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Not much going on around here, so I thought I would poke things a bit.
In the past, I have seen Doeren get a lot of criticism for his 4th down playcalling. I would criticize him for many things, but being too aggressive on 4th down is NOT one of them. As a matter of fact he is (like most coaches) far too conservative. This is from a 2014 study in the NFL, but I suspect the lessons apply in college FB.
If the benefit of going for it is so clear, why are coaches choosing to kick so often? The authors of Hidden Game of Football suggest that the current 4th down doctrine in football is a hold-over from the early days of the sport. Back in the day, teams were lucky if they mounted one successful scoring drive all game. A good punt basically ensured the opponent wouldn’t score on their ensuing possession.
David Romer’s explanation goes a step further. He suggests that coaches are thinking more about their job security than their team’s chances of winning. Coaches know that if they follow age-old convention by kicking and lose, then the players get most of the blame. But if they defy convention and go for the 1st down and fail, even if it was the best decision, they’ll take all the criticism.
There are all kinds of other studies, but I’m too lazy to link them all for you. They all come to nearly the same conclusions.
The most precious thing in the game is the damn BALL. Keep it as much as you can! Don’t voluntarily just GIVE it away.
So this year, when we are all grumbling about how we fell just “that much” short in another game, I will be grumbling about being too conservative with the ball. I will not be grumbling about any failed 4th down conversions.
Curious to hear others thoughts on the topic.
LLW
Doeren makes the final decision on 4th down go/no go. He doesn’t make the play call if he is smart. You mention the pros. The TV cameras are on the OC making the calls as they should be.
I want our coach to make the decisions that give us the best chance to win. I’m not one to put the rent money on the table to place a bet.
I’m not so worried about 4th down as I am on 1st,2nd and 3rd down against teams like BC.
At first reading this sounds like a bit of a smart remark and it may have been intended that way but BC had/has a very good defensive line. DE Harold Landry is considered to be the best in the conference and one of the best in the nation. I thought BC’s game plan against us was well thought out and well executed.
By the same token our DL is one of the best in the country. Our starting 2 LB’s and NIK back are seniors. There is very little drop off if any when we rotate in defensive line and linebacker subs. Our back four is adequate.
It was intended as a smart a$$ remark especially after attempting to RUN THE BALL STRAIGHT AT BC on 1st,2nd and 3rd downs.
Damn nations.
McCallum
Grey, the point is that punting is MORE risky than going for it in many situations.
Says who?
Grey, I am sorry that you didn’t have time to read the article I posted. Maybe you could read the one kindly posted by PPP, it is also a great one. In case you don’t want to read the whole thing, here’s an excerpt from the second one:
Every single serious study of 4th-down decisions has found that, in most situations, teams would be better off by going for the conversion attempt rather than kicking. I’ve recently completed a study of 4th-down decisions that confirms what some fans already know, that it pays to be more aggressive.
To put it another way, the data shows that punting gives you less points than going for it would give you, on average. You win more by going for it. As I said earlier, punting has become thought of as the “safe” choice due to coaches concerns about who gets the blame, not who wins.
I believe punting is just plain wrong. Yes, even 4th and 19 from your own 5.
I agree with this coach 100%: Coach who never punts
LLW, thanks for starting an interesting thread. This topic came up about 6 years ago when some neighborhood Bostonian transplant was raving about the genius of Bellichek and I replied that going for it on fourth down was common knowledge for those with basic math skills. IMO, the same analysis should be applied to onside kicks. One would think that the Ivy League eggheads would start using the onside kick more often with the new 40 yard line kickoff placement in light of the recently new 25 yard line touchback placement. One major caveat to this line of thinking though and a huge pet peeve, kickers who onside the ball severely towards the sidelines and out of bounds. Why even bother? I guess directional kickers are still hard to come by.
If Dave is a chess player he’s probably not a very good one.
As I said earlier, punting has become thought of as the “safe” choice due to coaches concerns about who gets the blame, not who wins.
Your facts about going for it on 4th down are interesting. Is you conclusion that coaches take the “safe” route due to concerns about blame based on research or personal opinion. You have IMO co-mingled fact with opinion.
Perhaps most coaches believe, right or wrong, that being safe is the way to go. Teams who are behind late in a game tend to go for it on 4th down and many are successful. Should a team decide to go for it on every 4th down get ahead by doing that, the other team would go for it in order to catch up.
I would like to see the other teams go for it because we have a strong defense and while that is no guarantee we would win, I’d like our chances.
One thought would be to eliminate punting as an option. Good luck on getting that passed.
If Dave is a chess player he’s probably not a very good one.
Jose Capablanca he ain’t.
More like Jose Conseco.
McCallum
There is nothing safe about a punt unless you have ALL the pieces that are put together. Flipping the field ain’t a bad thing…if…
Football has 4 downs to retain possession for a reason. I don’t punt anymore.
Grey, as to the data on 4th down decisions, that is science based analysis. As to the WHY coaches tend to ignore the data, that is opinion.
LLW
To Punt or Not to Punt?
There are no absolute punting rules that fit every game during the season…
IF (I have a good Punter and a good Field Goal Kicker) {
If ( my Defense is better than yours ) { Outside of field goal range, I’m punting — most all the time }
IF ( my Offense is better than yours ) { Outside of field goal range, I’m not punting — most all the time}
IF BOTH { Outside of field goal range, it depends of game and situation….}}
ELSE { What difference does it make? }THEN ( Know the Rules, Follow the Rules ) { Know WHEN to break them… }
Sometimes, the element of surprise is your wildcard, you know…
POP!!!
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
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