Q: WHY NOW? A: Mike Montgomery?
Last night we updated you on some of the credibile information in the high volume of things that we have been hearing.
As we mentioned last night, The Wolfpacker reported on their message boards that a couple of coaches that had informal contact with NC State during this process have been told that State’s job is no longer vacant. We have re-confirmed this with more of the coaching names now. When you add this to the intensification of “chatter� that of the last 48 hours, then obviously reasons exist to believe that the coaching search is coming to an end. We would hope before the weekend.
We think that the KEY QUESTION that needs to be analyzed is – WHY NOW?
This is where we think that you will find your answer to the question of, “Who will be NC State’s next basketball coach?
Yesterday, the name Dereck Whittenburg rose to the surface. Although we like Whitt, and we think that if Whitt continues to succeed as he has been succeeding that he will one day be a very strong candidate for the job, we can’t imagine Whitt getting hired as the head coach in the next couple of days. Why would we have waited? Why NOW?
There is NO WAY that Lee Fowler can waltz Whittenburg into a press conferece on day 20 of the search and introduce a guy that he could have had 11 days earlier and 2 minutes after Calipari said no. No way that this can happen. If this happens, then Lee Fowler would be the most incompetent AD in America. We’ve had our criticisms of Fowler, but we don’t think that he could misunderstand this process that poorly.
So…WHY NOW?
We have two theories that have been backed up with some smoke this week that deserve consideration:
(1) Rick Barnes still in play.
Is this one getting old? Of course, we wanted to believe this when we heard a few times through the week. It made some sense when you consider that:
* (a) Barnes hasn’t reportedly signed his new contract at UT
* (b) Texas’ annual basketball awards dinner was earlier this week (and there were rumors that Rick wanted to still be his kids coach on that night,
* (c) Pack Pride reported yesterday that the name that they had heard the most about in the last 24 hours was Barnes.
* (d) People turned their attention to John Calipari’s candidacy on the weekend that it was reported (by Caulton Tudor on Friday) that Barnes had not yet said no to NC State. It was reported that Barnes was going to sign his new contract in Austin, but Wolfpackers dropped the focus on Barnes after the contract announcement and while State was obviously pursuing Calipari.
As ‘dramatic’ as this alternative may be (dovetailing nicely with Dave Glenn’s blog entry yesterday), it may not be necessarily plausible. The later in the week that we get from Monday night’s Texas Basketball Banquet, the less likely the Barnes scenario has legs.
(2) Mike Montgomery of the Golden State Warriors
We told you very early in the search that Lee Fowler was very high on Mike Montgomery. At the time, we didn’t necessarily think that Montgomery’s name should have been discussed ahead of Barnes and Calipari…but, after making a play for Barnes/Calipari then why not re-examine where Montgomery fits compared to other candidates?
A case can definitely be made that Montgomery has the best resume of any candidate whom State has interviewed:
* he is one of only six college coaches in to have been honored with the John R. Wooden “Legends of Coaching� Lifetime Achievement Award, joining Dean Smith, Mike Krzyzewski, Lute Olson, Denny Crum and Roy Williams.
* Montgomery compiled an impressive 547-244 (.692) overall record in 18 years at Stanford (1986-2004) and eight seasons at the University of Montana (1978-1986). He boasts an even more impressive 25 winning seasons in his 26 years as a head coach at both Stanford and Montana.
11:20am (continued) Additionally, Les Robinson has a nice relationship with Montgomery and even suggested Montgomery to NC State ten years ago as his replacement. At the time, Montgomery was firmly entrenched in building a national power at Stanford and wasn’t a fit for the move.
Not only did the NBA regular season end last night, but Golden State’s entire season ended as well since there will be no playoffs in the Warriors future.
Initially working against this theory were quotes from Montgomery and Golden State officials who publicly rebuffed the idea that he would be returning to the college game. However, after the Warriors season finale last night the tone of Montgomery’s comments changed to a much more neutral state and helps us build credence behind this theory:
“Right now that’s talk,” Montgomery said. “Rather than make too much of a deal out of that, let’s just wait and see what happens. I cannot honestly tell you what’s going to happen. But, at the same time, I don’t think you can be so naive to sit there and say this is all great and this all worked. I think you’ve got to keep your eyes open. I think you have to just do a real honest assessment of where you are, what guys can do and what they can’t do relative to this basketball team and each other.”
Conclusion
WHY NOW?
Any name that is out there that has been linked to the job – Lon Kruger, Mike Brey, Gregg Marshall, Dereck Whittenburg, Steve Lavin, Billy Gillispie, etc, etc – could/should have been hired the day after Calipari said no. If not immediately after the Cal situation, then at least a couple of days after the Cal situation and BEFORE this week’s recruiting evaluation period began.
There has to be a reason why this is happening NOW as opposed to a week earlier. That reason is either (1) Lee Fowler’s laziness and incompetence or (2) something more strategic like our two options in this piece. We think that it has to be #2. In fact, we think that it really is #2 and that the next Head Coach at NC State will be one of college basketball’s most successful coaches of the last 30 years – Mike Montgomery.
Don’t take it to the bank. But, if our premises are correct (and our sources’s guidance haven’t been skewed by misinformation) then deductive reasoning gets us to this conclusion pretty quickly. It is a conclusion that should get Wolfpackers very, very excited.
More later.
very interesting…we should hold a parade for Fowler if either of these scenarios comes true
C’mon Rick!!!! After starting the battle with Dean, you can finish it with Roy!!!
Though Montgomery would also be excellent!
I’ll take ‘something more strategic ‘ for a thousand alex.
SFN, prepare for web traffic to surge again.
Anyone as stoked as I am right now?
I’m guessing its Montgomery — both of those options would be “dramatic” and awesome IMO!
i sincerely hope the third time is the charm. i just can’t handle another emotional letdown.
be still my heart. . . Could it be true?
Great, great news if true.
I think it’s likely that LF is “working” on something big. My fear is that it won’t work out, and we’ll never know the details of this plan he’s working on. So when we do hire a b-list guy, it’ll look bad.
But hey, I hope I’m wrong! There’s plenty to be excited about at this point…
Finally a little meat to chew on!
I obviously like both of these candidates, but for some reason I want Barnes over Montgomery. Why, I do not know? Does that logic even make sense? I think part of it is just to spite all of the “high power” media and others who think we can’t land someone like Barnes, or that we can’t compete with Carolina and Duke.
Either one of these options would be awesome! Exciting times are back again, lets just hope we have some final GOOD news by the weekend.
I feel compelled to state this here before any anouncement is made.
I think Lee Fowler has done a excellent job. From pursing the top two to having to regroup and start over. I am actullay impressed with him having the balls to take it slow and I believe taking additional stabs at potential A list candidates, rather than taking the easy way out. Even if were to end up with one of the easy B candiates three weeks from now. I believe he has make every effort possible to get the best coach possible, and I support his efforts, will support his hire, and will support the coach, regardless.
I refuse to get my hopes up. Especially about Rick Barnes.
If it is Barnes or Montgomery though I’m going to make Rich take back all those mean things he’s said about Lee Fowler.
Montgomery for 5-10, a couple NCAA’s and ACC champioships while Whittenburg gets ready to take in Legend status
Of course it makes sense to prefer Barnes over Montgomery. Montgomery has been west coast based almost his netire life with brief stints in Montana and Colorado according to his NBA profile. Barnes is an NC native, so the fit is slightly more natural for him. In addition, Barnes is younger and has a more potential for staying for a long time. But with either man, I’ll be happy.
Mike Montgomery doesn’t have very much in the way of east coast ties, thats for sure.
But open arms here mike, come on.
Let’s keep an eye on N957P.
The only concerns re Monty would be (i) his complete lack of east coast experience or connection to NC State (unless you count Les’ friendship); and (ii) whether he still has the requisite “fire in the belly.”
Primacyone – I whole-heartedly agree. I haven’t been the most supportive of Lee Fowler in the past, but I’ve been highly impressed with the way he’s gone for the gold in this search. It would have been easy for him to just pull a B-list candidate and say, “I have faith in him, he’s going to be a winner,” after the first couple of setbacks. This is assuming he is going for the gold, though. I refuse to get my hopes truly up right now. Once bit, twice burned, third time a little shy.
74, I like that idea.
Any regional recruiting deficiencies could easily be compensated for by a strong staff. One has to think that the opportunity to work with one of College Basketball’s most successful coaches who also has NBA experience would be very compelling for a lot of assistants.
Thanks for feeding us some meat SFN. The wolves were getting hungry.
Montgomery with head assist Whitt…please. please. please.
I hate to say I called this four days ago, and my post mysteriously disapeared? I think SFN knew something was up then. It made me wonder what on earth I could have said to get the post booted. All I said was Mike M. would be NC States new basketball coach, that he has proven he can recruit nationally, and the academic standards placed on him he could handle, then hours later no post. I think you guys knew more this week then you were letting on(SFN).
Anyone as stoked as I am right now?
In summary: yes I am.
In long: Stacyy, cancel everything the rest of the day. Get out of my office; I haven’t read this blog in, like, 15 whole minutes! Whats happening? What’s the update?
Yeah…I mean, the easy answer to ‘why now’ if Whitt were chosen would be ‘because we tried for Montgomery or Barnes until that was no longer possible.’
Seriously. Any of the three I’d love to have. RB or MM for the experience and obvious skill, and Whitt for the passion and the history. (Can you imagine next year’s home games opening up with the announcer from the ’83 game over that famous clip…’WHITTenBERG….AHHHH THEY WON IT!’)
Mike Montgomery looks pretty freakin’ good!
I’m still holding out for Barnes though…. I thought it odd that with all his depletions (Aldridge and likely Tucker) he wouldn’t be willing to jump ship. I know he’s got great recruits coming in, but he can just bring those to State!