01/30/2014 at 10:02 AM #39181
This update might get lost in the post-game threads, but let’s look at where the ACC stands after the first month of the conference schedule.
[See the full post at: One Month In…]01/30/2014 at 10:19 AM #39183
Excellent food for thought. Our schedule does lighten up, but as your data always shows…double edged sword. You really have more pressure to win every time out (against lesser foes), and your chance to get Top 50 wins is limited. We need TN to stay above that line because it’s not only a Top 50 win, but also a Top 50 ROAD WIN. That’s the kind of stat that wins a lot of tiebreakers, should we finagle our way back on the bubble.01/30/2014 at 10:31 AM #3918513OTParticipant
I think Wake should be ahead of State at this point, since they beat State and have a more impressive resume. However, there is no way I think Wake is better than State, not as long as the Deacons have their current coach.
I still think the ACC will send 6 teams to the NCAAT- Syracuse and Duke with very high seeds, UVA and Pitt with possibly a top 4 seed, plus UNC with an 8th or 9th seed, and FSU also in that range.
State has a very difficult stretch coming up. The last thing they need Saturday is a lopsided loss, but any loss in Chapel Hill is a bad one. The Pack has all but won enough games to make it to the NIT, but they need more than 2 or 3 wins to finish out the regular season.
But after last night, I’d be surprised to see this team do a dive. They should avoid the Wednesday ACCT muddle if Warren continues to lead and if Lewis, Lee and Washington continue to improve.01/30/2014 at 10:31 AM #39186Prowling WoofieParticipant
Great breakdown, VaWolf.
Appreciate the time taken to pull this together.
And yes, BJD – it does add a certain amount of pressure to win the games against the lesser opponents from here on out. The TN win will look very good at season’s end…
Saturday will be key – we don’t HAVE to win, but we CAN’T get decimated over there.01/30/2014 at 10:56 AM #39189blpackParticipant
Great stats/info. It’s time to go into the CH and get a win. I think we get them when they come to Raleigh, just like WF will lose to us, but it would be great to sweep U*NC and Miami. Easier said than done. The team has had a good week, let’s hope the mo continues.01/30/2014 at 11:10 AM #39192
Wake’s head to head win means bupkus, unless we are Top 50 at the end and provides them a quality win. The committee does NOT look at head to head results to determine the fate of conference mates. Their job is to see who stacks up best against the field, not against one another.01/30/2014 at 11:14 AM #39193MikeParticipant
One other point – dont look know but Cincy is sitting strong at 19-2 and ranked 13. Not sure where they are in the RPI – how does a road loss against Cincy help/hurt us in the RPI and strength of schedule? At the time, early in the year, none of us were sure how good/bad Cincy would be.
Cincy’s only 2 losses are to a New Mexico at 16-4 and a city rival Xavier at 15-5.01/30/2014 at 11:18 AM #39195ryebreadParticipant
Great work VAWolf.
As it stands today, I think the ACC gets 6 in (the top 5 + UNC). UNC, FSU, State and WF have a chance to play their way in or out.
State got a big win last night, but FSU and WF missed golden opportunities. For every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction.
NC State really needs a win over UNC. With our luck, the top 5 beating UNC team shows up and is paired up with an officiating crew that really studies the “tendencies.”01/30/2014 at 11:21 AM #39197
State lost to Cincy, so it doesn’t matter very much how they do come Selection Sunday. A better W/L record would help State’s SOS, but that will be a pretty minor effect over-all.01/30/2014 at 11:23 AM #39199MikeParticipant
Thanks VaWolf – I know losses are losses and W/L record is always beneficial. Just curious what a “good” loss on their court might mean. I still think the MZ loss on our court will end up being the one we cannot afford.01/30/2014 at 11:36 AM #39201TexpackParticipant
With two game left against an improving UNC-CH we may end up with the remaining schedule being equally as difficult as the competed portion was.
A win on Saturday and we will move squarely onto the bubble.01/30/2014 at 11:45 AM #39203
Personally, I don’t believe that there is such a thing as good loss. I believe that the best you can hope for is that your losses are not face-palm worthy and truly embarrassing.
I’m also not convinced that the so-called bad losses matter all that much when it comes down to picking through the bubble. Usually every team among the last 5-10 to pick from has warts on their resume. It’s alot easier to see who the Bubble teams have beaten than trying to decide how to evaluate a 20-pt loss to #10 versus a 2-pt loss to #25.01/30/2014 at 1:10 PM #39205TexpackParticipant
Agreed VaWolf. The last team is is basically the winner of the Fat Chick Bikini Contest.01/30/2014 at 5:15 PM #39208PapaWolfParticipant
Amazing analysis, thank you!01/30/2014 at 6:30 PM #39209
I was looking at Joe Lunardi’s prediction on ESPN. I’m kind of scratching my head at his prediction that the PAC 12 will get 7 teams. I understand Arizona is undefeated. No other ranked teams in that league. Yet they are holding down a majority of the bubble spots. I’m not going to waste my time researching the PAC 12 at this point. Can anybody shed any light here?01/30/2014 at 7:56 PM #39210
AP rankings are worthless. Look at RPI or The Dance Card.01/30/2014 at 8:00 PM #39211wufpup76Keymaster
I’m not going to waste my time researching the PAC 12 at this point. Can anybody shed any light here?
^Has to be purely numbers based … Not one resume sticks out aside from Arizona’s. As you said, no need to worry about it at this point. I’d be shocked if they sniffed six bids. Nobody outside of ‘Zona did anything of real relevance in the non-con (Arizona St. lost on neutral court to Miami; Washington lost on neutral court to BC – lollll) .. I’d give a clear edge to the ACC in that department. Problem for the ACC at this point is being ‘top heavy’ (good imagery, but still).
I feel confident about the ACC getting six though, seven may be possible (we – NC State need for it to be) – but we’ll see. FSU and Unx appear to be the front-runners for numbers 5 and 6, respectively … NC State, Wake and Clemson are still alive for number seven. State is definitely alive for sliding into the ‘comfortable’ fifth slot thanks to the win last night and our upcoming schedule (Unx twice, Wake at home, and other opportunities like Syracuse + Pitt). Wake’s still alive for number six having beaten State and Unx … I do not expect this to last, though. We’d better trounce them in Raleigh, and I foresee plenty of losses for them on the horizon. We’ll see what Clemson does, but they have to be stalwarts down the stretch and I can’t see that against their schedule. Our game at their place may not even matter much by Feb. 18th for either team, but we’ll see. The schedule was not in our favor on this one (going there).
Bottom line, we’re still alive! For now! 🙂
Edit: I am fully aware that bid allocation has nothing to do with ‘conference vs. conference’ – it’s each team for itself. Grouping those teams by conference just makes illustrating a point simpler.01/30/2014 at 8:55 PM #39213choppack1Participant
I would say we are on the bubble right now. We were only 7 spots away from “in” before the FSU game.
The key to our last 10 games will be to hold serve at home and to beat the bottom half teams on the road. If we do that I think there’s a great chance we’ll have a strong enough RPI to get an at-large bid.01/30/2014 at 10:57 PM #39219
If we split UNC and find a way to win one of the games at Syracuse or Pitt then we would get two solid resume building wins. Then we need to win 4 or 5 out of the remaining six. That would give us 20 or more wins with a chance earn more in the ACC tourney.
When I saw the schedule at the beginning of the year I named February, “Roaduary.”
How in the world did we get a schedule like that?
I hope Florida State starts to fall apart. That would help. Better if Carolina did, but let’s be real. The powers that be love them and they would have to lose a lot more to get counted out. Florida State just won the National Championship in Football, so I’m not worried about their feelings for a few years.01/30/2014 at 11:37 PM #39221wufpup76Keymaster
^Actually, as VaWolf noted in the OP, we need FSU to continue to do well. They’re our only solid top 50 win … For now, we need them to stay there. We beat Pitt and/or Syracuse, then FSU can do what they want to 🙂01/31/2014 at 7:21 AM #39223
Do remember that the committee does NOT look at conference mates as “either/or” – it’s much better for us for FSU to play well and stay a “quality win” (Top 25 would really be nice) rather than fall out of the at-large pool.01/31/2014 at 6:09 PM #39260
^Good Point. I guess I was just looking at it from the standpoint of finishing better than FSU. I think we have a shot at finishing 5th or 6th as of right now.02/06/2014 at 7:27 AM #39886StateFansKeymaster
It does not get any more simple — if we want to have any reason to hold on to conversations and hope about an NCAA Tournament bid we MUST win at Miami on Saturday. Period.
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