Football Schedule Analysis

Yes, I’ve finally had enough caffeine and motivation/shame to force myself to sit down and do this. For a chance (Added Note: I am omitting 2013, when Doeren simply had no chance, so much so that I had blacked it out and forgotten he had been here 3 years instead of 2, getting old is a bitch and a half), Doeren isn’t squarely behind the 8 ball in how the schedule flows, as I will elaborate below…

William & Mary (Thur 1 Sep, 7:30 – ESPN3)

Huzzah, we get the opener right. 9 days to correct the mistakes before a more formidable foe. A Thursday night kickoff that can’t be moved to noon by the Swoffy cabal to torture season ticket holders (and anyone else nuts enough to show up). The open questions we hope and need to see answered here – 1) can the OL be something other than a dumpster fire? and 2) can we identify a credible, good starting QB? For “ok” will not do, NC State never has and in my opinion, never will be any good without good QB play. For reference, look at the post-Philip Rivers side that boasted the most wolven defensive talent (at least in terms of NFL draft assets) ever…6-5.

Win probability – 99%

at Pitt County Community College and Battery Tossing Academy (Sat 10 Sep, Noon – ESPNU)

This is really stretching the “U” by ESPN, but oh well. Full confession, my oldest kid will be at this game as a freshman, cheering for the bad people. She asked me if I wanted to come, to which I said “hell no” (other expletives omitted). But if you are to play this stupid game, which offers zero strategic benefit to NC State and great value to the opposition (especially played at their dirt track racing arena)…this is the ideal time. It will always be EZU’s Super Bowl, but at least it won’t be watered down by coming in the middle of, or God help us, AFTER the ACC schedule. It will be the first legitimate opponent, the first “hostile crowd” test, and that will help our guys be up for it. And unlike 2014 and 2015, we get out first taste of “game speed” at the same time as our opposition, rather than being hopelessly behind the curve (which cost us at least the VPI game last year). Hiding your weaknesses never helps you. Get out there and play football. Hit somebody, see what you are made of. The kids want that.

Win probability – 55%

Old Dominion (Sat 17 Sep, 6:00 – ESPN3)

I probably find this fixture a bit trickier than most. But we could be a bit beat up after the road trip, or feeling a bit too good about ourselves. But in the end, it’s still a home game that we should win. Good scheduling, as it is a step up from the cupcake of the opener.

Win probability – 85%

The bye comes here, at a pretty good time, in my view. Three very different games for the coaches to analyze and make corrections. None of the possible losses would ruin or define the season.

Wake Forest (Sat 1 Oct, TBA)

Getting the Deacs at home off the bye…manna from heaven. Doeren starts 1-0 in ACC play this go ’round, without question.

Win probability – 95%

Notre Dame (Sat 8 Oct, TBA)

Time for shit to get real, yes? And again, the timing is perfect. Confidence should be high, the line should have gelled if ever it will. National pundits have written State off here, noting that under Doeren, “State has never beaten anyone of stature” (paraphrased). Yeah, but let me ‘splain. First, he inherited a vast talent gap. Year ThreeFour is the first time you can really start grading him with a red pen. Second, the teams that NC State has gotten blitzed by are the same that ND struggles with – speed teams. When the other guy can just run past you and score at will…that’s a limiting reagent. The Irish don’t have that, and have mudded around with much lesser sides than NC State, in much less hostile venues. Their record has been padded again and again by playing the dregs of the B1G and other slow, slow programs. NC State gets up for statement-type games, and this will qualify. I thought of this as a 30-35% shot going in, but once I saw the schedule layout, I am upgrading it further…

Win probability – 40%

at Clemson (Sat 15 Oct, TBA)

There are games I am optimistic about, and then there is going into Death Valley the week after playing Notre Dame. Cover your rectal orifices, boys.

Win probability – 10%

at Louisville (Sat 22 Oct, TBA)

Hey, this is a challenging little stretch here, eh? That said, we seem to play the Cardinals tough, and they don’t have the overwhelming personnel advantage that Clemson does. Still, the Fighting Petrinos are the best-coached side in the ACC, and will be a tough hill to climb.

Win probability – 25%

Boston College (Sat 29 Oct, TBA)

Isn’t it nice that Boston College is still in the league? Like having a second, colder Wake Forest. Still, they might have a defense, and our charges might be a wee bit beat up by this point. Not going to be arrogant with this one.

Win probability – 85%

Florida State (Sat 5 Nov, TBA)

A little birdie told me that we get the Criminoles right after they play Clemson at home (without a bye in between). That is indeed the case. Jimbo Fisher still can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag, so you know they will come in arrogant, or feeling like they threw their season away. It will be a matter of (i) is their talent advantage so great that these factors don’t matter; and (ii) is State too beat up by this point in the season to take advantage? There is always the chance of magic when we play Florida State, so keep some hope alive.

Win probability – 30%

at Syracuse (Sat 12 Nov, TBA)

Damn the anthropomorphic Orange for not playing outdoors, and denying us the chance of Glorious Snow Footy. Will they still be bad? Almost surely. Will NC State have their patented FSU hangover? Almost surely. Will this game be unwatchable dreck that sets a season commenting high due to the raw angst of Glorious Wolven Proletariat? You know the answer…

Win probability – 65%

Miami (Sat 19 Nov, TBA)

This game could be vital for Da U, in terms of winning the Coastal Division. In fact, State’s performance in our last two fixtures could decide the fate of who loses to FSU/Clemson/Louisville in Charlotte on 3 Dec. Feel the excite!!! Can we just rest our starters for next week?

Win probability – 40%

at Trump University Fraudulent Diploma Mill – Orange County, NC Branch (Fri 25 Nov, Noon or 3:30, ABC or ESPN or ESPN2)

Insert all the bad words you know, everything dirty George Carlin and Jim Jefferies have ever said, and multiply it by about 10,000. As long as the Pack shows up reasonably healthy, I think we have enough to ruin a season and add some Schadenfruede to the post-turkey and pie haze of glory. Doeren seems to get the fire and brimstone aspect of our rivalry, and we will want this one…bad.

Win probability – 55%

Adding up the probabilities you get an expected win total of…

6.84. No cheating, I didn’t mess with the numbers to get them to equal what I predicted earlier (7-5), it just worked out that way. You can always try this exercise yourself.

About BJD95

1995 NC State graduate, sufferer of Les and MOC during my entire student tenure. An equal-opportunity objective critic and analyst of Wolfpack sports.

'16 Football College Football Dave Doeren General On the Record

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Viewing 25 posts - 151 through 175 (of 201 total)
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  • #105682
    YogiNC
    Participant

    Grey, a 500 year plan? Nope, but through Kaizen (Japanese term for Continuous process improvement, which I taught during my last years in the Navy) they have a strategic plan that is broken down into 10 year vison, 5 year plan, 2 year plan and 90 day plan. Each of them are built to drive the longer plan above them. What i see so far is DD is looking for continuous improvement week over week, month over month, and season over season, with the 5 year plan thrown in for long term measurement purposes. Some of the things I’ve heard him say leads me to believe he is following this philosophy, or one close to it. That’s one reason I’m sold on what he’s doing, I’ve seen this stuff succeed in every environment imaginable (I’ve even facilitated this concept for churches). It is long term thinking. Being better today than yesterday. Eventually the gains add up and the product is considered to have high quality. Many may not think so OR think our progress is too slow, but my personal perception is we are better today and 3 years ago by a long shot. Are there some unknowns? Of course, but each year in college football has that, no matter who you are. Do we have holes? Yep, some due to factors way beyond the control of the staff, like injuries and the ceiling we face on recruiting (and that ceiling does exist for a multitude of reasons whether all admit it or not). Think of it in these terms, it took Japan 30 years to take over the worlds car market and for the last 15 – 20 years they have been unbeatable. If DD is in fact using principles of Continuous process improvement my money is on him.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105683
    Rick
    Keymaster

    I made a comment (taken poorly) that I felt the “culture change” was smoke and mirrors but you seems to really feel he has changed it. What were the cultural problems when he came in? What has he done to fix them and where does he need to take the culture, in your opinion?

    IMO Doeren is building on the foundation that TOB built. I don’t want to say anything about Chuck and the culture (or lack of culture) under him. Let’s just say I would want my son playing for either TOB (as a man) or DD as a man, developer of men and football coach.

    I am not trying to be difficult but am just trying to learn more about your opinion. What about the culture is he building on and (hopefully) improving and does that help us win in the future?

    #105685
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Some of the things I’ve heard him say leads me to believe he is following this philosophy, or one close to it.

    Now that is a very interesting point. What has he said that lead you to believe that?
    I have a Lean Six Sigma Green Belt, while the value of this is questionable it does lead to a mindset of continuous improvement and efficiency. If that is his philosophy that could lead to a better team in the long term.

    #105686
    YogiNC
    Participant

    Rick, just some of his conversations during his show on Sunday night during the season, things said during the caravan stops I’ve been to. Talking in terms of how they measure success position by position, person by person. How they track progress based on measurable factors. In hearing some of those things my first thoughts were “Demming”. I have no idea if he’s ever studied it or if he or someone on his staff are familiar with the concepts. I do know for a fact that Dr. Yow is.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105687
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Thanks Yogi.

    #105688
    choppack1
    Participant

    Yogi – I think there’s plenty of evidence that he has taken the long term approach from a character development perspective – the stern, but fair “justice” he has rendered in the bb gun and moped case show just that.

    Again, I place that in the “encouraging” category. I place the record in the bad category. Right now, character Trump’s the record…going forward the record becomes more important and provides de facto evidence if he is capable of succeeding at this school in this sport.

    #105689
    JasonP
    Participant

    A poster over at BTP (tvp1) posted the following, which I found interesting and depressing:

    Over the past 16 seasons (2000-2015), NC State football has compiled a conference record of 53-75.

    During that stretch, we have been blessed with 4 QBs who were drafted by NFL teams. Each was a multi-year starter and stayed relatively healthy while here. 7 of those years we had a future All-Pro QB.

    In the 11 seasons started by those 4 NFL-caliber QBs, NC State went 42-46 in conference. Only 2 of those 11 teams had winning conference records. Both of those were 5-3.

    In the 5 seasons during that stretch lacking an NFL-caliber starting QB, NC State went 11-29 in conference, a cool 27.5% winning percentage. (Even removing the 2013 Thomas/Mitchell/no talent sh–show, the record is only 11-21).

    NC State has not had a winning conference record without starting an NFL-caliber QB since 1998.

    NC State has won more than 5 conference games only twice in the post-FSU era. The most recent such year was 1994.

    If all that’s true and holds to form, then we need a real diamond in the rough at QB this season.

    #105690
    Greywolf
    Participant

    I am not trying to be difficult but am just trying to learn more about your opinion. What about the culture is he building on and (hopefully) improving and does that help us win in the future?

    Rick, I don’t think you are being difficult at all. I think you are open to ideas about our coach and program that will enhance your enjoyment of Wolfpack football. Yogi is doing a great job of educating both of us about Coach Doeren our emerging football program culture.

    Like Yogi I have picked up on things he has said over the almost 4 years he has been here. Using Yogi’s insight I think I have spotted assistant coaches using some of what Yogi has said. Example: Ledford speaks to his players about “coming back tomorrow and raising the bar.” He coaches to the level they are working at — offering praise for achievement and positive correction.

    Doeren is learning. His coaches are learning.

    As an example, OnePack-OneGoal might be a part of the culture he is creating. How would that help in winning? Finley arrived on campus and started ‘coaching’ the other QBs and the receivers in Drinkwitz’s system. Compare this to the Michigan QBs who tried to hold secret workouts to gain an advantage over the other QBs in competing for the starting job. Harbaugh liked it. It’s not the same culture is it. Finley could have tried to use his knowledge for an advantage over McClendon and Meyers but that’s not OnePack-OneGoal. Have some fun with this Rick. Over the season see if you can identify what might be called cultural in Doeren’s program.

    #105691
    Greywolf
    Participant

    High work ethic is part of the culture. We’ve had players leave for no apparent reason. My guess. They didn’t want to work in the weight room.

    #105692
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Have some fun with this Rick. Over the season see if you can identify what might be called cultural in Doeren’s program.

    Will do
    Thanks for the insight.

    #105693
    Greywolf
    Participant

    A poster over at BTP (tvp1) posted the following, which I found interesting and depressing:

    Over the past 16 seasons (2000-2015), NC State football has compiled a conference record of 53-75.

    During that stretch, we have been blessed with 4 QBs who were drafted by NFL teams. Each was a multi-year starter and stayed relatively healthy while here. 7 of those years we had a future All-Pro QB.

    In the 11 seasons started by those 4 NFL-caliber QBs, NC State went 42-46 in conference. Only 2 of those 11 teams had winning conference records. Both of those were 5-3.

    In the 5 seasons during that stretch lacking an NFL-caliber starting QB, NC State went 11-29 in conference, a cool 27.5% winning percentage. (Even removing the 2013 Thomas/Mitchell/no talent sh–show, the record is only 11-21).

    NC State has not had a winning conference record without starting an NFL-caliber QB since 1998.

    NC State has won more than 5 conference games only twice in the post-FSU era. The most recent such year was 1994.

    This means about as much about this year’s team as when TOB’s first 5 teams beat the Holes then lost the 6th game. Why look in the rear view mirror to see where you are going? Lincoln lost nearly every political race he entered. Why bother to run for president?

    #105694
    44rules
    Participant

    Yogi, perhaps I should have said I’d work a standard football coach contract (3, 5, 7 years?) for that kind of money and not care what people on the Interwebs said. The one-year comment makes it seem like I’d bail quickly under the pressure, and I don’t want to give that impression.

    Now I might be more depressed about some things than your average Wolfpack fan at the tail end of a bipolar episode, but I’d handle it!

    Yogi and Rick, are y’all industrial engineers? I’ve got a lean Six Sigma Green Belt too, and many people in that continuous process improvement field are IEs.

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #105695
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Yogi and Rick, are y’all industrial engineers? I’ve got a lean Six Sigma Green Belt too, and many people in that continuous process improvement field are IEs.

    I am in sourcing. My company got on a green belt kick and it was free training so I took it. It is not very applicable to what I do.

    #105697
    JasonP
    Participant

    A poster over at BTP (tvp1) posted the following, which I found interesting and depressing:

    Over the past 16 seasons (2000-2015), NC State football has compiled a conference record of 53-75.

    During that stretch, we have been blessed with 4 QBs who were drafted by NFL teams. Each was a multi-year starter and stayed relatively healthy while here. 7 of those years we had a future All-Pro QB.

    In the 11 seasons started by those 4 NFL-caliber QBs, NC State went 42-46 in conference. Only 2 of those 11 teams had winning conference records. Both of those were 5-3.

    In the 5 seasons during that stretch lacking an NFL-caliber starting QB, NC State went 11-29 in conference, a cool 27.5% winning percentage. (Even removing the 2013 Thomas/Mitchell/no talent sh–show, the record is only 11-21).

    NC State has not had a winning conference record without starting an NFL-caliber QB since 1998.

    NC State has won more than 5 conference games only twice in the post-FSU era. The most recent such year was 1994.

    This means about as much about this year’s team as when TOB’s first 5 teams beat the Holes then lost the 6th game. Why look in the rear view mirror to see where you are going? Lincoln lost nearly every political race he entered. Why bother to run for president?

    The numbers seem to establish a pretty consistent trend. I hope they have no real effect on this year’s team, but looking at them puts things in perspective. The numbers also support the notion that many have put forward here that given the talent we are able to put on the field, we have no business running a traditional or pro-style offense. We need gimmicks to equalize the talent gap, and as hinted here Drinkwitz possibly brings that to the table. May he and State’s offense prosper.

    #105699
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    I have said for years we needed Mike Leach or someone similar here. We are not going to win with the standard offenses. That is why I love the Drink hire and hopefully DD lets him do his thing.

    #105700
    Greywolf
    Participant

    The numbers seem to establish a pretty consistent trend. I hope they have no real effect on this year’s team, but looking at them puts things in perspective. The numbers also support the notion that many have put forward here that given the talent we are able to put on the field, we have no business running a traditional or pro-style offense. We need gimmicks to equalize the talent gap, and as hinted here Drinkwitz possibly brings that to the table. May he and State’s offense prosper.

    I hope I can keep my end of the conversation as upbeat and level as you have.

    If we were talking about a company (team) with the same management (coaches) and workers (players) I would whole heartedly agree with you conclusions. But we aren’t. What another Coach and players have done does not mean that this coach and these players will do the same thing. What was Alabama’s mean record for the period after Bear Bryant and before Nick Saban? How about Clemson after Danny Ford and before Dabo Sweeney? With 128 teams in the FBS division the odds are that the records are going to be mediocre.

    The notion that many have put forward here is base on what? Last years record? More looking in the rear view mirror to see where we are going. In 2014 EweNC didn’t have a winning record and we beat their ass 35-7. In 2015 they were what, 11-2. All out of proportion to their 2014 record. What was the difference? All I can see is they changed DCs. The is a 5 win turnaround. We have changed our OC and O-line coach. Why not a 1 or 2 game uptick for us?

    Until this season plays out the difference between the two of us is, you say you are depressed by the past and I am excited about the future. That’s some serious food for thought. I might be disappointed at the end of the season but I’m a big boy. I can take a little or even a lot of disappointment.

    If you see something in here that I’m missing, post it. I don’t bite and I love to talk Wolfpack football. 😉

    PS
    Wanna see something really interesting? Click on the link for the article about the D-line.

    #105701
    JasonP
    Participant

    All I can see is they changed DCs. The is a 5 win turnaround. We have changed our OC and O-line coach. Why not a 1 or 2 game uptick for us?

    I’m down for the uptick, sign me up. But there’s a lot of variables in there that we won’t know about until we see the team on the field. I’d even argue that new DC they got over there really isn’t all that – I’m not impressed anyway.

    Until this season plays out the difference between the two of us is, you say you are depressed by the past and I am excited about the future. That’s some serious food for thought. I might be disappointed at the end of the season but I’m a big boy. I can take a little or even a lot of disappointment.

    That stat is depressing, but for whatever reason I look back on most of the past with fond memories (mine start with Sheridan), so the past of Wolfpack football doesn’t get me down. But looking at a stat like that can be telling. It’s no guarantee for the future agreed; and here’s hoping Doeren and Co. can break the mold. And hey, if we couldn’t handle disappointment we wouldn’t be State fans. Pulling for these teams year in and year out is not for the faint of heart or the weak-kneed. We don’t even have the glory of national titles to bask in when we have a bad season. But hey, here we are.

    I clicked on that link about the D Line earlier and enjoyed the piece. The hard work will pay off. Looking forward to it!

    #105702
    YogiNC
    Participant

    My first excitement with Pack football was with Dr Lou, but then he poofed.

    Rick, I’m a senior systems engineer at a company that does recruiting that tends to be all over the place from Hickory Farms to RTI. We also do payroll and HR and intensive survey stuff from data analysis to gathering. RTI does a ton of surveys and we handle all their stuff. Continuous Process Improvement is a daily task for us. The one thing I’ve enjoyed more than anything over the past year is a seminar on How to Get Promoted. A friend of mine wrote that book, Michael Fletcher, and I have a blast doing the seminar with his material. And yes I’m very familiar with Six Sigma in all flavors. I almost took a job last fall with a company out of Durham that does the Lean version stuff worldwide like you received training for.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105706
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Tighter?

    Trying not to bring a pre-1984 Amber Lynn into the discussion but how is that possible?

    McCallum

    How is it possible? GINGER Lynn. That’s how,Mc. Don’t make me start questioning your attractions.

    Now…before we get beyond Thursday night, when I said Drinkwitz’s style was tight, I meant that in a field relationship.

    So…what GINGER will be cooking up is alotta beef in the backfield…TEs, FBs…whatever ya wanna call ’em. There will be single splits, well, if it’s single, it ain’t splits…OK.

    GINGER likes big ones and misdirections, but she likes them all. She is not fond of little guys running to and frough from sideline to sideline, she wants to keep those boys closer…fickle.

    SHE really digs the way her front men trap and cross block the undesirable, preferring to kinda keep it straight tween her …

    More later, but Ginger ain’t no big time innovator, she’s a pro.

    #105707
    McCallum
    Participant

    I think I just came.

    McCallum

    #105709
    wirogers
    Participant

    Cowdog, you question McCallum. You have to remember that in college he lived on whatever the wino was drinking and the lunch special at the bowling alley and really wanted to be Summer Erb’s girlfriend.

    Last day of summer here in PA, winter is only a week away.

    #105712
    McCallum
    Participant

    wirogers is making fun of Hank the Drunk despite Hank’s past as he most dangerous man from Beargrass.

    Summer Erb counted as 2.5 girl friends for the normal man and that doesn’t count the impact of muff diving.

    McCallum

    #105714
    rthomas44
    Participant

    JasonP was right, you are who your record says you are. Also stated by Steve Logan.

    #105715
    Greywolf
    Participant

    you are who your record says you are.

    I was with you until you mentioned that has-been, Steve Logan. 😉

    #105716
    Greywolf
    Participant

    I clicked on that link about the D Line earlier and enjoyed the piece. The hard work will pay off. Looking forward to it!

    Here’s one about the O-line.
    http://www.gopack.com/news/2016/8/26/football-band-of-brothers-part-3-life-on-the-nc-state-ol.aspx?path=football
    You can pick up a couple more at http://www.gopack.com Go to football page and click on archived stories. You’ll see the Band of Brothers series.

    I enjoyed our conversation and see your point. The odds are not in our or anyone’s favor but if you will read through Yogi’s stuff, you will see why we think we can beat the odds.

    Go Pack!!

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