01/01/2015 at 5:12 PM #67620
Happy New Year to Wolfpack Nation! It’s the first day of the New Year and a perfect time to summarize what has happened in the basketball preseason[See the full post at: 2014/2015 ACC Preseason Review]
Note: Sorry about the formatting issues. WordPress kicked my ass this afternoon. Hopefully I can find someone to give me a tutorial before the next RPI update.01/01/2015 at 5:55 PM #67622blpackParticipant
Thanks for the info. It is good stuff. I think State will get in again come March, but there is a lot of work to do.01/01/2015 at 6:14 PM #67624RickKeymaster
I hope he turns it around. This team just send like a complete mess.01/01/2015 at 6:14 PM #67625WulfpackParticipant
If we are out now (and I think most would agree) I don’t see how that changes in conference play without some shockers against the top tier. We are playing awful basketball right now. Starting ACC play 1-4 leaves almost no room for error.01/01/2015 at 7:26 PM #67636wufpup76Keymaster
Awesome as always – thanks 🙂
IMO, not being hard on Notre Dame at all. Data is data, facts are facts. Brey’s teams and schedules have always had a very ‘Herb-like’ feel to them. May have a solid team and some good wins but any lull at all dooms the team to bubble status (or worse) due to playing Prairie View A&M 10 times. This season especially … I’ll be very interested in seeing how the rest of the season plays out for them.
I really like the delta table showing the change in OOC schedules from ‘pre-season’ to conference season. Very neat. Pittsburgh’s drop of 99 spots is just astounding. I know Dixon loves his weak schedules, but dayum.
I don’t think it will happen, but Virginia Tech has a legit shot of finishing with a 300+ RPI. That should be close to a virtual impossibility for a current ACC team. Lose enough though and they could do it! Go Hokies go! #ACC
Let’s play a game: I’m setting the over/under for ACC teams finishing with a 200+ RPI at three. Three teams is a push. What is your guess, fellow proletariat??
I’m going with over. Might be a stretch, but I think four of those bottom teams find a way to finish with a 200+ RPI.01/02/2015 at 11:01 AM #67714
Great stuff, thanks. I love reading these kinds of posts.
I think the following expectations reflects our current level of play:
Must wins: Va Tech, Clemson, WF (done) 3-0
3 out of 5 wins: @WF, @FSU, @Clemson, @BC, @Miami 3-2
2 out of 3 wins (and really where we find out things): Syracuse, ND, Pitt 2-1
If we can produce these eight wins, this gives us 10 games to lose, the above three and then the following seven: @GT, @Louisville, UNC, @UNC, Duke, UVA, @UVA. I think we would need to win 2 of these 10 going into the ACCT to have a shot. This would leave us at 19-12 overall.
The interesting thing is the schedule. Technically, we could be 1-6 going into the must win Clemson game and still be on schedule, but having burned through 6 of our 8 losses, leaving a complete turn-around kind of season as our only hope. I think we’ll know whether there’s a realistic chance 5 games in. If we’re 1-4, we’re playing for an NIT berth. If we’re 2-3, we’re on schedule and have some must wins coming up before the end of January. If we’re 3-2, we’ve put it together and inside looking out.
Go Pack!01/02/2015 at 11:30 AM #6771713OTParticipant
Georgia Tech in and Syracuse out?
I don’t think so……………..01/02/2015 at 1:36 PM #67720BJD95Keymaster
76 – I shall guess under, because RPIs usually revert to the mean during conference play. Think VPI and 1 other will be 200+ (VPI may be in 270 range), 3 others between 150-200.01/02/2015 at 2:50 PM #67723JohnGalt78Participant
Brutal early ACC schedule for us. Break our spirit maybe or build backbone for later success? I hope for backbone…but there’s that hope thing poppin’ up as usual. GO PACK!01/02/2015 at 3:22 PM #67725wufpup76Keymaster
76 – I shall guess under, because RPIs usually revert to the mean during conference play. Think VPI and 1 other will be 200+ (VPI may be in 270 range), 3 others between 150-200.
^Yeah, I like playing the long shots though … 🙂01/02/2015 at 3:29 PM #67726PapaJohnParticipant
I like Charger17’s thought process, that’s the way I look at it as well.
JohnGalt78 notes the critical “will we / won’t we” turning point. Completely agree.
We’ve dug ourselves a hole, and I think we have five home games to make a reasonable NCAAT case. UVA, DU, UNC, ND and ‘Cuse. I think we have to beat one of the first three, and ND and Cuse. And of course, then win all the “should win” games.
Kills me, but I can’t see us pulling this off this year.01/03/2015 at 11:15 AM #67764choppack1Participant
This is where I think vawolf for giving us fantastic info on the bubble evaluation and seating info. We never go into a selection Sunday and have better info than the idiots who dominate the airwaves.
Unfortunately, we need to be aware of the bubble process…something I don’t see changing in the foreseeable future.01/03/2015 at 4:16 PM #68023
And I appreciate posters like chop that read the entries and point out stuff that I missed. It was also nice that no on trotted out the 20 win nonsense for making the NCAAT.01/03/2015 at 5:46 PM #68041tractor57Participant
I appreciate posts and threads like this. Less on the gnashing of teeth and more about the details that matter year to year.
Added to that it is nice to see State basketball teams (thought flawed) that actually look like basketball teams on the court. Robinson’s teams lacked proper talent but as I remember they did not give. Herb’s early teams showed some promise but the level was found quickly, Lowe’s teams were a hot mess. Gott’s teams so far I see some improvement but there is still a ways to go to get where I want the team to be.
The only thing I can say about 20 win teams and the NCAA tourney is they have a better chance than 10 win teams <g>.01/03/2015 at 7:08 PM #68056bill.onthebeachParticipant
// hey beej…
… that kid in the video looks exactly like HighStick his senior year at State !!!!#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!01/07/2015 at 9:58 AM #68308
I was checking out our RPI this morning and we’re setting at 52. Knowing for sure that a win tonight would no doubt boost our RPI, I’m not sure how a loss would affect it, maybe somewhat positively.
It was interesting to compare State’s RPI this morning with Temple and BYU:
RPI W-L SOS vs. Top 100 Best Win Worst Loss
Temple 34 11-4 41 3-3 2 Kansas 147 @ St Joes
BYU 37 11-4 28 3-3 31 Stanford 113 Purdue (neutral)
State 52 11-4 25 3-3 56 Pitt 113 @ Purdue
I was amazed at how State comes out tied or on top on all the criteria except best win. I know there are a lot of other factors, but it appears that if we traded the Pitt win for the Wofford loss (Wofford’s at 29 right now), we’d be setting 15 spots better in the RPI right now. Speaking of Wofford, their current portfolio confirms that just playing one more high RPI opponent does wonders for your RPI in the first half of the season. I don’t think it’s lost on anyone what a win in one of our next three games would do for us.
Go Pack!01/07/2015 at 2:51 PM #68333
I know there are a lot of other factors, but it appears that if we traded the Pitt win for the Wofford loss (Wofford’s at 29 right now), we’d be setting 15 spots better in the RPI right now.
Not true and not even close.
Trading a home win for a home loss would net you the exact same RPI and thus probably the same RPI ranking…regardless of the teams you try to switch results between.
But in this hypothetical world of yours, if the team you take a win away from was ranked just above State, then State could potentially move up one spot in the rankings.01/07/2015 at 5:33 PM #68350
VW – I’m sure you’re correct, I just didn’t realize the road games really matter that much. Temple is 3-4 in R/N games but that would work out to 4.2-2.4, essentially going from an actual 43% win to a factored 64% win. Does this offset their SOS being 16 spots lower than ours and resulting in an RPI of 18 spots better than us?
Has anyone ever thought of the NCAA tourney implications of playing 2 cupcakes on the road? For a team like State that has lived on the bubble, not only exchanging 300+ teams for 150 teams, but play a few on the road. Give up the revenue and earn yourself 10 RPI spots! Surely you’d make it back in merchandise sales!?!01/08/2015 at 8:18 AM #68533
I just didn’t realize the road games really matter that much.
I’m not sure what this means in the context of your earlier comment. Road wins do contribute alot more to positive RPI improvement than home wins, but I’m just not sure where your confusion lies.
Temple is 3-4 in R/N games but that would work out to 4.2-2.4, essentially going from an actual 43% win to a factored 64% win.
The biggest effect of weighting home/road wins differently is to move teams at the top of mid-major conferences up relative to the teams in the middle of power conferences. Your example illustrates this effect nicely.
But as the season wears on, many mid-majors will see their RPI ranking drop as their weaker conference SOS tends to drag down their ranking. That’s one of many reasons not to get too wrapped up in RPI early in the season…and especially why you shouldn’t get too worked up over how the RPI ranking changes from game to game.
It’s extremely important to understand the difference between the RPI calc and the ranking. A team’s ranking is affected by how it does, how its opponents do, how the opponents’ opponents do, how the teams around you in the ranking do AND how close the teams around you are bunched together. Alot of people tend to overlook those last two components when analyzing game to game changes.
I’m happy to let someone else do the mind-numbing math and just see where the results put State relative to the NCAAT. But the basic rules stay the same…winning is always good, losing is always bad….it’s just the magnitude of the “good” or “bad” that changes based on your opponent and game location.
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