Grey, I am sorry that you didn’t have time to read the article I posted. Maybe you could read the one kindly posted by PPP, it is also a great one. In case you don’t want to read the whole thing, here’s an excerpt from the second one:
Every single serious study of 4th-down decisions has found that, in most situations, teams would be better off by going for the conversion attempt rather than kicking. I’ve recently completed a study of 4th-down decisions that confirms what some fans already know, that it pays to be more aggressive.
To put it another way, the data shows that punting gives you less points than going for it would give you, on average. You win more by going for it. As I said earlier, punting has become thought of as the “safe” choice due to coaches concerns about who gets the blame, not who wins.
I believe punting is just plain wrong. Yes, even 4th and 19 from your own 5.
I agree with this coach 100%: Coach who never punts
