Comparison of Players: Lost, Gained, & Potentials

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I thought I’d take a look at who we’re losing and who we’ve gained (or potentially gain) and compare their tempo free stats. Yes I know the level of competition isn’t the same but I wanted to see how efficient they were against the competition they did play against and then compare them by position. I’ve included Josh Davis and Tarik Black as potentials because those are the only 2 transfers I’ve heard about. If anyone knows of specific players we’re after I’d like to look at their stats as well. It would be nice to see the tempo free stats for the incoming freshmen but I can’t find what I need and doubt I ever will.

Definition of terms:

eFG% – Effective FG% – factors in a player’s 3pt shooting by weighting it along with their 2FG.
Oeff – Offensive Efficiency
Poss% – The percent of team’s possessions the player had.
Poss/40 – The number of possessions the player would have if he played a 40 minute game.
FTRate – FTA/FGA

Turner vs. Wood

Turner Career

If you look at Turner you’ll see he’s no Woo. In fact he’s not even close to shooting the ball as well as Woo. Unless Turner has vastly improved during this redshirt year or he can play defense then there will be a net loss of Woo. Who would have ever thought that while watching Woo play? Turner definitely needs to reduce his turnovers.

Lee vs Purvis

Lee Career

I compared Lee to both Purvis and Brown even though Brown wasn’t a SG, I wanted to compare the offensive production not the AST/TO. NMJC isn’t very good at recording stats, minutes being the big issue, so I couldn’t compare per 40 minutes or how many possessions they had per 40 minutes. Lee was THE focal point of the Thunderbirds offense (26.8% of the team’s possessions went through him) and boy he loved to shoot the ball. If you compare Lee against Purvis there isn’t much difference between the two except for Free Throw shooting where Lee is vastly better than Purvis. There’s no way Lee will be leaned on as much as NMJC did and after you get about 20% of the team possessions most players actually get less efficient. At the very least I’d say he may not be as quick as Purvis but he’ll at least hit more of his free throws so I’d say this might be a breakeven just from a production standpoint without knowing anything about “chemistry issues”.

Josh Davis & Tarik Black vs Leslie & Howell

Davis Career

Everyone has heard Josh Davis has grown since he was at State. Well that could be debatable. Here are his physical stats from various sources:

2009: Rivals: 6’6” 185lbs
2009: Scout: 6-6” 210lbs
2009: NCSU Media Guide: 6’7” 205lbs
2012: Tulane Media Guide: 6’8” 215lbs

So take the whole growth thing with a grain of salt.

Looking at his season at State and his two at Tulane you’ll see he wasn’t that bad when he was in Raleigh (even with 10min/game) and he played his best last year at Tulane. He doesn’t shoot the ball very well, actually worse than Leslie, and I wouldn’t expect him to duplicate his scoring against better front courts while at State. Nor do I think he would get as many rebounds at this level but the things that really stick out to me are his efficiency with the ball, makes his free throws, and he has a nose for offensive rebounding. The free throws would be an improvement over both Leslie and Howell, plus Davis has a knack for getting to the line, and the offensive rebounding would be critical with the loss of Howell. Davis is deserving of 20-30 mpg game at this point but improved competition may reduce his time. Also he’s a tweener that doesn’t shoot from outside so where would he play and whose time would it eat into? I say Warren unless we go with a small, quick lineup with zero post presence.

Black Career

Tarik Black (6’9”, 262lbs, JR PF Memphis) is interesting because he only averaged between 20-25 minutes per game during his 3 years at Memphis and his Junior year was his worst year as far as efficiency goes. The biggest reason for the drop in efficiency was the severe drop in his Free Throw shooting. Now he wasn’t the greatest FT shooter to begin with as he averaged 59% his first two years and then plummeted to 45% his Junior year. He also didn’t keep up his 70% FG shooting and dropped to 60% FG. Basically he’d give State about 25 minutes per game and about 10 ppg, maybe, considering he’ll be facing better big men than he faced in CUSA. For being 6’9” he has absolutely no nose for rebounding and is a liability at the FT line and he gets sent there a lot. Either this guy is currently in the wrong system or he’s a bench player at the next level. He’s a role player and good at shooting the ball, would be interested in knowing where those shots come from, but that’s about it as far as I can see from stats. Black is definitely not starter material or deserving of more than 20-25mpg at this point. Since he has only 1 year left and State has the space I’d take him but I have a feeling he’s looking for more playing time and unless he improves I wouldn’t give him more time.

Basically what this boils down to is with the exception of Lee this team is going to take a step back offensively next year. I have no idea what the freshmen will do but anyone who relies on freshmen to carry the offensive load is going to be in for a major roller coaster ride. What this team needs to do is focus on “TEAM” and Defense. Defense will be critical and history has shown that Gottfried’s teams are average at best, they must be better than average. There’s still plenty of offseason left and anything could happen, just wanted to look at these additions objectively.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

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23 Responses to Comparison of Players: Lost, Gained, & Potentials

  1. cWOhLFrPAiCKs 04/11/2013 at 10:06 PM #

    Great post. Maybe a year with low expectations starting out is what this team needs.

  2. Wulfpack 04/11/2013 at 10:13 PM #

    Must improve on D for a chance at a good season. Great D creates easy offense. Ask Louisville.

  3. coach13 04/11/2013 at 10:15 PM #

    Not a stat guy. Stats can’t account for flow and team chemistry which could make previous stats useless IF the fit is right. I think our Offense will take a step back (came up with that without the math) but am hoping everyone will pick it up, develop some chemistry and flow. Who knows.

  4. JeremyH 04/11/2013 at 10:37 PM #

    thanks for doing this. remember that a certain portion of Purvis, Leslie’s O came off fast breaks. So if that style still holds, Lee and Turners numbers might be bolstered. And as great (but streaky) as Woo was outside the arc, he lacked in defense. So if Turner demonstrates a marked advantage over Woo in terms of defense, then its at least a wash.

    Not accounting for freshmen, which is tough to do, is a massive wildcard. I’m not sure when was the last time we had a guard that was speedy enough to create offense off the dribble, with regularity. That was supposed to be Harrow; maybe it will be Barber.

    The free throw stat is killer, we lost more than one game due to free throws.

  5. freshmanin83 04/11/2013 at 10:54 PM #

    Nice work up thanks.

  6. NOT A FAN OF BLUE 04/11/2013 at 11:12 PM #

    Great work, as usual.

    After obsessing for a week over D. Lee’s stats, I am glad to have him. He is physical; he likes to rebound; he makes his frappin’ free throws; and he scores like A.I.
    He could be the best off-season addition.

    Go Pack

  7. highstick 04/11/2013 at 11:53 PM #

    On psper, it will be what it will be!

  8. vtpackfan 04/12/2013 at 8:46 AM #

    I’m just glad that Lee came aboard this year and that Turner will be eligible to play. The “Potential’s” would add depth and experience. Alex Johnson was a Post Grad that was practically handed to us by his old AAU coach who happened to live in Raleigh. Last years late signing period was a waste of time. Until I see that the staff can effectively recruit in tumultuous late signing period than I’ll just expect that what we see now on paper is what we’ll see in the Fall. JV and Jevoni Robinson time, whoopee!

  9. Texpack 04/12/2013 at 9:15 AM #

    “Unless Turner has vastly improved during this redshirt year or he can play defense then there will be a net loss of Woo. Who would have ever thought that while watching Woo play?”

    ME. Shooters like Scott Wood don’t come along very often. He was a step slow defensively and that never got better. How many times during his career did he provide a one man spurt at a critical point in the game. He would have really benefited from playing all four years under Gott.

    Absolutely spot on with the “TEAM” comment. Attitude, hustle, grit, effort, or whatever you want to call it will establish the ceiling for next year’s team. Tyler Lewis is the perfect leader and tone setter for this group.

  10. Tau837 04/12/2013 at 10:09 AM #

    Wood was a far better offensive player than Turner was at LSU. Turner was a moderately better defensive player, but still not a strong defensive player. Here are their offensive and defensive ratings from their last seasons:

    Wood 2012-13: 133.9 OR, 108.3 DR
    Turner 2011-12: 96.4 OR, 100.5 DR

    Not only is that a huge gap in offensive rating, it does not account for how Wood opened things up for other offensive players. It seems very doubtful that Turner will have that same ability to draw defensive attention.

    Now, that is comparing a senior to a sophomore, and those ratings are certainly influenced by scheme and coaching. So Turner could certainly narrow the gap on offense. It seems doubtful that he will improve on defense under Gott based on what we’ve seen so far from his two years at State, and, in fact, his defensive rating could easily slip.

    Altogether, it seems very unlikely that Turner will step in and provide the same type of net value that Wood did for this team, and it probably won’t be close. But don’t get me wrong, I’m still very glad to have Turner.

    It’s just that Wood has long been extremely underrated around here (and everywhere for that matter).

  11. haze 04/12/2013 at 12:28 PM #

    Good analysis.

    Key point is that we at least HAVE Lee & Turner in the fold. There will be scholarship players… woohoo!

    Down low, not so clear. We very much need to close the deal on Davis or luck into something else.

    In any case, we will be a much different team than last year; worse on O and a pure unknown on D. It will be a telling year for Gott, vis-a-vis ability to emphasize D, vary the O and develop kids quickly.

  12. packalum44 04/12/2013 at 12:49 PM #

    This team, mostly due to the addition of Anya and replacement of the one-dimensional Wood with a tall athletic guard, has the potential to have more synergy. Logic dictates that based on paper, we take a big hit. That’s true. But it is hard to predict how the team will come together – synergy.

    We severely lacked a defensive and rebounding post presence, in addition to be exploited off the bounce like clockwork. Bad combination.

    The more feeble mind would become defensive towards the later claim and point to Howell’s statistics as objective support. Howell grabbed lots of rebounds, but never consistently dominated games against teams with top 25 post interior players. He was over matched as our 5 and abused instantly when a big man won position. He would have been a great compliment to a true center, but 6’7″ with no hops is not someone you want as your best rebounder. Also he was unable to alter shots or deter dribble penetration ala a Jeff Withey, which are qualities not measured.

    Moreover, similar to a Erik Green at VA Tech or Joe Harris at UVA, when a pretty good scorer is on a team with no scoring options, the stats are inflated. Our other players did not have optimal rebounding skills or desire/heart. There were lots of balls to fight for, just like there were lots of shots for Joe Harris/Erik Green to take.

    That tip in by Miami….likely doesn’t happen against Anya. Howell got pushed around by the true bigs.

    Anya and Turner are important pieces. They have the ability to upgrade those respective positions defensively.

    Lewis’s smarts, passing, and handles will equate into few turnovers. Our turnover ratio was suboptimal given our talent and athletic ability, due to Zo’s boneheaded plays and CJ’s cognitive dissonance between what he thought his handles were (Allen Iverson) to what they were in reality.

    Can Lewis continue to improve defensively? He improved alot throughout the limited minutes he played. Like all white players there is a stigma of him being slow, but he’s actually much quicker than Alex Johnson. He’s quicker than CJ Williams and Zo, both of whom were much taller, but point is he has ability to be adequate and not be a HUGE liability such as Wood, who simply didn’t have any torque whatsoever.

    Like em’ or not, those are my disorganized 2 cents.

  13. vtpackfan 04/12/2013 at 12:59 PM #

    Howell might not have gotten pushed around late in games if we didn’t have to play nearly 40 minutes every three days.

    Turner stats as a Soph compared to Woods are screwed. Look at Woods overall offense/defense stats as a Fr and So playing for lousy teams under a HC that were about to get fired. Guess what situation Turner was under.

  14. 1.21 Jigawatts 04/12/2013 at 2:35 PM #

    “Turner stats as a Soph compared to Woods are screwed. Look at Woods overall offense/defense stats as a Fr and So playing for lousy teams under a HC that were about to get fired. Guess what situation Turner was under.”

    The comparison of the players is not to say look at this guy he sucks compared to the guy who left who is 2 years older and was in the system for 2 years. The comparison is to show that on paper there is a huge gap in offensive output between the 2 players when one is leaving and the other is stepping into the vacated role. The analysis is not that Turner can’t have a senior year equal or better than Wood’s senior year, rather to show that Wood was a senior who (as one dimensional as he was) produced offensively and did so with high efficiency…Turner did neither the last year he played. He may flourish under Gott. He may accel playing in the ACC. He may have a better all around game than Wood which could make the team better. Problem is all of those are unknowns until they roll the ball out next season.

    I’ll admit I have Charlie Brown Syndrome and fall for the next year will be better (enter your reason here) every year. I won’t next year. This will be a different team with young and/or new players everywhere. On top of it, from a statistical POV, this team will be much weaker offensively. After seeing a history of Gottfried’s teams being average at best defensively then there is nothing to indicate that will change next year. They will have to show me first before I will believe it.

  15. NCSU84 04/12/2013 at 3:02 PM #

    These comparisons may not mean a whole lot and is much like comparing apples to oranges. The level of competition that the new crop of talent will face in the ACC (which now includes Syracuse and Louisville) will be much different from anything they have experienced. Purvis and Wood probably would have been All-Americans if they played with the level of competition the new crowd competed against. I’m not sure if the new guys would have the same stats if they had played in the ACC. Therefore, these are almost meaningless comparisons.

  16. 1.21 Jigawatts 04/12/2013 at 7:23 PM #

    ^Hence why I said this in the second line of the article.

    “Yes I know the level of competition isn’t the same but I wanted to see how efficient they were against the competition they did play against and then compare them by position.”

  17. Tau837 04/12/2013 at 7:27 PM #

    vtpackfan said: “Turner stats as a Soph compared to Woods are screwed. Look at Woods overall offense/defense stats as a Fr and So playing for lousy teams under a HC that were about to get fired. Guess what situation Turner was under.”

    Perhaps you should look at the stats before you make a post like this.

    Wood, in 2010-2011 as a sophomore playing for a lousy team under a HC who was about to get fired, had a 125.7 offensive rating. And, again, that does not account for how he opened up the floor for other players. He had a 108.3 defensive rating.

    Turner, in 2011-2012 as a sophomore playing for a lousy team under a HC who was about to get fired, had a 96.4 offensive rating and 100.5 defensive rating. He also did not open up the floor for his teammates in the same way that Wood did.

    This changes zero about my post that you are referencing. Wood was a major net positive as a sophomore. Turner wasn’t.

    Like I said, I’m glad to have Turner. But, again, Wood is criminally underrated on this board.

  18. phillypacker 04/12/2013 at 8:17 PM #

    My take is that it can only be an Apple/Oranges comparison to match up last year vs next year. (Obviously) So we are freshman and transfer heavy. Next year we have:

    some combination of

    Barber
    Lewis
    Lee
    at the 1-2

    Turner at the 2-3

    TJWarren at the 3-4

    Anya
    Washington at the 4-5

    (Plus, we hope another talented big)

    If you compare talent/potential at the same point in their career,

    As freshmen (per Packpride/Scout)
    Zo ***** (4th SG/PG)
    Wood *** (30th SG)
    Howell **** (16th PF)
    Leslie ***** (4th PF)
    Lewis **** (7th PG)
    Purvis ***** (6th SG)
    Warren **** (6th SF)

    As freshmen (per Packpride/Scout)
    TJ Warren **** (6th SF)
    Tyler Lewis **** (7th PG)
    Cat Barber ***** (4th PG)
    Beejay Anya **** (7th C)
    K Washington **** (12th C)
    Ralston Turner *** (35th SG)
    Desmond Lee (NR)

    Plus, the addition of another big.

    If you factor in that Leslie and Purvis struggled with productivity, consistency, team offense/defense, the incoming group looks stronger across the board than last year’s rotation. Turner and Lee also appear to have been pretty underrated.

    While there is no certainty, we can meaningfully hope that team chemistry will be much better with this group. In 2014, with the Martin twins coming in, we are going to be very strong 1-7 or even 1-9 if Turner and Lee pan out to be what we hope.

    On the 2013-2014 team we will have 1 five-star and 4 four-star guys, including at least 3 McDonald’s All-Americans. In 2014-2015, we would mostly likely have at least 1 five star and at least six four-stars plus Lee and Turner. That is if Gott et all do not sign anybody else in next year’s class, which they certainly will.

    We should have less drama and better synergy. This assumes no mass exodus this year or the next.

    We need to plan to enjoy what on paper is a talented team which is also younger. Freshmen will screw up, but playing freshmen is becoming more the rule than the exception with so many guys going pro early.

    I also know that “stah’s” are not anything concrete, but they do tend to show a perception of potential. When you look at our four and five stars, except for Leslie and Purvis, predications have held fairly true.

    Expectations should be low for this group, even though they have four veterans (Warren, Lee, Turner, Lewis) in the starting rotation of 6-7 guys. Turner and Lee have both had two years of college experience, regardless of the level of competition.

    Per scout, we have had the 5th and 9th best recruiting classes in the last two years. Anya is 6’8″ 255-270. Reggie Johnson only outweighs him by about 20 pounds!

    On paper, there is a lot of reason for hope. Richard Howell became a much better ball player under Gott et al. Now we get to see what they can do with Anya and Washington over four years.

    We also get to find out if Gott can coach a team made up more or less of his guys. So hey, let’s enjoy what looks like a steady upward path.

  19. 13OT 04/12/2013 at 8:36 PM #

    I feel a little better about next season than I did a few weeks ago. Maybe we need less athletic and more team-oriented players than the last group we had for the past two seasons. Scott Wood, who seems to be the most-criticized player we had outside of C. J. Leslie, was probably our bellwether player in that when he scored a lot, we seldom lost, so I don’t feel so bad that he always started and played a lot of minutes. Having him on the floor always threatened the opposition, and I don’t see anyone we’ll have next season who will do that.

    I don’t know whether Gottfried is a good defensive coach or not, but with players like Leslie and to some degree like Brown and Purvis, it was beyond obvious that these guys were more about the NBA than the team. And nobody I know has gone to the NBA based on their defensive prowess, unless they were 7-footers. Cody Zeller may think he’s going to be a lottery pick, and he might be, but he’s going to get pounded by taller players who’ll jump a foot or more above him. One more year at IU would have meant mucho more $$ for him.

    Mason Plumlee knew that staying for his senior year would make a difference, and it will. It’s too bad that Leslie didn’t see this and connect the dots.

    I bet Scott Wood comes closer to making an NBA roster than Leslie. Wood is really good at one thing, but Leslie believes he’s good at everything when he’s not good at much of anything.

  20. Tau837 04/12/2013 at 10:32 PM #

    packalum44 said: “Lewis’s smarts, passing, and handles will equate into few turnovers.”

    Lewis had the third highest turnover percentage (17.4) among the rotation players last season, nearly as bad as Leslie’s (17.9). Having said that, he was a freshman, and it seems reasonable to think he can improve going forward.

    packalum44 said: “Can Lewis continue to improve defensively? …point is he has ability to be adequate and not be a HUGE liability such as Wood”

    Wood’s defensive rating was better in every year of his career than Lewis’s was last year.

  21. TMD11 04/13/2013 at 10:48 AM #

    The stats are great…would still prefer many players over a Scott Wood (foul shooting great, but far too inconsistent from the field, and defensive liability) who often rushed shots at the wrong time and seemed to disrupt chemistry and flow at times too.
    Team chemistry is a powerful catalyst in on court success, and we struggled with that mightily this past year.
    Warren is a tremendous scorer, Lewis a strong floor general with O-skills who will also improve Anya and Washington’s offensive opportunities , Barber a very potent offensive force as well.
    Turner and Lee both bring firepower an should fit in well creating a strong perimeter oriented team while Anya and Washington learn/grow, AND offering the ability to turn up the ‘D’ this year.

  22. Tyler_Durden 09/09/2013 at 11:23 AM #

    This is going to be a rough year. Keeping everyone around when it’s over will be a plus.

    EDIT: Not kowtowing to one player will help too.

  23. VaWolf82 09/09/2013 at 4:08 PM #

    The Charlie Brown Syndrome can be overcome. Just look at BJD or me. The key is not to invest emotionally until you see something concrete.

    Prepare for the worst and all surprises will be pleasant.

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