Myrtle Beach Regional Preview

We’ve gone over a lot of NC State baseball in the last months; I’m quite impressed by the baseball conversation that has gone on this year. It appears interest has really picked up since I penned my first entry 2 seasons ago. We’re going to take this entry to briefly introduce the competition we’ll be facing in our regional matchup.

Coastal Carolina is the overall number 4 seed in the tourney, and is joined in the regional by #2 seed College of Charleston and #4 seed Stony Brook. As has been pointed out by several readers, this is a winnable regional… but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy.

Here’s an overview of the team statistics, with our numbers included for comparison. Bear in mind when considering the numbers that the levels of respective conference play differ, but this still serves as a nice appraisal of what types of teams we will be up against.

TEAM Runs HR AVG OPS SB/ATT ERA Runs K/BB Errors
Coastal Carolina 535 99 .324 .969 146/180 3.19 220 479/198 68
Coll. Charles. 534 96 .315 .948 87/114 5.37 379 499/227 88
NC State 563 97 .329 .975 41/57 5.24 379 466/263 99
Stony Brook 403 50 .326 .885 34/53 5.91 326 352/225 51

On the surface this is a very evenly matched regional, especially in the top 3. Coastal Carolina features the distinct edge in pitching strictly by ERA and runs, but the strikeout numbers aren’t eye popping in comparison, so I wouldn’t say they are dominant. They feature one starter who has more strikeouts than innings pitched, so he would probably have the potential to be a shut down starter on any given gameday. It should also be apparent that Coastal runs. And runs. And runs some more, and this could pose a problem if Schaeffer is limited or unavailable, as we already have problems shutting down the opponents running game.

The offenses in the top 3 are pretty comparable as well. In the regional, only Stony Brook lacks home run pop, or so it seems. The doubles numbers are there, so perhaps it’s the ballparks in the conference. That’s the one difficulty of going by the numbers; some factors aren’t necessarily included.

So if the hitting, and to an extent pitching (when looking at respective conferences) are comparable, what separates these groups. Well, other than the gaudy 51 wins for Coastal… it’s the defense! Coastal and Stony Brook are in one defensive tier in this group, and College of Charleston and State are in a second tier. I think everyone knows which tier is the “good” tier, given everyone’s acknowledgement of our defensive shortcomings in various threads this year. A final separating factor is walks allowed, which we lead the field in– in a bad way.

So, this sums up what most of knew already about this regional (although at least now it’s in one place): we can win it, but we better bring the bats, and they might want to bring along the gloves as well. I’m interested also in some of the other factors, such as pitching matchups, which I have not seen yet. Coastal, as the #1 seed, seems to have the luxury of being able to hold back an ace in the opening game. Although I’ve coached in enough tournaments to know that holding the ace against a seemingly overmatched opponent can sometimes epically backfire.

I’ll try to update this today and tomorrow as I have time, but this should serve as a nice jumping off point. Many of you have seen some of these teams in person, and your first hand observations would be much appreciated here.

Finally, links to the individual team statistics for your convenience.

Coastal Carolina
College of Charleston
NC State
Stony Brook

About Dr. BadgerPack

NCSU Class of 99 and PhD University of Wisconsin, 2006... Which should adequately explain the screen name I chose at 2am one Saturday...

Baseball Non-Revenue

15 Responses to Myrtle Beach Regional Preview

  1. coach13 06/02/2010 at 8:25 AM #

    I’d love to see a split on those stats, 1st half vs 2nd half of season. Our bats are the key, and if we’ve generated more (statistically) offense in the second half that bodes better for us. And I am a beleiver get the first win in this type of tournament play. Nobody wants to HAVE TO win 3 in a row….so hopefully CC will throw their best game 1. If not I hope SB bites em in the butt.

  2. sbas2 06/02/2010 at 10:45 AM #

    State needs to stay in the winners bracket becasue i do not think State has the pitching to come out of the losers bracket. i have made some comments at Backing the Pack about Avent’s tendencies to pitch to win the regional as opposed to win the first game. if Avent does this by starting Sogard or Mazzoni, it would not surprise me.
    as to errors, since Kyle Wilson has returned to the lineup, i haven’t seen as many although Bergquist and Riggins made a few against Georgia Tech in the tournament. Riggins came back to play stellar defense in State’s games against Va Tech and FSU. from the games i have watched. State for the most part plays fairly good defense, but every once in a while, the defense takes the day off.

    Kyle Wilson, the Pould cousins and Riggins are pounding the ball, and Ciencin isn’t doing badly either. an issue is making a batting order change to put a potent hitter behind Riggins to keep teams from intentionally walking him with men on and the game on the line. this certainly happened two times, maybe three this past weekend.

  3. jaybird80 06/02/2010 at 10:52 AM #

    Just a question for the college baseball experts out there: Why is Coastal Carolina so good? It would seem as though USC and Clemson would get the lion’s share of the college bound players in the state. Certainly thay have had a great year and consistenly seem to be pretty good. It seems like college baseball is going the way of the other major sports and the big conference team are the ones at the top. Are they to baseball what Bosie St is to football?

    Just curious.

  4. Dr. BadgerPack 06/02/2010 at 11:43 AM #

    I would say part of it is player development; Coastal almost always has a good array of 4th year juniors and 5th year seniors. If you can keep the guys around and develop them, you can consistently be good. And over the years there is just a culture of winning there.

    As for recruiting in general, Clemson and USC may get the lions share of TOP RATED recruits, but it’s really hard to recruit in baseball. One, there are just so many high school baseball players that look good on paper, and maybe 10% of them have seen a decent breaking ball. It’s easier to “get lucky” in baseball recruiting (no, I’m not saying Coastal is lucky!).

    As for pitchers, so many high school pitchers get by just “throwing” instead of pitching, as they may only face 1-2 good hitters a game. It’s just hard to gauge, unless you’re (a) really good at scouting or (b) looking at that top tier that the recruiting services (which there aren’t many of for baseball compared to other sports) have focused on.

    If you can successfully scout that next best tier and develop them, you will be very good year in and year out, especially in a non-power conference.

    You do see a little bit more of the 2nd-5th round high school talent go to college now, ever since MLB reigned in the bonuses, and those are the ones that the big conferences tend to slug it out over.

    Over course, that’s just a rough overview and there are other factors… but coaching, scouting and development are pretty huge.

  5. Dr. BadgerPack 06/02/2010 at 11:55 AM #

    Also note that as far as “getting lucky” in baseball recruiting goes… the opposite is also true– it’s easier to find a can’t miss who has Pedro Cerrano-itis.

  6. sbas2 06/02/2010 at 12:31 PM #

    i just noticed i misspelled the Poulk’s name. my apologies.

  7. ruffles31 06/02/2010 at 1:36 PM #

    The key to this weekend is obviously pitching and defense. It will be interesting to see if the lack of playing top level teams consistently lately will come back to haunt Coastal Carolina. A few things I think are important for State to win this weekend:

    1. MUST beat College of Charleston on Friday. Lose and no way Jose.
    2. Almost a MUST win would be winning the Saturday game between the winner of the CCU-Stony Brook game. This team needs to pitch as few games as possible to keep the bullpen rested.
    3. Coastal Carolina went 25-0 in the Big South. Let that sink in for a second. 25-0. No hiccups, no running into a hot pitcher or hitter. That is amazing. Never seen or even heard of a team going undefeated in conference play. My worry about them is two-fold. First, though they have been undefeated for while, it hasn’t been against top level play and possibly bad habits could have formed,. Second, they haven’t always given the look of a team that believes it can always compete against the BCS teams in the NCAA tournament.
    4. College of Charleston is not someone to be overlooked. We need to be ready to play from the get go on Friday.

    My personal opinion, you have to play for winning the regional when setting up your rotation. I would do the same thing Avent did last week in Greensboro. Friday night starter is Sogard. He would have four days rest. Saturday night (hopefully) is Buchanan. Sunday would be Mazzoni. If there is a fourth game, Labmbert and the bullpen.

  8. sbas2 06/02/2010 at 4:10 PM #

    i took a look at the schedules of Coastal and Charleston to see if there were any common opponents. Coastal has beaten Wake, Va Tech, UNC, and Clemson. Coastal lost to UVA at UVA. of course Coastal beat State in a tournament early in the season.
    Charleston split with UNC Wilmington while State lost both games to them. here is the eye opener. Charleston beat Coastal both times they played them!
    State can win this, but it will be tougher than i originally thought.

  9. awsmothers 06/02/2010 at 6:32 PM #

    As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, although I’m a lifelong Wolfpack fan, my son goes to Coastal and I also love the Chants. I’ve seen Coastal play 30+ times this season (including all of their BSC Tourney games last weekend), make no mistake, CCU is every bit a Top 5 team in the Nation. Several of their stars started out (& were 1st teamers) in a power conference (Chance Gilmore, the coach’s son went to UVa before returning home, both Jose Iglesias & Tommy LaStella were at St. John’s), but Gary Gilmore is one of the best developers of talent in America, not to mention one of the great talent evaluators! CCU is faster than NC State, hit for as much power as NC State, have 10 regulars that hit over .300, and have 2 All-American Pitchers in Cody Wheeler & Anthony Meo (1 of 20 Semi-finalists for the Golden Spikes Award)… C of C has beaten CCU the last 5X they’ve met and are also BIG and talented. Coastal is clearly the favorite in the Regional, but the Top 3 are close and it may be the second toughest overall behind the UCLA Region, which also has 3 teams that can not only get to Omaha, but win the whole damn thing!

  10. McCallum 06/02/2010 at 10:45 PM #

    Anytime I hear the words “Myrtle Beach” I can not help but think of large women from the Ohio Valley with roses tattooed on their lower calf.

    GO WOLP FACK!!!

    McCallum

  11. Classof89 06/03/2010 at 10:49 AM #

    Yikes! The more I read about both CofC and CC, the more I think we are going to get shelled…

  12. GAWolf 06/03/2010 at 12:04 PM #

    Looks like to me Coastal and Charleston are extremely aggressive on the base paths. That doesn’t match well with a team that has too many errors. The flip is that Stoney Brook makes the fewest errors… and thus they find themselves playing in the tournament.

    We also have the most walks… which hurts given our propensity to make errors and ultimately give those freeloaders extra free bases, too.

  13. packpowerfan 06/04/2010 at 12:51 AM #

    Our boys really have their work cut out for them. I’ve believed all season long that we have the offense to play with ANYONE. This team can hit, and they can hit well…but hitting is only a fourth of the game. Where we exceed the norm in hitting, we desperately lack in base-running, pitching and fielding. The good thing is we have three pitchers who can play relatively well on the mound.

    The golden question in my mind is: If a pitcher finds his wheels falling off, will the fielding be able to step up and contain the run game? I was very impressed with Sogard’s performance through the ACCT, and Buchanan was sharp despite coming in cold in a relief effort. So, when looking at our staff, will Mazzoni be able to shake off his 4th inning meltdown against VT well enough to pitch against a lineup (assuming CofC or Coastal) that WILL put a ball (or two) in the stands?

    Despite the questions, I am thrilled that this regional is at BB&T. I work Friday night, and will miss our opening game, but living in Ocean Isle gives me the luxury of a 20 minute drive (with traffic) for the Saturday and Sunday game. I will be there with a carload of fellow Pack students to cheer our guys on! GO PACK!

  14. gcpack 06/04/2010 at 9:40 AM #

    CAN ANYONE RESPOND IF THEY KNOW ANY SOURCE TO WATCH THE GAME TONIGHT VS. C of C. TODAY’S PAPER INDICATES ONLY RADIO.

    THANKS IF ANYONE CAN CLARIFY.

  15. Dr. BadgerPack 06/04/2010 at 9:45 AM #

    There is broadcast information in the editor’s note of the following article… which, incidentally is a nice article on Kyle Wilson

    http://www.gopack.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=9200&ATCLID=204954561

    In other news, Dallas Poulk was named a 3rd team All-American by Collegiate Baseball magazine. Nicely done, Dallas!

    http://www.gopack.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=9200&ATCLID=204954804

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