TOB crushed his ‘magic number’

'10 Football Coaches College Football24

Long time readers know that we love to follow the world of coaching moves from the expectations fans apply to their coaches to the way Athletics Directors deal with situations all the way through to the annual coaching carousel of firings and hirings.

I also like to take snapshots of people who will go ‘on the record’ with comments and expectations for coaches.

Before the 2010 college football season began, “Bleacher Report” ran an article identifying ‘magic numbers’ of wins’ for some coaches.  (Note: Bleacher Report is awful.  You must realize that most anything you see there is nothing more than a message board topic that gets attention in a more glitzy package.)

This pre-season article proclaimed that Tom O’Brien’s magic number of wins was seven.

After things just didn’t work out with head coach Chuck Amato, North Carolina State decided to bring in the tough minded Tom O’Brien from Boston College to give the program some needed discipline.

O’Brien has started reshaping the program in his image, and has done a good job of injecting some structure, but it just hasn’t resulted in a breakout season yet.  The Wolfpack fans have been treated to three straight seasons of seven losses. There’s no doubt that kind of performance just doesn’t meet expectations.  O’Brien’s offense will be fine this season with one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC, junior Russell Wilson, leading the way.

The defense is what needs to sharpen up. The unit let up over 30 points a game last season, including a three game stretch in which they gave up over 45 points in every game.  O’Brien has to get this team to a bowl and show the fans and the boosters that he can put a defense out on the field worthy of respect.

Other key magic numbers in the article? 

Take a look at them and tell me what you think.  Gotta love Maryland’s firing of the Fridge after a NINE WIN SEASON.  Can’t wait for Tim Brando, Seth Davis, Dennis Dodd and others to ride Maryland fans for the next decade on what they did to one of their most successful head football coaches in history?  Could you imagine if NC State had actually fired Herb Sendek instead of Sendek’s exercising of free will to leave NC State on his own accord for Arizona State in an offseason where he was losing 4 starters and bringing in a weak and spotty recruiting class?  We may have all been subpoenaed! 

Looking for more?  You can visit this conversation.

The ticker at the bottom of the TV screen caught my eye last night when it listed State’s NFL draft prospects. Nate and George Bryan were projected mid-round picks. Williams and Spencer were way down the list of top WRs (something like 46th and 63rd best). And that was it, no other juniors/seniors even rated a mention.

The team just completed a 9 win, 5-3 ACC season that will probably end with us ranked in the top 25…and it has only two upperclassmen who will be drafted, and no one even close to a first rounder. That is remarkable.

By comparison, look at our 7-5, Meineke Car Care Bowl champs team from 2005. That team, which was unquestionably not as good as the 2010 Pack, had the #1 overall pick, three first rounders, 7 jrs/srs who were drafted in the fourth round or higher, and 9 jrs/srs who were drafted overall.

This does seem to support the notion held by me and BJD (among others) that TOB does not need to recruit elite talent to do very well. We need a good QB. With a QB in place, TOB can coach a bunch of solid but unspectacular players to 9+ win seasons.

About StateFans

'StateFansNation' is the shared profile used by any/all of the dozen or so authors that contribute to the blog. You may not always agree with us, but you will have little doubt about where we stand on most issues. Please follow us on Twitter and FaceBook

'10 Football Coaches College Football

24 Responses to TOB crushed his ‘magic number’

  1. packbackr04 01/06/2011 at 10:34 AM #

    and 1 fourth down and 1 call away from a 10 win season

  2. Classof89 01/06/2011 at 10:38 AM #

    and one miraculous goal line fumble and one circus catch in the end zone from 6-6…

  3. Ismael 01/06/2011 at 10:44 AM #

    Cal came within a (ive never seen a kicker have an illegal motion penalty) missed FG of ruining Oregon’s season. Clemson came within a missed OT FG of ruining Auburn’s season. All good football teams have to win the lucky ones to be great.

  4. waxhaw 01/06/2011 at 11:01 AM #

    If Wilson hadn’t thrown that inteception in the endzone, Ponder’s fumble never would have mattered. You can’t say one was lucky without saying the other was unlucky. They cancel out.

    As for UNC-CH, who cares. We beat their asses for the 4th year in a row.

  5. packplantpath 01/06/2011 at 11:12 AM #

    “If Wilson hadn’t thrown that inteception in the endzone, Ponder’s fumble never would have mattered. You can’t say one was lucky without saying the other was unlucky. They cancel out.”

    Yea, but Wilson had a nice string of endzone interceptions going there for a while. How many endzone fumbles was Ponder good for this year? Ponders fumble was a nice fluke, Wilson’s interception was a trend for a while there.

  6. phillypacker 01/06/2011 at 11:42 AM #

    Let me add to the list, with VT, we were driving in the final minutes of the game with the score 34-30, when Wilson throws a pick six. Same thing happened with Clemson. Fraudulent spot in the MD game probably denies another win. Give me two out of those three back and we could have won 10-11.

  7. Gowolves 01/06/2011 at 11:54 AM #

    If a bullfrog had wings he wouldn’t bump his a$$!

  8. Scooter 01/06/2011 at 11:56 AM #

    @89 Luck is a part of the game. And you create your own luck.

  9. VaWolf82 01/06/2011 at 12:12 PM #

    We need a good QB. With a QB in place, TOB can coach a bunch of solid but unspectacular players to 9+ win seasons.

    I mostly agree. However, State doesn’t get to nine wins this year with the defensive “strategy” used previously. “Bend but don’t break” defenses usually break.

    After QB, I pick the defensive line as the next most important positions.

  10. Wolfy__79 01/06/2011 at 12:15 PM #

    We were both GOOD & LUCKY in the 2010 football season. we should all know this. it does take a string of luck to have a great season, idk if you are NC STATE or the OSU luckeyes!

    heading into this season who would have thought that we would have had such a significant change in the level of our defensive play? if honest/realistic, most of us should be able to acknowledge that.

    so we had our string of luck both good and bad. and thinking within TOB’s system, b/c its all about his systematic approach.. what was the major letdown for most of us? that would be RW’s maturity, he is a great athlete and has proven that on the field for three years and hopefully counting. the letdown is his maturity hasn’t caught up with his abilities yet. he forced the ball all year long, f.e. pick to va tech to end the game.

    all of his int’s in my opinion show us that his maturity is not where it should have been. he basically did not have any progress in that all important category from the year before, hence the continued int string. he needs to commit to NCSU or the pro’s sooner this year. he held himself back.

    More importantly, do we still have jon tenuta. i anticipate him being shopped by all these new head coaches for a dc position. can we keep him, this will have a more significant impact than anything RW will or won’t do!?

  11. Wulfpack 01/06/2011 at 12:27 PM #

    Nice to have a coach that is not afraid to go on record and state goals. Breath of fresh air if you ask me.

  12. Wolfy__79 01/06/2011 at 12:29 PM #

    our d&o line play should be the most consistent aspect of our TOB team. we have a great nucleus of lb’s and a maturing secondary. one would think that we should significantly improve heading into 2011..

    regardless of our qb next season, we have to incorporate more of a running attack. even if russell is there, mustafa & co. must be more consistent.

    tenuta is key to consistent improvement and i hope we see him take charge of our entire defense..

  13. Wolfy__79 01/06/2011 at 12:36 PM #

    TOB in nc versus new england area =’s a little more 4-5* recruits but still having his foundation of 2-3*’s that he develops. north carolina might be geographically the perfect place for a TOB type to blend a championship mix of both southern speed and big ten size up front to win at the very least a couple ACC Championships… one winning season from him?, he hasn’t really proved this but this is the ceiling i see for him..

    THOUGHTS?

  14. novawolf 01/06/2011 at 1:51 PM #

    That 7-5 Meineke Bowl team was coached by Amato, who did less with more. This 2010 team was of course coached by TOB, who can do more with less. Chuck’s recruiting tailed off in later life, and as we can see State had less NFL draft picks in the last of Chuck’s years and the first of TOB’s. Chuck’s guys are washing out of the system…next year they should all disappear (I think).

    TOB can coach talent, as we’ve seen with pros like Kiwanuka and Matt Ryan (and Glennon looks a lot like Ryan to me). While I don’t expect TOB to out-recruit BMFD (or his possible replacement), I’d like to see a few 4/5 star recruits show up in Raleigh. Otherwise our ceiling will be 9, and I’d like for our ceiling to be in double digits…and believe it can/will be.

  15. NCMike 01/06/2011 at 5:15 PM #

    OK…this is totally off base, but why are there ads for UNC basketball tickets all over this site?

  16. PoppaJohn 01/06/2011 at 5:26 PM #

    I can’t wait to see next year’s team perform to get a sense of whether this year was an abberation or not. My sense of it is that this year was what we can expect because the previous couple of years were so heavily impacted by injuries.

    I hope I am right. It was a fun year.

    GO PACK! BEAT WAKE!!!

  17. PoppaJohn 01/06/2011 at 5:30 PM #

    By the way, I got a good laugh from this article.

    “By the way, Bleacher Report is awful.” But we’re going to burn a page talking about what Bleacher Report says.

  18. packbackr04 01/06/2011 at 8:10 PM #

    russell did throw some questionable picks this year.. and some of them were in the red zone. but when you ask your QB to pass it 50-60 times a game. he is going to throw some picks. we had ZERO running game this yr. Defenses were able to key in on Russell and the passing game and he STILL had a spectacular year. I just dont get the people clamoring for Glennon. Wilson will break most, if not all of Rivers’ records if he stays one more year.

    Russell is arguably the best QB to ever play in Raleigh and people want him to leave just to see a 6’5″ toothpick get his sternum snapped the first time the O-line allows a total jail break(which happened alot this yr). Russell masked alot of the deficiencies of our still suspect O-line(which TOB is supposed to be famous for developing).

  19. LKNpackfan 01/06/2011 at 9:02 PM #

    I’ve heard George Bryan is as good as gone. Wish he’s stick around, but good luck in the pros

  20. Wufpacker 01/06/2011 at 10:14 PM #

    ** “TOB in nc versus new england area =’s a little more 4-5* recruits but still having his foundation of 2-3*’s that he develops. north carolina might be geographically the perfect place for a TOB type to blend a championship mix of both southern speed and big ten size up front to win at the very least a couple ACC Championships… one winning season from him?, he hasn’t really proved this but this is the ceiling i see for him..”

    Not sure what you’re saying here. First you say TOB should be expected to have better success at NCS than at BC by virtue of being able to land a few more 4* & 5* recruits AND increasing average team speed (above what he averaged at BC, that is), and that this should result in ACC Championships (a couple at least).

    Then you seem to say that you’re not surprised that he’s only had one winning season and that his only winning season, this past season with nine wins, is probably his ceiling. Either I’m not understanding your reasoning, or those two things seem contradictory.

    Are you saying that he SHOULD HAVE BEEN able to mix the size and speed and get championship results, but since he hasn’t yet demonstrated that ability it proves that this year is likely his ceiling?

    If so, I have to disagree.

    I’m not saying that he necessarily WILL get that balance of size/speed, raw talent/coaching, etc. which results in NCSU being in the conversation re: ACC Champs and BCS/Orange Bowl bids year in and year out. But given the fact that much of his shortcomings in the first three years had to do with inheriting a program that was in worse shape than most folks realize as far as talent/recruiting, and added to that was some really horrible luck as far as injuries, etc, I don’t think we can reasonably say we yet know what TOB’s ceiling in Raleigh will be.

    7 or 8 wins with a middle or lower tier bowl bid might very well be his ceiling, that’s definitely possible. But I don’t think we know that for sure just yet.

  21. Wufpacker 01/06/2011 at 10:51 PM #

    As far as people “clamoring” for Glennon, I don’t think that’s exactly right. In fact, I think most folks would probably choose to have Russell stay another year if they had the choice to make themselves.

    But Glennon is more than just “a 6′ 5″ toothpick”. His game is different from Wilson’s, of course. He’s more of the prototypical pocket passser and one would presume that his mobility is not even close to equal to Wilson’s. But it doesn’t necessarily have to be, and I’ll be very surprised if his performance is as big of a dropoff from Wilson’s as a lot of folks seem to think it’ll be, if at all.

    He is significantly taller than Russell which will allow him to see the field much more effectively, and likely make reads more quickly and perhaps more accurately. By all accounts his arm strength and accuracy are tremendous. Perhaps most importantly, he’s smart. I agree that his frame is slight, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s any more fragile than any other QB. Assuming he can read a defensive set well and can get even some protection from the OL, he’s got the tools to be very, very successful.

    I don’t think most folks are clamoring for Glennon or hoping for Russell to move on. But Russell moving on does seem to be the most likely right now. The fact that currently we have an apparently very good backup QB in Glennon, now waiting in the wings to take over the controls…well, I think that it’s just a nice problem to have. There are a lot of programs that would have liked to have had a Mike Glennon to start for them the past two or three years. We had the luxury of having him as a backup.

    Basically I think folks are excited that whether Russell goes ahead and pursues baseball OR decides to change his mind and stay for another season, we’ve got a pretty darn good QB returning either way.

    As far as how successful NCSU will be next year, I think more important than the question of who is at QB, will be can we get any kind of ground game established in order to keep opposing defenses honest (and of course how effective our own defense can be, especially in defending the passing game).

    If we’re able to keep defenses from dropping five or six in coverage on every down, or from being able to throw blitzes at him constantly (without picking them up on pass protection) then Glennon (or Russell, for that matter) will be just fine. This past year we did that to some degree with the short/screen passes, and since Russell could/can also create with his feet/mobility, defenses had to be at least somewhat honest with him.

  22. PackerInRussia 01/07/2011 at 3:40 AM #

    “Could you imagine if NC State had actually fired Herb Sendek instead of Sendek’s exercising of free will to leave NC State on his own accord for Arizona State”

    Perhaps the way it played out is why it is so “unforgivable” in their minds. Their POV: You have a great coach in place who is having success year after year and the program is on the rise. But, fans are so impatient and rabid and unrealistic that the poor guy is practically run out of town.
    AD’s (except Lee Fowler) fire coaches all the time. At NC State, WE fired Herb Sendek. Seth Davis will shed a tear every time he recalls this.

  23. Lock 01/07/2011 at 9:39 AM #

    “…Sendek’s exercising of free will…”

    …is that what it’s called nowadays?

    He was fired, just as dude above me said. Though I take offense at the all-inclusive ‘we.’

  24. PackerInRussia 01/08/2011 at 10:39 AM #

    ^ I was simply explaining why the Sendek situation was different from Fridge or anyone else who is fired. In the minds of the media members who can’t let go, the difference is that the fans supposedly ran him off. I was just stating it in the terms they see it in.

Leave a Reply