Saturday Expansion (3:45pm Update)

As expected, this is all moving very quickly, and there is plenty of ongoing (opinionated) discussion on the SFN Forums about the inevitable next round of college football expansion and realignment, and more precisely, how it will affect State. So go on over there and join the fun, and it’s likely you’ll even win a $100 Walmart gift card, or maybe one of the few remaining ipads!

Also check out the previous few SFN Blog discussions here and here. If you’re curious about when all this chaos started (especially the younger among you), you can read about the evolution of expansion here.

Today, Joe Schad at ESPN is reporting that Texas A&M will become the 13th member of the SEC as early as Monday, and that Missouri, Florida State and Clemson are also “likely to join,” probably later this month (full column with videos).

Everyone expects the SEC to become a 16-team league, and for the Big Ten to eventually follow, and perhaps even the new Pac-12.

Our question is, how will this affect the ACC, and more particularly, NC State? Quite simply: who knows? The ACC is in a really tough position here, because there aren’t many options that strengthen its football positioning in terms of TV revenues, which, as we’ve noted previously, is all that matters. Also keep in mind that with the addition of TCU in 2012 (and its Texas TV markets), the Big East may very likely negotiate a favorable deal for the football portion of its TV contract; combined with the potential raid of the ACC, the Big East may be solvent enough to stave off a future Big Ten raid. In fact, if Villanova joins as a full member (as expected), it will probably look to expand from 10 to 12, and look for two more teams (possibly even from the ACC). This very well could negatively affect the ACC’s efforts to remain a player in the BCS picture, and thus limit its potential TV revenue. The Big East and ACC may both look towards Memphis (FedEx support), Central Florida (commuter school or not, it’s a big TV market), and/or Navy (far-reaching appeal), but any of those teams alone don’t enhance your reputation enough to secure mega-TV deals.

Now, let’s not be overly dramatic: The ACC won’t dissolve, it will continue to exist, although it’s likely it will look vastly different in a few years. For everyone that wishes the ACC would revert back to its basketball-first roots, you may well get your wish, although not as the cozy eight-team league it once was. That structure simply isn’t profitable nowadays. College football is now behind only the NFL in terms of TV revenue, and the new SEC deal with ESPN alone will probably be in the range of $4-5 billion over 10 years. The Pac-12, Big Ten, and SEC already each have a TV deal that pays each member $20-23 million annually, and that’s expected to increase (the SEC may pay out upwards of $30 million). Meanwhile, the ACC deal currently pays each of its members $14 million annually, and it will be hard to maintain that with Florida State and Clemson gone (and possibly Maryland and maybe others).

What you may see the ACC do is take the pragmatic approach: concede its attempt at football prowess and look at options that maximize its basketball revenue (remember, for the ACC, the basketball portion of its deal is bigger than its football) — in which case, it would have to look towards adding more northeastern teams (and their TV markets). However, that could be disastrous for any of us that hoped to someday go to the Orange Bowl, or, heck, even the Peach Bowl.

Now, back to Texas A&M: the Aggies are in a unique position to accomplish this kind of move: they may not be the preeminent Texas school, but they still take the SEC two top-10 TV markets and one of the top three recruiting states. In a strange way, they probably have quite a bit of leverage right now, and it’s at least possible this could all be an attempt to somehow become a partner in the Texas Longhorns Network and stay at home.

Now, here’s an idea for the ACC to consider: With both Texas A&M and Missouri looking to the SEC, as well as the inevitable departure of Texas from the Big XII, who this may be really be worrying is Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, who will certainly become targets of the Pac-12 (as well as Texas Tech). So, my opinion is that John Swofford should be on the phone immediately with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (both have strong recruiting inroads and alumni bases in Texas), and then Texas Tech. Everyone else wants those Texas TV markets, why shouldn’t the ACC go after them, too?

**3:45pm Update:
SportingNews.com reports “a high-placed SEC source told Sporting News the conference will stick to 14 teams and not advance to 16.” I would have to imagine that with Texas A&M as the 13th, then Florida State or Missouri would be the 14th, and Clemson is out of the equation.

Regarding Clemson, it’s tough to find any sourcing for their inclusion beyond speculation by a source close to Doug Gottlieb. The consensus among the SFN faithful seems to be that Clemson adds far less than its Textile Bowl rival. But there may be other factors at play here. My personal viewpoint is that by virtue of adding Clemson, the SEC enhances its brand, and in turn its negotiating position, by cutting into the ACC market share. In the case of Clemson, it would seem the SEC may see more value in dominating the South Carolina market — keep in mind that you can consider the Charlotte market among this, and with Clemson in the SEC that market would then be split — than adding the North Carolina market.

This is all very unnerving, sure. But stay tuned as this plays out.

About LRM

Charter member of the Lunatic Fringe and a fan, loyal to a fault.

ACC ACC & Other

49 Responses to Saturday Expansion (3:45pm Update)

  1. JSRy2k 08/13/2011 at 5:26 PM #

    Feels like a national GREED epidemic to me. Not a bad thing to want more revenue for your school, but geographically it’s all crazy and it just plain makes me feel sick. Definitely no environmentalists heading this up (see: travel costs & fuel expenditure)

  2. highstick 08/13/2011 at 6:03 PM #

    Joe Don “Looneybird”, the AD at Clemmons has announced that they are leaving the ACC and that they will win the national championship this year..

    Bull!!! The more I think about Clempson, the less I think they’ll jump cause they will get their butts ‘waxed” for years…At one time they had a recruiting advantage in SC and the ACC. That isn’t the case in SC anymore and it certainly would not be the case in the SEC.

    Plus, you can’t go hide your “antics” in Pickens County cause the rest of the ACC would be all over your Purple Butts!!

  3. HPWolf 08/13/2011 at 6:24 PM #

    I tell you that this conference expansion epidemic is getting out of hand. TCU joining the big east and Texas A&M joining the SEC geographically makes little sense. How long are the teams going to spend on the plane flying half way across the country for a game where practically none of the visiting team fans can attend. I know that it is all about the money the member teams can divide up but hell, that is the problem. Why not just throw off the pretence of college athletics and call it semi pro ball. That way we can follow the NFL model and have a play off. In all seriousness I hope the ACC stays intact and we find a way to increase our revenue. If we had not performed so poorly in BCS bowls over the last 10 years we could have negotiated a more lucrative contract. The key is winning and winning big and until the ACC wins a national championship(this decade) we will be viewed as a weak football conference. Maybe that is why FSU and Clemson are looking at greener gridirons. Let’s hope swofford is up to the task of holding this thing together.

  4. Gene 08/13/2011 at 6:30 PM #

    “Why not just throw off the pretence of college athletics and call it semi pro ball.”

    Heard this suggested somewhere else, but the European club leagues, which allow for some boosterism would be a good model to follow.

    Have the A League clubs, B League clubs, C League clubs, etc. Each has its own play offs and own titles.

    Big time money has turned college athletics into MLB, with the rich schools being able to spend in ways to bury the “sisters of the poor”.

    The fact the NCAA has let this happen just shows what a joke that organization is in protecting the amateur nature of college athletics.

  5. packalum44 08/13/2011 at 7:00 PM #

    “Keep in mind that the PAC 10 was raiding the Big 12 last year only to get Colorado. Yawn.”

    That’s not right at all. They were trying to become the Pac-16, actively pursuing Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Colorado.

    @LRM: How is my statement wrong? They tried to raid the Big 12 and got the armpit (which is good if you’re NC State looks like these conferences pick low hanging fruit). I tried running 26.2 miles yesterday and made 3 before I fell over.

    My main point is that the chances the worst case scenario (for State) happens is not likely.

  6. LRM 08/13/2011 at 7:13 PM #

    packalum, I misread your statement as Colorado was the only target. I see now I screwed up and misinterpreted. My apologies.

  7. HPWolf 08/13/2011 at 7:25 PM #

    I say we raid the SEC for 4 teams. If they can offer our schools membership why can’t we go after theirs. Who knows, maybe they have some member schools that would like to make a change. Maybe ACC basketball is more attractive to some of them than their second level sec football programs are. In a few years the money may even out. If we could talk Florida into coming over then everything changes. ACC basketball has to look very attractive to Florida and then the football tv contracts could be renegotiated. I don’t see how this is any crazier than everything else going on.

  8. packalum44 08/13/2011 at 7:28 PM #

    Charlotte is not SC no matter how much the Palmetto State would like you to believe. Charlotte is ACC country all the way. Whatever happens our leadership better damn be behind the scenes right now posturing us as best they can.

    For all the pessimist, please explain why the low hanging fruit is all that has been plucked (i.e. Texas A&M and Colorado/Utah).

  9. LRM 08/13/2011 at 7:35 PM #

    Seriously, c’mon. You can’t make an argument that an SEC team poised to make $25-30 million annually due overwhelmingly to its football contract would leave the SEC for basketball reasons and expect anyone to take that argument seriously, especially if Florida is your example.

  10. hoop 08/13/2011 at 7:47 PM #

    “Hoops, I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just trying to rationalize why the SEC would pursue Clemson over State or Carolina. There’s obviously a reason.”

    Do you know for a fact that the SEC actually wants or wanted Clemson in their conference? I know Clemson has stated they are committed to the ACC, but that was just a development today.

  11. HPWolf 08/13/2011 at 7:48 PM #

    LRM,
    No, I honestly don’t think we have a chance in hell of getting an SEC team to come over to the ACC but I’m grasping at straws here. BUT…stranger things have happened and you never know until you ask. Ya think there are any programs in the SEC that feel like their being treated unfairly compared to the Alabamas and Auburns. We get the short stick compared to Duke and Carolina. I gotta believe they have some red headed step children too.

  12. LRM 08/13/2011 at 7:51 PM #

    “Do you know for a fact that the SEC actually wants or wanted Clemson in their conference? I know Clemson has stated they are committed to the ACC, but that was just a development today.”

    Honestly, I think this could very well be nothing more than Clemson leaking this to enhance their image and gain some kind of leverage, because it doesn’t make much sense to me, either.

  13. HPWolf 08/13/2011 at 8:04 PM #

    Its all rumors right now and even the insiders would be providing misinformation till the deal is done. Again, I hope the ACC stays as it is. I believe we at State are poised to make some waves and FSU sure looks like they are on their way back as well. The SEC moving to a 16 team super conference makes sense from a dollar point of view. To do this they must add high profile teams in big television markets. This will be interesting to watch as it plays out.

  14. blpack 08/13/2011 at 8:08 PM #

    Swofford is asleep at the wheel it seems. He should be canned. One thing Clemson should say is tell him they want his resignation or they will begin/continue talks with the SEC. Pay back. I would never have thought about State leaving the ACC six months ago. Now it doesn’t seem so far -fetched. More about money than winning. And what is best for a particular school. We will have to decide if we are a football or basketball school. Then go be the best.

  15. Wulfpack 08/13/2011 at 8:41 PM #

    From a financial standpoint, every school must be a “football” school.

  16. eas 08/13/2011 at 8:43 PM #

    FSU or VT will make the most sense here but the Florida Market is already in the SEC? So NC State actually has a decent shot after VT. Missouri has a good Market and would be a decent fit. Honestly, NC State is a good football team but the size/ talent level in the SEC would be tough on us. I would love to scrap BC, Miami and MD personally. I think FSU has been a good match for the ACC. Either way, money is the object here and whomever offers the biggest advantage financially will be in the SEC.

    Swofford better get his “ram” head out of his rear or this will be an ugly finish for the ACC.

  17. gotohe11carolina 08/13/2011 at 9:56 PM #

    let’s not be ridiculous guys if the sec wants tv sets in nc don’t expect our phone to be ringing. the only thing that would hold up the unxers from dumping the acc and joining the sec is th fact that let’s face it msu or ark aren’t exactly public ivy institutions. this news really ruined my weekend. I hope the sec schools all drown in the swimming pools of money they will be filling with their new tv deal.

  18. timberwolf 08/13/2011 at 10:06 PM #

    If a university wanted to leave a conference for another, I assume the BOT has the final decision? I cant get my head around the hypo that State could cut itself away no matter what the money. IF it is the BOT decision. And you know why.

  19. drgreenhouse 08/13/2011 at 11:52 PM #

    Breaking News – AP –
    Memphis, TN

    Tired of being overlooked by the other major schools within their home states, and tired of being ignored in the Super Conference Sweepstakes the “Second Fiddle Conference” has been started with the following 12 new members:

    University of Cincinnati
    Colorado State University
    Georgia Tech
    Iowa State University
    Kansas State University
    University of Louisville
    University of Memphis
    Mississippi State University
    North Carolina State University
    Oklahoma State University
    University of South Florida
    Texas Tech University

    Coach Lee Fowler, thanks to his ties to two former schools in the conference, has been selected as the conference president, thanks to his penchant for fundraising and for growing “fuhcilities.” After getting out of the shadow of the other schools in their home states, Coach Fowler stated, “At least when we are all together, some of us will achieve some success. I guarantee everyone will finish in the top 3 in something in the conference”

    The only drawback will be that the new conference will not receive an invite to a BCS game, the conference winner instead will receive an automatic bid to the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA. Bowl bids to the Continental Tire Bowl, Micron PC Bowl, Liberty Bowl, and the Alamo Bowl are being negotiated. Also, one game per week will be featured on the New Longhorn Network. Further comments from Coach Fowler stated “The new network will give us a footprint in at least 4 – 5 K homes per week. I need to run I have a party for some cougars in my lake house…”

  20. Dogbreath 08/14/2011 at 7:12 AM #

    Add ECTC, Central Florida, UNC Charlotte, and Middle Tennessee to that list, and you’ve got Lee Fowler nirvana.

  21. albunde6 08/14/2011 at 8:54 AM #

    Upside to joining the SEC. 3 we would no longer be called the “university of nc wolfpack”. 2 UNX would have no impact on athletics. 1 instant home football schedule upgrade.

    Downside to joining the SEC. ???????

  22. whitefang 08/14/2011 at 9:25 AM #

    “Downside to joining the SEC. ???????”
    IF all this is true there is no downside. The ACC is as good as cooked.
    It appears that Swofford has been living in la la land. I only hope that his apparent lack of interest in the UNC debacle is only because he has been proactively working on strengthening the ACC position thru recruitment and has met some success that will soon been announced.
    Clemson perhaps could be persuaded to stay IF there is something exciting happening behind the scenes. FSU is as good as gone if the SEC invitation actually exists.
    The last ACC expansion which appeared to be some sort of coup at the time has turned into feeble slap at the Big East who may very well deal the death blow soon.
    The ACC seems to have been lured into complacency by the Duke-Carolina basketball false idol, when football was the real shrine they should have been worshipping at. Likely Swofford’s baby blue colored glasses blinded him the light until it was much to late I’m afraid.
    The ACC history is just that. Nostalgia. Nostalgia will get you ESPN 360 and occasionally ESPN 2 at 11:00pm.

  23. Packfan28 08/14/2011 at 9:43 AM #

    Why would the SEC pursue Clemson over a Carolina school? I have 9 million reasons. $31M in football revenue for Clemson, compared with $22M for each of the Carolinas. VT at $31M as well by the way.

    The average profit in the SEC is $30M. Clemson is at $14.7. Here NC State is pretty good. 3rd in the ACC at $11.6M.

  24. Dogbreath 08/14/2011 at 4:00 PM #

    How’s this for ya, the CAC: Castaway Athletic Conference, beginning play in 2014

    Baylor
    Central Florida
    Cincinnati
    East Carolina
    Louisville
    Marshall
    Middle Tennessee
    Memphis State
    North Carolina State
    South Florida
    Southern Miss
    UNC-Charlotte

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