Note: If you are somewhat new to SFN and have recently become a reader because of our feature in the NC State Alumni Magazine then please don’t hesitate to click here for somewhat of an opening message.
If you were to click on the “Archives” tab just above the headline to this entry then you would see a host of “tags” and “categories” that can more easily direct you to to past entries here at SFN.
One of the categories that you can browse is titled “On the Record” (Click here to browse) that we sometimes shorten to “OTR”. OTRs are just one place where we go “On the Record” with a prediction &/or expectation and expressly ask you to also log your take on the topic.
NC State’s regular season is just under 50% complete - 14 out of conference games are behind us and 16 conference game remain. A better time therefore could not exist to go ‘On the Record’ and share predictions for NC State’s 2007-2008 ACC Basketball record.
‘At the turn’ the Wolfpack sits 11-3 with an RPI of #59 after playing the 158th toughest schedule in America.
(Please note: we have not played the 158th toughest out of conference schedule in America as many teams have already started conference play. Addtitionall, State’s SOS would have been somewhere in the 70s if it weren’t for our last two games against PC and NCCU. While still producing an OOC SOS SIGNIFICANTLY more acceptable than our previous regime, Coach Lowe’s staff could do themselves a favor by just slightly improving a couple of our cupcakes as the difference between the actual strength of #320 and number #200 is much less significant than the actual impact on our rankings of playing #320 and #200.)
Before the season began I projected that an 11-3 OOC record was the most likely scenario for the Wolfpack heading into ACC play. Of course, had you told me that the Pack would have beaten Villanova, Davidson, Seton Hall and Cincinnati while telling me nothing else I would have been ecstatic and presumed we would be 13-1 at this time. UNO and ECU threw a wrench in those plans.
The impact of the UNO and ECU losses on our season are not to be dismissed yet. As you will see in a moment, due to the strength of our ACC schedule, if the Wolfpack had actually achieved that 13-1 OOC record then we could have skated to an NCAA Tournament berth with a 7-9 ACC record and a 20-10 overall record with little problem.
Heading into ACC play I suggest that you start your analysis by clicking here to give yourself a more clear idea of just how difficult the Wolfpack’s conference slate is this season.
The rest of the ACC’s RPI is currently listed as follows:
(2) UNC-CH
(17) Duke
(36) Florida State
(46) Clemson
(48) Miami
(57) Wake Forest
(73) Virginia
(91) Georgia Tech
(102) Virginia Tech
(110) Boston College
(137) Maryland
In summary, NC State plays:
* NINE games against ACC opponents currently ranked in the RPI’s Top 50.* ELEVEN games against the ACC’s six highest rated teams in the RPI.* only ONE game against the worst rated team in the league, and that is on the road...and here is the killer –
* only FOUR games of a mathematically possible EIGHT match-ups against the lowest rated four teams in the league.
Adjusting for the fact that NC State cannot play ourselves, this means that we effectively play every team in the top 45% of the league for the MAXIMUM amount of games possible while playing every team in the bottom 36% of the league for the MINIMUM amount of games possible.
I’ve heard/seen a lot of people make uneducated projections about the minimum standards needed to get NC State into the NCAA Tournament this season. But, as usually goes with the internet, you get a lot of their opinion without a lot of fact or rational thought behind that fact.
Allow me to propose that if NC State were to achieve an 8-8 ACC record against this difficult of a conference schedule (while the ACC is ranked as one of the best leagues in America this season) that there is no way in hell that a 19-11 Wolfpack squad who would easily be ranked in the RPI’s Top 35-40 would fail to make the NCAA Tournament (unless we lost by 25+ in a Thursday game in the ACC Tournament and was on a painful losing streak at the end of the year).
With all of that said, accounting for the fact the NC State’s already weak and inexperienced backcourt has been impacted by the season-ending injury to our starting point guard in tandem with injuries to our two best shooters (Courtney Fells and Dennis Horner)…I am predicting a most-likely scenario of a 6-10 record for this year’s Wolfpack and an NIT bid with a stretch possibility of an 8-8 record and an NCAA Tournament bid. If the Wolfpack’s record were to fall outside of either side of this 6 to 8 win range then my disappointment or happiness would be greatly enhanced.
To note, the injuries - not just to Degand but the potential residual/lingering impact to Horner and Fells - definitely impacted my prediction. Had Degand remained healthy I would logged an 8-8 expectation which would have presented a strong three game (60%) improvement from last season.
We’d love to see what you think in our comments section…but, we are going to ask you to limit your comments to focusing very much on the topic as in the future we are not going to want to click on this entry and ready random conversations. (So, don’t be surprised if some of your off-topic comments disappear).
8-8, and I am probably being too generous.
7-9
I’m thinking we get out to a slow start with our road games and we finish strong….8-8
I know that sounded bad before the year started, but now after seeing this team to this point that would be a huge get for the team
Are you people watching the same team as I am? I hate it like hell but I see us at 5-11 on the NIT bubble.
16-0 or maybe 15-1 since we could still lose one more game according to Gavin. The power of positive thinking!
unpredictable!
6-10 and needing a run in the ACC Tourney to qualify for the Dance.
9-7. We play to the level of our competition.
6-10.
there is absolutely no way in hell to even dream of an educated guess at this. It would not surprise me to finish ANYWHERE from winless to undefeated in the ACC. However if I was forced to guess… I am (for some unforeseen reason) feeling incredibly optimistic and am gonna say 10-6.
10-6
the first half is gonna be rough, and we might only go 3-5 through those first 8 (road games at unx, clemson, and duke) but I see the boys continuing to gel and finishing off with a decent run at the RIGHT TIME of year.
The talent WILL WIN OUT!
BTW- some of you need to learn what it means to be a FAN.
6-10 seems most likely.
We should put up another “predict our ACC” record thread after Carolina and then again after Clemson and see if the numbers shift dramatically one way or the other. For right now I’m going to go with spanky and say that we have no clue what we’re gonna end up with. I’m going to say 9-7 as my official guess, but after Carolina/Clemson we’ll see how that changes.
If the team that showed up against PC/ECU/NO/NCCU shows up… 2-14.
If the team that showed up against Seton Hall/Villanova/Cincey shows up… 10-6
If the team that showed up during our run in the ACC tournament… Gavin might have a chance to be right after all.
11-5
7-9
I agree that its very hard to tell, but I’d have to guess 9-7. Sounds kind of like a cop out answer here, but it may depend a good bit on how long we are without Fells. BTW, anyone heard more than “sprained ankle”?
7-9 but hopefully better.
i predict it will wobble, it will drag it’s bottom, and then it will sprint to a spectacular finish.
8-8
2 games we blow-out the other team (2-0)
2 games we are blown out by the other team (0-2)
12 Nail Biters that we Split(6-6)
I like the idea of 8-8; I’d say better if we didn’t play 6 against the top 3 teams. The bottom 2/3 of the conference has looked good at times, and laid up some real stinkers as well. I do think we’ll manage a win out of those matchups with the top 3 teams, probably Clemson who has managed to be consistent with their history- start strong then look like crap. Duke can possibly be had if they aren’t hitting from the perimeter (sound familiar?)
I actually like the idea of us starting with such a difficult schedule– with so many young players, it can’t get MORE difficult as the season progresses. While we may take our lumps early, this should help acclimate JJ and the PGs to the rigors of ACC play in a hurry.
I won’t be shocked if its 6-10 or 12-4 depending on injuries and breaks, I can’t be confident in anything they’ve done to this point. I certainly reserve the right to change my mind after Saturday, too.
Here goes anyhow.
There are a lot of winnable games. But they have played down to competition, until they get over that flaw they are average. So I expect they will be fairly close to middle of the road.
UNC is probably too solid, but Duke and Clemson have flaws that will give us a chance to stay close. Miami and FSU are over-rated, I’ve seen both play. BC and UVa have no answers inside, but have solid PGs. Wake, VT, Md and GT have more serious flaws than we do. I expect we find a way to steal two from among UNC, Duke, and Clem (2-4), split FSU (1-1), sweep Wake (2-0), and go 4-2 amongst the rest (BC, Uva, VT, GT, UMD, Miami). 9-7.
13-3 no question.
at UNC = loss
at Clemson= loss
Miami= win
Georgia Tech= win
at FSU= loss
at Duke= loss
Wake= win
VT= win
at Maryland= loss
at BC= loss
Clemson= win
North Carolina= loss
at Virginia= loss
FSU= win
Duke= loss
at Wake= win
maybe we get lucky and sweep FSU and Miami and make it a respectable 8-8, but my moneys’ on 7-9 or maybe worse.
SFN: I think this a great projection. I have highlighted the road games at Maryland and at Boston College. If, for the most part all other things generally hold serve, then those two games could determine the season. Both of those teams have relatively bad RPIs and therefore losses to them would hurt a little more. However, since both of those games are on the road, then wins against them have a juiced impact on our RPI. So, I think that we are on to something here; I also think that the road game at Virginia may fall into the same bucket.
There is really no way to know. We have been an enigma for sure. And I’m not so sold on Clemson. It’ll be same ole, same ole for the Tigers. They put all of their eggs into UNC and came up short once again, then lost to Charlotte at home. So let’s not get carried away with the Tigers being so great just yet.
I think we will lay a whole lot of eggs, but win a few big ones to ease our pain. I think we have another great showing in the tourney that will increase our NCAA tourney chances.
Who knows? I guess if I had to guess…6-10 and another trip to the tourney finals.
Such is the life of a Wolfpack fan.
7-9. I like to think that’s a pretty reasonable and conservative estimate, but I’m scared to think how wrong it might be.
7-9
Wow - I didn’t think my 5-11 would look like such an outlier.
But I have no reason to pick us in more than 5 games on the schedule.
I mean, 15-1. Otherwise, my career as a psychic is shot.
Sincerely,
Gavin Grant
Given no further injuries, I’ll also go for 8-8.
I figured that talent wise we were five wins bettter this year overall than last year. I’m hard-headed so I’m gonna stick with that overall prediction. That means that we are gonna go 9-7 in the conference.
7-9…I think we’ll get at least one of the four against Carolina or Duke. Faith in the Red Blazer.
A lot of people are shooting for 8-8. I think that college basketball’s most valued players are guards and expecially point guards. We are lacking at this position currently and if things don’t change we are going to be in trouble.
That being said 8-8 is a lofty goal that we don’t reach.
I think 6-10. I wish I could be more optimistic.
9-7
9-8 Sidney gets so pissed off he make them play one of the games twice.
4-12. I don’t know where we are going to get four wins…but that’s my pick. Even in the worst years of Les, we managed to get two or three wins. We’re better than that…so…4-12.
9-7
10-6
9-7 +/-1. We played much better against Davidson/Cinncinati/Seton Hall than in the last three games. Hopefully we get some of that back.
I am going to say 9-7, with my only disclaimer being that it would be more w’s, but I cannot shake the image of that stinker at MSU. I am afraid that against truly top 10 competition, if we get too far behind, we just may pack it in. I am encouraged, however, that we have struggled early through the lighter competition. Somehow, I think that will make us better in close games against the lesser teams of the ACC.
6-10. Haven’t seen much improvement in the areas that were exposed during the Michigan State game. This team still: shoots poorly from 3-point range, is weak at point guard, doesn’t block out on the boards, is slow on defense, and lacks intensity. Hope I am wrong but it’s difficult to be optimistic looking at how many tough opponents the Pack plays in the first half of the ACC schedule.
4-12 and another spirited run in the acc tourney which sends us right back to the NIT;s and the recruiting trail. Sid needs to find an outside threat.
Im also really worried right now that Costmer may go pro. I cant believe how good he has been, and his conditioning has been nothing short of spectacular. the man is a physical specimen. hes a lottery pick any way you cut it. state fans are folly to think he will stay another yr
6-10 or 7-9. I can’t think of a year where we have a wider range of possibilities but my guess is we end up being hampered by guard play and outside shooting all year. I could see anything from 4-12 to about 10-6 being legimately possible.
10-6
Javi and MJ will be three times the guards they are now by the end of January. And that is six times the guards they were about 4 weeks ago.
9-7
looks like 5 and 3 at home—losses from the pool of unc, duke, clemson, miami, and virginia—should wins—wake, umd, and vpi—probably 2 and 7 at best on the road—suprise one of the 5 from the pool of potential home losses and get one of the should wins at home on the road as well—7 and 9 as the end result—win two tournament games and sneak in as a 10 seed in the middle of nowhere on a thurday afternoon—go pack
Realsitically, we’re limping into ACC play. I hope we can get some momentum, but from what I’ve seen 8-8 will be a success. I want to say we’ll win more, but I just haven’t seen it from this team… yet.
If I were setting an over/under line for ACC wins, it would be 6.5. Since I am a raging pessimist, I’ll vote 6-10.
5-11.
9-7 regular season, but it may be like the football season (i.e. BAD at the start)
2-1 ACC Tournament.
2-1 NCAA Tournament, with second round win over Arizona State (cuz the NCAA is vindictive like that).
11-5
6-10 — Assuming Fells is out no more than UNC-Ch and Clemson
5-11 (or worse) if Fells is out much longer or there are additional significant injuries
It was a high ankle sprain, right? It would have been better if he had broken it.
And I do blame the extremely bizarre pre-conference schedule for the unenthusiastic and highly uncertain view of where we stand right now.
Primacyone, I’m with you. Javi and MJ are both improving every game. Although, I don’t really mind the pessimism by most, I think it is a little unfounded. No, we haven’t played great offensively, but defensively, we’ve played well. Also, we are on a 7 game WIN streak. I’d rather play subpar and win, than play great and lose.
Again, 10-6.
It’s tough to decide between 8-8 and 9-7. I think that the team will step up its play and that a lot of the experimentation is going to trickle to a stop.
This thread should be re-visited in March when all is said and done.
I’m pretty sure ( >95%) that Fells just had a low ankle sprain. I think Horner had the dreaded high ankle sprain.
ORIGINAL ENTRY UPDATED WITH A LOT OF NEW INFO
Average: 5-11
Best Case (95%): 8-8
Worst Case (5%): 3-13
Additionally, check out wbnation’s comments about 22 comments from the top that was logged Jan 11th, 2008 at 4:20 am.
I’ve added some comments there.
” I don’t really mind the pessimism by most, I think it is a little unfounded.”
LOL! Unfounded?
Where have you been for the past 20 years? Seriously.
7-9
We could go any where from 6-10 to 11-5. To reach 11-5 Costner has to return to last years form and we have to start hitting alot more outside shots. I think our talent and experience gets us 6 wins. I think Sid’s coaching and passion gets us to 8-8 or 9-7. Then we win 2 ACC tourney games and end up a 6 or 7 seed in the dance.
I’m still sticking with 8-8. I do think some of the road games versus the bottom feeders are hugely important.
Duke, UNC and Clemson (will be lucky to win more than 1 game)
That means we would have to go 7-3 versus the other 10 games. Can not have a let down and HAVE to win all other home games and sweep Wake.
By the way….are all of you taking the time to click on our Ads to help support us?
Much appreciated. Thanks
Backing up GF in Coma, I think the motto of every State fan should be: It can always get worse (and usually does).
I clicked on an ad, and learned that you can get ESPN GamePlan in Mexico. That’s damned interesting.
^^^^Where have you been for the past 20 years? Seriously.
I guess in a coma…with guess who??
The last twenty years has little to do with this year, IMO.
As far as NCAA tournament projections go, a good note is that as top-heavy as the early schedule is, the team probably couldn’t help but have a favorable record in their last 10 games if they were to finish 8-8. So I would think an 8-8 record would necessarily imply the team is not limping into the postseason.
I clicked on an ad, and learned that you can get ESPN GamePlan in Mexico. That’s damned interesting.
Yes, but you’d get tired of hearing that guy going “gooooooooooooallllllll” all game. I kid, I kid.
7-9, and out of the ACCT on Saturday. Final Four in the NIT
At least we haven’t dropped to the standards of St Louis … yet.
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaab/recap?gid=200801100227
Wow! From the article above, “We have some issues in terms of our offensive proficiency,” Majerus said
That’s O-ffensive profiency, and I would say he is correct!
Putting on my SFN sysadmin hat for a second…
When the guys here ask you to click on an ad, what they are basically asking you to do is to take a second and help defray the cost of running the blog. The server, Internet bandwidth and ongoing support all cost money obviously, and until recently, it’s been coming straight out of someone’s pocket. They aren’t complaining, mind you.
Still, you can help out a little, at no cost to you save for a minute or two of your time. For the quality of information and the great discussions that come from this site, that’s not too much to ask IMHO. Clicking an ad once in a while helps keep the site going, especially as its popularity ramps up thanks to the Alumni Magazine and word of mouth (SFN itself doesn’t advertise.)
Just some stuff for y’all to consider.
hate to do it but 7-9, 6-10 unless somehow they get some strong guard play and grant, fells and Mccauley catch fire
Apparently, Lowe said the lineup of Hickson, Costner, and McCauley ain’t happening. (source: S6)
I can’t help but wonder why one wouldn’t want the best players on the team all on the court at the same time…
(I, for one, am clicking an ad each visit)
at UNC = Loss
at Clemson= Win
Miami= Win
Georgia Tech= Win
at FSU= Loss
at Duke= Loss
Wake= Win
VT= Win
at Maryland= Loss
at BC= Win
Clemson= Win
North Carolina= Win
at Virginia= Win
FSU= Loss
Duke= Win
at Wake= Loss
(10-6) WHY???
Point Guard: So far this season point guard has been a weak link to our offensive production. As the season progresses, while still a weak link, point guard play will improve. Most of the improvement will come from experience and confidence growth through that experience. With the increased confidence will come point guards being more comfortable pushing tempo, calling their own plays, more dribble penetration, less turnovers (no more second guessing themselves), and more aggression toward looking for their own offense.
Coach Lowe: I don’t think we’ve even begun to see all of the things he’s implemented with this team. Remember that we still have some “junk defenses” in our pocket to throw out at other teams. Coach Lowe has done his best to keep his magic tricks a secret by not showing them to his audience more than once. You will see him use some tricks when they are needed and most of the time they will have a positive effect.
Chemistry: The team is becoming…a team. They are learning how to play with one another, learning how to trust one another, and defining roles. As the season progresses they will have a better idea of what is expected from their teammates as well as from themselves. With this…there will be a growing comfort level and a drastic improvement in performance.
(10-6) may be a little overly optimistic, as I can see us finishing anywhere from (6-10) to (13-3). Regardless of our overall record…I see us making the NCAA tournament by winning the ACC tournament. We will be one of the top three teams in the conference by the end of the year and we will have more to play for than the other two (Tarholes and Dookies).
Coach Lowe has done his best to keep his magic tricks a secret by not showing them to his audience more than once.
This angle is tired and false. Watching our putrid offense, (lowest scoring team in the ACC, btw) what makes one think we’re sandbagging anything. We’re struggling to earn the points we do score, I seriously doubt we have any secret weapons in our arsenal.
Re: OOC Schedule - Based on Lowe’s comments before the ECU game, he didn’t have much to do with scheduling at least some, if not all of the OOC games. I wonder who did that! (&*$$%%^#@#@^&* LF!
While the Pack has trouble scoring sometimes, the D has become a force to deal with, especially if everyone is healthy. And I think that PG play will improve as the season wears on. I could see 12-4 happening if the team keeps progressing and gets a couple of breaks (not in bones!). 8-8 seems reasonable. I would be very dissappointed at 6-10.
I’m with old13. I am quite optimistic that they will continue to improve. Not to mention that during some of the interviews the players and even Coach Lowe gave me the impression that they were not taking these past 3 games very seriously. I’m hoping the mentality now becomes a very serious “lets get down to business” type of mindset. If this is the indeed the case I can foresee continued improvement and a record above .500 in the ACC. If not it will be a long, long season.
In other news on the way to Dabney (where I am now) I saw Fells coming across the brickyard and he had absolutely zero limp…
^ Spanky, you would have been a blog hero if you had asked him his status and gotten back here with it.
I joke with my co-workers that a 2-14 ACC record is in the offing and Lowe will get run out of town.
My gut tells me 2-6 in the first half, but 6-2 in the second. There is talent here, but it’s going to take the team deciding that it is tired of getting beaten by equal, or even inferior, teams to get it together.
Actually based on our current injuries and the schedule and looking at the conf as a whole I think 8-8 is reasonable. Outside of UNC, Duke and until recently Clemson the rest of the league is not that great. My big fear is that our MO of not being consistent outside and teams packing it in against our bigs will result is a losing ACC record. If we can hit jumpers from the outside this team can finish 8-8.
I like wbnation’s picks, too.
However, I’m more pessimistic and wouldn’t be surprised if the team dropped the second Clemson game, the Georgia Tech game and maybe even the Miami game to go 4-12.
This team has showed absolutely no signs of improvement.
If anything, they have regressed.
Will this team finish with more conference