Bubble Update
When I originally tried to divide up the bubble based on RPI rank, I was expecting to be able to watch someone in the ACC fight up through the bubble. Instead, what I’ve seen is :
- Maryland trying to see how few games can be won and still stay on the bubble.
- UVa, Clemson, and Miami rise up a bit and then fall back
- Wake Forest tumble out of sight low
- Finally, FSU is making a late (very late) charge…with a lot of ground still to make-up.
So in light of the ACC teams not cooperating with my vision for the season…I divided up the prospective tournament teams by conference and bubble status to see if there was anything interesting going on elsewhere. Here are a few thoughts:
- The Big East Tournament would be a great place to make up ground for a bubble team. With six teams in the Top-30 and three teams in the Top-10, this would be a great venue for a big upset win.
- The Big 10 Tournament is not quite as deep as the BE, but could easily be stronger with five teams in the Top 15.
- With all the talk about the BE and B10 this year, a little history lesson might be appropriate. In 2004, the ACC had six teams in the RPI Top-20….with a total of 9 teams in the league. Just remember this the next time a talking head overstates the strength of the BE or B10 this year.
- The BE certainly gutted C-USA as a basketball league. They were left with Memphis and a bunch of dwarfs.
- The MVC is getting quite a buzz this year, with any number of people predicting five teams in. This may well happen…but I wouldn’t want to be the coach of a MVC Bubble team (RPI 36+) that doesn’t make the semi-finals of their conference tournament. There seems to be a number of times in the past where the Selection Committee let the conference tournament do their bubble-busting for them.
- Did you know that UNC-W was ranked #37? Go Seahawks!
Without any further babbling, here is the summary with a little “color� from by my two favorite professors at The Dance Card.
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TOURNAMENT LOCKS
BUBBLE TEAMS
RPI
Conf
RPI
Rank
Team
Conf
Rank
Rank
Team
2
Villanova
BE
2
44
Seton Hall
3
6
21
27
28
29
32
7
B10
1
43
8
11
12
13
31
1
Duke
ACC
3
45
17
NC State
20
34
22
MVC
6
36
24
Wichita St.
51
Bradley
26
Missouri St.
30
Creighton
14
UCLA
P10
18
7
35
4
SEC
38
15
4
39
23
10
B12
5
41
16
47
33
G. Washington
A10
11
48
Joseph
19
George Mason
CAA
10
37
NC
52
Old Dominion
46
Hofstra
5
CUSA
14
53
UAB
55
25
WAC
9
50
St
9
Gonzaga
WCC
12
PAT
21
40
Bucknell
SB
17
42
MWC
8
49
Air Force
Horz
15
54
Wisc
Milwaukee
Dance Card Predicts In
Dance Card Predicts Out
11 Responses to “Bubble Update”
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This is some excellent work. I’ve been working on some different numbers crunching in terms of football recruiting and I hope that it turns out as sweet as this one. Actually looking at the data, I cannot believe that the SEC is the 4th highest rated conference in the country. Both the SEC and the Big 12 are in downturns worse than the ACC. Texas is a good team which has been exposed too many times this year. Oklahoma is great when they hold their measly opponents to 58 points or less. The SEC isn’t winning any medals this year because Vandy is their third best team IN THE ENTIRE CONFERENCE. Florida is a very weak number 1 (getting swept for the season by South Carolina). Kentucky has been way down, losing both games with Vandy. Alabama is still a possibility to make the tournament but only with a very strong ending to the season. As for C-USA, don’t forget that not only did Cincy and Louisville bolt for the BE, Charlotte left for the A-10 to fight with GW. C-USA might come back but it won’t be for another three years or so. Great piece!
Sacco highlight the problems at the tops of the conferences and I think that Maryland shows that there are alot of teams struggling. Of course if this was the NFL, we would be “forced” to call it parity.
Maryland has won two games in three weeks and is still in the RPI Top-50. That just amazes me.
Good stuff. Can you imagine the 14th ranked conference, CUSA, getting 3 bids while the 3rd ranked conference, the ACC, gets 4 bids.
Tell me again why the ACC expanded? Although I guess we should be glad since BC is one of the ACC locks.
Does anyone really think that Wilmington and Old Dominion are better than all but 5 members of the ACC? Old Dominion’s biggest claim to fame this year is splitting with fellow CAA member George Mason and beating UNC-W. Other than those wins who have they beaten of note? And do we really call those wins “of note”? UNC-W also split with George Mason and was able to manage a split with mighty Hofstra. Other than that who have they beaten? For the CAA to get 3 bids while the ACC gets only 5 would be a joke.
^ UNC-Wilmington also lost to ECU. Hell, even Wake beat ECU.
Look for FSU to replace Maryland on the bubble if they win their matchup, which I think they will. I still believe both can get in with an 8-8 record and a win in the LRI. A quarterfinal win by either would seal it.
I think.
I haven’t done an indepth look at MD and the surrounding teams…but it looks like MD’s SOS is holding them up as their winning percentage slowly drops….and no one is winning enough to bury them any quicker.
I wish I had been graphing State’s RPI last year. It would be neat to lay FSU’s progress on top of State’s to see how they compare. If FSU gets by Md, they need wins against VT and UM to get to 9-7.
I’m going to say that 8-8 would require a win on Friday to get either into the NCAAT. FSU because of their weak SOS and 0-fer against the Top-50. UMD because of their poor record since 1/25.
VaWolf – Where is the ‘Ville in all of this. They are kind of reminding me of last year’s NC State team – meaning – if they win their last several conference games and several in the tourney, I can see them eaking in on name recognition and SOS.
Wow, 3 in from the Colonial? When was the last time they sent even two? Still, I’d rather see those teams play (and definitely the Missouri Valley teams, who always perform well) than to see more mediocre teams from major conferences that are WAY down (that means you, SEC, Pac 10, and Big 12 – and to a lesser extent, the ACC). I very much believe that the Big East should get 9, and the Big 10 6. Those leagues have earned the right to send more than half their teams. Maybe the ACC will get there next year.
Louisville is buried in the dregs of BE:
Louisville……….4-8
Providence…….4-8
Notre Dame……4-8
St. John’s………4-9
DePaul………….3-9
South Florida….0-12
Maybe I’m naive, but I don’t think that name recognition means squat…at least officially. Name recognition might have some subconscious effect on the selection committee, but I can’t see them saying….who has ever heard of Bucknell?….let’s take L’ville instead.
I think they’re toast. I don’t think they will even qualify for the BE tourney…which should disqualify them from the NCAAT. Pull up their schedule and results and see if you still think they have a chance at either tourney:
http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?team=Louisville
I meant to give kudos to Digger Phelps and forgot. Last year, he put at least 40 at-large bids into the tournament. This year, I’ve seen him explain why teams won’t get in….and RPI is one of the things he discusses.
The talking head with Digger used the term “RPI in the AARP range” last week. Someone must have finally shown them that the chances of getting in with RPI greater than 55 are pretty slim. It’s always nice to know that the people you are spending some time listening to have the ability to at least recognize the obvious.
VaWolf – If they win 3 of their next 4 – which would likely mean wins vs. Depaul, WVa, and Marquette – they would finish 7-9. I think w/ a good showing in the conference tourney (a 7-9 record would get them in) – they’d be dancing. I’m thinking 3 of 4 and 2 tourney wins would put them in a Top 50 RPI as well. Agreed that they probably won’t do it – but I can see them eaking their way in there.