Recruiting: the lost years impacting the current years

This entry will on a topic that we have discussed at various times over the last couple of years but I think remains relevant in light of NC State’s current struggles on the football field — recruiting.

Before this season started, we observed and discussed the talent deficiency within the Wolfpack program from the perspective of pre-season expectations in this entry. These points could be summarized by the following:

The ONLY NC State player to make the TOP 41 is Jacoby Brissett who received only one vote that was for a ranking somewhere between #11 and #15. Brissett completed 41 of 74 passes for 455 yards and three touchdowns as a Florida Gator but has yet to play a single down of football in the ACC. The junior was not recruited by Tom O’Brien and announced his transfer to west Raleigh after Dave Doeren took over in west Raleigh.

Additionally, just last November our own WV Wolf penned this entry that we ask you to spend a moment reading where he asked the question – “How bare was the cupboard?” when Dave Doeren took over. WV Wolf’s approach was to analyze talent within the NC State program during past coaching transitions through the lens of future NFL players. I really liked this approach as it generally ignores imprecise recruiting rankings and sets a relatively consistent standard across past years and coaching eras inside of the Wolfpack program.

So what did Coach Doeren have to work with when he arrived in Raleigh and how does that compare with the talent levels the previous 3 head coaches inherited?

10 players on Tom O’Brien’s first team in 2007 made it to the NFL.
13 players from Chuck Amato’s first team in 2000 made it to the NFL.
8 players from Mike O’Cain’s first team in 1993 made it to the NFL.

With all due respect to the players on the current roster, who on the 2013 Wolfpack team will be suiting up on Sundays? The first name that comes to mind is our kicker. Maybe Shadrach Thornton, maybe Dontae Johnson, maybe one or two of the guys on the d-line, maybe a healthy Rob Crisp. But all those are really big maybes.

Again, you should really go read that piece (linked here) to get a good feeling for the detail that WV highlighted.

This brings us to today — whereas earlier this week I was working on a quick entry that I found expanding as I wrote into a larger analysis regarding the quality and quantity of FBS level talent currently within NC State’s upper classes. The entry started to get so detailed that I realized that the odds were low that I’d ever finish it. Well, thank goodness for the fact that ‘great minds think alike’ as this afternoon our good friends at Pack Pride had done the work for us and it is linked here.

Folks, the numbers are INSANE. Of the 65 signees from the 2010, 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes that comprise what are our senior classes, redshirt juniors, juniors and redshirt sophomores, only 28 remain enrolled at NC State and only 25 are contributors on the 2-deep roster. Those three recruiting classes were ranked 48th, 75th and 61st — and that was including the full allotment of players!! Those rankings equate to LAST in the ACC in 2 of the 3 years, peaking at 9th in the ACC for the 2010 class.

Tom O’Brien’s final “full” recruiting class, the attrition has been brutal. We’re talking about players who enrolled three years ago… the team’s true juniors and redshirt sophomores, players with upside left to develop and at least a couple of seasons of eligibility remaining. Just eight of the 23 signees are even still on the roster after one of them, defensive end Joe Wright, was recently dismissed from the team.

Of those eight, none are listed as a starter on the two-deep depth chart. Tailback Shadrach Thornton is the team’s top rusher, and David J. Grinnage is a quality contributor. Also, junior linebacker M.J. Salahuddin would be starting at middle linebacker, but he’s out for the season with a knee injury. Clark, Tu’uta, Davis, Kennedy, and Sessoms are all reserves, but only Davis receives consistent playing time.

I know that is is VERY HARD to watch and suffer the pain that we have endured on the field over the last few seasons, but what else can we expect when you take an objective look at where the program currently stands?

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Home Forums Recruiting: the lost years impacting the current years

Viewing 7 posts - 26 through 32 (of 32 total)
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  • #59069
    choppack1
    Participant

    Grey – regarding the contract, those are subject to reasonable expectations. If DD wins his next 5 games and goes 6-2 or 7-1 next year, I guarantee you he’s getting a big fat raise. Likewise, if he can’t win more than 2 conference games in his next 13 – I suspect he’ll be fired.

    Look its best for DD and the program at large if he can win at least 2 games this year. No matter how you feel about him if we go 0-8 or even 1-7 this year, next year the atmosphere won’t be good until we win a few game…and the “sell” will be a very difficult one for recruits.

    That said -he’s getting a 3rd year unless something off the field occurs.and he deserves it. In the 3rd year if things aren’t going well, things will get very ugly.

    #59075
    Greywolf
    Participant

    Likewise, if he can’t win more than 2 conference games in his next 13 – I suspect he’ll be fired.

    And I suspect the buy-out is big enough that he won’t. IMO nothing will happen no matter how bad the 1st, 2nd and 3rd year are if we have a good 4th year and a great 5th year. If we fire Doeren after 3 years, I hate to think about trying to hire a quality HC to replace him. We fans may not know our asses from holes in the ground but you can bet that veteran coaches no how difficult winning with little talent can be,

    Right now I’m not concerned about the future. I do get weary of the hand-wringing and the conference loss countdown like we were counting Brissett’s streak of no-INTs or something. After going 3-9 last year, we lost to FSU, Clemson and BC, well duh! What’s the big surprise? We are playing Louisville this week. Would you be surprised if we didn’t win? Me either. I think we got a chance to win Syracuse and Wake Forest. Since this is the Recruiting: the lost years impacting the current years I shouldn’t have to tell you why that’s all I’m expecting.

    I got off track there. Sorry. All indications are that this conversation will get us a good laugh in the coming years.

    #59080
    jrcox4
    Participant
    #59081
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    The losing streak is historically significant:

    N.C. State enters the game at Louisville with the school-record 11-game ACC losing streak. The odds are the streak will hit 12 on the road. Duke and Virginia are the only ACC programs that have had losing streaks equal to or longer than the Pack’s current one this century.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/10/17/4241885/giglio-a-silver-lining-in-the.html?sp=/99/103/119/273/#storylink=cpy

    Let that sink in a minute. No Pack fan likes this. But it is where we are right now. Doesn’t mean it is where we will be in a few years, but does indicate we have a giant uphill climb with FSU and Clemson (and now Lville) in the division.

    #59084
    choppack1
    Participant

    Grey – I expect us to lose, but hopefully we won’t embarrass ourselves (again). I hope we win at least 2 games from here on out. However, dd ain’t the first coach to inherit a bad situation. He’ll have more of my sympathy (like that’s important) – if he doesn’t throw his players under the bus.

    That said, ain’t no way dd comes back if he goes 0-24….likewise he’ll be gone if he goes 13-0. That’s just reality.

    #59086
    Greywolf
    Participant

    He’ll have more of my sympathy (like that’s important) – if he doesn’t throw his players under the bus.

    I’m with you 100% on that. So far he’s clean. The biggest was when one of the players called for that fake punt last year and Doeren never said a word about it being a player. Attitude usually flows from the top. Canada took 100% responsibility for the lousy offense these last to games. Doeren before him took responsibility for not having the team ready to play.

    Chop, I expect if we were having a conversation about this immediate and even the larger subject, we would be in agreement in principle. I’m long winded — I like to think of it as “thorough” 😉 — and sometimes I’m talking in general when I started out answering your comment. Sorry about that. I do like going back and forth with you and some others. It’s both enjoyable and educational for me.

    #59087
    choppack1
    Participant

    Grey – I agree. I actually loved that he suspended those 7 guys.

    Part of me thinks that this staff doesn’t trust their kids enough. I think that they have moved away from the hurry-up to protect the DM..which has only had the impact of killing the o. I think we did the same last year.

    I like dd – I think he’s going thru the most difficult time of his professional life. Hopefully, we dont realize the worst case scenario. I don’t think we’re that far off…and I just this one think you’re passionate about defending the staff at what you believe is for the best long term for nc state. The good news is that I don’t dd is SL or lr.

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