The problem with the “ejector seat” this year is that we almost certainly wouldn’t be seeded opposite Duke or Wahoowa. That leaves the Shadow Pack ™ and the Mystery Team.
Come on, you freaking KNOW who we’d get.
Game theory is simple enough. The interests of the NCAA are served best by screwing Calipari as much as possible. Because he doesn’t pretend to be “holier than thou” and preserve their facade. So they will get the hardest road possible. We would be the most dangerous 8/9, like Kentucky was last season (as given to poor Scary Wheat). Not that we would be a huge threat, but a 5% chance of an upset is way more significant than 0.5% than, say, Butler would have.
The secondary criterion is that “close escapes” for the Shadow Pack ™ would make for good tv.
Looming in the background, I believe the committee will do everything possible to set up a bed of roses for “Coach 1K” (barf) to win it, and they have no chance against Calipari’s crew.