100 Years of NC State Basketball by the Numbers: Sidney Lowe

As we celebrate 100 years of NC State basketball tradition, it can be interesting to take a look back at our heritage and make comparisons with the current program. Over the last century, there have been 18 head basketball coaches, 13 of which coached in either the Southern Conference or the ACC. Currently Sidney Lowe has the 2nd worst conference winning percentage of any coach in NC State basketball history and the worst since the inception of the Southern Conference in the early 1920s.

Harry Hartsell coached the first 2 seasons in which NC State was a member of the Southern Conference from 1922-1923 and had a conference record of 2-7 (.222).

After the Virginia Tech loss on Wednesday, Sidney Lowe fell below Les Robinson and has the 2nd worst conference winning percentage in school history with an ACC record of 17-41 (.293).

Below is a table of the conference winning percentages of the 13 NC State coaches that coached in the Southern Conference and/or the ACC.
sid table 1

The argument has been made time and time again that it takes 4 years for a coach to get his own players in the program and shouldn’t be judged until after that time (although coaches like Tony Bennett and Bob Huggins would certainly disagree with that theory). So let’s look at how the other former State coaches did under similar circumstances. Nine of the 13 coaches listed above were on the job for at least 4 seasons. If you look at conference winning percentage for their first 4 years, Sidney Lowe has the worst record of any coach in the history of NC State basketball.

sid table 2

An interesting observation, since Norm Sloan finished at .500 in ACC play in his first 4 years, the winning percentage for each following coach gets a little bit worse. At this rate, Lowe’s successor will only win a couple of ACC games in his first 4 years.
Sloan – .500
Valvano – .411
Robinson – .339
Sendek – .328
Lowe – .293

If you look at the situations recent coaches inherited, Robinson took over a program on probation that was coming off a scandal and had increased academic standards (but did inherit Monroe, Corchiani and Gugliotta). Lowe inherited a program that had been to 5 straight NCAA tournaments (and inherited Atsur, Costner, Fells and McCauley). Lowe also coached in an ACC watered down by expansion and, in my opinion, an ACC with a lower talent level across the league than in the early to mid 90s. Even Herb Sendek, who is certainly not the most popular coach here at SFN, took over a program from Robinson that hadn’t been to the postseason in 5 years (inheriting Benjamin, Harrison, Hyatt and Strong) and still had a better ACC record than Lowe in their first 4 years.

Sidney Lowe also has the worst conference winning percentage of any of the 12 ACC coaches in their first 4 years at the school. The only ACC coach to not win at least 7 conference games in their 4th year on the job was Gary Williams. We would have to win 5 out of our 6 remaining ACC games for Lowe to reach 7 wins in his 4th season.

sid table 3

And since I’m piling on Lowe’s coaching record, with a record of 79-228 (.257) for the Timberwolves and Grizzlies he also has the lowest winning percentage in the history of the NBA of anyone who coached at least 300 games. The only other 2 coaches that coached 300 games and have a winning percentage below .300 are Tim Floyd (post-Jordan/Phil Jackson Chicago Bulls) and Ron Rothstein (expansion Miami Heat).

While comparisons across eras are not always appropriate or accurate, Sidney Lowe has the 2nd worst career conference record of any coach that has coached at NC State (and the worst record since the inception of the Southern Conference in the early 1920s). Lowe also has the lowest conference winning percentage in his first 4 years of any coach in the ACC and in the 100 year history of NC State basketball. And right now, history is all we have to brag about.

About WV Wolf

Graduated from NCSU in 1996 with a degree in statistics. Born and inbred in West "By God" Virginia and now live in Raleigh where I spend my time watching the Wolfpack, the Mountaineers and the Carolina Hurricanes as well as making bar graphs for SFN. I'm @wvncsu on the Twitter machine.

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81 Responses to 100 Years of NC State Basketball by the Numbers: Sidney Lowe

  1. Class of 2009 02/12/2010 at 12:12 AM #

    This is a true dipstick for our athletic program as much as Lowe. When trying to gage a program’s relevance in the current athletic climate, I think cross-era comparisons are COMPLETELY valid.

    NC State basketball is a complete joke. Move out of ACC territory and ask someone when the last time they saw a block ‘S’ during basketball season and they’ll ask you if you’re talking about Stanford. Our basketball program seems to have reached the point that after 100 years, it’s time to just wipe what we have completely clean and build over again. Unfortunately, that takes a rare type of coach. To discover those types of coaches, it takes a highly talented AD.

    Regardless, I think this analysis doesn’t take into account the circumstances around Lowe that were NOT in her favor. He accepted his position after Lee Fowler had spent months longer than needed securing a coach (i.e., Sid had little time to establish a foundation for the program). That makes his results as of the first year shaky at best. If you are going to say that Lowe coached in an expanded ACC whose top performers (Carolina and Duke) are not performing on top of their game, particularly this season, I think that is neglecting the sum-total of the ACC. Carolina is terrible this year, but the ACC has 5 team in the top 60 RPI rankings (in theory, 5 teams that are tournament level). Two of those teams are ranked (Duke and GT) and three others received votes in the AP poll (five in the Coaches Poll).

    I’m not saying that Lowe isn’t producing wins, which is his primary purpose at NC State. However, I am saying that crying to twist the knife by saying “Lowe is worse than any other NC State coach… and he has it easier than these other coaches” just isn’t true. Did he come into a program with 5 tourney appearances? Yes. Did he come in to an expanded conference? Yes. Is the ACC “easier” right now than it was 35 years ago? I think that is the one place that the “cross-era” analysis breaks down. There are simply too many factors that go into “harder conference-easier conference” arguments than what the numbers can cover (i.e. conference rule changes, athlete talent levels, competing OOC programs jockeying for conference recruits, etc…).

  2. D_Medlin 02/12/2010 at 12:24 AM #

    Just a warning to those who will comment on this…be careful. If you don’t add something to the discussion, your comment will be deleted.

  3. Manu Ginobili 02/12/2010 at 1:05 AM #

    This is a great post. This should be sent to the new chancellor, and copy Lee Fowler on it. Just copy him, don’t even make him the main recipient. And maybe send it to the Technician editor, the News & Observer, etc.

  4. Wolfy__79 02/12/2010 at 1:16 AM #

    looking back, i think hwsnbn was a decent move considering where the program was coming from. i never really liked what i saw, but he was able to atleast make things respectable after several years, with duke/unc-ch being the exceptions. i was a little young to really analyze what was going on when les took the job.. it seemed to me that he was a decent AD. the entire ACC is miles away from the bball enjoyed growing up. as for NCSU bball, it has continued to get worse. i see good in about EVERY situation.

    it is easy to compare sid and les, especially with the nature of their hires. they both were basically given the job. it was clear that hwsnbn couldn’t compete at the level the ACC was heading towards with unc-ch bringing ol roy in paired with k and league expansion. i assumed that there would need to be rebuilding, i never really cared for the type of play nor some of the types of players we recruited. seriously, how many mediocre pf’s can you recruit to shoot three’s. now we are down to one, and a young flock that shows alot of promise for their 2nd and/or 3rd years. its still plainly obvious that we’ve still got a long row to hoe.

    these numbers certainly don’t lie, they actually dull the feeling i get/carryover from games. i know the numbers are bad, these numbers can be both relevant/irrelevant pending your argument. i find it very hard to compare teams from 50 years ago to those today.. maybe even 30 yrs ago. there is more competition for the elite players and add the 1&done syndrome(this isnt an excuse for the current situation). i think its safe to look back 25 years to compare situations, coincedently one could argue that this is around the same time where things got out of hand. recruiting problems, v having personal problems..

    i never really saw sidney lowe as a long term hire. more or less a fill in, stop off or whatever to help the situation. at the very least i thought he would leave it in better shape than when he got here. i think the majority of nc state fans saw that hwsnbn wasn’t going anywhere after a long stint. after four years, my expectations of sid can still be reached. everyone is harping on next season’s class, i am too. but i will aslo say that he isn’t helping himself with his approach to coaching. per his talent, i think he reaches over their heads/ablity with his “style” of play. back to the recruits, i think they would be more suitable for this style of play.. but that could take a while to develope. IMO, a coach should adapt the strategy to what he has to work with. there are so many stubborn coaches who cannot adapt to the tools they have, f.e. k, roy! coach k has learned to make a few adjustments.. but he doesn’t normally have trouble getting who he wants. its so hard to fully disect the current situation b/c there are so many angles to view it. all would be remedied with wins.

    its hard to really say it has all been the athletic dept, if you ride thru campus.. you’ve got the old part and then you have the new additions. things seem to be coming together a little better now. but it is like the culture at NCSU has been stagnate for a while.

  5. Avid109 02/12/2010 at 6:08 AM #

    I just wonder what sort of coach it would take to make our program an ACC title contender again. Would any “name” coaches want to lead our program given the state it’s in right now? Finding an up-and-coming coach from a smaller school would probably be more likely to work, but finding one who is a good “fit” is not easy to do.

  6. Broccoman 02/12/2010 at 6:13 AM #

    I still think taking a chance on a proven game coach like Nolan Richardson would be a good short-term bet. Bobby Knight would be good, just for scaring the refs into fairness. He wouldn’t last one season in the ACC though.

    other then that, there are plenty of good mid-major coaches who might work.

    As for Sid, he’s a good asst.coach, not a head coach.

  7. BJD95 02/12/2010 at 7:28 AM #

    The numbers are quite damning, and certainly consistent with what I’ve seen and discerned subjectively. Having been at NC State from 1991-95, I find it hard to imagine that one could have a head coach worse than Les Robinson (even factoring in the academic restrictions). Yet here we are.

    NC State still has all the necessary ingredients to be a successful program. It will be an attractive opportunity for the right coach, provided that village idiot Lee Fowler isn’t within a mile of the search process.

  8. coachkoh 02/12/2010 at 7:59 AM #

    Either get rid of Fowler as well or keep him away from the search and selection process of Sids replacement. But we all wished Sid would succeed ,but it did not happen and his body of work is dreadful. It is time to cut Sid lose.

  9. packfan03 02/12/2010 at 8:04 AM #

    “The numbers are quite damning”

    Agreed, but daming for the program in general – not just Lowe. Our best four years of a starting coach since ’81 yields four more wins than Lowe. This is upsetting, collectively. On a comparative individual scale, I don’t think it’s reason to get upset.

    Again, the ‘state’ of NC State athletics is the larger issue here. It’s great to see these statistics laid out – very informative, thanks!

  10. Wisc-Wolf 02/12/2010 at 8:04 AM #

    Keep in mind the program Willaims inherited at Maryland which was still suffering from the Len Bias scandal. Without a doubt Lowe came into a better situation. Also Robinson was under recruiting restrictions and heightened academic standards where players would be eligible at any other ACC school except for State.

  11. tuckerdorm1983 02/12/2010 at 8:04 AM #

    i know this isn’t popular, but I am willing to give him another year. Call me crazy, call me insane.

  12. Rochester 02/12/2010 at 8:11 AM #

    I’d be interested to see breakdowns on rankings as to defense, offense, rebounding, etc. I think those will also tell a story, especially the defensive numbers, as we don’t seem to value defense.

  13. packfan03 02/12/2010 at 8:37 AM #

    Rochester, check http://www.backingthepack.com for thoughtful statistical analysis. I don’t mean to steer traffic away from this site – but there is generally good info there regarding our team’s performance, statistically measured.

  14. Wulfpack 02/12/2010 at 8:41 AM #

    I think ACC teams are something like 40-25 in the NCAA Tournament in the last five years. However, if you take UNC and Duke out of the equation there, the record dips to 22-20. In short, the ACC has not been a factor on a national scale the last five years (obviously, UNC is the exception with 2 national titles and a Final Four appearance). I think we’re seeing the same thing this year. The Big East, Big 12 and Big Ten (to an extent) have surpassed us.

    I’m not saying this to point the finger at Lowe or anyone else. It’s a problem conference-wide. But we haven’t done anything at all to help, and what’s worse, we haven’t capitalized on the overall down play in the league. Again, not passing blame — there’s plenty of it to go around — just providing a little perspective of the bigger picture.

  15. packfan03 02/12/2010 at 8:46 AM #

    “Keep in mind the program Willaims inherited at Maryland which was still suffering from the Len Bias scandal. Without a doubt Lowe came into a better situation. Also Robinson was under recruiting restrictions and heightened academic standards where players would be eligible at any other ACC school except for State.”

    One thing I’ve had a really difficult time doing, is measuring our teams performance from a coaching standpoint. There are several times EVERY game where I watch a well executed set produce a wide open layup, or shot, only to see our team miss CONSISTENTLY.

    Conversely, there are several times EVERY game when I wonder what the heck Sid is doing with his substitution patterns. Also, the pass-it-around-the-perimiter strategy frustrates me to no end.

    I’m not sure if I can accurately state whether or not Sid is a good coach at this point. I am sold on Sidney’s ability to evaluate talent and recruit – which is why I’m interested in one more season.

  16. EdMar 02/12/2010 at 8:48 AM #

    Excellent work WV Wolf!

    Let’s see, it took O’Brien two days to find a linebacker coach. I know that any good Head Coach, Athletic Director or Manager has a list of replacement candidates (succession list) for any of his staff members. I guess LF had never heard of that four years ago. Do you think maybe he has learned and he might be ready this time?

    The 2010 McDonald’s High School All-American team has been announced, UNC has 3, Duke 1. Leslie is in it. Remember Duke also gets the Curry kid next year, Wake is getting good players, etc…

    Things will not get any easier for Lowe.

  17. GAWolf 02/12/2010 at 8:55 AM #

    I’m convinced that the NBA and NCAA Basketball are such totally different beasts that the records of one have zero reflection of how that coach would do in the other. With that said, there’s certainly not much room for hope here.

    I just think you’re comparing rotten apples (NBA) to sweet sweet oranges. Especially from a “what the coach has to do to succeed” perspective. College coaches have to coach and improve players. NBA coaches have to manage personalities and egos. Obviously there’s a little carry over from each to the other, but the only primary similarity that is hard and fast the same is the third need in a coach which is to game plan effectively.

    Just my opinion… and I must give this disclaimer: I despise the NBA and refuse to watch a second of it.

  18. DRW 02/12/2010 at 9:03 AM #

    Seems to be an extremely stinging indictment of Sidney Lowe, and by association, Lee Foulup.

    If you are a manager looking objectively at those kind of numbers, your course of action would be clear, Lowe would be fired after this season. But, alas, we don’t have good managers at NCSU.

  19. DRW 02/12/2010 at 9:04 AM #

    Tucker: You’re insane. 😉

  20. Ed89 02/12/2010 at 9:21 AM #

    I am too, then. I agree with Tucker. Let him get his guards in here. Next year’s starting line-up.

    Harrow
    Brown
    Leslie
    Howell
    Smith

    First off the bench: Wood, Cothron, Javi, Davis
    Seconds off the bench: Painter, Vandy, CJW

    I also think Cothron could EASILY beat out Howell (if he doesn’t get in better shape), where we could start 4 freshmen.

  21. tuckerdorm1983 02/12/2010 at 9:25 AM #

    Its very hard to type with the straight jacket on. I do it with my teeth. These padded walls help a great deal to keep me from hurting myself when we lose. Gotta go. Nurse Ratched is saying its time for my Thorazine and Shock treatments. Ha-ha-ha-HAA-ha! Ha-ha-ha-HAA-ha! HA HA HA HA HA!!!! Giggty GOO!!! I am taking extra treatments in preparation for Saturday.

  22. Clarksa 02/12/2010 at 9:26 AM #

    “Numbers” don’t always explain everything. Coach Lowe was put in an impossible situation, made some mistakes that have made the situation worse, and is trying to work his way out of a very deep hole.

  23. coachkoh 02/12/2010 at 9:28 AM #

    ^ I will ask this question ,in Sids tenure has any player gotten any better? Leslie is not coming here I am afraid.

  24. daughtry 02/12/2010 at 9:38 AM #

    Sidney Lowe is the first coach not to have the home court advantage of Reynolds in his first four years. That is huge. Even in NC State’s worst years, the Reynolds atmosphere won us games.

    I am excited to see what the team looks like next year, and even more excited to see 2011-2012, as our current freshmen and next year’s freshman take over the minutes and develop as players.

    In my opinion, if you want an immediate change in win/loss records… moving all games to Reynolds would have a much larger impact than any change in coach.

  25. Wisc-Wolf 02/12/2010 at 9:38 AM #

    What impossible situation was Lowe put into.

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