Last Look at the Bubble

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This topic contains 22 replies, has 12 voices, and was last updated by  GoldenChain 9 months ago.

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  • #132177

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    It’s hard to believe that the regular season is already over. It’s been a great ride so far and I never expected to be able to say that considering wh
    [See the full post at: Last Look at the Bubble]

    #132178

    Pack78
    Participant

    Interesting stuff-had we beaten GT for the 3rd seed, we would most likely get the Cheats in the quarterfinals-our first game and their second…win that one and probably Dook next. As it is, hopefully see Clemmons in the quarters after the second round followed (probably) by UVA…we MAY be better off this way.

    #132184

    PackFan
    Participant

    ^I think so. I’d rather play Clemson and get another shot at a slightly less invincible looking Virginia team. Either way, a great season and possibly a sign of things to come.

    #132186

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Lunardi just said he has Notre Dame in with wins over Pitt and Va Tech.

    #132188

    choppack1
    Participant

    So Vawolf – what are your thoughts on what we need to do, if anything in the tournament to secure a bid? Personally, it seems to me that we need to win Wednesday to have a relaxing Sunday. All the brackets have us in, but our metrics don’t correlate to a top 10 seed.

    #132191

    MrPlywood
    Participant

    but our metrics don’t correlate to a top 10 seed.

    Similar to the difference between the path of a 3 and 5 seed in the ACC tourney, I’d be fine with an 11 or 12 seed in the NCAA. The first round my be technically tougher that meeting an 8, but the second round is more attractive than meeting a 1 – even though none of the 1s seem invincible.

    #132192

    GoldenChain
    Participant

    VA obviously excellent work.

    This is a question I have: is there a rubric for like the “last 6 games of the regular season” or something? Sort of a late season fade/momentum thing. Part of me feels like how you do sliding in is a relative predictor of how you will do in the post season.
    In my book Clemson sort of swooned down the stretch as did Louisville. Wouldn’t surprise me if they both made early exits in the postseason. I’ll even throw unx in there because of ending the season the same way they started it, 1-2 in the league.
    Who was the coach at Clemson (I think he went to Auburn after that) who like had a 4 loss season or something but all the losses were in the last 3 weeks of the season then they made an early exit in the post season. (of course I’m sure there are examples of teams that catch fire in their conference tourney and end up making the sweet 16 but those have to be the exception because they lack MO going into their conference tourneys).

    #132193

    MrPlywood
    Participant

    In my book Clemson sort of swooned down the stretch as did Louisville.

    AFAIK there is no such quanitfier.

    Okladamnhoma passed out, fell down the stairs and couldn’t get up yet they are still a 10 as per Lunardi. Palm bent over backwards rationalizing that they had done enough early in the season to still be in.

    #132198

    YogiNC
    Participant

    Who was the coach at Clemson (I think he went to Auburn after that) who like had a 4 loss season or something but all the losses were in the last 3 weeks of the season then they made an early exit in the post season.

    King of the cupcakes, Cliff Ellis, who is now at Coastal Carolina in Conway, SC. He’s won over 800 games but considering his wins came over competition quite different than more lofty 800 games winners, well …

    Smarter than the average bear

    #132239

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    So Vawolf – what are your thoughts on what we need to do, if anything in the tournament to secure a bid?

    I think that State’s good. Obviously I don’t want to lose to BC, but I think that State has done enough.

    I also think that the miserable OOC schedule has degraded State’s RPI ranking so much that a poor seed is nearly assured almost no matter what State does in the ACCT. But for this year, just making the NCAAT should be a great calling card to use when KK goes recruiting for ’19 freshman.

    #132240

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    is there a rubric for like the “last 6 games of the regular season” or something? Sort of a late season fade/momentum thing.

    I think that in the past, that finishing strong against good competition was a plus and stumbling down the stretch was an issue. However several years ago, the Selection chair specifically said that all wins were treated the same no matter when they occurred. I have also documented several times where stumbling down the stretch clearly wasn’t used to give out bids.

    However, if the stumbling was caused by the loss of a key player that was not going to be available for the NCAAT….then the Selection Committee would include that in their deliberation. I specifically remember a mid-major that did not get a bid because their best player was lost late in the season.

    #132241

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Lunardi just said he has Notre Dame in with wins over Pitt and Va Tech.

    Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet a huge sum of money on it.

    #132242

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    I think what we haven’t seen is the return of a key player just prior to postseason play (i.e. Colson). We’ll see soon enough how the committee views this in Notre Dame’s case.

    #132273

    13OT
    Participant

    I don’t see the ACC getting 11 teams in the NCAAT, just like I don’t see 9 Big XII teams making the Dance. The Selection Committee, at least in my opinion, will likely try and equal things out a little.

    Regardless of what happens in the ACCT, I think UVA, Duke, UNC, Clemson and Miami are in. I don’t think an opening loss for any of these will matter much for their seeding. I also think VT, FSU and the Wolfpack will make it if they lose today, but other teams’ successes could make FSU and State sweat a little on Selection Sunday. They’ll likely get in, but to me FSU simply isn’t a very good team outside Tally, and I think that’ll be proven again today.

    I think Louisville is going to get in, and Syracuse just might, especially if they win twice. I don’t see ND getting in with less than 3 ACCT wins, and although BC isn’t going to get in, the game today worries me. Despite State’s obvious won-loss improvement, I haven’t seen any significant defensive improvement. The Eagles are a well-coached team with two quality players who can go for 30 on any given day. I doubt Robinson will have another bad offensive game against us.

    If State continues its poor defense, I hope Omer Yurtseven stays out of foul trouble and continues his consistent play. Without him on the floor, I don’t think the Pack will spend much time in the post-season.

    And I’d like to thank the ACC Comish, John Swofford, for moving the ACCT to NYC. I haven’t heard today’s weather forecast, but I hope the snow there today makes the March 1980 ACCT snow in Greensboro look like a dusting.

    #132280

    BassPacker
    Participant

    Don’t see ACC getting 11 teams in either….which worries me that the Pack is not a lock. A loss today against BC, a run by da Ville, ND and Cuse, they could potentially pass Pack in NCAA at large bids. Beat BC today and feel better Pack is in. Lose today and better have some thick gloves to cover those fingernails.

    #132617

    choppack1
    Participant

    Yes. We have placed ourself at the mercy of the committee.

    #132667

    Texpack
    Participant

    Yes. We have placed ourself at the mercy of the committee.

    I’ll be concerned until I see us on the board. I’m amazed at all of the people having us as a lock. I hope they are correct.

    #132668

    choppack1
    Participant

    Me too texpack. Our RPI is the worst of any team “in”. We did ourselves zero favors with our first round loss combined with the Georgia tech loss. Win either of those games and we are on easy street. Most brackets have us in but this year has been a case study of what happens when bad scheduling meets with a bad last last 3 games. I think a lot of wolfpackers are whistling through the proverbial graveyard. If we are a 10 or 11 that will show just how close we were to being out of this thing.

    #132670

    choppack1
    Participant

    Dance card is updated and we are #34. Lunardi has a down a couple of spots. Bracket matrix has us in 72 of 76 and a 10 seed. Going to be sweating it come mañana

    #132761

    WolfpackCoach17
    Participant

    Syracuse made it in a couple of years ago with an RPI 70+ RPI. That I believe was the highest ever. This year, NC State was 64 and Arizona State was 66. Is that the second and third highest of all time? It’s hard to find research on that and thought VA Wolf might know. I remember we made it with a 63 one year but can’t remember higher.

    #132781

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Syracuse made it in a couple of years ago with an RPI 70+ RPI. That I believe was the highest ever.

    When I first built the RPI ranges that I use for a quick and dirty test, there was one team that had something like #75. So SYR was the second team >70 since I’ve began tracking in the days of the Herbble.

    Earlier on in the season, there was a quote from the Selection Committee chairman that there had only been one team with an RPI >75 to get a bid. He didn’t mention the team or the year.

    #132785

    Texpack
    Participant

    Syracuse made it in a couple of years ago with an RPI 70+ RPI. That I believe was the highest ever.

    When I first built the RPI ranges that I use for a quick and dirty test, there was one team that had something like #75. So SYR was the second team >70 since I’ve began tracking in the days of the Herbble.

    Earlier on in the season, there was a quote from the Selection Committee chairman that there had only been one team with an RPI >75 to get a bid. He didn’t mention the team or the year.

    New Mexico State with an RPI of 78 iirc was something like 28-2 and regular season champs in the Ponderosa Athletic Association one year.

    #132797

    GoldenChain
    Participant

    New Mexico State with an RPI of 78 iirc was something like 28-2 and regular season champs in the Ponderosa Athletic Association one year.

    Dude say what you want but that was the PON DER OSA AA! not many people can say they were 28-2 after a season of that action! DUDE!

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