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you are taking Villanova lightly at your own peril
Villanova had a great season. But their best victory by RPI was over VCU. Their second best victories were wins over Providence. That is fairly underwhelming.
Meanwhile, State beat Duke at home. Duke is better than Villanova. They also beat UNC and Louisville on the road, both more impressive wins than any of Villanova’s wins. So there is no doubt State is good enough to beat Villanova on a neutral floor. There is also no doubt that State can lose to almost any team, and can certainly lose to a team as good as Villanova.
Obviously, Villanova is the favorite. Duh. But State has a solid chance to beat them. And that’s why State’s fan base is excited about the matchup.