Basketball Update – One Month Left

Well, there’s one month left in the regular season and then what’s normally the best time of the college season starts.   While this year hasn’t been much fun for State fans, there is potential for a record number of ACC teams to make the Big Dance. So let’s get to it:

RPI TABLE


Since there are no ACC teams playing Thursday night, I used Thursday morning’s RPI rankings so I could have this entry ready by Friday morning. By the time this is published at SFN, there will have been some small changes because of the Thursday night games, but no relative movement between the ACC teams.

Since ESPN is nice enough to put these numbers in such a convenient format, I include them every week for the convenience of our readers even if there isn’t anything new that I want to discuss. But as it happens, there are several interesting things to tease out since I don’t closely follow any team’s season besides State.

DUKE

I found it interesting that among the 10 ACC teams building a NCAAT resume, Duke had the fewest Top 50 wins (and no Top 25 wins). So just who did they beat?

“*” – Neutral Site

So it’s been two months since Duke’s last Top 50 win. Their best ACC win to date is @GT. Bottom line? That’s not too good.

The other thing that stood out to me was that Duke continues to have the easiest ACC conference schedule. So who have they played and does their schedule get any harder?

So it’s fair to say that their second-half schedule is substantially harder than the first half and they only managed a 5-4 record against the EASIEST ACC SCHEDULE thus far. At present, Duke appears to be headed for their worst regular season in quite some time. (I remember a .500 ACC season but didn’t take the time to nail down the year.) It will be interesting to see if they can recover or not.

UNC

I’ve heard several announcers anoint UNC as the class of the ACC this year. While that may end up being the case, it’s a little premature to make that proclamation based on the results achieved against the SECOND easiest ACC schedule:

Note that their toughest ACC game thus far was also their last game in the first half…and they lost. I’ll save my proclamations for just a while longer.

LOUISVILLE

While UNC’s and Duke’s schedules ramp up in difficulty, neither matches what Louisville is facing:

Note that L’ville’s schedule difficulty actually started ramping up with their last two games in the first half. After getting spanked by UVA, it is good they managed to hold on and beat UNC. Losing two games at home would not have been a good segue into their second-half opponents, where five of the games are on the road…and all of the road games are against teams well on their way to NCAAT bids.

TREND GRAPHS

I’m feeling unusually generous this week, so I expanded the “IN” criteria to include Syracuse. With a winning conference record (after an 0-4 start) along with four Top-50 wins, there is no reason to think that Syracuse wouldn’t be included in any reasonable bracket.

I cropped the first 10 days of January off this week’s bubble graph to help declutter it. If things continue on their current trajectory, I’ll delete the teams that have fallen/falling off the low end next week. If everyone on the first graph manages to stay there, I might drop the Bubble Graph and just show Clemson’s progress through the RPI Rankings.

CLEMSON

Clemson finally moved solidly into the bubble graph this week and should be able to improve their standing beyond their current “slim chance”. Or maybe I should say if they can’t win enough with their remaining schedule to remove all doubt, then they don’t really deserve an at-large bid:

Clemson has seven ACC wins (six against Top-50 teams) and six games remaining against the bottom third of the conference. I said a couple of weeks ago that it didn’t take much optimism to see Clemson ending up with 12 ACC wins. Anything less than 12 would have to be classified as “disappointing” based on how they’ve played since the New Year.

FSU and SYR are in good shape today, but their road is not quite as easy as Clemson’s:

FLORIDA ST

FSU sits at 5-5 in conference and could wrap up a NCAAT bid before the ACCT…but could just as easily fall back into the Bubble region. Time will tell….

SYRACUSE

SYR has six ACC wins in the book. 3+ wins are certainly doable, but not guaranteed.

I find It interesting that FSU and SYR not only play each other twice over the remaining schedule, but finish the regular season playing each other in Tallahassee.

ACC STANDINGS

The top 10 ACC teams have a .500 or better conference record to go along with a minimum of two Top-50 wins. From our days on the Herbble, State fans know that both of those things are very, very good. Of course you need to hold onto that 0.500 record through the remaining month of the regular season.

I’ve always said that the loser of the 8/9 game on Wednesday would have a really hard time getting an at-large NCAAT bid. This year we might see that “really hard” doesn’t mean “impossible”.

VT has finally fallen below 0.500 with their current five-game losing streak. Buzz probably won’t get it done this year, but he’s done a remarkable job turning around the dumpster fire he took over.

UPCOMING GAMES

 

With 10 teams having a realistic chance at the NCAAT, the number of games worth watching has gone up nicely. For the remainder, I’ll check the scores on my phone and try to catch any upsets that are on cable.

State doesn’t have a mid-week game this week. They host WF a week after the Duke game.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Home Forums Basketball Update – One Month Left

Viewing 17 posts - 51 through 67 (of 67 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #99039
    ryebread
    Participant

    This site and TOS need a better search function. I was worried about the Yow hire because of the mess left st Maryland. Non-revenue sports there were great but football and men’s basketball were in a very public bad spot. Then there was the whole spending problem. These things were fairly well covered in a series of articles in the local media. Sid and TOB were goners which was a good thing, but it’d be interesting to see who she’d hire.

    I was told by the sunshine squad that it was just bitter sweaty Gary not wanting to work, a media friend of his with an ax to grind, and that Maryland’s other problems were College Park, bad fans, poor tailgating and liking crabs more than BBQ. The financial issues didn’t exist or if they did, they’d been fully investigated by NC State’s people and Yow was fully cleared.

    I said it could work, but someone really needed to watch the spending. I was told we had massive surpluses and checks and balances existed at State. To this day I am unsure about our budget. Hopefully the latter is the case. When I see things like the Reynolds project (which has little foreseeable ROI given we can’t leverage it to return to camps for men’s basketball if needed), I really wonder.

    In the end, six years in, we’re about as I expected. Non-revenue sports are clearly better, which helps the Sears Cup rankings. Spending is clearly up (but in Yow’s defense so seemingly are TV and sparred revenues). The revenue sport hires are mixed (football still needs time to play out). We missed the chance to leave the ACC (though I’m not sure Yow could do much there). I still think it’s going to get ugly.

    #99042
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Yow will be judged on the MBB and FB hires. She’s done a great job with the non revs, but let’s get real – what matters is football and men’s basketball. Too early to tell for either, but the current state isn’t all that good.

    #99054
    mak4dpak
    Participant

    Just curious, is Terry Henderson ever gonna play this year? He didn’t break anything. Any info on this news?

    #99057
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    Just curious, is Terry Henderson ever gonna play this year? He didn’t break anything. Any info on this news?

    Probably not anything meaningful.

    He didnt break anything but what he did was far worse. He tore ligaments. One poster on TOS said after a recent home game that Terry was still limping noticeably so who knows.

    I would guess the next time we see him is next season. Doesnt make a whole lot of sense to trot him out in this trainwreck to get reinjured.

    #99059
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I started a thread on the forums with the only news on Henderson that I’ve seen in weeks.

    http://www.statefansnation.com/forums/topic/henderson-still-working-back-from-ankle-injury/

    #99062
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    There is essentially three weeks of the regular season left. Best we can hope for is he comes back with a few games left in the regular season to try to get some cohesion in time for the ACC Tourney. We will obviously have to win it for any post season hopes (that includes NIT as we will have a losing record).

    #99065
    mak4dpak
    Participant

    Highly unlikely, but say Henderson makes it back for the WF game, Saturday, we win the rest of our ACC games, would be 9-9, and 19-12, with some good wins in the ACC, close losses, should we be certain we are out of the NCAA tourney? I say not impossible. And just a side note since nobody seems to track the wrestling team, they won this weekend @ #11 Nebraska, and are now 21-0 in dual matches. Go Pack!

    #99066
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Win out starting with Wake and we would likely be in. But we have yet to win two league games in a row, so, not exactly sure how we could win 7 of them (UNC, UVa, Cuse, ND). Tough road.

    #99070

    We dont have to win out in the regular season to get in we need to win the tournament.

    With the way this team never quits I could see us winning the ACC tournament to seal a NCAA bid. Keep in mind, we haven’t been getting blown out every game. There are obviously areas for improvement starting with Abu and BJ holding on to the ball.

    Say Henderson comes back a week or two before the ACCT we add a much needed scorer and a little depth. Mav has been forced to contribute early and has grown nicely IMHO. This will serve us well when Henderson comes back as well as huge impact for next year.

    #99071
    mak4dpak
    Participant

    Again we have been in all of our games in the ACC, and could have won them, so perhaps the addition of Henderson could put us on the winning side. Unlikely, but again not impossible.

    #99072
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    Gott has never won 4 ACC games in a row* so I doubt this is the team that he does it with.

    ****unless you count winning 3 of the last regular season and then one in the tourney

    #99073
    RaisedByWolves
    Participant

    For those in the Raleigh area, Pack women’s game against Wake is currently on Fox Sports South. We are up 16-8 at the end of the first quarter. (A rule change this year has them playing 4 quarters instead of 2 halves, with two foul shots at 5th team foul in each quarter.)

    #99077
    mak4dpak
    Participant

    Thanks for the reminder on the women’s game. Watching in Fayetteville.

    #99088
    Rick
    Keymaster

    We dont have to win out in the regular season to get in we need to win the tournament.

    With the way this team never quits I could see us winning the ACC tournament to seal a NCAA bid. Keep in mind, we haven’t been getting blown out every game. There are obviously areas for improvement starting with Abu and BJ holding on to the ball.

    Say Henderson comes back a week or two before the ACCT we add a much needed scorer and a little depth. Mav has been forced to contribute early and has grown nicely IMHO. This will serve us well when Henderson comes back as well as huge impact for next year.

    Five games with one guard?

    Not gonna happen

    #99095
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Rick….

    this team couldn’t win 5 in a row with two guards this time of the season…
    without a true Big Man in the Middle…
    ——————–

    We have a week off so to speak…
    next game is next Saturday….

    I’m thinking that on Saturday we will what a difference a week can make…
    which could mean winning 3 out of the next 5…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #99136
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    Grayson Allen with the intentional trip flagrant foul today. Undeniably punchable.

    #99139
    dabfvnc1
    Participant

    So my turn…I’ve been a basketball/football PSL holder for 12 years, so I’ve seen the good and the bad…and yes, I do go to as many games as I can, putting my money behind the team. This year has been tough, but most of what I’ve seen has been due to poor execution and in some cases, just plain youth. We need to figure out how to get players that stay for four years, and add some quality maturity to the program. That would go a long way towards improving the quality of play, as I’ve never been a fan of the one and done player. We have to remember in most cases, we’re talking about 18, 19 and 20 year old kids…

    So for this year, it’s not a complete loss, but the record does speak for itself. The only way I think we can be any kind of tournament team (including NIT, which still gives the players extra practice and playing time) is to win 6 of 7 and a couple in the tournament. Any less, and I don’t think they’ll make it anywhere. There are three quality wins that help, but playing consistently is the key. Players like Anya need to step up and understand that playing any kind of college sport is a privilege, not a right..and playing for State is a privilege with a great tradition. As donors, we should be demanding that they not only be playing with passion, but understand they are college students (unlike some other schools), and enjoying an experience the vast majority of us never got, or will get.

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