NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA Preview

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Time: 1:00
TV: ESPN2
Announcers: Dave O’Brien, Doris Burke

First the bad news:

NC State head coach Mark Gottfried said after Friday’s practice that he doesn’t know if freshman BeeJay Anya will be ready to play on Saturday against North Carolina.

“That will be a wait-and-see for tomorrow afternoon,” Gottfried said when asked for an update on Anya. “We just want to see how he starts to move around. The most important thing is there’s nothing serious at this point.

“I think he has a pretty good bruise inside of his knee. We”ll see if he can get loosened up and get going. If he can then hopefully he can help us.”

New Year same up tempo Holes. I’ll give Roy Boy credit, when he says uptempo he means it.

Likely Starters:
#5 Marcus Paige
#43 James Michael McAdoo
#13 J.P. Tokoto
#2 Leslie McDonald
#3 Kennedy Meeks

Bench:
#0 Nate Britt, #22 Isiah Hicks, #42 Joel James, #11 Brice Johnson, #21 Jackie Simmons, #4 Luke Davis, #14 Desmond Hubert

To save time I’m going to sum this up:
– McAdoo, Johnson, Paige, Meeks, McDonald are the real threats on this team.
– If anyone is going to shoot a 3 it’s going to be Paige, though McDonald will take some too.
– Don’t foul Paige, he’s automatic at the line, the rest suck.
– McAdoo draws 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes. That’s good for 22 in the country. Unreal.
– The people to worry about the most for ORebounding are McAdoo, Johnson, Meeks, and James.
– Johnson only plays about half the game, mainly due to foul trouble, but takes 28% of the team’s shots. CHUCKER!!!!!

Once again the Pack face a team with a better defense than their offense. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Gonna need to ride another high eFG% to a victory.

I personally believe we will see the end of the universe when the Holes go to the FT Line…over and over and over and, well you get the point.

Magic Number: 65

NC State is 14-2 when they score 65 or more points. (NCCU, WFU)
*NC is 12-3 when they score 65 or more points.(Belmont, Texas, WFU)

Things that Make you go Hmmmmm:
– NC State has an 8-0 record when shooting the same number or more free throws than its opponents.
– NC State is 7-1 when making the same or more foul shots.
– UNC is 5-0 this year when shooting 50% or better from the floor and 3-0 when shooting 50% in both halves (Louisville, Boston College, Clemson).

Series Notes:
– The teams split a pair of meetings last season with each winning at home.
– Carolina has won 14 of the last 15, 20 of the last 22 and 37 of the last 46 games against NC State.
– Carolina is 72-22 all-time against NC State in Chapel Hill, including a 22-5 mark in the Smith Center.
– Carolina has won 18 of its last 21 games against the Wolfpack in Chapel Hill, losing in 2002-03, 2001-02 and 1997-98 since the 1991-92 season.
– UNC is 20-2 against NCSU under head coach Roy Williams, winning 15 of those 20 games by double figures.
– Carolina is undefeated against NC State in Chapel Hill under Williams (10-0).

Prediction:
Look I never, EVER, want to lose to the cheating smurfs but I never give us a fighting chance in Chapel Hell. I expect the smurfs to shoot 30+ FTs, while key players for State pick up quick fouls at the beginning of the halves to ensure they sit on the bench for extended period of times, and then late in the game Carowina players will get called for nonshooting fouls and the final team totals will look even. I expect Deputy Dog to have them fired up like he always does and do some sumo squats. I expect to see a bunch of GPA raisers doing their best high kicks. Maybe even hear some privileged white girl in the stands yell out to the State players to “Go Back To The Hood!!” Just remember though, we aren’t their rivals.

KenPom Predictor likes those cheating smurfs by 10. It’ll be worse. It’ll be much, much worse.

News Stuff:

UNC vs. NC State: Two teams rising at right time

Without getting into specifics, T.J. Warren summed up the general bleakness of N.C. State’s track record at North Carolina.

Asked about N.C. State’s last win in Chapel Hill, the N.C. State sophomore forward said: “It has been awhile.”

N.C. State’s last win in Chapel Hill? 2003.

N.C. State’s last win over Roy Williams in Chapel Hill? Never.

[snip]

Pack peaking at right time

The first ACC game against UNC has always been a mile-marker for N.C. State. This trip is no different for the Wolfpack, which moved up to No. 57 in the RPI after its best win of the season (over No. 32 Florida State on Wednesday).

N.C. State’s confidence has grown with each ACC win. The FSU win evened the Pack’s ACC record at 4-4. The confidence from the past three wins has helped put a pair of earlier 30-point losses, to Virginia and Duke, in the rearview mirror.

“A little bit, but you have to definitely remember that they are there because that could easily happen any game in this league,” freshman forward Kyle Washington said.

Washington said the Pack learned from the Virginia and Duke losses.

“If we didn’t, then we’d have a problem,” Washington said.

Third-year coach Mark Gottfried has been particularly pleased with his team’s resilience and spirit. The variety of contributions, from a variety of sources, during the winning streak also has been a key.

Guard Tyler Lewis, who has 10 assists and one turnover in the past two games, has been important, especially after the Pack turned the ball over 21 times at Duke.

Guard Ralston Turner’s jumper – he has eight 3-pointers the past three games – has helped open some space for Warren and Desmond Lee.

Washington has provided a spark with his mid-range game and defense.

“It has been a group effort,” said senior forward Jordan Vandenberg, who had a key block in overtime against Georgia Tech.

To Gottfried, the most important part has been his young team has gotten better since the start of ACC play. That’s what he wanted to see and hopes to continue to see.

“We’ve got to play the way we’ve been playing,” Gottfried said.

UNC coach Roy Williams on rivalry with N.C. State: It probably means more to me than typical UNC fan

North Carolina fans might not view N.C. State as much of a basketball rival, but Roy Williams does. It’s always been that way for Williams, who briefly reflected on Friday about how and why games against N.C. State game to be more important to him.

The Tar Heels and Wolfpack resume their rivalry – as one-sided as it has been for, oh, the past 25 years or so – on Saturday at the Smith Center.

“I always have appreciated the rivalry,” Williams said. “I’ve enjoyed it. But I think it is a big rivalry. It probably means more to me than the typical North Carolina fan. It’s just because of the closeness and some buddies that were North Carolina State students when I was in school here. It was a personal thing.”

Williams has told the story often before, but it goes something like this: When he went off to school at UNC in the late 1960s, some of his friends from back home in Asheville gave him grief about it. Those friends of Williams went to N.C. State. Williams took the ribbing personally, and his disdain for the Wolfpack was born.

Containing Warren top priority for Tar Heels, Tokoto

“He has to affect what you’re doing defensively,” Williams said of Warren at a press conference Friday. “We have to be willing to help off of him. We have to understand that he does a great job of when he misses a shot going right back up to the board and getting the rebound and putting it back in.

“We’ve got to get a body on him and wall him if it’s inside and bother his shot if it’s outside, but then get a body on him and stop him from getting to the boards. He’s about as efficient of a player as there may be is in the league.”

[snip]

Although the job of defending Warren will be a team effort, Williams said the player with the responsibility of shadowing the Wolfpack star – at least, to start the game – will fall on the shoulders of 6-5 sophomore J.P. Tokoto.

“I think he’s getting better and better defensively,” Williams said of Tokoto. “He, as well as a lot of other guys on the team, has got to stop fouling as much. I think that J.P. before he quits is going to be one of the best defenders we’ve ever had.”

Tokoto is going to have his hands full Saturday.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA Preview

Viewing 25 posts - 226 through 250 (of 253 total)
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  • #39637
    JeremyH
    Participant

    “Awful game plan and preparation. Average coaches won’t ever beat equal to higher talent without luck.”

    Is this really true? Our role players did great against FSU at home, but we are an underclassman team on the road, in CHeat-Hill, what did you really expect? Were those expectations realistic?

    I think they started flat and took too long to get into the flow. Is this typical of any team coming off a “high” victory couple days prior, or is Gottfried just such a terrible coach? (Another good question for opinionators.)

    I love what Des Lee did today. He and the freshman will likely make a jump next year in their play and we have reinforcements in talent at guard and size.

    #39638
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    This room cleared out quickly.

    #39639
    john of sparta
    Participant

    three opinions:

    1. during the first half, the refs kept us closer than otherwise.
    2. in the second, we went school-yard and it worked for a while.
    3. global warming update: pitchers and catchers report next week.

    #39641
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    To add insult to injury, Clemson knocks off FSU today.

    #39643
    Texpack
    Participant

    If we shoot 35% in the first half instead of 25%, it’s a ball game. We missed a lot of easy easy shots.

    I still think this team will continue to develop. We can still play our way onto the bubble. Most objective analysis before the season had that as our ceiling. That’s why the “Gott can’t coach a lick” mantra rings a tad hollow with me.

    #39644
    PackFan
    Participant

    I’m also giving Gott the benefit of the doubt. This is year 3, and a pretty young team generally speaking. I’m with wufpup; we are leaps and bounds ahead of where we were.

    #39645
    wolfatthebeach
    Participant

    “That’s like calling someone a tall midget.”

    This really isn’t a fair statement because HWSNBN was a good coach, he just wasn’t a great coach. He had taken the team as far as he could and it was time for him to move on.

    #39646
    packalum44
    Participant

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

    Anyone who uses pre-season expectations or NC State’s previous 2 coaches to rate Gottfried is suffering from a cognitive bias called anchoring.

    Gottfried is an average coach. He’s not awful like Sidney Lowe. He’s average. I don’t think he’s significantly better or worse than the majority of BCS college coaches.

    The cream rises to the top however, and he certainly is in no way, shape or form a “good” coach.

    He’s a really really good recruiter and average coach. We knew this when we hired him. A down year will be what you see – but make no mistake, about 20-30 coaches would have our team playing much better. More years than not we’ll have enough talent to make the dance and if we’re lucky, perhaps we’ll have the perfect mixture of talent and maturity to make a Final 4 run.

    If you gave Gott 10 years I bet he could make one Final 4 run.

    Whatever.

    I suggest Debbie keeps him a few more years until Archie Miller is ready. We may not have long until Archie is hired away and I Groundhog Day resumes as we bang our head on the wall AGAIN b/c we accepted the status quo. How’s Sean Miller doing at AZ…the same Sean we could have hired instead of LOWE?????

    We need a good coach AND good recruiter to be the program most alumni aspire to be. At least Archie will inherit a talented class (like Gott) and rebuilding won’t be mentioned.

    Let’s hope Debbie has the courage (and $) to can Gottfried sooner rather than later. If we’re lucky he’s hired away.

    #39647
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    How’s Sean Miller doing at AZ

    Or Greg Marshall.

    #39648
    vtpackfan
    Participant

    Today’s loss coupled with FSU’s bed wetting at home pretty much sealed the deal. We will need a win @Cuse or two big wins in Greensboro to even come close.

    I didn’t mind seeing KWash shoot so many x today and would like to see Freeman get in on the act as well. Frontline scoring would completely change how we attacked the goal.

    TL is a spark plug that needs a little spark himself. Gott has played the hand of two PGs pretty sloppy at times, and today was the worst.

    Cat had it thrown in his face repeatedly and we were stuck with a 2 on the scoreboard for nearly five minutes.

    Instead of getting TL in there early he waited til Cat really pissed him off a substituted with 8 on the shot clock.

    TL gets covered up as soon as he picks up his dribble, passes off and creates a shot clock violation. Produces instant public ass chewing from the HC and now you have both PG’s going south.

    There were plenty of face palm 25% shooting moments, but that sequence defined how Gott Coaches loose and sloppy in games we have barely any margin for error.

    #39649
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    What a great Cuse/Duke game that was. Fantastic basketball. They are both light years ahead of us.

    My global view on Gott is that he was an above average coach at Bama. Pretty good studio analyst. Then a great first year here. A very poor second year. And he’s doing about how everyone expected this year. I’m not in DY’s mind but I can only guess that she’s very interested to see how we conclude this season and fare next season. If both are substandard then I do think a change could very well be in order. She’s just not into fielding slightly above average teams. She pays very close attention to what other coaches are doing.

    #39650
    john of sparta
    Participant

    regarding DY…who would want to?
    we’ve already done this dance.
    it is what DY says it is.

    #39653
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Hey … for some reason… WordPress won’t let me post…
    Mods…GOTT any clues why ??

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #39654
    Prowling Woofie
    Participant

    Haven’t looked at the box score (too depressing) but was in attendance at the butt-whipping today, and I think we got a whopping five points from the quartet of Vandy, Anya, Washington, and Freeman. Warren scored 21, but could’ve had 40 had he not disappeared (again) for stretches of the game. He had absolutely no help today from his front-court mates. None. Allowing the Holes 3-4 shots every trip down was humiliating. If they can’t score, they should at least be able to block out and rebound, for Pete’s sake !

    Our only offensive play today was the weave up top until Des drove it down the lane. Got away with it a few times, but then Roy clogged the top of the key to take that away.

    Youth, schmooth. It’s February. What the heck are our coaches doing every day ? There doesn’t appear to be a whole lot of teaching/learning going on.

    #39656
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    Anyone who uses pre-season expectations or NC State’s previous 2 coaches to rate Gottfried is suffering from a cognitive bias called anchoring.

    ^Fair enough. Saying Gottfried is way better than the previous two coaches does not equate to rating him or calling him ‘great’, though. Different things entirely. It will always come down to the same things: money, timing, and whether or not the next girl is (perceived to be) better. Opportunity costs vs. trade-offs.

    I believe in objectively laying out all pros and cons of any ‘situation’ as opposed to pushing a judgement … Very comfortable in saying I’m in the minority here on this.

    For example, saying “I am proud the team did not quit” does not equate to “wow, we have a great team and the next John Wooden is on our sideline! Doesn’t matter that we’re losing! It’s all ok!” Yet people have this infuriating habit of taking the former quote and twisting it into the latter quote. Interwebz ftw.

    #39657
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    I did catch some of Gott’s post game and at one point he talked about how proud he was that we cut it to 12 late in the 2nd half, and I said to myself I’ve heard that one an awful lot in the past. He also talked about being completely inept on offense in the first half, saying we were “dazed”.

    #39658
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    As a coach, MG is “good” but not “great.” He’s shown enough flexibility and salesmanship that I think he COULD grow into something more.

    HWSNBN is a notch below at “pretty good” and his style clearly limited our ceiling as a program. He’s a better fit at someplace like Arizona State.

    Les and Sid put the dumpster in “dumpster fire.”

    After suffering through the HWSNBN death spiral and then FIVE freaking years of Sid…I am not eager to re-enter the coaching carousel until we see how things play out over at least 5 seasons of MG. And hell, 1 Final Four run in 10 years would have me dancing for joy. After all, we haven’t had once in 31 f-cking years. Nor an Elite Eight in 28.

    We also need to put quite a bit of distance between the really damaging things DY said about NC State during the “pity party” stage of our last coaching search. I can move past it to credit the good she’s done as a leader, but I won’t ever forget that.

    #39659
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    There were MAJOR chemistry problems last year, and I’m not sure MG had many options other than to try to hold things together with duct tape and chicken wire. There were aspects of his leadership I did have a problem with (no details forthcoming), but they haven’t recurred this year. Learning experience, and he has indeed managed a more cohesive unit (plus finally a deeper rotation) this season, one that plays hard, with players who don’t hate each other. Hell, we had two guys volunteer to be KH’s crutches during the FSU game…not easy duty and wouldn’t have happened last season.

    It would be easy for this young group to feel sorry for themselves and be 2-7 in the league right now. But they’ve fought through it, and are still on track for the NIT at least. That would be ok…THIS season. You won’t make the dance every single year. And that shouldn’t be the goal either – more peaks and valleys will get us closer to where we want to go (ie, the “V standard”).

    If all goes according to plan, we will dance next season and be the team that nobody wants to play. Then in 2015-16…we could be truly special.

    #39660
    choppack1
    Participant

    A couple of random thoughts:
    1. Before this game we were “in” on the dance card coming in at #44. Fsu’s loss to Clemson didn’t help though.
    2. We were atrocious on the defensive boards. No surprise there – we have been awful all year in this area (and it is becoming a trait of the Gottfried era.)
    3. Our guys don’t get back fast enough on d…another trait.
    4. We did fight back and didn’t give up.
    5. Regarding next year or the year after – there is no way to think one year or the next since we will likely have plenty of early departures in the next 2 years and I doubt our coach will change his rebounding/teaching philosophy.
    6. Not thrilled at all with dy leading another men’s basketball coaching search. Between the cold shoulder to Marshall and the embarrassing public meltdown, I think our options won’t be to good with her leading it.

    #39661
    GoldenChain
    Participant

    I don’t understand.
    Paige and Macadoo have come out of their slump and been on fire the last 5 (now 6) games. We did manage some gutsy wins with with Warren on the bench in the last week but let’s face it, we just ‘got by’ in those wins. Xarolina has some WTFreak L’s but also some big wins. They were a 12 point favorite according to yesterday’s Observer. We lost by 14, and now people are upset that we didn’t win on the road at their place (after all we’ve won how many there in the last 30 years)?!
    What were you thinking?! Seriously.

    A couple of observations I’ve had all season:
    – we can’t hit a FT, especially when it matters like on the front end of a 1 & 1.
    – our big men are flat footed too often.Period.
    – our small line-up is better than our big line-up, if I had a sugegstion I’d tell Gott to do what Roy did last year and switch it up mid-season and start small and fast then when the game settles in bring in the bigs

    I look at it this way: we’ve obvioulsy had a couple of total cave-in games and I was worried early that this would be another but it didn’t turn out that way so that’s progress because if Roywonderboy could have buried us by 30 he would have.

    #39662
    packalum44
    Participant

    Amazing how a woman who bats over 50% in coaching hires in a job with baseball averages is given such a short leash but the coaches are afforded significant latitude. I’ll refrain from going to my cognitive bias dictionary. Doesn’t seem fair tho.

    Marshall is still there for the highest bidder. Pass. Could he recruit top 10 classes like Gott? I’m not sure. That was his Achilles heel. I won’t trade one flawed coach for another. Remember Gott had his team ranked #1 at Alabama and claims an Elite 8.

    I’m realistic with Gott. He’s the best we had since V and has a high ceiling albeit with high volatility. Roy is an avg coach – which I define as within 1 st deviation around the mean – yet has rings. Caveat I don’t see Gott accumulating comaparable talent levels consistently.

    Bottom line is I’ve seen enough of G to make a an unwavering assessment. If I’m Deb I keep him around until Archie, who appears to be a great coach and great recruiter like his brother, is ready. This may be sooner than we think. You don’t repeat history and watch a gem get hired to a bigger school. We’ll just keep banging our head against the wall…only if…Jimbo, Sean Miller.

    #39663
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Marshall is still there for the highest bidder. Pass. Could he recruit top 10 classes like Gott?

    Does it matter? He led WICHITA STATE to the Final Four last year. He’s currently 21-0 and ranked fourth in the nation this year. I will take his #-whatever recruiting classes for results like that any day of the week and twice on Sunday. It is about coaching. And he has won wherever he has been, and won BIG.

    #39664
    vtpackfan
    Participant

    The scoring was dead even over the final 31 minutes. 4 of our 5 misses from the FT line come from TJ and Cat-could see the “dazed look” Gott mentioned on both of them early on.

    Speaking of early-drop Vandy out of the starting lineup already. The only plays he can make are in late game sitiuations when fatigue is setting into the other teams bigs. I think giving him minutes near the end of each half maximizes his usefulness. He has gotten us to the halfway point of conference season and allowed the young guys to adapt to the level of play. Continuing to start him and expecting better scoring and rebounding moving forward is assanine.

    #39666
    choppack1
    Participant

    Thank you wulfpack. The man has built and sustained success and both of his schools….but I guess some guys would prefer a great salesman. Good news for 44 though is that apparently yow shares your opinion. She interviewed him and wasn’t impressed.

    So far Marshall has the last laugh and is setting himself up nicely for duke or UNC depending on which geriatric coach steps down.

    #39667
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    I hope when the next big time coach is available, we aren’t sitting around with our thumb up our butts like we were with Sendek and Lowe.

    Also, this is a test to see if I can post.

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