I like realtimerpi better than ESPN. Here are the current ACC RPI rankings from that site, updated as of 9 pm PST tonight (so about 40 minutes ago):
1 UVA
4 Duke
6 Clemson
11 UNC
17 Miami
20 Louisville
32 Syracuse
33 FSU
65 State
72 BC
73 VT
76 ND
125 Wake
142 GT
180 Pitt
By those ratings, these are the remaining games for State by quadrant:
1 – UNC, Louisville, @Syracuse, @VT
2 – FSU, BC, @Wake
3 – ND, @GT
State’s current record by quadrant:
1 – 4-4
2 – 0-1
3 – 4-2
4 – 7-0
So let’s say State wins 5 more games. Worst case is they win all 5 quad 2-3 games and lose all quad 1 games, meaning they would finish the regular season like this:
1 – 4-8
2 – 3-1
3 – 6-2
4 – 7-0
I doubt that is enough to get in without ACC tournament success, and their first ACCT game would be a quad 2 or 3 game, so not sure 1 win would be enough. If they won the first game, the second game would be a quad 1 game, so winning 2 ACCT games would be enough. But that is a tough path.
So I’m thinking 6 more regular season wins might actually be required, since that guarantees at least 1 more quad 1 win and also guarantees at least 1 more road win.
7 more wins in any combination should make it a lock.
