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Well…here we go!! As the calendar turns to 2015, Wolfpack fans need to make no mistake about the high level of importance that this week has on NC S
[See the full post at: BBall: Taking stock of NCAA Tournament positioning]Someone needs to tell this fool that it’s only December. Tournament predictions are worth as much as the oil change coupons you get for losing the Quick Lane Bowl.
Great stuff, thanks! Here we go! Basketball pretty much twice a week for the next couple of months. I’d feel a lot more comfortable if we had one more win right now, but we’ll just have to make it up.
GO PACK!
Codebrown, to be fair, the author is not making ‘predictions’. The author is merely projecting the tournament if it were to start today. I don’t have a problem with that.
I’m really not sure this is an NCAA worthy squad. We could end up being one, but I would put us at 40/60 in/out as a prediction. If we don’t beat Cincy we have to really over achieve in the conference to get in. I’ve been hyping the bigs for a little over a year and they keep laying eggs on the offensive end. I still think that group can be a superior group for us, but they’re taking a lot longer to develop than I thought they would.
Eye test says we aren’t a tourney team. That can easily change but they are going to have to do it on the floor. Going to have to knock off a top team or two to get a serious look.
I think the most important thing State can do to get in the Dance is to achieve at least a .500 ACC record. Six games vs Duke, UNC and UVA plus Louisville and Syracuse will be difficult. But this tough schedule will also give the Pack plenty of chances to get to or above .500 in the league.
As far as Syracuse is concerned, it’s unlikely CBS and the NCAA would exclude the Orange if they were a bubble team. The importance of star power for tv was pretty clear to me in Ohio State’s selection as the last one in on football selection Sunday.
Our ACC schedule is brutal. We play most of the bottom feeders only once, and they are away games. I’m thinking .500 will be a good achievement, but maybe not enough to make the tournament.
As it stands today, I wouldn’t have been surprised by any of the following:
#11 or #12 seed
Last 4 In
First 4 Out
Or just plain ol’ ‘Out’Thankfully ‘we’ (as in the staff & program) play the numbers game really, really well – so any number of wins will typically have us close to ‘bubblicious’. Also thankfully, we have plenty of opportunities to garner some solid wins ahead – including numerous chances at ‘signature’ victories (Duke, Louisville, Virginia).
Currently, this team has ‘bubble’ written all over it – but it is still way too early for labels (positively or negatively). Plenty of basketball and opportunities lie ahead.
As for Miami – agree on the objective analysis. If you want to give them a 10 seed fine, but similar (or better resumes) should be around that seed line as well. There may be some confirmation bias taking root with this seeding. Their win @ Florida is not listed as a ‘good win’, but theoretically is the main reason they are seeded this highly. Miami’s win @ UF is also the primary reason they were ranked – UF was Top 10 at the time. Obviously UF has proven not to be a Top 10 or really a Top 25 team to this point in the season.
One thing I give the selection process and selection committee a ton of credit for is that you typically do not see any such confirmation bias in the selections. Seeding can be called in to question at times, but generally raw data and results rule the day for the selection process. That gets my respect. Teams are selected and seeded on merit, not laundry.
There are of course other factors for selection, such as how you finish and if it’s statistically close then ‘eye test’ can come into play – but the factors for selection are always the same: wins, who the wins were against, where the wins took place, schedule strength (this cannot be undervalued), cpu numbers, bad losses, good/bad finish.
That’s the beauty of Gottfried’s scheduling philosophy – build your team for March and play the numbers game to give yourself every opportunity to ‘just get in’. Once you’re in, anything can happen. Of course, we don’t want to perpetually be on the bubble – but if you play a good schedule and win enough then you won’t be. And, even if you lose then you can still work your way back in with some wins – like State’s run late last season that propelled them into the field. Still plenty of time left this season for this thing to go any which way.
Thanks for the discussion point. I was going to put up a ‘week in review / look ahead’ for State + the conference, but I think I’ll shift that to tomorrow so as not to push down this thread (or if VaWolf or anyone puts up an RPI / OOC review thread I’ll wait till next week đ ).
or if VaWolf or anyone puts up an RPI / OOC review thread
Waiting on UC game to complete the preseason.
I have a silly question – who decided for the Cincy game to be at 4:00 on Tuesday, a normal “work day”? Students are gone. People who work are actually working Tuesday before New Years break. RBC will be lucky to have family and close friends there and a quiet crowd. If it were New Year’s Eve, I would get a 4 start. New Year’s day I would get a 4 start.
I was wanting to go and was going to buy tickets but not at 4.
or if VaWolf or anyone puts up an RPI / OOC review thread
Waiting on UC game to complete the preseason.
Cool – I thought so. Look forward to it.
Thanks for letting me know. I’ll just put up a game thread tomorrow.
Thatâs the beauty of Gottfriedâs scheduling philosophy â build your team for March and play the numbers game to give yourself every opportunity to âjust get inâ.
So… Herb’s philosophy… JK, them’s fightin’ words around here.
I want to stick with MG for the long haul as i believe he is our best shot to get us to a championship. However, i am concerned how much recruiting has dropped off since Lowe left. MG can definitely coach a whole lot better, but unless these current kids really blossom over the next 2 years (which i think they can), we are looking at a Herb -like Tourney team. That means we make it but get bounced in the round of 64 or maybe 32.
So⌠Herbâs philosophy⌠JK, themâs fightinâ words around here.
Haha I flirted with going there but held off.
I have a silly question â who decided for the Cincy game to be at 4:00 on Tuesday, a normal âwork dayâ? Students are gone. People who work are actually working Tuesday before New Years break. RBC will be lucky to have family and close friends there and a quiet crowd. If it were New Yearâs Eve, I would get a 4 start. New Yearâs day I would get a 4 start.
I was wondering the same thing. There must be a reason, but damned if I’ve figured it out yet. Didn’t want to go head to head with the Belk Bowl in case we landed there???
^Yeah, there were some games in the middle of the day today as well (like Texas-Rice and BC-UMass Lowell) … must be a “it’s holiday season” deal with respect to scheduling.
Somebody please provide some incite to bball recruiting for next season. We have landed exactly no one, so far. I know who the targets are but I have no idea where we stand. Write an article…start a blog. Somebody talk.
Taking a look at the Probability of winning this week is at least encouraging from a percentage standpoint: vs. Cincinnati 66%, vs. Pitt 67%. Looking at the probability to win before the game starts and the results we have the following over the last 5 years plus the current one. (KenPom: + = >50% probability to win before the game, – = <50%)
2015
+ 10-1 [0.909] (Wofford)
– 0-2 [0.000]
Total (-1+0) = -12014
+ 14-3 [0.824] (NCCU, Missouri, Miami)
– 8-11 [0.421] (Tennessee, Notre Dame, FSU, Miami, Pitt, Miami, Syracuse, Xavier)
Total (-3+8) = +52013
+ 22-4 [0.846] (Oklahoma State, Wake Forest, FSU, Temple)
– 2-7 [0.222] (Duke, UVA)
Total (-4+2) = -22012
+ 18-2 [0.900] (Georgia Tech, FSU)
– 6-11 [0.353] (Texas, St. Bonaventure, Miami, VT, UVA, Georgetown)
Total (-2+6) = +42011
+ 13-0 [1.000]
– 2-16 [0.111] (George Mason, Clemson)
Total (0+2) = +22010
+ 13-5 [0.722] (Northwestern, Florida, UVA, UNC, VT)
– 7-11 [0.389] (Marquette, FSU, Duke, Miami, Clemson, FSU, South Florida)
Total (-5+7) = +2With Back to Back to Back games against @UVA, Duke, and UNC following the Pitt game it’s critical for State to win both games this week.
Somebody please provide some incite to bball recruiting for next season. We have landed exactly no one, so far. I know who the targets are but I have no idea where we stand. Write an articleâŚstart a blog. Somebody talk.
If there was something to say, wouldn’t the sites that specialize in recruiting already have the info up?
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