(12) NC STATE vs (5) SAINT LOUIS Preview

Time: 7:20 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
TV: TNT
Announcers: Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner and Kristine Leahy

The Pack is in the Round of 64 after defeating the Xavier Musketeers 74-59 in the First Four match in Dayton, OH. The Wolfpack put together one of their best all-around performances this season by getting almost a complete team effort in multiple facets on both ends of the court. Sure the Pack has been more efficient on offense this season but increasing their performance on defense just a little, it more than made up for any drop off in offensive efficiency. Anthony Barber was sick and it effected his time on the court and Warren was saddled with two quick fouls at the beginning of the game which slowed him down but everyone stepped up until he was able to find his grove. With the win the Pack has moved on to Orlando, FL to face the Saint Louis Billikens.

Getting to know them

The Billikens have had a tremendous year in the A-10, jumping out to a 25-2 (12-0) record, with the 2 losses being a 63-57 loss to Wisconsin on a neutral court and a 70-65 loss to undefeated Wichita State at home. Then something happened, St. Louis lost at home to lowly Duquesne and stumbled the rest of the way to a 26-6 (13-3) record, including a first round exit in the A-10 tournament to St. Bonaventure. St. Louis starts 5 seniors, who are in their third NCAAT but doesn’t go very deep into their bench very often. They aren’t a very tall team either, outside of a couple of 6-11 guys, they top out at 6-6.

The Billikens strength is in their defense. It’s not shutdown, low scoring type of defense, more of a make you work extra hard for your points, make you less efficient to compensate for their own low offensive efficiency. Little things like limiting the three, good defensive rebounding to prevent second chance points, forcing turnovers, and not sending the opposition to the line much.

Probable Starters
#5 Jordair Jet (6-1 215 SR) Guard – Jett has an amazing Assist Rate of 34.4%, which ranks #23 in the nation but with having the ball so much means he also has a lot of opportunities to turn the ball over, TORate 20.2%. Jett doesn’t shoot the three, only have 34 3fga this season but he does have a lot of two’s, eFG 50%, and draws a lot of fouls, 5.8 per 40, so he’s likely driving a lot to the basket. Oh yeah and he’s the A-10 Player of the Year, so he’s got that going for him.

#11 Mike McCall (6-0 180 SR) Guard – McCall is the shooting guard and he’s been pretty good this year, 109 ORtg, shoots as many 3’s as 2’s, an eFG 51%, and good at FT’s, though he doesn’t get to the line much. Can’t leave him alone on the perimeter.

#30 Jake Barnett (6-5 205 SR) Forward – Barnett is the least effective scoring option of the starters. He only has a 90 ORtg, barely shooting any 2’s, mainly living on the perimeter jacking 3’s and not that great at 30%. He’s okay at defensive rebounding 12.2% but has a tendancy to turn the ball over at 19% TORate.

#21 Dwayne Evans (6-6 230 SR) Forward – Evan has okay numbers, a 103 ORtg, 50% eFG (doesn’t shoot the 3), but is good at rebounding 8% OR and 17% DR, and drawing fouls to get to the line where he shoots 74%.

#51 Rob Loe (6-11 245 SR) Center – Loe is the match up nightmare for the Pack, he’s taken 123 2FGA (.593) and 115 3FGA (.296). Because he shoots so many 3’s his Offensive Rebounding isn’t that good but he makes up for it on defense where he’s grabbing 16% DR and Blocks 4.7% of shots (#238 nationally). This is where I think we need Washington guarding him on the perimeter and switching up when he goes inside. Did I forget to mention Loe is from New Zealand? Battle of the Bigs from Down Under.

Bench
#2 Austin McBroom (5-9 165 SO), #54 John Manning (6-11 240 JR), #1 Grandy Glaze (6-6 235 JR)

Glaze was getting a decent amount of playing time off the bench for most of the season but during their losing streak his time has been almost nonexistent. He’s a good rebounder and only plays around a the basket but turns the ball over quite a lot. McBroom has seen his minutes increase of late though that hasn’t meant he’s playing great, in fact it’s either good or awful. McBroom shoots a lot of 3’s, understandable for his size, and is their best long distance shooter (.355) along with McCall. Expect to see Manning more then he usually plays simply because the Pack has the size, just don’t expect a lot out of him.

Who has the Advantage?

NOTE: This is a look at what both teams have done over the course of the season, not how they have been playing for the past few weeks. Trust me I’d love to restrict it to just the last 10 games but that would require me to do that myself which I simply don’t have the time, and I still wouldn’t know where they’d rank nationally.

This is a matchup of State’s best against St. Louis’ best and the Billikens defense has been better then the Pack’s offense. One thing I noticed in the Xavier game, who was another team that was good at defensive rebounding, was the Musketeers limited State to only 20% Offensive Rebounding which is about 15% below their season average.

Now we have the matchup of facepalms vs facepalms. It’s best to avert your eyes when the ball moves to this end of the court. Hipster Cat needs to drop the pigtails and return to his hip ways.

Predictions

KenPom likes Saint Louis by 2 points.
Sagarin likes Saint Louis by 3.3 points.
Vegas opened up with Saint Louis -2.5.

Its extremely difficult to know what’s going to happen. Will both teams continue how they’ve been playing over the last month? Or will one or both revert to their old ways? It’s difficult to tell. One thing the Billikens have an advantage in is not only a 5 starting seniors but multiple years of NCAAT experience. The Pack has the advantage of already playing a game and getting the first half jitters out of the way. The Billikens have TONS of bulletin board material since everyone is on the Pack bandwagon and predicting an upset.

Just as everyone will wear the same clothes that they had on Tuesday, watch the game from the same spot, drink the same drinks, I’m going to continue my official pick be against the Pack. I refuse to be the bringer of bad mojo to this team. So I say St. Louis by 1.

And who knows, maybe the Pack’s new good luck charm and several posters new crush, Kristine Leahy, will stick with the Pack for as long as they are in the tournament.

HEADLINES

This is a great article by Giglio, way too much to highlight.

Joe Giglio (N&O)
Gottfried stays positive, pushes right buttons for Wolfpack’s NCAA success

Ryan Tice (TheWolfpacker.com)
In-depth look at Saint Louis

TheWolfpacker.com
Q&A: Saint Louis looking forward to facing Pack

Russ Wood (TheWolfpacker.com)
Audio: Mark Gottfried, players breaks down SLU

Fred Goodall (AP)
NC State-Saint Louis Preview

PackPride.com
Previewing Saint Louis

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
Trending down, Billikens are undaunted

Bernie Miklasz (stltoday.com)
It’s up to the ‘Sons of Majerus’

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
Loe has come a long way with SLU

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
N.C. State takes whirlwind path to play SLU

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums (12) NC STATE vs (5) SAINT LOUIS Preview

Viewing 25 posts - 26 through 50 (of 897 total)
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  • #48201
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    … ^that’s right… They GOTT to slow us down… and we GOTT to speed them up…

    if we could wave the magic wand… we would get a third of our points from set plays… a third from putbacks, garbage and 50/50 balls AND a third on fastbreaks (counting free throws made in whatever category the play was when the foul was committed.)…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #48202
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Any news on Cat? Probably gonna need him badly tonight.

    #48203
    redcanine
    Participant

    STL split the series with VCU, the 2nd best in A10. State split with Syracuse, #1 in the country most of the year.

    I’m not worried about what STL can do, may try to do, etc… We’ve done what we do against better squads than the Billikens. They’re sitting there after finishing the season 1-4, knowing that State is going to do their thing, because they couldn’t stop worse teams than us down the stretch.

    State is going to come out of the gate like John Force.

    #48204
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    One thing I’ve noticed, and it’s not surprising with a young team, and a coach that focuses on offense, our tendency has been to let up on defense when our offense isn’t firing on all cylinders. If we hit a stretch where the shots aren’t falling, or we’re not getting good looks, we absolutely must defend.

    #48205
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    They played Wisconsin and Wichita State tough. That’s impressive. Doesn’t matter how early in the season.

    #48209
    Fastback68
    Participant

    Vegas line St. Louis -3.0, smart(stupid) money had Xavier -3.5 at game time. As stated above, I don’t like media heads jumping on our wagon. We only have room for one, Kristine. Anybody with an opinion on crowd makeup? Not that it seems to matter for State.

    #48210
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Cat still eating grass?

    #48211
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    It just needs to be a decent size and fairly loud crowd — pretty evenly split between the teams…

    I hate playing games like those down at South Beach…
    and I hate hearing sneakers squeak…

    Some nights the Team gets the crowd fired up and some nights the Crowd gets the Team fired up…

    There’s plenty of Wolfpackers down in sunny FLA and I hope a good number of them can find that gym in Orlando… if so, they know what to do.

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #48215
    Fastback68
    Participant

    Kill Bill Cat and switchblades. I am one of many no doubt that appreciate the combo of insight and levity from both of you. Want this team to keep advancing/providing threads.

    #48216
    clvis
    Participant

    Maybe I am just another whiney Wolfpacker, but watching this team play without ACC officiating against Xavier was eye opening. Are we a bad defensive team, or are we not allowed to play defense in the ACC? When our bigs were allowed to play physical in the paint, I thought we looked like a much better defensive team. Also, the overall rhythm without “over officiating” made a more enjoyable overall product to watch. I hope tonight’s game is similar in flow and outcome. 🙂

    #48217
    Khan
    Participant

    Need to haul in the bricks. If TFDU can clog the lane, swipe some shots, keep the hands in check, knock down some easy Js, and stay in the game like last time, that’ll be huge. When he sits down, bring in Burgertime for a floor-bending dunk or two, and we got us a game.

    We need BRO to stay en fuego, collapse the D and kick out to Big T for the dish swish. WBPBS is finding his game again. Watch out. It’s on like Donkey Kong when he slicin n dicin. And if Street Ball is strokin it like H1 vs the Debils, then it’s game over and I mean quick.

    Gonna be sweet watching Krispy Kreme on the sidelines distracting the Billies. They think they’re ready, but if she’s got the red dress on, oh baby.

    Red by 6.

    #48218
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    ^ Bill? Are you taking credit for switchblades in socks?

    So much for trendy picks…after getting my Dayton choice in, the Pack has moved from +2.5 to + 3.5.

    The public ain’t much into trend setting.

    #48219
    JeremyH
    Participant

    “Are we a bad defensive team, or are we not allowed to play defense in the ACC? ”

    Our program is still learning how to play defense in the ACC, you might think of this at two levels.

    Regarding “trendy pick”, I doubt that besides sleep, treatment, walkthroughs, and shoot arounds, there is time for anything else. Probably a ‘no internet’ rule in place, but I defer to the coaches on that one. I have no reason to think the team that came out of the gates Tuesday is the same we’ll see tonight.

    I heard VBerg in the presser yesterday say that this is better than the ACC tournament b/c they actually have one day off between the games. P.S. he now has a hybrid Southern-Australian accent, its pretty interesting.

    #48220
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Maybe I am just another whiney Wolfpacker, but watching this team play without ACC officiating against Xavier was eye opening. Are we a bad defensive team, or are we not allowed to play defense in the ACC? When our bigs were allowed to play physical in the paint, I thought we looked like a much better defensive team. Also, the overall rhythm without “over officiating” made a more enjoyable overall product to watch. I hope tonight’s game is similar in flow and outcome. :)

    Agreed. I have been harping on it all year. I liked the way the game was called Tuesday and would not complain if all of them were called in a similar fashion.
    No matter what I hope we win

    #48222
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    …Mr. Dog…

    Over the years… I learned not to worry about all the things I GOTT credit for… even though I had nothing to do with them…

    I made some little passing comment about two pages back that only five people at SFN might understand …

    “that if we had Mo Rivers on the floor… he (Mo) would already know the name of girlfriend”
    … who had caused the Billikens to become ‘distracted’ at the end of the season and lose 4 out of their last five or whatever…

    It was a reference to Mo’s unique talent of discussing all kinds of random stuff with his opponent while running the court… a talent unequaled before or since by anyone playing in Red & White.

    How THAT gets convoluted into ‘switchblades’ and KillBillCat…. I don’t know….

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #48223
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Here’s a look at how each team has performed this year up to their sudden change in direction over the last 5 or 6 games.

    First let’s look at NC STATE:

    The pace of State’s games has slowed down dramatically which hasn’t been a negative.

    The positives are State has been extremely efficient with the ball on offense in every phase, shooting, less turnovers, more offensive rebounding, and getting to the free throw line more which could also be a result of the team making more front ends of 1-and-1’s.

    The negatives are the opposition has been more efficient as well (if you take away Duke’s outrageous ACCT game against the Pack the efficiency has actually gone down, thus the effect of a large number in such a small sample size), though not nearly enough to catch State. The opposition has been shooting the ball better and turning the ball over less but the Pack has actually reduced their offensive rebounding some and not sent them to the free throw line as much. Basically reducing the oppositions opportunity to score.

    Now a look at SLU:

    As you’d expect from a team on a losing streak the Billikens are struggling and in just about every facet of the game. Their only positives are more offensive rebounding and they haven’t been sending the opposition to the free throw line as much. The rest though, it’s been pretty bad. On offense their production has dropped, not shooting the ball as well, turning the ball over more, getting to the free throw line less. On defense their opponents are shooting the ball much better, forcing a lot less turnovers, and not getting as many defensive rebounds.

    Here’s a look at what the players have done before and during the last 5 games:

    – McCall has the hot hand, let’s keep an eye out for him tonight.
    – Barnett is playing better but he’s not effecting the outcome of games. Here’s the thing with Barnett, he’s only shooting 3’s lately, nothing else. That’s a key on defending this guy.
    – Jett is pretty much the same, a little worse but still pretty much the same. This guy is a TO machine.
    – Evans isn’t shooting the ball as well and has been prone to turn the ball over of late.
    – Loe & McBroom are really struggling, in every way. Loe is ice cold in shooting 3’s lately and has been turning the ball over.

    #48224
    MP
    Participant

    @ 1.21 J: That ^ is just outstanding information.

    #48225
    MP
    Participant

    clvis… You know anything about blueberry bread?

    #48230
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Jigs,
    That is good work. I imagine this is the type of information Brad Stevens used to use so effectively.
    Jigs is our Moneyball

    #48231
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Why does this scare me?

    “We have a funny game plan to stop Warren,” said guard Mike McCall, who will likely be tasked with N.C. State point guard Tyler Lewis, who had seven points and eight assists against Xavier. “Our defense has been good. Our practice has been great. It’s an interesting game plan going into (the game). I love defending, I love shutting guys down. It will be interesting.”

    What are they going to do, work hardest to get him in foul trouble, slap him in the balls to draw a technical, try to injure him. Or are they just talking the usual suspect of defenses, Box and 1, triangle and 2, M 2 Man w a focus on collapsing on Warren? I don’t know but the quote bothered me.

    #48234
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    ^ Well…

    Who the hell did they bring in to simulate Warren?

    #48236
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Or as Joe Peschi might say:

    ” Funny? Like ha,ha…like a clown?”

    #48237
    JohnGalt78
    Participant

    ^^ Yeah, I say that “funny” comment. What will it be? Stand Up? Slapstick? Open Mike Night?

    #48238
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    They don’t have an NBA team, so I’m not sure anyone was available.

    #48239
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Tell TJ they think he’s a funny guy

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