Wake Forest Preview

'07 Football30

I almost didn’t do a WF preview this week. The keys to the game should be obvious to anyone that has watched any ACC football at all over the last several years. But before we get to those, let’s take a little closer look at a few areas that caught my attention.

WF Rushing Attack

The recruitment of Josh Adams several years ago garnered a lot of attention on State sites since he played his high school ball in Cary. Most people expected that he would have a nice career at WF. However, I don’t think that many people expected him to be WF’s leading rusher (and 4th in the ACC) as a RS-FR. 152 carries for 692 net yds (4.6 yds per carry) is pretty darn good production.

Micah Andrews missed most of last year after being hurt in the third game of the season. This year, his carries have dropped dramatically (346 yds on 98 carries). Does anyone know the story on Micah?

After losing Micah last year, WF’s rushing duties were split rather evenly among three different RB’s….Kenny Moore, Kevin Harris, and De’Angelo Bryant. This trio is back again this year, but only have 70 carries combined.

– Sidenote: Along with losing Micah in the third game last year, WF also lost their starting QB (Ben Mauk) after he was hurt in the first game of last season…Just a little something to remember when people try to belittle WF’s ACC title last year.

WF Passing Attack

Last year, WF threw on about 35% of their offensive plays. WF’s passing attack now accounts for about 41% of their offensive plays. Some of that difference is obviously due to falling behind (and by large margins) in several games this year. But it seems to me that WF is passing in situations this year when they would have run in the past. Has anyone else noticed this?

The passing attack has not been as efficient as it was last year….falling from 35th nationally last year to 65th this year. I don’t know exactly how passing efficiency is calculated, but I suspect a lot of the difference is due to the difference in TD/INT ratio. 9/5 last year and 7/11 so far this year.

While nothing in the last two paragraphs is anything for WF fans to cheer about, those numbers don’t tell the entire story. For the year, Skinner has 166 completions on 228 attempts…or 73% completion percentage. That ain’t chopped liver, folks.

WF Defense and Special Teams

WF appears to have a good, but not great, defense. Nationally they rank in the 30’s and 40’s for most defensive categories. Based solely on statistics, their pass defense is the weakest part of the defense with a national ranking of 63rd.

At one time, WF led the nation (and still might) in non-offensive TD’s. This is a credit to both their defense and their special teams. WF’s punt return yardage ranks 12th nationally…just something else to consider along with State’s occasional punting woes.

I am sure that State fans have not forgotten WF’s kicker who made three, 50 yd FG’s against the Pack last year. I suspect he would like a chance to atone for missing the winning FG against UVA this year.

Return of the Self-Defeating Offense

In the second half of the UNC game, State’s offense clearly had their worst half since the FSU game. This awkward truth is being ignored by the media and most State fans in the aftermath of beating UNC. Lest you think that I am exaggerating, here is the summary of State’s offensive drives from the second half.

3rd Quarter

Start

Time

Drive

# of

Yards

Result

Time

Poss

Began

Plays

Gained

 

14:55

2:10

NCSt 30

5

21

Punt

9:39

1:24

NCSt 14

3

6

Punt

8:00

1:00

NCSt 26

3

-8

Punt

5:29

0:30

NCSt 20

3

4

Punt

 

4th Quarter

Start

Time

Drive

# of

Yards

Result

Time

Poss

Began

Plays

Gained

 

14:50

4:00

NCSt 5

12

72

Int

9:35

1:45

NCSt 31

3

-10

Punt

6:15

4:34

UNC 25

8

25

TD

State’s Rushing Defense

Which game better describes State’s rushing defense…..300+ yds against Miami or 12 yards against UNC? The answer to this question will go a long way in determining who wins on Saturday.

There are three teams that rely heavily on the run in the second half of State’s schedule this year…Miami, WF, and Maryland. I think that I will wait a little while longer before deciding that State’s poor rushing defense from the first half of the season has been fixed.

How to Lose a Game to WF

State’s last two trips to Winston-Salem ended in losses, but in dramatically different fashion. If State loses on Saturday, then I expect that the game will closely match one of the last two trips to WF:

– 2003

PR’s senior year was quickly derailed in Winston Salem when State’s defense couldn’t stop the run….which opened up the entire WF playbook. 200+ yds rushing, 175 yds passing, and 38 points led to a decisive WF win.

– 2005

State’s QBs combined for 4 TD passes…..two for State and two for WF. Even a top-10 defense isn’t enough when your QB helps the opponent’s defense outscore the opponent’s offense.

Keys to the Game

– Contain WF’s rushing game

Jim Grobe>>>>>>Randy Shannon
State can not give up 300 yds rushing to WF and expect to win.

– Give Daniel Evans time in the pocket.

UVA and Miami combined for a total of four sacks against State. The protection was not nearly as good against UNC where the OL gave up four sacks in one game. The pressure disrupted State’s offense and led to two pick-6’s for UNC.

– Make Good Decisions Under Fire

A QB can not expect to play for an entire game and keep his uniform clean…pressure is going to come eventually. What you do when pressure comes goes a long way in defining a QB; and determining whether your team will win or lose.

ADDENDUM

For those that love raw numbers, here is WF’s national ranking in various statistical categories for the last two years. The data comes from the NCAA and from ESPN.

 

2006

2007

 

Rank

Actual

Rank

Actual

Rushing
Offense

44

149.9

72

143.2

Passing
Offense

104

157.1

89

193.3

Total
Offense

96

307.0

96

336.5

Scoring
Offense

78

21.6

T-63

26.9

Passing
Efficiency

35

138.3

65

125.9

3rd
Down Conversons

85

35.1

51

41.2

Sacks
Allowed

54

1.9

56

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

Rushing
Defense

21

105.8

30

123.4

Pass
Defense

82

216.7

63

228.6

Total
Defense

45

322.5

40

352

Scoring
Defense

12

15.4

46

24.4

Sacks

46

2.3

41

2.4

Tackles
For Loss

63

5.5

T-49

6.5

 

 

 

 

 

Net
Punting

9

38.2

77

34.07

Punt
Returns

33

11.1

27

11.88

Kickoff
Returns

62

20.0

15

24.09

 

 

 

 

 

Turnover
Margin

6

0.9

T-25

0.6

Penalties

T-76

44.2

T-98

48.7

(#1 =
Most Penalties)

 

 

 

 

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

'07 Football

30 Responses to Wake Forest Preview

  1. branjawn 11/14/2007 at 4:50 PM #

    Just looked at vegas odds. WF -6 for what it’s worth.

  2. packbackr04 11/14/2007 at 5:05 PM #

    Your link doesn’t work and we already have an entry discussing the deficiencies of the AD. Please put comments on the appropriate thread.
    VaWolf82

    Talk About Timing! Right on Cue

  3. LRM 11/14/2007 at 5:14 PM #

    We’ve won at Wake ONCE since ’95 (17-14 in ’01). Let’s not discount the fact that in the past 10 years, we’ve reserved some of our most laughable performances for Winston-Salem.

    A win this weekend would be a big step away from that, but I don’t expect it to be easy.

  4. vtpackfan 11/14/2007 at 5:53 PM #

    Wake has a CB that is great at baiting throws from the opposing QB and then jumping the route. Can’t remember his name, but we need to be fully aware of where he is on the field.

    Pass blocking for DE will be at a premium. We could see numbers akin to UVA or ECU put up in the passing game if DE has timoe to operate. Without pressure, Wake DB’s gamble and get hung out to dry. With pressure, QB’s rush their checkdowns and take the bait, usually resulting in a Pick 6.

    I don’t know how Eugene could possible muster another 30 carry performence, honestly. Maybe Underwood could step up for a few more carries, or else we’re in for a 45+ pass attempts.

    The defense took a big hit when Walker went down. UNC let us off the hook because they have no idea what rushing is in College football. Neal played SS for us but really wasn’t tested in run support. We will find out if he can hack it this week. It all starts up front with Pressley and Cash against their All American C, Justice.

  5. noah 11/14/2007 at 5:56 PM #

    I’m expecting a Wake win….

    WFU – 25
    NCSU – 16

    That’s two Wake touchdowns, three FGs and a safety.

    I think we’ll rebound from the Wake loss to beat Maryland, 23-19.

  6. Mr O 11/14/2007 at 6:20 PM #

    Vawolf: Here is some info that was gathered by a Wake fan and sheds a lot of light on why Wake is successful.

    Overall
    Wake is 65th in the country in rushing TDs (14)
    Wake is 90th in the country in passing TDs (8)
    Yet Wake is 52nd in the country in total TDs (31)

    Now one could say that our offense is just balanced. But no.

    Defensive TD burden
    Wake is 91st in the country in total offense TDs (22; rushing + passing).
    Wake is 1st in the country in defense/special teams TDs (9)
    Wake is also 1st in the country in defense/special teams TD production (40.1%; percentage of TDs scored by defense/special teams)

    (by comparison, 2nd is Army with 5 D/ST TDs and 14 offensive TDs at 35.7%)

    Swank’s burden
    Wake is 22nd in FG made (14). Credit Swank for that. All good, right?

    Nope.

    Wake is 85th in offensive production (174; 6 points for TD, 3 points for FG)
    Wake is 15th in FG production (24.1%, percentage of offensive production from FGs)

    Only 14 teams depend on FGs for offense more than Wake. Interesting, FSU, Tech, State, and UNC are among those teams.

    In summary…
    Wake’s defense and special teams scores around 40% of Wake’s total TDs.
    Wake’s defense and special teams has scored more TDs than Wake’s passing game.
    Sam Swank accounts for almost a fourth (24.1%) of the points scored by the offense from TDs and FGs.

    Total scoring from TDs and FGs:
    Wake rushing = 14 TDs = 84 points
    Wake passing = 8 TDs = 48 points
    Sam Swank = 14 FGs = 42 points
    Wake defense/special teams = 9 TDs = 54 points

    Wake rushing is 36.8% of the scoring
    Wake passing is 21.1% of the scoring
    Sam Swank is 18.4% of the scoring
    Wake defense/special teams is 23.7% of the scoring

    Wake rushing and passing TDs only account for 57.9% of the scoring. This is 118th in the country out of 119 teams.

    So in short, rushing and passing TDs comprise a smaller percentage of Wake’s offense than every team in the country except UAB.

  7. VaWolf82 11/14/2007 at 6:30 PM #

    Sam Swank accounts for almost a fourth (24.1%) of the points scored by the offense from TDs and FGs.

    Is this a good news/bad news deal for WF?

    Swank is an excellent kicker…but this stat suggests that WF’s offense suffers from the Mazzone Disease.

  8. Girlfriend in a Coma 11/14/2007 at 6:34 PM #

    I would be amazed if we did not suffer some kind of a letdown this weekend after what happened last. It’s human.

  9. burnbarn 11/14/2007 at 6:51 PM #

    I was in a conundrum on our final drive against UNC. I was thrilled we were getting first downs, but I was equally frustrated b/c we were getting 1st downs on first down and the clock was stopping. I mean we went all the way down the field in 4 minutes on all runs to that point if I remember correctly. That should have taken the remainder of the game plus a couple of time outs.
    Also, on the interception drive, we marched down the field in similar fashion. I agree we were not as good in the 2nd half, but we also had two drops to kill or hinder drives. So I agree that it can be argued that we were not as good in the 2nd, but we did okay. BTW, the two drops were perfect passes. UNC also did a nice job of adjusting to the roll out/misdirection of DE. I was shocked we were as effective on that roll out as we were in the first b/c it is something we have been doing alot this season. They made an adjustment at halftime and it took us a couple of series to adjust to that.

    WF.. we really need a win in this series. I don’t expect it this year. Great info in here.

  10. VaWolf82 11/14/2007 at 6:54 PM #

    It all starts up front with Pressley and Cash against their All American C, Justice.

    I couldn’t agree more. State shut down WF’s rushing attack in 2002, 2004, and 2005…..and did it mostly with the DL.

    This comment made me remember something that got left out of the entry. In 2004, Ray Brooks started the second half against WF in place of Manny Lawson. WF’s offense ended up with negative yardage over the coruse of the 3rd quarter.

    It will be interesting to see how much Willie Young plays, how much WF runs at him, and how he does.

  11. bTHEredterror 11/14/2007 at 7:18 PM #

    I would be surprised if there is a letdown. These guys usually pick us off like they pick everybody else off. Oversight. We gave them the game in Raleigh last year, and it think it was where we went in the tank.

    The DE INTs versus UNC were a good thing (since we won) and DE and Bible will focus on ball security this week. If we can keep TOs to a minimum, we should be able to squeeze one out.

    All the numbers provided indicate without an opponent beating themselves, Wake generally doesn’t win. The bad punter may actually benefit us as it will likely throw off their punt return game, and Hauska ought to neutralize their kickoff return team. Wake is not that good on defense, and they depend on gimmick plays on offense. They do not have the talent on the DL that UNC does, that is the one unit on UNC’s team that is above standard, and they are weak in the secondary. I expect us to come out strong and run the ball down their throat. They have had trouble keeping Skinner upright, and our DL is playing great, advantage State. I expect we will generate some TOs of our own.

    The one thing that concerns me is our vulnerability to the PA pass, a staple of their offense. I predict a 31-17 win, its the Red War next week that scares me.

  12. RabidWolf 11/14/2007 at 7:31 PM #

    ^Agreed, this game will be won on the OL / DL. Run on them, and stop their run.

    I’m sure Archer will be running these guys through LOTS of PA pass scenarios, as well as misdirection plays.

    Like I said before the unx game, give Evans time and he can pick (no pun) a secondary apart. It’s apparently the shorties he has issues with.

    State 27 Wake 17

  13. Master 11/14/2007 at 7:40 PM #

    I’m with bTHEredterror all the way. Wake is simply not as impressive this year as last. Sometimes a team just gets the mojo (confidence) going and can’t be stopped (see the Fridge’s first MD team.) That’s not the case this year with Wake – but it could be the case with State since the open date.

    Forget what has happened since 1995. MOC and CTC are gone. This is a new era.

  14. wolfman 11/14/2007 at 7:50 PM #

    Wake is just a team of opportunity. They find ways to win. They don’t turn over the ball, but they beat you on turnovers and missed assignments. I was shocked that they got blown out by Clempsun. The Tiggerz have lately reserved some of their worst football for games against Wake.

  15. Primewolf 11/14/2007 at 8:36 PM #

    I think there will be some scores and that we will be able to move the ball. If the turnovers are equal, we will win.

  16. GAWolf 11/14/2007 at 10:06 PM #

    Ummm…. anyone watching the UNC/Davidson game? Looks like a home game in the Dean Dome and Davidson ain’t skeered.

  17. choppack1 11/14/2007 at 10:13 PM #

    The bad news for us is that if you look at the same total TD info – we’ve only got 1 more than Wake.

    It’s really this simple – we don’t turn the ball over – and play the D we’ve played in the second half of the season – we should win. Wake’s D is similar statistically to UVa, UNC, and Miami. We had good success against 2 of those 3 moving the ball.

    Of course, we’re playing a team that takes care of the ball and makes teams make mistakes. Wake will be well-prepared – they will force our team to play disciplined ball: We should be terrified of the way both Miami and UNC burned us on the big plays. We’ll have to play the entire field and everyone on D will have to do their job.

  18. Octavian 11/14/2007 at 10:15 PM #

    I think we need to continue the trend and get some turnovers in order to win. That and maybe get a runback from Blackmon. Mr.O, will you be at Gary’s Old Towne after the game?

  19. Mr O 11/14/2007 at 10:38 PM #

    Octavian: I will meet you there.

    The larger point on those statistics is that Wake lives off of defensive and special team TDs. Even on offense, they don’t typically drive down the field methodically on you. Against BC last year, they had 280 yards of offense and 130 of that came on two plays for TDs. If you stop the big play against Wake Forest and don’t turn the ballover then they are very beatable.

  20. choppack1 11/14/2007 at 11:26 PM #

    O – I’m worried about those big plays. That’s the one area our D has struggled the last 2 weeks. A couple of huge plays to the U and one to the Heels. And you know Grobe will be setting us up perfectly for a couple of these in a game where points will likely be hard to come by. (I say that, but our O has done VERY well vs. the solid D’s of UVa and UNC.)

  21. highstick 11/15/2007 at 12:11 AM #

    GAwolf, not only was Davidson not “skeered”, they must have played pretty well. But, the Tarhole fans are already saying how the refs screwed them, wouldn’t let Tyler move, etc. By the way, did he get a “technical”..

    We had a committe party at our country club tonight. I wore my bright red blazer since they said the attire was “festive casual”. I either looked like Santa Claus or Sidney Lowe,,,take your pick!

  22. Ismael 11/15/2007 at 3:17 AM #

    i’m not that worried about big plays, im more worried, if you can call it that, that Evans makes good decisions. For all the nailbiting of the UNC game, 14pts from INT’s is hard to overcome.

    I look to having another solid day running the ball because that is one thing that should always work, good OL play. UNC was bound and determined not to let DE beat them which is why they didn’t play 8 in the box. If WF plays 8 in the box, DE will beat them like he did ECU and UVa.

    I would make a prediction but I haven’t seen WF play enough this year. Whooping the Tarholes and then getting whooped worse than we did by Climpsun is hard to gauge. I also fear a “letdown” game and it would be understandable a bit, but i think TOB is keeping them grounded. If we beat Wake (even keep it uncomfortably close if we lose), as sound as they are, AFTER beating our archrival, that says more to me about what kind of coach TOB is than anything.

  23. cornellpackfan 11/15/2007 at 9:15 AM #

    Looks like ESPNU has picked up this game, hopefully we don’t have to put up with larry coker again. he was so miserable last time during the Miami game.

  24. branjawn 11/15/2007 at 10:33 AM #

    cornellpackfan, are u gonna watch from home? i went up to Benchwarmers last saturday. the game was actually on 2 tvs! (sarcasm implied)

  25. newt 11/15/2007 at 10:59 AM #

    As O’Brien pointed out on his coach’s show, Wake is a lot better football team than the one we played last week, and we’ll have to play a lot better to win.

    Fact is, we haven’t beaten a team as good as Wake. Maybe UVA, certainly not ECU, Miami, or the other big state university.

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