Last Look at the Bubble

Well we’ve reached the end of the regular season and this will be our last bubble/conference update of the year.   Doing these weekly updates has skewed my normal outlook on the season.   Other than State wins, I found myself pulling for whatever outcome would lead to an interesting conversation.   Obviously, I shouldn’t have wasted the energy because we’ve ended up with one of the most boring bubble situations that we’ve ever discussed.

3_10_IN

UVA pulled together a great regular season based on the easiest conference schedule in the ACC.   They played the minimum number of games against the other teams with a bye until Friday AND played two of those three games at home.    (I’ll try to get more out on the effect of the unbalanced schedule before the ACCT kicks off.)     Of the top 4, UVA looks to me like the only team with a chance of getting a one-seed if they win the ACCT.

Syracuse looked pretty good on Sunday, especially considering they lost two horrible games at home over the last couple of weeks.    Duke stumbled against WF (trap game on the road) and then extracted revenge against UNC.   Both teams are playing for something between a two and a four-seed.

UNC managed to climb all of the way out of the hole that they dug and then fell into.   They’re playing for something between a three and a six-seed.   Overall, the top of the ACC is quite respectable, but it gets ugly really quick:

3_10_Bubble

Pitt is in the exact same position that they were in on Jan 1…they haven’t beaten anyone worth discussing.   Based on the Dance Card, the win (ie gift) in Clemson moved them one spot further from the NIT than they were on Friday afternoon.   One of the things that I like about the Dance Card is that math doesn’t have a memory…the results are what they are.   While there might be room to question whether or not Pitt deserves a bid, the Dance Card’s results show where Pitt stands in regards to past tournament selections.

Another thing that I like about the Dance Card is that evaluating Pitt is more like looking at a third-place mid-major than the normal ACC team on the bubble.   Their one Top 50 win against a bubble team and 5th place in an overall weak conference is certainly not a good resume.    The best thing that I can find on their resume is that their worst loss was to #66 State.    So the Dance Card provides a better estimate of their position than any of the examples we’ve used from the past (which are mostly the Herb bubble teams).

FSU has two top-25 OOC wins and pretty much nothing else.    The loss to SYR moved them to about five spots below the Dance Card bubble line.   While Pitt needs just enough to stay ahead of the other bubble teams, FSU needs ACCT wins to climb over several to make the NCAAT.   The question is whether or not a win on Friday would be enough.

UMD’s win against UVA matches Clemson’s lone quality win…which gives both teams one quality win more than State (who beat three bubble teams).    So how many wins do these three need?    Before we get to that, let’s look at this table and see if it contains any useful information:

Upsets

Several things that stood out to me:

–        There were slightly more upsets in the second half of the season.

–        It will be interesting to see if Duke’s and SYR’s bad losses impact their seeding.

–        Five of the six teams playing on Wed in the ACCT have a win against the top four in the ACC.  From my seat, that says more about the top of the ACC than it does the bottom.

–        Miami and WF’s upsets will lead to speculation about the Thursday games.   However, their records show that both are vulnerable to being upset on Wednesday.

The main conclusion that I draw from the upset table, is that the middle of the ACC is extremely weak.   To me, this places the odds of any of the 5-9 seeds playing on Sunday in fractions of a percent.

If one (or more) surprising upsets were to occur, then it will be interesting to discuss what it means.   However the odds of anything interesting happening are so small that I just can’t find the energy to seriously discuss it.   For today, I’ll leave the discussion of those chances to any of our resident Jim Carrey’s.

dumb-and-dumber-jim-carrey

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Viewing 13 posts - 26 through 38 (of 38 total)
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  • #45228
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Really? Just because it didn’t happen for the Pack (at least not yet) doesn’t mean it didn’t happen for others.

    You missed several. Look at the table in the entry.

    I agree with Alpha. The middle of the conference is extremely weak…which makes the conference weak overall. State, Pitt, and FSU were a combined 0-15 against the Top 4. Clemson and UMD got one win each. That makes the middle of the conference a combined 2-22 against the top-4 seeds.

    That record doesn’t support the claim that any team can beat any other team.

    #45229
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    That record doesn’t support the claim that any team can beat any other team.

    You have to apply the transitive property. Then it all cancels out.

    I think the bottom of the conference has a better record against the top of the conference than the middle does.

    They’ve won 5 games against the top 4.

    #45231
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Does no one look at the tables in my entries?

    The bottom six went 6-26 against the Top-4.

    #45232
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Does no one look at the tables in my entries?

    The bottom six went 6-26 against the Top-4.

    I read it, but that detail wasn’t important enough to retain until I saw your comment about the middle.

    This year, I basically only care about what NC State is doing.

    #45241
    oakcity
    Participant

    Umm, we are not on the bubble for an at-large bid. Not even close. I keep reading comments from State fans saying we just need to get to the finals on Sunday to get in. Nope, we have to win the tourney to get in. That’s it.

    #45242
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    We currently have RPI of 60. I am assuming that wins over Miami, SyraDuke, and then a loss to Holes/Cavs yields an RPI of about 45. Likely we end up with at least one of Pitt or TN qualifying as a 3rd Top 50 win.

    #45244
    MISTA WOLF
    Participant

    TJ is going to be snubbed out of POTY today and in return he is going to go off for 40+ in every game and take us to the NCAA tourney. Go F’n PACK!!!

    #45245
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    It also depends on what our other bubble-mates do this week. However, we have ample opportunity that many don’t. If we get to the finals it will be very close. But nothing short of that will qualify. Too much ground to make up.

    #45269
    PapaWolf
    Participant

    TJ won POY! Outstanding, good for him.

    #45284
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    The Dance Card is being updated daily. So we’ll be able to track the changes on the Bubble if there are any upsets on Fri/Sat.

    #45337
    choppack1
    Participant

    1. We are not yet on the bubble.
    2. Win 1st round game and beat ‘cuze we are on bubble.
    3. Lose in semi’s – miss tourney
    4. Win in semi’s – definitely “in” on Saturday…
    5. Lose – back on bubble, totally dependent on what other bubble teams do.

    We are definitely setting up to be an interesting case study. Our RPI is OK going into tournament and will be close even with loss in semis, but we have had very little media attention. The cw is that we have to win the acc to get a bid, but I guarantee you of we beat Miami, cuse, and duke we will have a very good RPI.

    #45391
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I don’t know why, but Pitt jumped “up” about 5 spots on today’s Dance Card and looks to be in much better shape.

    #45393
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Very strange.

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