Overall losses means about as much to the bubble discussion as our team nicknames do
I don’t disagree with your overall point, but, if State loses again in the regular season and does not win the ACC tournament, that means 14 losses. It is worth noting that only 6 teams with 14 losses have been at-large selections since 1985:
Arizona 2008 19-14 (.576)
Georgia 2001 16-14 (.533)
Villanova 1991 16-14 (.533)
Kansas State 1990 17-14 (.548)
Villanova 1990 18-14 (.563)
LSU 1987 21-14 (.600)
Only 2 teams in the past 23 tournaments.
Presumably it is very rare for a team with 14 losses to have the resume State has, so they could be the next such team. But what they really need to do is just win the last two regular season games. IMO that will lock up a bid.
