Sat Open FBall Entry; 2010 ACC AET Week 9 [Updated 10/29]
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Due to the Thursday night game and some schools who wait until Thursday to release their Depth Chart (Yes, I’m looking at you Wake Forest), I’m having to put this out early and incomplete. I’ll update on Friday to include the Saturday games.
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2010 ACC AET Index (10/30) |
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Team |
Class Size
Jr/Sr % |
Returning
Starters % |
Returning
Lettermen % |
Depth Chart
Jr/Sr % |
Talent
Points |
AVG
Rank |
| Miami | 41 (2) | 64 (5) | 72 (4) | 62 (2) | 152 (1) | 2.8 |
| UNC | 45 (1) | 68 (2) | 70 (5) | 53 (6) | 127 (4) | 3.6 |
| Clemson | 40 (4) | 59 (7) | 70 (5) | 52 (8) | 145 (2) | 5.2 |
| GT | 31 (11) | 64 (5) | 76 (1) | 60 (4) | 114 (7) | 5.6 |
| Duke | 34 (9) | 68 (2) | 73 (3) | 54 (5) | 110 (8) | 5.4 |
| FSU | 36 (7) | 73 (1) | 69 (7) | 40 (12) | 138 (3) | 6.0 |
| Virginia | 41 (2) | 55 (9) | 68 (9) | 68 (1) | 101 (12) | 6.6 |
| NCSU | 38 (5) | 55 (9) | 59 (12) | 62 (2) | 121 (5) | 6.6 |
| BC | 38 (5) | 68 (2) | 67 (10) | 49 (9) | 109 (9) | 7.0 |
| Maryland | 33 (10) | 55 (9) | 76 (1) | 46 (11) | 109 (9) | 8.0 |
| Wake | 35 (8) | 59 (7) | 69 (8) | 53 (6) | 105 (11) | 8.0 |
| VT | 30 (12) | 55 (9) | 64 (11) | 49 (9) | 121 (5) | 9.2 |
| ACC Avg | 36.8 | 61.9 | 69.4 | 54.0 | 121.0 | 6.17 |
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2010 ACC AET Index (10/30) revised |
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Team |
Class Size
Jr/Sr % |
Returning
Starters % |
Returning
Lettermen % |
Depth Chart
Jr/Sr % |
Talent
Points % |
AVG
Rank |
| Miami | 41 | 64 | 72 | 62 | 69.1 | 61.6 |
| UNC | 45 | 68 | 70 | 53 | 57.7 | 58.7 |
| Clemson | 40 | 59 | 70 | 52 | 65.9 | 57.4 |
| GT | 31 | 64 | 76 | 60 | 51.8 | 56.6 |
| FSU | 36 | 73 | 69 | 40 | 62.7 | 56.1 |
| Duke | 34 | 68 | 73 | 54 | 50.0 | 55.8 |
| Virginia | 41 | 55 | 68 | 68 | 45.9 | 55.6 |
| BC | 38 | 68 | 67 | 49 | 49.5 | 54.3 |
| NCSU | 38 | 55 | 59 | 62 | 55.0 | 53.8 |
| Wake | 35 | 59 | 69 | 53 | 47.7 | 52.7 |
| Maryland | 33 | 55 | 76 | 46 | 49.5 | 51.9 |
| VT | 30 | 55 | 64 | 49 | 55.0 | 50.6 |
| ACC Avg | 36.8 | 61.9 | 69.4 | 54.0 | 55.0 | 55.4 |
Game 1: Florida State at NC State (Thursday 7:30 ESPN)
Look at the 2010 ACC AET Index to see each school’s Index Number and how it was achieved. I will be using updated weekly numbers to reflect the current week’s Depth Charts.
- FSU = 6.0
- NC State = 6.6
Referring back to the 2006-2009 AET Index you’ll see that the Home Field Advantage (HFA) factor is -1.6, which was developed using 2006-2008 data. Including 2009 data the HFA factor is -1.5. So we subtract 1.5 from NC State who is the Home team and we get:
- FSU = 6.0
- NC State = 5.1
NC State becomes the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.9 advantage.
Now looking back at how coaches fare as Favorites and Underdogs, 2006-2009 ACC AET Index, (plus 2010 game results to this point) we see the following:
- Fisher is (2-0) as the Underdog on the road. (games against Miami and UVA)
- O’Brien is (4-4) as the Favorite at home.
NOTE: I think I’ve found a better way at comparing the teams. Instead of assigning a rank from 1-12 to each of the teams based on what they have for each category I’ve decided that in order to more accurately reflect the separation between each team (in each category) I should eliminate the rankings and use their percentages. The problem I had before was what to do with the Talent Points category. I’ve decided to convert it to a percentage by taking the team’s talent points and dividing it by 220 (the maximum point total if a team’s depth chart consisted of all 5 star players). I believe this will work out better from what I’ve seen so far. For example, if Team A = 60%, Team B = 50%, and Team C = 49%, then under the current method they would have received rankings of Team A=1, Team B=2, and Team C=3. This isn’t a very good method considering Team A is a full 10% more than Team B yet only has a separation of 1. I’ll provide more details at the end of the season during my year in review but for now I’m going to start adding the newer method/records with the current method for the rest of the season for comparison purposes.
New AET Index Numbers: (Now the favorite is the team with the higher number)
- FSU = 56.1
- NC State = 53.8
HFA Factor: (calculated to 3.1)
- FSU = 56.1
- NC State = 56.9
NC State again becomes the favorite with a slim 0.8 advantage. Revised coaching records show:
- Fisher is (2-0) as the Underdog on the road. (games against Miami and UVA)
- O’Brien is (3-4) as the Favorite at home.
What do I think?
I think Florida State COULD be a dangerous team. They built this season’s reputation on blowing out crap teams (Wake Forest & Virginia) before facing a talented but poorly coached Miami team. Then they struggled against a below average Boston College. FSU is dangerous because they have just as potent an offense as NC State but now are getting over 200 yards a game on the ground, they aren’t having to rely completely on Ponder. That takes away NC State defense’s ability to key in on one facet of the game. I think State will score enough points on offense to win the game, the question comes back to (like it has for 3 years now) will the defense slow down the opposing team enough to get the win. I’m also concerned about NC State’s special teams. All of the hidden yardage we give up on kickoffs and punts, add in missed FG’s from inside the 30 yard line, and you have a recipe for disaster in a close game.
I don’t think NC State needs to play a perfect game to beat FSU, we just can’t afford to play poorly in any one of the 3 areas. Defense is going to need to slow down FSU’s running game and at the same time not give up the big passes. The 2 things I’m going to keep track of for both teams are 3rd down conversions, especially on 3rd and long, plus Red Zone Scoring. NC State has been particularly awful this year on scoring Touchdowns once inside the 20.
As for the outcome, I’m going with the AET Index and picking NC State winning a close one, thanks in part to what should be an electric and hostile atmosphere in Carter-Finley.
Vegas Odds: (as of Wednesday)
FSU at NC State: FSU -4
What do you think?
[UPDATED]
What can I say? That was one HELL of a game.
3rd Down Eff:
- FSU = 8/14 (57%)
- NC State = 12/18 (67%)
Definitely needed to do better on 3rd down defense but hey, I’ll take whatever we get as long as it results in a Win.
Red Zone:
- FSU = 4/5 (3TD/1FG)
- NC State = 4/5 (4TD/0FG)
Russell’s INT was the lone time we didn’t score in the Red Zone but was a huge improvement over what we’ve seen this season.
SATURDAY’S GAMES
Game 2: Clemson at Boston College (12:00 Raycom)
Updated AET Index Numbers:
- Clemson = 5.2
- Boston College = 7.0
HFA Factor:
- Clemson = 5.2
- Boston College = 5.5
Clemson remains the favorite to win this matchup with a 0.3 advantage.
- Swinney is (3-2) as the Favorite on the road.
- Spaziani is (0-1) as the Underdog at home.
New AET Index Numbers:
- Clemson = 57.4
- Boston College = 54.3
HFA Factor:
- Clemson = 57.4
- Boston College = 57.4
It’s now a toss-up.
Game 3: Miami at Virginia (12:00 ESPN)
Updated AET Index Numbers (new index number):
- Miami = 2.8 (61.6)
- Virginia = 6.6 (55.6)
HFA Factor:
- Miami = 2.8 (61.6)
- Virginia = 5.1 (58.7)
Miami is still the favorite to win this matchup with a 2.3 (2.9) advantage.
- Shannon is (4-6) as the Favorite on the road. (6-6)
- London is (0-1) as the Underdog at home. (0-1)
Game 4: Wake Forest at Maryland (3:30 ESPNU)
Updated AET Index Numbers:
- Wake Forest = 8.0 (52.7)
- Maryland = 8.0 (51.9)
HFA Factor:
- Wake Forest = 8.0 (52.7)
- Maryland = 6.5 (55.0)
Maryland goes from a toss up to the favorite to win this matchup with a 1.5 (2.3) advantage.
- Grobe is (6-10) as the Underdog on the road. (4-10)
- Friedgen is (7-5) as the Favorite at home. (7-4)
Vegas Odds: (as of Friday 12:00 pm)
- Clemson at Boston College: Clemson -7
- Miami at Virginia: Miami -14.5
- Wake Forest at Maryland: Maryland -5.5
What do I think?
- This game will have the most impact towards NC State. With Clemson at 2-2 in the conference a win will keep them in the race with games against NC State and FSU remaining. A loss will all but eliminate them. I think if Swinney removes his head out of his butt and hands the ball off to Ellington at least 25 times then Clemson should have no problems against BC.
- Even the schizophrenic Miami Hurricanes shouldn’t have any problems with Virginia where most fans will be dressed like bleachers.
- Outside of FSU/NC State, I think this is the most compelling matchup in the ACC this weekend. Notice I didn’t say it was going to be pretty, by either side. Wake Forest is just in over its head this year. Maryland on the other hand has stuffed itself full of cupcakes to get to 5-2. Beating Navy, Morgan State, FIU, and Duke isn’t exactly saying much. I do think that last weeks win at Boston College was a big win for them. I’m going with the AET Index and saying Maryland wins and covers the spread.
What do you think?
33 Responses to “Sat Open FBall Entry; 2010 ACC AET Week 9 [Updated 10/29]”
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I want to believe in my heart that we can put a full game together and get a win. I will be in Tallahassee pulling for the Pack!! I wish they would give those towels out tomorrow night. The crowd has to be the best ever for us to have the advantage.
Fisher was an underdog on the road at UVA? Huh?
After the magic of 1998 I look forward to these games year after year. This time should be no different.
GO WOLFPACK!!
61Packer,
FSU was an underdog because they had an AET Index number of 6.0 that week and played at UVA who’s Index number was 6.2. You subtract the HFA and you get FSU as the underdog on the road. It’s one of those things where the eyeball test overrules the AET Index. No way anyone would have picked UVA over FSU that game. Same as no one would have picked Duke over VT last week, even though Duke had the better Index number.
I’ve thought of a couple of ways this week to improve how I quantify the Age and Experience factors that would more accurately reflect reality instead of taking a broad view. It’s just going to take a while to see if I can use this new idea and incorporate or replace with what I currently have. It’ll take time so I wouldn’t expect any changes to the AET Index this year.
In the end remember that, as it currently stands, the AET Index is better suited to look at how well a coach is doing with what he currently has. I’m still working on improving it as a predictor.
I’ll be wearing my red watching on the road in Atlanta. Strike early, strike hard and don’t let up. Go Pack.
I think FSU is more talented in all three phases of the game, but NC we’ve got grit. Having the home fans behind the team can’t be understated in a matchup as close as this one. This game will come down to whether or not our defense can frustrate the FSU offense.
Stop the run. Pressure Ponder. Win the game!
UVA scores first against Miami. Hoos lead 7-0
ok, if you are bored with F-Ball today, there is a great (I mean GREAT) basketball game on ESPN Classic. They are showing the 1983 National Basketball game!!!!!
BC is leading Clemmons 13-10 and driving again w~3 min. to go in the first half. Clemmons TD came on a pick-six-Go Eagles!
Miami trailing 17-o to the cavs and BC trading blows with clemson….
interesting day!
That 83 song and clips of the tournament highlights show me that the true glory days of college basketball are beind us….us as in all of us…as in society in general. The early 80′s… even UNC’s two championships included… were back when college basketball was actually “cool.” We’ll never see that sort of “special” again in college hoops.
It is not easy for me to be pulling for BC over Clemson…but, it is too important for the Wolfpack not to be.
BC 16 Clempson 10 1:42 left BC just intercepted.
UVA 24 U of M 6 6:29 left
I forgot to say, Go Bill and Mary!!! I hope Mike Paulous has a career day against his former team.
43 seconds left, Clemmon U has the ball on their own 14 yard line.
Clempson lost 16-10
U of M making incredible comeback. Now UVA 24 U of M 19 4:39 left.
UofM is a way better team, they are in their 4th string QB I think?
And the posts come down in Charlotesville!
BC takes the W from Clemson…
UVA won. VA Tech gets help.
What to watch now, Iowa or Nebraska?
PS go guillo y maria!
What in the heck! Clemson loses to BC??? Really? Miami loses to Virginia????? Randy Shannon is fired. He can start packin. He is toast.
Sweeney will not last long if he keeps this pace either, though I hope they do struggle onemore game before picking it up. Looks like its us or FSU vs VT in Charlotte.
I know what happens in one game does not equate what happens in another but if Clemson is losing to BC, we should handle Clemson. What’s that called, transitive properties? A>B , B>C so A>C.
Touchdown, Bill and MAry!!!!!! GO TRIBE!!!!!
I’m at kenan now watching Mary&William pass the ball all over the Holes. My dad is a unc grad & its all I can do to keep my mouth shut when w&m scores. Tribe scores late in the half plus gets a 2 pt conversion. Then the Holes fumble the kick off . Quietly loving the cheaters taking it from the tribe.:) 17-7 tribe at half!!.