – From the NC State perspective, if JJ Hickson were to return for his sophomore season, I truly believe that the Wolfpack could be just as big of a surprise in 2008-2009 as we were a disappointment in 2007-2008. Only time will tell…but the pieces are there for signficant improvement as long as the team can remain relatively healthy.

Updated May 7th
Hickson’s decision ranked one of the five worst in all of college basketball by rivals.com. (Isn’t “The Wolfpacker” part of Rivals.com? Just curious…how do the Wolfpack Club and Athletics Department NOT view such an article as ‘negative’ like they do SFN? All we are doing is reporting what they are saying…yet WE are ‘negative’?!)

F J.J. Hickson, N.C. State
Stats: 14.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 1.5 bpg

If given the choice, you never want to go into the draft with your stock slipping. That is the case with Hickson, a 6-9 freshman. He got off to an impressive start, averaging 16.5 points per game in November and December. But that dropped to 12.5 in conference play. The Wolfpack’s struggles didn’t help, either. They lost their last nine games and finished with more losses (16) than wins (15). Hickson is projected as a borderline first-round pick, but if he stays in school and makes some improvements, he will be a first-round lock next year.

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66 Responses to Writing on the wall for JJ; Look to Big Ced for example (May 7th Update)

  1. Noah 05/07/2008 at 11:47 AM #

    I’ve never heard anything that indicates Hickson will be back. Everything I’ve heard (from five different sources) has said he’s leaving.

  2. kyjelly 05/07/2008 at 11:51 AM #

    Who cares really ,it is time to move on with this whole group .JJ,Sid,Lee………Thank the lord TOB fell in our laps.

  3. Bynum State Fan 05/07/2008 at 12:15 PM #

    JJ Hickson needs to stay one more year, if only for the sake of us being able to beat the (King of the ACC) Duke. I do believe he will get to the free throw line more in the NBA as current ACC officials have a love fest for Duke Basketball. Also, Sidney, coming from a team that knew how to get it done, played extremely physical (to the point that other teams feared them at all times). Sidney needs to instill this type of temperment and determination into Hickson. If you can remember, that early-mid 80’s crop of State players didn’t fear anything. If you fouled them, they were going to repay you, regardless of what that meant & how it would affect the team. You just didn’t mess with those guys. We need to get our bigs to have that type of fight & love for the team. Given Sidney’s reputation (and those close to him), I expect if given a few years, He’ll get it done too.

  4. Bynum State Fan 05/07/2008 at 12:17 PM #

    Also, we should have went after Tyreke Evans, he’s a good baller who would fit very well into the NC State “system”

  5. PackMan97 05/07/2008 at 12:36 PM #

    I’ve never said that JJ would be the next “insert young super star”, only that is the reason the NBA continues to take the chance on young players even though they may be harming their own (and the players) future.

  6. Trip 05/07/2008 at 1:02 PM #

    “Lorenzo Brown’s latest statements have him already talking about going pro early.”

    Good luck with that, shooting guards are almost never EVER taken in the first round right out of high school unless they are Kobe-like. From what I’ve read on him, he’s no where near that yet. This is ridiculous.

    Anyway. I think JJ should do the pre-draft camp, see where he falls there, if he’s a lock for first round, goodbye. If not, come back next year and say hello to the lottery.

  7. Bynum State Fan 05/07/2008 at 3:16 PM #

    JJneeds to come back like Shackleford and Washburn and show the ACC world who’s for real!

  8. beowolf 05/07/2008 at 4:51 PM #

    Hmmm…

  9. redfred2 05/08/2008 at 11:55 AM #

    I think he could use at least another year, I’d alos like to see him back, but I won’t shed any tears if he’s gone. I also will not follow him on the next level or claim him in his professional career. Just one season of halfway decent BB doesn’t make him, or any other kid for that matter, feel like they’re part of the family.

  10. kyjelly 05/08/2008 at 11:57 AM #

    Bynum State Fan: it is all I goof you speak of correct?

  11. happypackdad 05/08/2008 at 12:41 PM #

    ^^ That’s kind of harsh fred isn’t it? JJ should be part of the NCSU family because he told NCSU he’d leave early unlike others that left early & didn’t get drafted in the 1st round.

  12. happypackdad 05/08/2008 at 12:43 PM #

    Ben + Costner playing well together might be > JJ

  13. SMD 05/08/2008 at 1:07 PM #

    Dave Glenn (I know…I know…) had a great point on this topic yesterday.

    How is the decision to “test the waters” stupid? Actually coming out may be stupid depending on where you are forecast to go. But if you’ve all but said you’re only staying two years anyway, what is wrong with getting a read on where you might go this year?

    If he goes to the camp in Orlando and turns some heads, who knows? But again, testing the waters is a different decision than actually coming out.

  14. packbackr04 05/08/2008 at 2:15 PM #

    Billy Gillespie just picked up a commitment from a 4 yr old. so, you know, he has that going for him…. which is nice.

  15. redfred2 05/08/2008 at 4:51 PM #

    “That’s kind of harsh fred isn’t it? JJ should be part of the NCSU family because he told NCSU he’d leave early unlike others that left early & didn’t get drafted in the 1st round.”

    May be, but I don’t really know what the kid is like based on the short time frame and what he did while in Raleigh. If he can’t see that his stock has slipped to that of a a marginal first rounder, and if he was dead set on making the leap at the very first opportunity regardless, then I don’t feel that there’s too much of an attachment either way.

    You’ll probably say I’m full of it, but I’d like to see him come back more for his own sake than that of the team’s.

  16. PackGirl 05/09/2008 at 5:01 PM #

    According to a couple of the major mock draft sites, JJ has slipped completely out of the draft at this point. He better really dazzle them at the pre-draft camp or he’s not going anywhere.

    tp://www.collegehoopsnet.com/Draft/mockdraft.htm
    http://www.nbadraft.net/

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