Wins propels Pack close to Top 50 RPI

Friday was a very good day for NC State’s hopes to reach the the Wolfpack’s third consecutive NCAA Tournament. State’s big victory over Syracuse coupled with the impact of Pittburgh’s win over UNC-CHeats hsa served to make up significant room in the NCAA’s Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). As of 11:08pm, Live-RPI.com projects NC State to be sitting right outside of the Top 50 around #52.

Additionally, some other ‘bubble teams’ lost in some very ugly fashion tonight – inlcuding Minnesota (lost by 26 to Wisconsin) and Missouri (lost by 23 to Florida).

Now that the ACC officials have done their part to insure that Duke is going to advance to play State on Saturday in the ACC Tournament, all of the fly by night know it alls are going to talk about how NC State ‘must win’ on Saturday to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Well, that might end up being true. But, it isn’t necessarily a fact. NC State’s RPI will probably rise just for playing (currently #7) Duke, regardless of win or loss. Where it will end nobody knows. But, take a look at historical data regarding Top 50 teams from the ACC and let’s get a feel for how that should shake out.

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13-14 Basketball

Home Forums Wins propels Pack close to Top 50 RPI

This topic contains 65 replies, has 21 voices, and was last updated by  bill.onthebeach 7 months, 1 week ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 66 total)
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  • #46398

    StateFans
    Keymaster

    Friday was a very good day for NC State’s hopes to reach the the Wolfpack’s third consecutive NCAA Tournament. State’s big victory over Syracuse coupl
    [See the full post at: Wins propels Pack close to Top 50 RPI]

    #46407

    choppack1
    Participant

    I don’t think a loss vs. Duke will give us a bump. We have to win, we do and we dance.

    #46410

    wufpup76
    Participant

    Friday was a very good day for NC State …

    *nx lost, we beat Cuse.

    Denny’s Grand Slam specials for everyone!

    #46411

    Adventuroo
    Participant

    Having been at the Coliseum with a very nice view of the court for the final minutes of the Syracuse game and the Duke game, I can offer this.

    The State game was surreal….when all the shots (6) went up, it was almost in slow motion. You watched and held your breath. What a finish.

    The Duke game was boring, but Clemson stuck in there. Clemson should have been down by 15 with 10 to go, but Duke never put the dagger in the heart. It was like watching two punchdrunk fighters slug.

    The final play was as unbelievable as I have seen. Ron Hall ( I think), made a phenomenal run from the Duke side. There was 3.8 seconds on the clock…I suspect that it started a little late. His drive and then his “unfortunate encounter” with a Dukie (or maybe two) that went unnoticed by the officiating crew was….words escape me. Even the avid Duke fans said that Coach K must have had the ref’s family held hostage.

    As soon as the “no-call” was agreed on and the horn sounded, all three of the Zebra’s hightailed it OUT of the Coliseum in unison. I was looking straight down the Press (not the team) sideline. Hall got mugged and tripped….horn goes off. I look up at the Zeb’s….they are literally RUNNING to the exit (the one on the left – press side) and moving quicker than hall.

    In retrospect, from our RPI/BPI or whatever, Clemson losing was the best outcome and the smart money SHOULD have been on Duke.

    I commented to a few fans from various schools that NOW, the Clemson ending would get MORE publicity that the grand theft at Syracuse.

    On to TOMORROW. The UNC fans are now plotting HOW they are going to “HURT” KH and crew…BOY….they are NOW on him worse than we were…

    #46416

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    RE: Denny’s…

    Some of you guys are too tough on the old Basketsaurus Norte…

    Wouldn’t it be better if…
    Uncle Roy just took Boeheim to Stameys and made him eat BBQ ??

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #46417

    Pack78
    Participant

    As soon as the “no-call” was agreed on and the horn sounded, all three of the Zebra’s hightailed it OUT of the Coliseum in unison.

    Thieves usually are anxious to bolt quickly from the scene of their crimes…

    #46419

    MP
    Participant

    Ummmmmm, we better beat Duke if we want to go to the NCAAT.

    #46421

    SqlWolf
    Participant

    Ummmmmm, we better beat Duke if we want to go to the NCAAT.

    Seriously, eyes on the prize, guys. I’m sure our coach Gott is telling our boys that we are here to win the tournament.

    #46422

    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Stat guys … don’t take this the ‘wrong way’… I love what you do…

    But if I’m coaching I say.. “F” that RPI stuff…
    If that’s the reason to win… we might as well stay in the hotel.

    Beat DOOK… go to the NIT ???

    Works for me.
    I just wanta BEAT DOOK… BAD… !


    The Old Ghosts are in the Greensboro Coliseum and the Old Ghosts ain’t finished smiling!

    #ForEighteenYears? #WeGottDis.pack! #STATEment
    #46423

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    That was actually a fine no call. Replays show no contact whatsoever. Hall just lost it – out of control. Announcers said the same.

    We gotta go get this one.

    #46428

    mak4dpak
    Participant

    I did feel better about playing Clemson than Duke, but it is what it is. As for the no call, I thought there should have been a foul called, but after watching the replay, the call was correct, or should I say the no call.

    #46431

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    The numbers track what I expected to happen going into the ACCT. I do think Lunardi is underselling us, but not by as much as we might hope. Think we’re “Last Four Out/#1 NIT seed” material with a loss today. History is actually not great for outer-bubble ACC teams that beat someone tough to reach the semis, then lose close to a top team.

    #46432

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    We can argue with Lunardi all we want, but his track record is extremely solid. If he misses, it is never by much. We all know we must win today. We said that coming in and it remains so now.

    #46433

    Adventuroo
    Participant

    From the front row perimeter seats of the second level….very close to where Hall went down, you could hear it as well as see it. Funny thing….watching all the 6 shots that Syracuse made down there was like a scene from the Twilight Zone…I could watch and count.

    But, when Hall sprinted, it happened in speeded up REAL time. All you saw was Hall going down and Duke bodies around him.

    If it was a NO CALL….then GOOD…but it looked ugly and the Dookies around us looked at each other and finally exhaled when the Refs hit the “Outta Here” button.

    Not arguing with anyone….just stating that it was the kind of event where you usually hear a multitude of tweets…but if he slipped and no Dookie was involved, then Coach K escaped.

    STILL should have been won by the 10:00 minute mark in the second half. Duke did NOT have the momentum….

    That MIGHT be a wake-up call….so we will have to FIGHT for the win and the chance to Survive and Advance….

    GO PACK.

    #46434

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    The excellent radio guys on SiriusXM’s coverage (Bill Rozinski and Bob Valvano) thought that Hall tripped over his own foot, then looked back at the replay and confirmed it.

    #46436

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    It certainly looked like a foul in real time. Replays, however show zero contact from a Dookie. It was all Hall out of control trying to sell it.

    #46445

    Texpack
    Participant

    Dance Card has us two spots out. We really need Creighton to beat Providence tonight. A Tennessee miracle over Florida is the only other game that could help us out.

    #46446

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Cool, thanks for posting that, Tex. That is what my gut was estimating.

    #46454

    Rick
    Keymaster

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BivU-NFCEAAbbD4.jpg:large

    I am not sure if this image works but if you don’t think that i is a foul I am not sure we will ever agree on anything basketball related

    #46456

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Several years ago, the Selection Committee announced that all wins would be evaluated the same no matter when they occurred during the season. Before that announcement, it was undeniable that conference tourney wins were given more weight and I had a number of examples that left no doubt. But if big wins are valued the same no matter when they happened, then what value (if any) is attached to a strong finish (with big wins) or to a team that stumbles down the stretch? (not a rhetorical question)

    When I first wrote about the Dance Card, I spent some time analyzing their misses (predicted in or predicted out) to see where math lost its effect and where other factors entered in. I found several examples of teams that the Dance Card predicted IN, but stumbled down the stretch and fell to the NIT. The write-up linked above also illustrates the importance of tourney wins (at least its past importance).

    The decision to treat all wins as equal seems to make the selection process more mechanical and less subjective. So teams like Iowa (lost 3 in a row and 5 of last 6) and Arizona St (lost 3 in a row and 5 of last 7) still have their Top 25 and Top 50 wins and frankly have better over-all resumes than State (at least thru last night).

    So I still think that the majority of opinions here at SFN are correct in that State needed two Top-25 wins in the ACCT or the automatic bid. It seems like everything we’ve seen still supports that projection.

    Note: Over the years that I have been here, SFN has outgrown more servers than I can count. So the article linked above has some strange formatting issues that were injected during one or more of the site upgrades. I say all of that only as a way of explanation. I’m sure that it would have been easier to have just started with a blank sheet of paper, but alot of work was put in to maintain the SFN archives during the various upgrades….which is something that I am very thankful for.

    #46457

    Rick
    Keymaster

    Btw Thornton is the dirtiest player in the acc

    #46459

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    For those that do like discussing RPI…

    From cbssports:

    Pitt beat UNC and went from 40 to 38
    State beat SYR and went from 62 to 52

    I think that the difference can be attributed to two different things:

    1) SYR has a better overall record than UNC and thus State got a bigger boost in SOS than Pitt did.

    2) As you move up in the rankings, you will eventually reach a point where you can only move up as fast as people above you are losing. Obviously Pitt is alot closer to that point than State is.

    The difference doesn’t mean anything as far as the remainder of this year goes. I only mention it as a warning to those who like to project changes in rankings based on the results of one game. How far you move following a win or loss depends alot on where you are in the rankings AND on what those around you in the rankings are doing.

    #46467

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Oh yes that is definitely a foul. Replays did not show that. At least not the one I saw.

    #46468

    ancsu87
    Participant

    The key is that if it was the Duke guard falling out of control with Clemson players around him then the whistles would have blown. No way would there be a call of “no contact”. That, in a nutshell, is an explanation of the ACC ref bias.

    #46475

    Texpack
    Participant

    Correct. When the Duke player did fall out of control on the previous possession and no Clemson player ever reached for the ball, Duke got the call.

    Thanks for posting the picture. That’s exactly what I saw on the replay last night. It was a no brainier.

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