NIT season will result from State’s own bad habits

I think yesterday’s Wolfpack effort against the Miami Hurricanes was hilariously (and sadly accurately) summed up by the @Lee_Folwer Twitter account:

 

In hindsight, yesterday’s home loss to Miami was a microcosm of a set of consistent weaknesses that have plagued the first three years of Mark Gottfried’s tenure in Raleigh. Please note, this isn’t meant to be a critical entry or referendum on Gottfried; this is simply honest and accurate analysis of what we are seeing and have seen on the court. I fully recognize that we have to take the good with the bad in everyone and am not proposing that the bad outweighs the good with Gottfried. I also recognize that the 2013-2014 Wolfpack is very young and the future of the program appears very bright when you couple this squad with the new pieces that will be eligible next season (Lacy, Abu and the Martin twins). However, this basketball program is going to have a problem hitting up against a ceiling that is lower than we all wish if we can’t get some habitual problems extricated from our culture and practices.

The following three deficiencies proved themselves as major factors in yesterday’s embarrassing 15 point home loss to 5-10 Miami and have also consistently lacked over the last three years:

(1) DEFENSE – coming into yesterday’s game Miami had the 347th ranked scoring offenses in the country. Folks, there are only 351 teams who play Division One Basketball. How many times have we (sadly) had to make the observation that “someone is always having record games against us?” Unfortunately, that observation usually has some truth to it, and yesterday’s loss was a perfect example. The N&O shared the following specifics, “The Canes bested their season average (60.9) by 25 points. They scored 48 in the second half alone, which is more than they had in a home loss (67-46) to Duke on Jan. 22. Led by Brown and freshman guard Manu Lecomte (15 points), the Canes shot a blistering 68.2 percent in the second half and 58.7 for the game. They came in last in the ACC and 321st in the country in FG percentage (40.9).”

(2) MENTAL toughness and focus – Go figure, a let down after a fantastic effort? Have we seen that movie in the last three years? Heck have seen that movie in the last two WEEKS with Syracuse followed by Clemson? How about a win at Notre Dame followed by a 30+ loss AT HOME to Virginia? I recognize that this is a young team…but, yesterday’s game was AT HOME.

(3) Late game COLLAPSES – You probably could put this in the bucket of ‘mental toughness and focus’, but the particularly painful way that NC State lets leads slip away and folds at the end of games deserves its own category. Whether it is poor free throw shooting in the clutch, untimely turnovers, inappropriate use of timeouts or other errors in execution (some, admittedly, led by having to unfairly overcome poor officiating) , this trend couldn’t be more painful; and in many cases more controllable. How many times would NC State have won close games if someone had just hit one more free throw? In just the last three months losses to North Carolina Central, Missouri, at Wake Forest, at Syracuse and vs UNC-CH were literally pissed away in an instant with inexplicable collapses. Heck, that doesn’t even include the 17(?) point lead we held on Pittsburgh to only be outscored by almost THIRTY POINTS in just about thirty minutes of play AT HOME.

 

Today is actually a weird day for Coach Gottfried and for NC State fans. When you think about it – today literally marks the very first day since Gottfried was announced as head coach at NC State that the Wolfpack didn’t have a legitimate chance of participating in the next NCAA Tournament with performance that is/was realistically within our reach. To reach the Big Dance in 2014 it looks like the Pack will need win at Pitt and at Boston College and then probably win three games in the ACC Tournament (depending on how other bubble team’s perform). One thing is for sure, without better defense, mental toughness and execution late in games we will be having more days like this in the future.

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13-14 Basketball Mark Gottfried

Home Forums NIT season will result from State’s own bad habits

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  • #43813
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    It would be so nice to have a program where these sorts of things are not so common. It gets so old discussing disappointment on such a regular basis. One day… One day.

    I saw Bennett’s presser on SportCenter last night after winning the ACC. He spoke of the importance of defense and the rebuilding task he and his recruits embraced when he took the reigns at UVA. It took Bennett five years. We’re in year 3. I’m not saying that Gott is preaching the same things to his guys, but I don’t think we’re in a position to definitively state that he is not. Give him a couple more years. I love Washington and Anya.

    I’m all for two more years, Bennet’s teams took three years to show serious improvement.

    Kenpom AdjD numbers:
    2009 96.8 #68
    2010 96.6 #71
    2011 93.5 #26
    2012 89.1 #6 <- wow AdjO was 102 #147 (ouch)
    2013 91.7 #24
    2014 89.2 #3

    NC State over the same period:
    2009 103.3 #198
    2010 93.9 #35 <- I find that shocking.
    2011 102.1 #170
    Here’s NC State for Gott’s first 3 years
    2012 97.1 #78
    2013 98.4 #112
    2014 103.6 #150

    We’ve hovered around atrocious, and given the makeup of our current roster, I think a little regression was to be expected.

    #43814
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^67

    Was anybody else surprised to see Uncle Roy pull the 1-3-1 zone out after five years of nothing but MTM and beat Coach Rat bad the other night? (his kids said they had been practicing it for two weeks but nobody had seen it — Uncle Roy is a shifty dude)

    You GOTT to play more Zone to win today’s game.
    ————–

    … If those that want to speed the game up and make it more “offensive” (in more ways than one)… the impact will be twofold on the defensive end….

    … you gonna see more and more zone defenses… because of the foul difficulties when the refs average 45 whistles a game …
    But none of them are going to be very good… cause it’s a foreign subject to the MACFIVEONEANDDONE Kids and the NBA doesn’t play it so why learn it… AND it takes THREE years to learn how to play it reasonably well…

    … which also translates to more recruiting headaches and more player transfers over playing time cause they ain’t learning faster and conflicts with coach ’cause coach wants me to do something I don’t want to do…

    So let’s just shorten the shot clock by 5 or 10 seconds… and EVERYBODY over fifty years old can quit worrying about basketball ’cause NOBODY they know is watching it anymore….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #43815
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    How do you get that Bennett’s teams were right around where are ours are defensively for the first three? They aren’t even close.

    #43816
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    How do you get that Bennett’s teams were right around where are ours are defensively for the first three? They aren’t even close.

    Yeah, I wrote that misremembering how bad our D was. I thought we had been hovering right around 60-80. I edited it to reflect that 🙂

    #43817
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^If Gottfried could hover in the 50-60 range, and occasionally exceed that mark, his teams would be remarkable. IF you look at this NCAA tournament results and games against top flight competition, this has been his biggest problem. He’ll score at a pretty good clip but can’t stop anybody else. When you make the field of 64, you get exposed when you have weaknesses as lopsided as his are. Occasionally, you run into a hot shooting team that can outscore you, or simply an average offensive team that’s solid on the defensive end. But rarely do you ever run into a team that miraculously has a great defensive night. Just doesn’t happen.

    #43818
    Adventuroo
    Participant

    Interesting…

    I was very disappointed yesterday. We seemed to be a step behind…then caught up and played a fairly good 1st Half. THEN we just BLEW IT. Officiating was not a major factor. Vandy did NOT start well….Anya was in before the 17:30 mark in the 1st half.

    Cat played well on defense but did not have a clue what to do on offense….except panic and try to make something happen that would not.

    Lewis was doing OK on the O end….but getting eaten alive on the D end. BUT, he did not have a lock on THAT market…

    A LOT of well placed folks are not happy….they say there is too much DRAMA in the program….and if half of the comments from folks in the know are correct….then I tend to agree. However, Lutz seems to be some of the glue that is holding the program together despite the drama….so, cutting him loose would really be a bad move.

    We ARE a young team. Sometimes we can play with poise and really out hussle and out play our competition….despite their W/L or ranking….then all of a sudden, we get spooked and can’t even figure out which goal we are defending or which one we are trying to score in.

    We need Maturity….not MORE raw talent (young, inexperienced, etc.) We have the makings of a better team next year….I HOPE that Cat is telling Cal and the other pirates to GO AWAY. Cat will be a great asset…once he learns to be part of a team.

    BillOnTheBeach (expecting Snow?), I totally agree. I did NOT write DY or BP or lambast the team after yesterday. I think that we got defeated by UNC TWICE….and that sucks.

    I am STILL hoping for a good ACC Tourney run.

    As to the comparisons with past coaches….remember, Lowe psyched the guys up his first year. I caravanned to Tampa and watched us go toe-to-toe with UNC for 1-1/2 halves….and the UNC crowd was really spooked. Next year, he had HIS drama and things just sort of fell apart.

    We have REALLY been HEALTHY THIS YEAR. So Gott’s folks have done wonders for conditioning.

    Anya is on a very strict diet…problem is, he falls off the wagon (reports from reliable sources in the field) and eats like a staring Robinson Curuso on the weekends. He STILL lumbers….not runs. He still seems like his concrete galoshies are holding him down.

    Remember how we GOT GOTT? DY’s lawyers and Shaka’s lawyers stayed up ALL night on Saturday and we had a deal…but Shaka’s wife said NO….and that was the end of that. The others….they were just smoke screens….Shaka was the CLOSEST that we came to landing a coach. GW did do a number on DY….and I am GLAD that MD is gone and I hope that JS spends every last dime of the ACC reserves to extract every farthing from their sorry a$$ behinds….

    Seems like a WOE IS ME WP WE. The Lady pack looked good for 17 minutes….then THEY fell apart….down 8 at the half. BUT in the second half, they outdid themselves….they were down almost 30 points.

    With the loss of our two scorers, the tourney is NOT going to be a pretty site…unless Wes Moore wakes them up….

    Going to the ACC Tourney…already have parking laid our for our MH complex. Was not going up until Wednesday night….but it LOOKS like we are trying our darnest to get qualified for the Wednesday (Les Robinson Invitational) games…

    DY will not put up with much BS next year….the high $$ donors are already UNHAPPY about the DRAMA….and if Gott don’t produce….then he probably GOTTA find a new job….

    #43819
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Short answer to the Bennett question…

    Joe Harris, Akil Mitchell
    Both Seniors….

    ———–

    Everybody here loves BJ Anya… right ??

    BJ’s a freshman…

    How are going to teach BJ how to play good defense much less good zone defense in one season when the kid who apparently is coming from a somewhat undisciplined environment in basketball terms — shows up somewhere north of 300 pounds ???

    In spite of that…. in the last two or three games… the freshman… BJ Anya has been a difference maker in a big positive way on the floor and on the bench.

    Coach Rat, Boeheim… any other well know “defensive minded” basketsaurus / coach couldn’t do any better than GOTT & Company
    with BJ Anya.

    Plus we GOTT BJ for three more years…
    BJ will be ALL-ACC before he leaves Raleigh.

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #43820
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    DY will not put up with much BS next year….the high $$ donors are already UNHAPPY about the DRAMA….and if Gott don’t produce….then he probably GOTTA find a new job….

    I wish we had PMs, I would LOVE to know what this is about.

    #43821
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Those are very interesting takes Roo. And I know nothing about them. We all know there was quite a rift on the squad last year. Don’t know about this year but if what you imply is true then yea, Gott is going to get a stern talk or two. You cannot have that stuff in your program and expect to win big.

    #43822
    redcanine
    Participant

    1) figure out how to defend the high ball screen. figure it out.
    2) stop giving up and-1s.
    3) put pressure on the passer. passing should be difficult with an athlete in your face.

    #43823
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    oach-ing v. Coach-ability => chicken v. egg ??

    In any one year, you could argue that it is impossible to tell.
    Over time….the only common denominator stands out.

    #43824
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    However, Lutz seems to be some of the glue that is holding the program together despite the drama….so, cutting him loose would really be a bad move.

    And in a lot of ways… I wish you hadn’t but somebody was going to… so it might as well be one of our most respected members….

    I been saving this… until the inevitable post season — coaching carousel / media circus….

    Check this pic out closely… late fourth quarter or OT in the *NC game last week during the fever pitch of the battle…

    Pay special attention to the look on one of the assistant coaches face… contrast that with the rest of pic…

    Now… I know what I think that LOOK says…. but I ain’t saying jack…
    Problem is … I GOTT this from ESpin and a lot of other folks already have seen it and will be forming and spinning their own conclusions…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #43826
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    That pic speaks volumes, but I’m not sure what language.

    #43827
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^yep… at least three possible languages here… paky…

    As for the “drama”… round up the usual suspects…
    starting with those who have already shown a propensity for drama from last year and ask your questions.

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #43828
    tjfoose1
    Participant

    I realize Im in the minority, but the season has gone about as I expected, actually maybe a little better if you factor in the good showings at Sryacuse and against the heels.

    #43829
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    I realize Im in the minority, but the season has gone about as I expected, actually maybe a little better if you factor in the good showings at Sryacuse and against the heels.

    Nah, I’m not sure anybody expected much, but as a fan base we seem to live and die every game.

    #43830
    13OT
    Participant

    NIT season?

    Have we done enough yet to get there?

    #43832
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    OK, I’ll bite. Just what is that snapshot supposed to mean? Im assuming that between the lines I’m supposed to gather that Lutz is disinterested, there’s trouble on the good ship Wolfpack and a mutiny (or keelhauling) is forthcoming. However, a snapshot is just a moment in time. I might buy into that theory if there were reports from people who attended the games and can tell me that this is a pattern.

    I show you exhibit B, Coach K in agony, the assistants in various expressions from “hmmmm” to “meh”.

    Coach K

    #43833
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    The NIT seems to favor the mid majors. FSU, Clemson and Maryland are also in the running. Virginia, FSU and Maryland made it last year. Miami was the only ACC team to make it the year prior. I think we’d be in today but we need to beat BC for sure. Beating Pitt tomorrow would be nice too but that will be tough.

    #43834
    PapaWolf
    Participant

    Kudos to those of you still supportive of the program.
    To me, this is really year one. The last two years Gott was playing w/ Sid’s team.
    This team was ranked 331 in experience in D1. They were predicted to be 10th, and we’ll probably be about that.

    There’s good stuff coming.

    #43836
    PapaWolf
    Participant

    Kudos to those of you still supportive of the program.
    To me, this is really year one. The last two years Gott was playing w/ Sid’s team.
    This team was ranked 331 in experience in D1. They were predicted to be 10th, and we’ll probably be about that.

    There’s good stuff coming.

    #43839
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I expect a dance invitation in Year Four. But that’s not a very high bar to clear, IMHO. I think MG will do it, and we’ll have the chance to regain some program momentum.

    There’s quite a bit of scoring potential next year, and it should be balanced. Lacey, KW, and KH for starters. All three could be scoring machines. And I’ve seen enough the past two games to re-gain reasonable hope all is not lost with Cat.

    BSW will be much more of an asset when he doesn’t need to be counted on for 30+ minutes. That was also the case with the original, vanilla version.

    This season has been close to my expectations. It would be very disappointing to miss the NIT, and I think we need 2 more wins to feel confident of that bid. NIT-ology isn’t up for this season yet.

    #43840
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ..ply…IDK…
    the Cat ate the mouse ?

    ask BJD… he likes cats…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #43842
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    I agree with those inferring that Gott is safe through next season, with those results likely dictating the near future. A strong Ncaa birth may mean another extension, a bubble birth probably means no hot seat (not cold, either), NIT equals some real heat, less than that is most likely serious heat or possibly worse if disaster strikes.

    While I’m throwing out my worthless $.02, I also wanted to add that if we’re going to continue to get athletes like Cat, Warren, Washington, etc and have a deep roster then I would love to see more of what we saw Saturday – some 3/4 court pressure / trap or some all out press. Warren was super effective at the point of that D, and Lee was a good fit for it as well. If we’re going to play a gambling defensive style then go for broke IMO. If halfcourt defense / rebounding are your biggest weaknesses and transition offense is your greatest strength, then do everything possible to minimize the halfcourt game.

    ^If we have shooters however, that opens up many more possibilities. We can still pressure the ball on defense, but don’t have to be afraid of an actual halfcourt set when we’re on offense. I haven’t written off this season, but am intrigued to see what next season will bring. I really like the nucleus of this team.

    #43843
    MISTA WOLF
    Participant

    The only thing I notice is that coach Gottfried is upset while coach Lutz is giving someone the sign to still 2nd base

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