We can take ONE shot at an A-list candidate. ONE.
You have to weigh the quality of the candidate, along with the probability of “Getting to Yes.”
Even if one thinks Marshall is a better coach (I disagree), I think it is clearly outweighed by the significantly lower probability that he says yes. He’s a tough guy to read. You WILL have to offer more than $4M/year. I think it takes $5M minimum to get him to talk to you. Not sure we can get there. And it WILL be matched by the Kochs. I put the odds of landing him, AT BEST, around 20%.
Arch, on the other hand, will listen at $3.5-4M. And you can be certain that Dayton can’t match. It’s simply a matter of whether he chooses somewhere else. I would put the odds at around 70%, and it’s only that low because of the NC State/Charlie Brown factor. I could easily see us f-cking it up. AGAIN.
And you can’t take both shots. It will get out. Neither one of these guys will accept being sloppy seconds.
Somewhat agree we can’t give but one a contract, but we can interview both, give them a salary range, and see who seems the most “interested”. Then give that onethe contract and see if they sign it. Then move on to tier B if the deal won’t close.
