NC STATE vs WAKE FOREST Preview

Time: 7:00 pm
TV: ESPNU
Announcers: Tom Hart, Len Elmore

Wake has been off for a week since losing at Duke 83-63, their third straight loss. So the last time these two teams met was four weeks ago in Winston-Salem where the Deacons were able to win the Free Throw shooting contest 70-69. If you don’t remember, the trio of Brian Dorsey, Sean Hull, and Jamie Luckie proceeded to call 52 fouls sending Wake to the line for 39 FTA and the Pack for 31. You’ll also recall this was one of three games TJ Warren has fouled out of this weekend. Finally you may also remember the game winning layup by McIntyre where he took 3 HUUUGGGGEEEEE steps and wasn’t called for a travel.

Here’s a recap statistically of the game:

As you can see the Deacon’s shot the ball tremendously well but that should be expected if you’re going to be called for a foul just for looking at someone. I’ll be honest, I’ve never seen a game where a team took more FT attempts than FG attempts. The ACC must have been so proud for identifying all those tendencies. Wake didn’t disappoint in their inability to grab offensive rebounds, which is saying a lot against this Pack squad.

Projected Starters:
Madison Jones, Coron Williams, Travis McKie, A.W. Adala Moto, and Devin Thomas.

Codi Miller-McIntyre is suffering from an ankle injury that sidelined him for the second half of the Georgia Tech game and all of the Duke game. No word yet on if he’ll be playing tonight but the less the Pack sees of him the better. Maybe that bum ankle can prevent him running from the 3pt line for a layup without dribbling???

Since most of the players on Wake have played at least a couple of games against NC State I thought I’d take a look at how they have performed and who we should be on the lookout for the most.

I’d like to see Thomas’ numbers against every other team in the ACC but I’m guessing he’s salivating knowing State is next up. Just look at that Offensive Rating, 177!!! That is beyond belief for a guy who is so heavily used in those games.

Key No. 1 —- Someone tell Thomas the game is Wednesday night.

The Pack had zero answers for The Dash last game and hopefully he’s at best 50% for this game, otherwise it’s going to be another long night watching the Pack’s PG’s getting abused. Adala Moto was last games “insert unknown player’s name here who has a career game against the Pack”. A lot of that was due to making 11-14 FT’s. McKie’s and Cavanaugh’s numbers are weighted down due to their inability to not turn the ball over.

Series Notes
Overall: NC State leads 137-101
@NC State: State 57-23 (10-4 @PNC, 8 straight wins @PNC)

Magic Number: 65
NC State is 14-3 when they score 65 or more points.
Wake Forest is 13-3 when they score 65 or more points.

Now’s the time to weep
I thought I’d take a look at these two teams and see how they are faring in just conference play this season. It’s not pretty if you’re a Pack fan. Welcome to 2014 where NC State = Wake Forest.

As you can see there isn’t any difference between NC State and Wake Forest this season except Wake goes to the Free Throw line more and sends their opponents there more as well. Some real stinkers against UVA, Duke, and UNC have inflated the bad defensive numbers for the Pack in such a small sample size but doesn’t that say a lot as well.

We all want the Pack to be on the right side of the Bubble come Selection Sunday but if they don’t find another gear improve in several of these areas on both sides of the ball, then I don’t see how they will be able to do the minimum and beat Wake, Clemson, VT, Miami, and BC.

Road Warriors???
Wake Forest under Jeff Bzdelik is a staggering 2-28 on the road in the ACC. Who have they beaten during this amazing run of futility? Boston College (9-22, 4-12) in 2011/12 and Virginia Tech (8-15, 1-10) this year, 2013/14. Wake is currently 1-4 in ACC Road games this season and State is 3-2 in ACC Home games.

So what are they doing to accomplish this feat? Let’s take a look at how they are doing in the losses:


Wake Forest stats for ACC road losses from 2011-Present


Wake Forest stats for ACC road losses from 2011-Present (Opponents results)

It’s pretty obvious, WF just isn’t competitive on the road and the biggest culprit is the fact they can’t hit water if they feel out of a boat.

Here’s a side by side comparison of the averages between the 28 losses and the 2 wins.

As you can see the Deacons aren’t doing a whole lot different between their wins and losses except getting the ball in the basket more and playing horrible teams who can’t shoot.

So what does all this mean?

Well, for one thing no one should ever lose to Wake on their Home court and talk about NCAA Tournament in the same season. Second, be on the lookout early on to how well both teams are shooting the ball.

Predictor:
KenPom likes NC State by 6, so does Vegas. Personally I think on a neutral court this game is a toss up but with the game being in Raleigh I’m going with KP and Vegas.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums NC STATE vs WAKE FOREST Preview

Viewing 19 posts - 201 through 219 (of 219 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #40471
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Just sayin’

    #40474
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I wouldn’t normally bet on college sports, but according to the yahoo sports app, the line on the ND-CU game was ND-4. I would have had to put a bill down on Clemson if I was in LV

    #40476
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    ND-Clemson in 2nd OT

    #40477
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    OOPs…Clemson choking, proving once again why I don’t bet on college sports.

    #40478
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    FINAL 82-67 Pack

    It’s amazing how close the final stats are but the score is so far apart. This is what happens when Refs interject themselves into the game, as was the case in the second half.

    Buckets with the career game. Of course the media will find another reason to vote Parker the ACC Player of the week again.

    #40479
    packalum44
    Participant

    I pity the fool who gains any hope away from this game and thinks we have improved and have a fighters chance at ‘Cuse or chance to dance.

    I saw a lot of unforced errors in this game. Wait till we play the best zone in country with the best length and athletes in country in their house. Take Cuse they will cover anything under -19.

    We should slow the game down to cover.

    #40480
    Fastback68
    Participant

    ND up by 4, 6 seconds in 2nd ot.

    #40481
    Fastback68
    Participant

    Irish win.

    #40482
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    ^^^ Crap, based on this win over WF I just layed down a grand for State to beat ‘Cuse straight up. Mistake?

    #40484
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    ^^^ Crap, based on this win over WF I just layed down a grand for State to beat ‘Cuse straight up. Mistake?

    😀

    #40488
    vtpackfan
    Participant

    I liked that we hit some threes and battled under the boards some.

    WF plays a Summer League BBall game and I think it shows up in high scoring, sloppy play at time, out of whack foul a-thon. It’s contagious and teams probably feel a bit dirty after beating them.

    I thought Freeman was great and he had some good looks inside that normally he cashes in on. He will be counted on Saturday to keep a pulse in the game based on not backing down. Still won’t be enough but we are coming in with some confidence shooting from outside that frankly hasn’t been there up to now. Yes we have improved some over the course of the year in some facets. Only a nimrod would miss that.

    #40489
    tjfoose1
    Participant

    I’ll gander Syracuse @ -14.5

    #40490
    tjfoose1
    Participant

    Actually, that’s probably not nearly enough.

    #40491
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    ^Agree – it will probably be close to 20 🙁

    #40492
    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    I have no delusions of beating the ‘Cuse in their place. Last year’s team playing at its best wouldn’t have been able to do that. You’d have to go back to a Valvano team that would be able to do that.

    Anyway, the boys played very well most of the night, with some of the sloppiness that’s been a problem in the past. They still managed it well, but they also managed to handle the moments of adversity and keep their cool. That bodes well for the games after Saturday, where I give them a chance in each one of them.

    What the heck, we’re playing with house money up there, and if they play with no fear, who knows. Maybe Syracuse will come out flat and we can make it interesting. Interesting means <10pts.

    #40493
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Shit, I forgot to share any music in this thread. Here’s a win-win-win song – it’s amazing, sung by an impossibly beautiful woman, and is good for torturing oneself about an ex.

    #40494
    JohnGalt78
    Participant

    Frustrating night for the refs. Obviously they can’t put the free throws in the basket for Wake. They did all they could, but alas, came up short. Maybe next time assholes.

    #40495
    Fastback68
    Participant

    Wearing red leads to fouler profiling. Pass out the icy hot pads to all the State players waking up with kidney bruises. Maryland vs. UNX was a carbon copy of State vs. UNX. UNX 19-37 FTA. Maryland 13-20. Unbelievable air fouls on Maryland and no-calls on UNX hacking. Wake 14-31, State 12-19. Can’t wait to see year-end NCAA FT stats for those who think I’m whining. And you thought UNX graduation rates were statistical anomalies.

    #40573
    44rules
    Participant

    Just cuz I’m whining about your whining doesn’t make your whining about the blues invalid! 🙂

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

Viewing 19 posts - 201 through 219 (of 219 total)
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