ACC Recap and Analysis

There was a full slate of games on Saturday, with four blowouts (three of which were in the Triangle) and two nail biters. With both nail biters working out to State’s advantage along with a fairly easy win against VT, I think that this weekend was about as good as could be expected. With the bottom third to half of the ACC being so weak, some weekends are just not going to have a lot of exciting basketball.

With State’s next game coming on Tuesday, it seemed like a good idea to get this week’s entry up a day early…especially since Sunday’s game won’t affect any of our conclusions even if FSU had pulled off a shocking upset in C’ville. I’ll probably try to do next week’s entry on Sunday as well, since State will be @Clemson on Tuesday next week.

Here is the conference summary with the teams sorted by RPI (from CBS Sports) calculated after Saturday’s games.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Both Pitt and SYR fell in the grey area between regions and I “rounded up” in both cases. It doesn’t really matter what we do with the ‘Cuse and Pitt has earned some slack with their impressive climb through the Bubble:

 

 

Pitt’s rapid ascent is due to a 5-2 record with the losses coming @L’ville and @UVA. While a good streak can come through a scheduling quirk with a stretch of weak teams, Pitt has wins against Notre Dame, UNC, and Syracuse (x2) over the last three weeks. If we used the old “if the season were to end today” analysis, there is no way that the Selection Committee would pass Pitt over. Of course we can also fall back on the Dance Card (updated through Sat’s games) to support that conclusion:

 

 

I don’t know that the ACC will get 8 teams into the NCAAT. But it is at least possible, even if not highly probable.

Miami came up a little short at L’ville which was a huge missed opportunity for them (while protecting one of State’s Top 25 wins). Miami still has UNC at home and at Pitt for a couple of chances for a big/good win before the ACCT. Miami might get a bid wrapped up before the ACCT, but I’m just not feeling it based on the last couple of weeks.

We had a really good discussion last week over the strengths/weaknesses of the RPI and the selection process. While I’m generally OK with the Selection Committee’s decisions and the RPI (probably since State has consistently fell on the right side of the Bubble), there are a couple of ACC teams that the RPI doesn’t seem to judge that well. Let’s start with ND and look at their losses along with their top 100 wins:

 

 

ND’s RPI ranking is being held down by a ridiculously easy OOC schedule (currently ranked #327). They’re 4-4 against the RPI Top 50 which is good but not spectacular. It reminds me of L’ville’s results last year that earned them a four-seed (along with a lot of whining from the media). I looked at Jerry Palm’s bracket at CBS and he has ND as a 3-seed. I haven’t put a lot of time into studying seeding, so I’ll probably just go along with whatever Palm and Lunardi say until Selection Sunday.

While ND looks like that they are better than their RPI, UNC looks worse than their RPI ranking:

 

 

3-7 against the RPI Top 50 is not great, but since five of the losses are against the Top-25, it isn’t horrible either. But it just seems like a team with an RPI Ranking of 13 should do better. Palm has UNC as a five seed which is one spot lower than what you would calculate from their RPI ranking. It should be clear that UNC’s ranking is being driven by the #2 SOS ranking more than their W/L record.

Duke is getting a lot of discussion as a possible #1 seed. That just seems strange for a team that is in third place in their own conference, so I thought I would take a closer look.

 

 

Combine that record with the #6 SOS ranking and the #4 RPI ranking “feels” right. Until I pulled all of that stuff together, I figured that including Duke in the #1 seed discussion had more to do with the coach/history than results. But then again I’m just naturally biased against all things “blue”.

I still have a problem with a third-place team getting a #1 seed, but Duke is only a half-game behind ND:

 

If Duke can finish in second (or a tie for second) and then win the ACCT, then they probably have a #1 seed wrapped up. But a lot of dominoes in other conferences are going to have to fall just right to have two #1-seeds come out of the same conference.

With no mid-week game, there hasn’t been anything new to discuss about State since the win at Louisville. With Chris Jones getting kicked off of the team today, it seems unlikely that Louisville will finish the season on a strong note. If Louisville tails off, only time will tell if the Selection Committee takes into account that State won on the road BEFORE Jones was kicked off of the team or not. Opinions will vary, but I’m sticking with the projection that 3-1 will secure State a bid before the ACCT.

State will be a big underdog on the road in Chapel Hill, a favorite at BC and probably two close games at Clemson and Syracuse in Raleigh. So as with most things, we’ll see what we see.  And just maybe, we’ll find out why Washington didn’t play against VT.

Upcoming games this week in the ACC:

 

 

Not exactly a thrilling week of non-wolven games. One of the keys for the remainder of the season will be to keep focus in Chestnut Hill no matter what happens in Chapel Hill on Tuesday. In Palm’s bubble analysis of State, he says that less than a four-game differential between wins and losses usually means no bid….so State can’t give any more games away.

 

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Viewing 25 posts - 26 through 50 (of 63 total)
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  • #75195
    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    The more I think about it, the worse I feel. Then again, you know I’m a pessimist.

    Understandable, being a Wolfpack fan could turn sunshine into an eternal pessimist.

    #75196
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    If you need something to take your mind off of our annual Chapel Hill horror show, consider the following:

    Would you buy State’s stock right now, or Louisville’s?

    I’m picking State’s all day on that one. Louisville looking awful once again tonight. The only real positive they’ve got going for them (overall) is the fact that they’re a lock for the Tournament. That’s it though. Kinda reminiscent of HWSNBN’s last season at State. Decent to good start, lock for the tournament, but abysmal February culminating in consecutive blowout losses to last place Wake Forest, a 10-seed when they could’ve been a 3-seed, and a second round blowout loss to Texas when HWSNBN had already quit on the team (go Sun Devils!).

    Of course, Louisville has a better coach and their circumstances are lot different than that State team’s.

    #75197
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    ‘Ville definitely discombobulated right now. Trying to find a new identity and pull out of a nose dive at the same time.

    Not an easy task.

    #75198
    WolfWiz11
    Participant

    I’m probably one of the few on here who think Kyle Washington should be playing a lot more,

    I like KW’s offense, but there have been games where I’ve really tried to discern how our team plays defensively, and what I saw from KW was disheartening to say the least. It was like watching an old western where the bad guy just walks through the saloon doors, nay, kicks them open (KW being the door). And his rebounding was only okay, added to the fact that once he corrals a rebound, he wields the ball around so wildly, I actually wince every time. But he’s a pure stud on offense, that’s for sure.

    #75199
    BassPacker
    Participant

    Louisville is playing as bad as they look. Those uni’s make them look like a girls swim team in the 1920’s. Not sure what to expect from Pack tomorrow nite at the Hill. Its a must win as they come to have a shot at NCAA. Lose to Cheats and even go 3-1 finish, then one early in Acc, NIT here we come. I don’t see us going with 19-13 unless we win the ACC Tournament. I’m already tired of the DES legacy crap. Yes, he did great things specially with race in college basketball but he did things that put athletics ahead of academics which changed the playing field over at the Hill. I hope we destroy them in the Dean Dome. Probably won’t but heres to hope.

    #75200
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    ^^KW could turn into an All-ACC type player if he added some discipline to his game.

    Turn and box out instead of going for a 10% chance of a blocked shot (usually attempted on a low percentage shot that’s not going in). He’d probably be averaging 10 rebs/game if he simply did that one thing.

    Take better shots and play within himself and within the offense and he could be an efficiency monster on FG% and assists.

    Coulda, woulda, shoulda, of course.

    #75202
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    What better way to honor the legacy of DES than to have our DES (Des Lee) annihilate Paige on defense for 15 hard minutes before fouling out? Do that, and we take him out of rhythm, and thusly have a real puncher’s chance.

    Play it all vanilla, and JP and the goofy Hole beat writer can go ahead and file their stories early.

    #75203
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    And quit saying KW. ANGEL OF DEATH. If one must abbreviate, AoD will do.

    #75204
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Lville is in a free fall. Cards are burnt toast.

    #75205
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    We lit the match that started the burning of said toast. That’s something, damn it.

    It’s also neat that we match up so very well with what I think is clearly the 2nd best team in the country (Duke). I think we would beat them at least 3 or 4 times out of 10 on a neutral floor, with reasonably fair officiating.

    #75206
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    And quit saying KW. ANGEL OF DEATH. If one must abbreviate, AoD will do.

    Haha, well I certainly hope he is the Angel of Death for those who cheat tomorrow night.

    #75207
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    Louisville-GT has actually turned into an entertaining game. Some intensity showed up out of nowhere.

    #75208
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Game keys. Get physical with their bigs. They’re skilled and long but they’re also soft. Don’t think this is a game for frenchie, who I like. We need to attack their bigs on offense. Cat need to be cat and do what he do. Match or dominate Paige. Turner and lacy must have good shot selection, and we could use big games from the twins.

    #75209
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    I don’t know which is more painful…

    Watching the last two minutes of GaTech and Louisville or the stomach flu I’ve had all day….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #75210
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    Wow. It’s almost impossible to not feel bad for Georgia Tech this season.

    #75211
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Wow. It’s almost impossible to not feel bad for Georgia Tech this season.

    It’s the kind of team that goes on an angry, random run to the ACCT semis as revenge.

    #75212
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Yea, Tech blows another one. For as good of a player as Georges-Hunt is, he sure does make some bonehead plays at the end. There’s got to be a new coach there next year.

    #75213
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Yea, Tech blows another one. For as good of a player as Georges-Hunt is, he sure does make some bonehead plays at the end. There’s got to be a new coach there next year.

    I think they should hire Snoop Dogg just so his kid would go there. And to entertain me.

    #75214
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    I think they should hire Snoop Dogg just so his kid would go there. And to entertain me.

    I haven’t seen ‘Snoop & Son’ any at all, but I know that it is airing on at least one Espn network almost 24/7. I don’t know if I could take Snoop & Son in the ACC.

    Saw this linked on PP about Chris Jones.

    I’m guessing this was just the last straw? He apparently sent a threatening text to a female acquaintance, but this was after she was at his apartment and trashed his place. He’s the only one in trouble in this incident though, it seems. Hell, who knows what’s going on with that type of crap.

    No wonder Pitino + Louisville are just saying ‘No comment’.

    #75215
    13OT
    Participant

    Georgia Tech basketball has become the Rambling Train Wreck. No team in the ACC gets less out of their players than the Yellow Jackets, period.

    I wonder if Tech fans miss Paul Hewitt yet?

    #75218
    BassPacker
    Participant

    I’ve watched some of Snoop and Son. Not a bad show. Snoop is hard on his son at times and sets the family life you would not expect from a gansta pot head rapper persona father. Snoop Dog son verbally committed to Duke before signing with UCLA. Kid Dog was a top WR at a high dollar Catholic prep school in Vegas. That school looks more like a DII school than high school. Their staduim is bigger than App St and maybe even Duke.

    #75220
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Georgia Tech basketball has become the Rambling Train Wreck.

    The last two minutes last night was the worst case of the “yips” I’ve seen for anyone not playing on bentgrass…

    If they had been playing the Patriots… some body would have claimed they “greased the ball”…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #75221
    Texpack
    Participant

    I’ve been feeling this one for some reason. I am also a pessimist by nature but I keep hearing Rock The Casbah playing from the Owen Underground after The Nose got us back in that game with a double technical just before the half. Can’t wait for tipoff.

    #75223
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Just to change up the MO…

    Coach Gott took the team over to the Dome last night for a shoot around…

    Maybe that will exorcize some demons, calm some nerves or something … maybe not… can’t hurt…

    If would have let somebody know what he was up to…
    I’m sure the Ghosts on the South Smoking Porch would have loved to go along with ’em…

    If nothing else maybe it will be a small distraction for the some Holes…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #75226
    choppack1
    Participant

    No way the acc allows us to win this game.

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