ACC Weekly Update (1-8)

Photo from News & Observer

Media types love to drone on about how hard it is to win on the road. Usually it comes across to me as just something to fill the air waves, but it was sure true this week in the ACC:

  • FSU over UNC
  • GT over Miami
  • WF over SYR
  • State over Duke

In contrast to these big upsets at home, ND goes into the Carrier Dome down two starters and beats SYR. I’m not sure if I need to think more of ND or less of SYR. As usual, time will tell.




I found it interesting that L’ville has no Top 100 wins so far this year…and is the only ACC team currently with that “distinction”.

Four ACC teams currently in the RPI Top 10 is nothing to sneeze at. Unsurprisingly, four of the ACC teams (including State) also have some of the hardest conference schedules to start off the New Year.

With the wide variation in schedule strengths, (both OOC and in-conference), it’s often worthwhile to take a closer look at who a given team has actually played and who they’ve defeated. If you go to the ESPN link (just below the RPI Summary Table), each team’s name is a hyperlink to their respective pages where their season to date is broken down. One of the most useful areas on this page is that ESPN’s summarizes the results of the last 12 games and all of the remaining games on their schedule. For instance, State’s first five ACC games are all against teams well on their way to the NCAAT:

This type of chronological breakdown along with the opponents RPI Ranking helps us gage how a team is playing over a given stretch of time…as well as highlighting particularly hard or easy stretches of their schedule. As I mentioned last week, State’s roughest stretch may well be the first five games of the ACC season.



Both Clemson and UVA went 2-0 last week and both made dramatic improvements in their RPI Ranking. Likewise, SYR’s 0-2 week is hard to miss.

But wins and losses don’t always show up like you would expect. For instance, UNC went 0-2 last week, but their mid-week loss to FSU actually resulted in a small increase in RPI Ranking and the butt-kicking by UVA was a pretty small drop. Without doing the math, you can see that road losses, especially to good teams, don’t always have a dramatic effect on RPI Ranking.

If you look at both trend graphs, you can easily see the effect of ND’s 2-0 week and that ND has moved into our “IN” category.

The Bubble is really depleted this week. I’m probably the only person classifying BC anywhere near the NCAAT. But I’ll give their win over Duke more credit than it probably deserves and put them there this week.



It’s obviously really early in the season, but the standings needed to be included so that I could point out that all of NC schools are tied at 1-2.

It’s also worth mentioning that only Pitt didn’t get at least one win out of the first three games of the conference schedule.

Other than UVA, I doubt that anyone would have guessed any of the other three teams that are currently in the top four places.



Overall, not a lot of can’t miss games this week.

SYR went 0-2 last week and gets to follow that up with a challenging week on the road against UVA and FSU. I haven’t seen the Orange play this year, but you don’t need any first-hand knowledge of their team to know that they are going to have to pick the pace up if they don’t want a four-game losing streak.

State’s games are spot-lighted this week by playing on the off-nights (and thankfully not on Monday).

Duke has already lost on the road to BC and State. They get two more chances this week to see if they can win on the road.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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    In the BB Press Module — there is a “Pending” folder for items awaiting a moderator’s review and approval…
    The first attempt was a New Topic — “The World We Live In… Aint The World We Grew Up In…”
    The second was as a comment on this Topic…


    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!

    The only thing in the “pending” folder that I found was something from an ECU fan from several years ago. I found two spam folders, I’ll look again for a second pending folder.


    Variations in RPI calcs.

    I plotted CBS and ESPN’s RPI rankings to see how much difference there is between the two.

    It’s a shame that State’s is one of the rankings with a large discrepancy…but for now, whatever ESPN has won’t affect our projections and conclusions.


    Watch out NCSU RPI 75 and 2-2 in the ACC with quality wins.


    Very nice write up as always. I have no illusions that there will be any mystery for the Pack come selection Sunday, but hay we can always let it play out and see what happens.


    Everything I know about the bubble I learned from Vawolf. Sadly, because I am a state fan I have had to learn a lot.


    I think our RPI will improve tomorrow even with a loss.

    I am thinking our “magic” number right now is 8 or 9. I think if we do that, we will have a bubblelicious RPI and lots of key wins that the NCAA likes. We need some little things like some of those cupcakes we played being better than they were the year before. Arizona, Penn State, UT and UNI remaining good would help too….but one of them will obviously need to faulter.


    Watch out NCSU RPI 75 and 2-2 in the ACC with quality wins.

    Don’t laugh…We are WAAAY ahead of Indiana…hehe


    Here’s a question on our Rpi- if we assume we go 10 and 8 in the Acc and have wins versus maybe 2 more ranked teams, is there any way our Rpi can go down? Our schedule strength over the season can only improve as weak ooc games get weighted less by stronger conference games, right?


    Around the ACC today…

    Tiggers beat ‘Canes by 9 at home…
    Noles over ‘Cuse by 11 in 2 OTs at home…
    Da’Ville over ‘Hokies by 8 at home…

    GaTech over Pitt by 15 on the road…

    Home Teams 3 – 1
    avg margin of victory == 8.5pts…

    The obvious point being that every game in the ACC is a tough game
    and it helps a whole lot to play at home…

    And just for fun… may I suggest “RPI don’t mean sh#t in ACC games” ???

    And in the nightcap….
    Those HOLES from Orange County Community College are struggling against the Irish up in South Bend up only 3 at the half …

    Here’s hoping the Irish can hold to the form…


    Keatts’ Wolfpack tips off in Charlottesville shortly after 6pm tomorrow…
    GO PACK!!!

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!

    Wolfmanmat – I’d we do that NY entirely uneducated guess us that we’d have a Top 50 RPI


    HOLES pull one out of their a$$es…

    Uncle Roy crying like a baby in the post game…

    GO PACK!


    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!

    Wolfmanmat – I’d we do that NY entirely uneducated guess us that we’d have a Top 50 RPI

    8-9 wins probably not enough. We’d have to get to 10 with a couple of biggies. I just don’t see the consistency yet. We have done better in the half court this week but that trend has to continue.


    The OCC schedule was so soft that we really cannot have enough conference wins (meaning instead of targeting a number, go win them all). In reality the number we need to win really depends on who we beat and who we lose to. Because of the non-conference and the 3 losses, we would seemingly need to make 9-9 to pass the “eye test” but I think if we can get a few more good wins (tomorrow would be absolutely huge) while not having any bad losses (GT, Pitt or WF), we might make it in depending on how the ACC tournament goes.

    That’s a lot of “ifs.” We should take one game at a time, strive to be better game to game and throughout the game. Next year we should improve the nonconference slate.


    Texpack – when I say 8 or 9 I mean that many wins with our remaining games (including ACC tournament). That should get us in the tournament. I think we’d have to at least finish 9-9 and win a tournament game. In theory that number would also allow us to go 8-10 and reach the ACC tournament finals (and lose) as well.

    But if we can 9 of our next 17 games, I think we dance. #cartwaybeforehorse.


    For what its worth I am enjoying seeing this years Pack grow. Likely they will not meet my goal (always a natty) but they have proved to be an interesting bunch.


    Agreed. I like wathing our team play.

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