OOC Strength of Schedule

Note – The great pic from the WRAL or N&O doesn’t really tie into the article.   I just like it.

 

I really appreciate the Wolfpack extending the basketball season so that the latest OOC SOS summary will appear before we move into baseball and the long drought until football comes back on Labor Day weekend. I haven’t done one of these entries in several years, so it seemed like a good time to get up the companion piece to the ACC SOS entry.

Looking at several teams’ schedules, the OOC schedule seems to be about a baker’s dozen…so a little over 40% of the regular season schedule. The key point that I want to make once again is that while most people (at least in my house) tend the view the OOC schedule as the pre-season, the results can have a significant effect on Selection Sunday over three months after the OOC schedule has concluded.

In the days of Herb and Sid, I used to bemoan the fact that our coaches obviously missed the importance of making strategic decisions when building the OOC schedule. I’m very grateful that this particular problem completely disappeared with Gottfried’s arrival in Raleigh. So let’s first update the summary table that I’ve used over the years and modified as the conference grew:

 

The info in the first versions of this table came from Ken Pomeroy’s site and then I had to find other sources after he became enamored with his own analysis system. The 2011 data came from ESPN and the other years were from wherever I managed to find the info. For completeness I wish that I had noted where the info came from, but you can’t have everything.

I first put this summary table together to dispute the HSSS’s claims that State’s poor OOC schedule was a result of “bad luck” (since nothing was every Herb’s fault). I think that this table proves that if you want a good OOC schedule, you can pick your definition of “good” and then pick your schedule. The consistency at the top and bottom makes it impossible to support any other conclusion.

I can’t imagine that I’ll have any need for this old table again, but it was worth updating just to illustrate how much things have changed over the last four years. You can imagine how happy I was to hear in the early Gottfried interviews that he had to redo the OOC schedule for his first year as coach. So here’s the updated table prepared by pretending that the latest version of the ACC was actually in place for the last four years:

Random Thoughts:

Oliver Purnell managed to upgrade Clemson’s OOC schedule for a little while (tenure from ’03-’10). But it didn’t take very long after his unexpected departure for Clemson to return to their historical roots.

2013 is an especially good year for me because UVA manages to absolutely destroy some nonsense that gets spouted from time-to-time. They were 21-10 (11-7) heading into the ACCT…and landed straight into the NIT (after losing to State in the first round). If their season doesn’t kill the 20-win nonsense forever, then it is simply more evidence to support Ron White (You Can’t Fix Stupid). A horribly weak OOC schedule undoubtedly helped determine their post-season tournament that year.

WF has taken a nose-dive in more ways than one since Skip Prosser’s untimely death in 2007. Hopefully, Manning can improve the team as well as he did their OOC schedule this year.

You have to wonder what happened to Larranaga this year.

The only time that I can justify a super-weak OOC schedule is in a rebuilding year where you are just hoping to make the NIT. So I won’t make any comparisons between Buzz and Greenburg…but he better upgrade VT’s schedule quickly or the comparisons will come.

Please share anything that stands out to you in the comments.

 

Earlier this year, I noticed that the OOC SOS can change greatly from our first look (normally at the first of Jan) and the end of the ACCT. So here’s the summary of where the SOS started and where it ended up:

It’s interesting that both of the last two years, 2/3 of the conference saw their OOC SOS drop. This general trend makes sense to me since most of the OOC schedule is made up of mid/lower major teams and these teams generally drop down through the RPI as their overall SOS decreases. But in contrast to the general trend, State’s OOC SOS has improved both years. If this trend continues, I’ll have to muster up enough energy to investigate.

The other general trend is that for most teams, the change isn’t really all that significant this year. But at the far extremes, the differences are surprising (at least to me).

The following graph illustrates the changes seen over the last two years:

 

I don’t think that there was any team this year that scheduled their way into the NIT like SMU did last year…and Seth Greenburg did several times at VT. But the best example that I have to illustrate the punitive nature of the NCAAT Selection process over the issue of OOC scheduling is Penn St. in 2009. From the post-mortem that year, here was my bottom line:

Let’s…list the various stats for the [last] six teams that got in along with Penn St and see what we can find.

Here are some arguments for including Penn St in the NCAAT.

– They tied for the most wins against the top-50 (6).
– Only one team had more wins against the top-25.
– Two teams included in the NCAAT lost in the first round of their conference tournament (including one from the Big 10).
– Two teams from the Big 10 that were selected (Minn and Mich) had worse conference records and all three had the same results in the conference tournament (1-1).

So why was Penn State left out?

Personally, I believe that the Selection Committee made a conscious decision to penalize Penn St for their OOC schedule. I go back to my old formula which has worked against a number of ACC teams in the past and got Arizona State last year:

Miserable OOC schedule +
Mediocre conference performance +
Mediocre conference tourney performance =
NIT

 

Never forget, the OOC schedule is a choice. There is plenty of evidence to support the conclusion that the Selection Committee penalizes marginal teams when they make a bad choice. For ACC teams, this is an important lesson to learn because the large variation in conference SOS means that you could end up with a weak conference schedule through no fault of your own. For a team as good as ND this year, it wasn’t a problem. But you don’t want to be on the bubble with a weak overall schedule on your resume.

 

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Home Forums OOC Strength of Schedule

Viewing 19 posts - 1 through 19 (of 19 total)
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  • #82638
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I really appreciate the Wolfpack extending the basketball season so that the latest OOC SOS summary will appear before we move into baseball and the long drought before football…
    [See the full post at: OOC Strength of Schedule]

    #82647
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I like the idea of punishing the weak OOCs like that, because like VaWolf says – well within your control. If’n you schedule to make the NIT, don’t be surprised when you end up there.

    #82656
    Texpack
    Participant

    Improving OOC SOS during the year is a sign that your opponents are doing well withing their respective leagues and at least some of those teams are power conference teams. We sit there and wring our hands over how tough it is to beat the Woffords and Boises of the world, but when March rolls around you are glad that’s who you played. Playing Texas State and UNC- may let somebody go for 45 points but it doesn’t get you in the dance.

    Gott has the scheduling formula figured out. He should present a paper at the coaches meeting next weekend…..if he’s not coaching.

    #82657
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Gott has the scheduling formula figured out. He should present a paper at the coaches meeting next weekend…..if he’s not coaching.

    It works to State’s favor that some coaches never figure this whole thing out. If more teams started scheduling better, it would make it harder to have an OOC ranked in the Top 50.

    #82658
    Heelh8r
    Participant

    I think it is easy to confuse scheduling strong opponents and big names. Who knew Boise State had a basketball team and that it would be such a quality win. Richmond, Wofford, La Tech, etc. doesn’t get everyone excited like playing some of the big names might, but at the end of the season those games can make the difference in hearing your name called.

    #82659
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I think it is easy to confuse scheduling strong opponents and big names.

    It definitely is, but you also have to sympathize with season ticket holders who are not going to get excited over a game with BSU or watching a loss to Wofford. Though for now, a S-16 (or better) finish should sell plenty of tickets for next year.

    #82660
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    It helps us to have a large arena and to be very proximate to a major airport, too. We make for easy travel and a solid “take” for road teams that might be in demand as RPI-helpers, even if more coaches do wise up.

    #82661
    blpack
    Participant

    Tenn may have shown to be not as good as Gott thought heading into the season, but Cinci, Purdue and WV provided some big names along with the Boise’s of the world. Good mix of teams and like stated above, teams that competed well in their conferences despite not being a brand name.

    #82664
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Perhaps even more importantly, WVU and Cincy helped toughen our hides. We learned how to be physical before it was too late.

    #82665
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    Excellent points BJD.

    #82671
    44rules
    Participant

    If you want players to grow, improve and learn to play well, they have to play against good competition, not cupcakes. I think that’s part of the reason Gott’s teams improve toward the end of the year. They haven’t feasted up to 20 wins against Sisters of the Mercy Bi-Directional Tech.

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #82676
    PackerInRussia
    Participant

    Yeah, they were definitely battle-tested as well as having a good RPI. Great use of the OOC. They played Villanova tough as if they’d had a few cracks at physical play before.

    #82678
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    You can imagine how happy I was to hear in the early Gottfried interviews that he had to redo the OOC schedule for his first year as coach

    ^You weren’t alone, sir.

    Very interesting stuff as always – thanks.

    It definitely is, but you also have to sympathize with season ticket holders who are not going to get excited over a game with BSU or watching a loss to Wofford. Though for now, a S-16 (or better) finish should sell plenty of tickets for next year.

    ^I do not sympathize. If one wants to be willfully ignorant that’s fine … But if one complains about those games online, on talk shows, to the AD, etc. then I go on my personal crusade to stomp that ignorance. A Herb-style OOC schedule should be complained about. Sidney thought he was doing well by scheduling Florida but apparently did not understand how scheduling works. One or two ‘marquee’ home games can be fun, but they mean about ****-all towards a body of work.

    I’ll back up season ticket holders who complain about a Herb or Sidney OOC schedule all day long. If they’re complaining about Gott’s though what exactly do they want? And do they realize that they’d be complaining about the end product (making the NCAA, getting a good seed)?

    This falls into “I want to bitch and moan” territory for me.

    #82719
    Gowolves
    Participant

    My question is how flexible is the basketball schedule? In football teams schedule years in advance and by that time that team will be in a down cycle. I assume that the flexibility is greater in basketball. I also think that the with the opportunities to go pro at different times in both sports plays a huge roll in scheduling. Trying to project what players they have coming back and the coach that team may have are difficult at best. Example if the Pack scheduled the Shockers two years from now and Marshall leaves are they going to be the same team? Are the buy outs similar to what they are in football? On the surface I wouldn’t think so. What is the lead time to buy out in comparison to say football?

    #82725
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    All good questions, but I don’t have many answers. But as I mentioned in the article, Gottfried was hired in the spring and redid the OOC schedule for that fall. So most games appear to be done rather last minute.

    Obviously home/home games with teams like WVU and Cincy have a little longer scheduling period. I have no clue about the buyout figures.

    #82735
    Gowolves
    Participant

    Thanks for all the info. Very informative and interesting. When you schedule these lower named teams the margin of error as it relates to competitiveness is much greater. Boise State and the Woffards are no locks to be good any year.

    #82739
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    I believe aside from negotiated home-and-home deals – like with Cincy and Tennessee the past couple of seasons – all other non preseason tournament games are scheduled during each off season.

    We owed Missouri a game down there this season, but for a reason I can’t recall it I think it was pushed to next season (it may have been nixed altogether). Missouri had a coaching change of course, and the new staff may not have been comfortable with that game this season (with seemingly good reason as Missouri was pretty poor). I don’t know who we got on the schedule to make up for that game, but I think it may have been La Tech (don’t hold me to it).

    The key is to schedule the Wofford’s and La Tech’s, who even though they’re from a ‘weaker’ conference those teams will offer a good challenge and help the metrics such as RPI ranking because they’re likely to finish near the top or win their conference outright.

    Gottfried and his staff do an excellent job of identifying these teams for the upcoming season and getting them on the schedule. This is one area where Gottfried’s program can not be knocked. It also eliminates any possibility of a coach/program (Herb!) making weak excuses about scheduling. Herb knew exactly what he was doing scheduling Arkansas Pine-Bluff every season.

    “We were tremendously fortunate to get a win tonight against this seasoned Arkansas Pine-Bluff team.” Ok Herb.

    #82740
    PapaJohn
    Participant

    Gott seems to have been consistent from day 1 on scheduling and recruiting, since then he seems to be improving in other areas. I know I’m not the only person surprised that this team keeps getting kudos for defense.

    Thank you Ms Yow.

    #82763
    Gowolves
    Participant

    This website and the articulate discussions never fails to give me a boner. Thanks for all the insight and knowledge.

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