You’ve got to understand that saying “ceiling” means there’s maybe a 10-15% shot he hits it. Just that such a ceiling exists. VERY different from the floor. PR and RW have set the bar very high, no doubt whatsoever.
I understand what ceiling means. But to say you think there is a 10% chance that he will be better than Rivers is to essentially say you think there is a 10% chance that he is a HOF QB. In the NFL’s modern era, which dates back to the 1950s, there have been 23 QBs selected for the HOF, and we know that Favre, Peyton, Brady, and Brees will join them, and also probably Warner, Roethlisberger, Eli, and Rodgers. So you are saying you think there is a 10% chance that Brissett is one of the top 35 or so QBs to play in the past 60 years.
It is possible, but I think you are overstating both his ceiling and the likelihood that he reaches it. That caliber of QB is usually much more of a standout in college than Brissett has been.
Just look at the first page of his Rotoworld page: http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/cfb/130836/jacoby-brissett. There are criticisms about inconsistency, fundamentals, accuracy, needing to get faster at progressing through his reads, spraying throws, getting rattled by pressure, and fumbling. One analyst rated him as the #18 QB in the nation in August. There are many positives noted as well, of course, but the point is that QBs of the caliber you are referencing don’t normally have these types of flaws in their game after 4 years of college football.
But if Jacoby’s accuracy stays this good, on top of his insane arm strength…just watch the dude’s mechanics. And his measureables are straight out of central scout casting.
I seriously doubt he will maintain his current accuracy of 77.9%. He is obviously going to face much better defenses going forward and also will not have the luxury of playing with a comfortable lead like he has had throughout this season so far. His accuracy was below 60% last season and was a weakness. I certainly hope it will improve this year given the experience he gained last year, but it isn’t reasonable to believe it will stay as good as it has been this year.
Anyway, having said all that, I’m a big JB fan and I hope you are right.
