Via the Washington Times, here is the current seeding situation the Wolfpack finds itself in for next week’s ACC Tourney:
Currently, NC STATE sits at 16-12 overall, with a 6-9 conference record
- Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over Miami; the Wolfpack would lose all tiebreakers to both Maryland (0-1 head-to-head) and Virginia Tech (0-1 head-to-head)
- Will be the No. 10 seed with a loss to Miami
And to review the schedule for the first two days of the tournament:
No. 8 vs. No. 9, 12 pm
No. 5 vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 pm
No. 7 vs. No. 10, 7 pm
No. 6 vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 pm
- Maryland will be the No. 7 seed with a victory at Virginia OR a Virginia Tech loss to Florida State.
- Maryland will be the No. 8 seed with a loss at Virginia AND a Virginia Tech victory against Florida State.
- Virginia Tech will be the No. 7 seed with a victory over Florida State AND a Maryland loss at Virginia.
- Virginia Tech will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to Florida State OR a Maryland victory at Virginia.
- Miami Will be the No. 9 seed with a victory over NCSU.
- Miami would be the No. 10 see with a loss to the Wolfpack.
And if State wins Thursday, Friday Matchups:
No. 1 vs. 8-9 winner, 12 pm
No. 4 vs. 5-12 winner, 2:30 pm
No. 2 vs 7-10 winner, 7 pm
No. 3 vs. 6-11 winner, 9:30 pm
Here are some of the second round possibilities:
- Wake Forest will be the No. 2 seed with a win over Clemson and a Duke loss to North Carolina.
- Duke will be the top seed with a win at North Carolina and a Wake Forest win over Clemson.
- UNC will be the top seed if they beat Duke.
The following is some additional commentary and perspective:
- NC State is locked into a first round game against wither Virginia Tech or Maryland.
- State could finished tied with VPI and Maryland in the standings with everyone at 7-9 if VPI loses to FSU and MD loses to UVa and we beat Miam. But, among that group, we are 0-2, while VT is 1-1 and MD is 2-0. Maryland would be #7, VT #8 and NC State #9. We would play VPI in the first round.
- Basically, VPI and Maryland are battling for 7/8 with Maryland owning the tiebreak should they tie; NC State and Miami are playing for 9/10. Those 4 play each other on Thursday in the ACCT, except we cant play Miami no matter what.
- Best guess: (a) beat Miami, play VPI in the 8/9 game, or (b) lose to Miami, play MD in the 7/10 game.
- With Miami losing last night, NC State vs Miami becomes a true standings game – loser is locked into the 10th position. Finishing 10th is almost better than 9th, because the 8/9 winner will be matched against UNC on Friday, while the 7/10 winneer will face Duke. We match much better with Duke than UNC. I think MD will finish 7th.
- Having said that, I hope we beat Miami to get 7 ACC wins and finish 9th. It is much better to finish 9th, even if that means facing UNC on Friday because:
(1) 7 ACC wins would lock up a NIT bid most likely
(2) 7 ACC wins would be more than Herb Sendek ever got until his 6th year
(3) Going from 4 to 7 ACC wins is a very nice improvement
(4) 7 ACC wins doesn’t make us a bubble team. The ONLY way to make the NCAAT is to win the ACCT. I think its better to play UNC on Day 2 than Day 4 to do that.
- I’d probably rather play Maryland than VPI on Friday (I think VPI is better), but we have shown we can beat VPI.
- Unless we suddenly get the best officiated game in the history of our program, I think the only way we win the ACCT is if someone else beats the Holes for us. Six teams in the league are probably capable of beating them – MD, BC, Miami, Wake, VPI, FSU – as their Achilles’ heel is an athletic, high-scoring point or combo guard. That’s what beats UNC. We don’t have that, and neither does Duke or Clemson. I think UNC is 80% likely to win the ACCT, but if they lose I expect it will be to FSU in the semis.