Being Competitive – A Real Example

There are two words (and all of their derivations) that I’ve come to hate over the last year or so…�expect� and “compete�. These two words are certainly not complicated to spell, pronounce, or use in normal conversation. However when they are used on sports message boards, the meanings can become nearly incomprehensible and stretched beyond recognition.

When someone uses “expectâ€?, it can mean anything from hope/dream, predict, and even require. For example if your manager (or Significant Other) says, “That was not what I expectedâ€?…then the meaning is obvious and it is not good. When a fan talks about “expecting to do betterâ€?, it is often hard to tell if that is a prediction or a hope. (The insanity of a fan talking about requirements for the coach/team should be obvious to all and not worth discussing…though some fans do so incessantly.)

“Compete� can also have several different meanings. For example, Stetson arrived in Raleigh with coaches, players, tennis shoes, etc. They ran, jumped, dribbled, and shot for 40 minutes and thus the sentence “Stetson was competing with NC State.� is a perfectly acceptable statement…..except for the little fact that Stetson would offer no competition to any ACC school.

In the sports world, “competitive� is normally used to describe a close game that could have been won by either team. Over a longer period of time, to say that one program was competitive with another would normally mean that your team won some games, even if the “bad guys� won more often. However, when the wins on the court/field occur less frequently than February 29th, then we have a problem.

So to help ground the optimistically-delusional fans, I am going to provide an illustration of a program that is competitive with a superior program…Maryland vs Duke. I don’t think describing Duke as having a superior program (or at least having superior results) to any other program in America over the last 20 years will raise much controversy. From 1999 through 2005, Duke finished ahead of Maryland in the regular season standings five times, tied with them once, and behind Maryland once. However, the 17 games played between Duke and Maryland over the last seven seasons break down as follows:

Location

Maryland’s

Record

@ Maryland

3-4

@ Duke

3-4

Neutral

1-2

Total:

7-10

This series contains overtime games, last-second shots, frantic comebacks…and a few trouncings. Maryland has finished the ACC regular season the last two years at 7-9, but still won three of five games against Duke who was ranked in the RPI Top-5 both years. Imagine that…actually beating a top-10 team. Guess we should tell Gary not to try so hard since losses to top-10 teams don’t count. 😉

It’s both sad and funny to watch some NC State fans try to define “competitive� in ways that don’t require winning. The saddest example has to be the silly spiel about State beating the last seven national champions in basketball. The only time that State beat one of these eventual national champions was in the 2002 ACC tourney when they upset Maryland. How anyone can take pride in beating a school before or after they won the NCAA tourney is beyond me….but we have fans that do.

Final Note
By almost any definition, Wake Forest and Maryland have both been competitive with the top teams in the country over the last few years. However, it is Maryland that has a regular season title, ACC Tourney title, two Final Four appearances, and a National Championship. They keep score for a reason……the real goal is to win and to win championships.

Raw Data  for Maryland
vs Duke

2005

Maryland 75, (4) Duke 66

Away

Maryland
99, (4) Duke 92 (OT)

Home

2004

(1)
Duke 68, Maryland
60

Home

(1)
Duke 86, Maryland
63

Away

Maryland
95, (1) Duke 87 (OT)

Neutral

2003

Maryland 87, (12) Duke 72

Home

(12)
Duke 75, Maryland
70

Away

2002

(4)
Duke 99, Maryland
78

Away

Maryland 87, (4) Duke 73

Home

2001

(1)
Duke 98, Maryland 96

Home

Maryland 91, (1) Duke 80

Away

(1)
Duke 84, Maryland
82

Neutral

2000

(2)
Duke 80, Maryland
70

Home

Maryland
98, (2) Duke 87

Away

(2)
Duke 81, Maryland
68

Neutral

1999

(1)
Duke 82, Maryland
64

Home

(1)
Duke 95, Maryland
77

Away

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

General NCS Basketball NCS Football

54 Responses to Being Competitive – A Real Example

  1. Rick 12/16/2005 at 9:42 AM #

    Another good article.
    We have been competitive with the bottom of the ACC but not the top. We are mired in a bog of average.

  2. Class of '74 12/16/2005 at 10:32 AM #

    When you are competitive your fanbase has that feeling of excitement and anticipation. I certainly don’t sense that kind of feeling right now with our basketball program. The feeling I sense is one of uncertainty. We are wishing for the best but our expectations aren’t quite there. I base this only on my gut and 45 years of watching ACC basketball.

  3. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 10:34 AM #

    Good info…I wonder why you didn’t look at GW’s first 8-9 years against K?

    SF: I wonder why you don’t do the work and share it with us?

  4. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 10:50 AM #

    If you had bothered to look at the links in the Table of Raw Data, you would see that kenpom.com only goes back to 1999…which is why I stopped at 1999.

    If you have the information available, then feel free to post how long it took GW to build Maryland from a laughing stock to a national power. I suspect that you won’t because it will be just another example of Herb lagging behind the competion.

  5. site admin 12/16/2005 at 10:54 AM #

    LOL. now it takes 15-20 years to build a program. Good stuff. I remember when the HSSS used to compare Sendek to Dean (he was burned in effigy!!). Then it was Coach K (Coach K was almost fired!!!!), Now it is Gary Williams. Keep the laugh track rollling.

  6. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 11:03 AM #

    Just for PD, here is a link to GW’s bio that summarizes his career:

    http://umterps.collegesports.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/williams_gary00.html

    Please note that GW started with a laughing-stock of a program and nine years later had went to three S-16’s. As I suspected, the more data you accumulate, the more Herb lags behind the competition.

  7. Class of '74 12/16/2005 at 11:25 AM #

    The cold hard truth, for the ardent supporters of Herb, flies in the face of their emotions. I harp on this all of the time but if we would just schedule one of the top ten toughest schedules then we would see if Herb is the guy or not. So far the record would say he’s not but if after all of this time he could run the gauntlet then maybe I would feel differently. Our relatively soft schedules reveal so little that the vacillation just goes on and on and on……..

  8. TVP 12/16/2005 at 12:03 PM #

    I don’t think results against one particular school are all that relevant to anything. Les frequently beat UNC. We’ve been more than “competitive” in football w/ FSU – doesn’t change the fact that overall results have been mostly mediocre.

  9. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 1:19 PM #

    I don’t think results against one particular school are all that relevant to anything.

    You are correct. But some people, including Lee Fowler, like to make claims that State has been competitive with ___________; usually with some small print attached. If people are going to make a claim like that, I would like for the comparisons to have some basis in reality. However, the primary goal should be to win….not just be competitive.

  10. SaccoV 12/16/2005 at 2:54 PM #

    Wonderful work here Va … semantically, the word “competitive” does entail a certain amount of wins. Not just in defense of Herb, but for the most part, sports “analysts” (whom I like to refer to as ANAL-ists) love to throw the word around, especially to inflate the lackluster accomplishments of long-tenured coaches (Gene Keady always comes to mind in this discussion). More to the point, just the fact that our team shows up to play a game, does NOT make them competitive. I recall a conversation with Jim Brown about how football players today are so concerned with money. He believes that players should always strive to be the best, and thus the money will always be at a high level. Our current athletics administration does NOT see that acheivement is its own reward. The benefits of honestly competing at a national level are immediately evident, Final 4s, College World Series, etc. If we were honestly competing with the top schools in each sport, there would be no doubt. A Sweet 16 appearance is nice but it’s never a Final 4, which is the real brass ring in college basketball. Our ever imaginative Fowler-inspired support team is clueless to this explicit demand from the fanbase, and ignoring our school’s lack of real results will never equate to real “competition” in our view. Dress up a pig in a tuxedo ….

  11. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 6:45 PM #

    VA…I already knew, but I was curious as to the response you’d get…big shock! 2-19 verse K in first 10 seasons…not one 2 win sweep until recently. I’m sure since you don’t think Herb should get any credit for beating Doh, you don’t have a problem with not counting GW’s beating Brey.

    I actually agree with the premise of your post, but I read between the lines for a living, and felt you should of at least noted the horrid record of GW verse K early in his tenure. I assume your message was to illustrate how Herb really isn’t “competitive” with K.

    TVP…nice post

    74…if we had played more 50-100 top teams instead of 200-250 teams, our schedule would be amoug the top 10 most difficult over last 4 seasons in the RPI…if there’s one thing I agree with the anti-Herb crowd, is we play way too many terrible teams, when we should play more “not bad” teams.

  12. Rick Jernigan 12/16/2005 at 6:52 PM #

    Maryland really has been competitive with Duke during the 1999 through 2005 period. For the record, State was 2 – 16, UNC 3 – 15 and Wake 3 – 13 for the same period. I like these kinds of exercises to see how the “facts” squares with my memory of events. The Maryland & State records match up with my memory very well. I am a little surprised UNC’s record isn’t a little better but am very surprised at how poor Wake’s record is against Duke during this period.

  13. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 7:25 PM #

    Oh…VA…I missed that note at bottom. Gary Williams took over a worse program than Herb? What a joke. I’ve been through this debate so many times I want to puke. I’ve followed BB since the 70’s…I remember the Maryland days clearly. I won’t deny it was a challenge for GW, as it would have been for any coach, but the guy started out with 2 NBA players and had a pool of talent in his backyard. Sure…it looked grim when they went on probation, but with all the guys around Northern Va and Washington area, no coach can suck for too long, unless they are completely incompetent. Even the very best coaches require certain breaks to go their way during difficult times. WHat would have happened to K, if during those key early season, he lost Dawkins to injury? He would have strugled for 2-3 more seasons, and may not have gotten the recruits he got. Tht would have put him further behind and he could have been fired…you never know. But K didin’t have many obstacles once the ball started rolling. I’m not comparing Herb to K, because k has many more years of experience, but I don’t think K was a better coach than Herb when he was 43 years old.

    GW’s break was Joe Smith…before that he had W Williams who was better than any player Les recruited, and he at least able to keep the program from falling apart.

    I’m not saying Herb situation was worse, I’m saying they were both extremely difficult, and to defend what GW went through, and to JUSTIFY HIS SORRY RECORD(tougue in cheek), only to help your crusade against Herb is so transparant any self respecting Wolfpack fan with an “IQ over a hundred” should be able to figure it out.

    Point is…GW is a great coach and it took him a while before he caught a break. Everyone knew he could get it done eventually, because he had done so in the past. Herb doesn’t have the past toat his defense, so it makes it even harder for him with many diehard fans. My frustration is with fans who simply refuse to see the programs rising…JUST LIKE MARYLANDS DID! Last year about this time and the year before that(about this time), I went throught this same crap..I understand why, because I was conflicted myself…but Herb has proven he can coach with the best, he just needs everyone to support him…it can’t hurt.

    I feel some fans want to se him gone no matter what, and those are the fans I have no patience for. I want a successful coach here as bad as anyone, and until the AD indicates and change may be needed, then I support the program.

    Let’s just fire the AD! Because he obviuosly isn’t as smart as the anti-Herb crowd…they are all knowing…riiiiiight

    Sorry to go on an off topic tangent…but this type of clearly negative campaigning is silly. Quite honestly…it’s a waste of your valuable time. Let the sesson play out and if we fall apart with this team, I’ll be by your side…it at going to happen.

  14. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 7:56 PM #

    site admin…is this you Jeff?…15-20 years? We started winning in 6th season…we swept Maryland last season and should do it again this year.

  15. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 8:52 PM #

    I actually agree with the premise of your post, but I read between the lines for a living, and felt you should of at least noted the horrid record of GW verse K early in his tenure. I assume your message was to illustrate how Herb really isn’t “competitive� with K.

    Actually, you didn’t read my mind at all. My entry was directed at the delusional fans that dream up stats like beating the last seven national champions. The first time that piece of crap was posted at Pack Pride, the poster then went on to say that State was already competitive with the top teams in the country.

    In one of Lee Fowler’s press conferences, he said that over the last four years, State has been competitive with UNC and Duke. To claim that State has been competitive with Duke is a joke….and a very bad one. While Fowler’s comments about UNC are technically correct, they are just as silly as beating the last seven national champions baloney.

    I don’t need two pages of text to say that State has not been competitve with Duke. Every one with a triple-digit IQ already knows that. My purpose for this entry is exactly what I stated…..if you are going to use the word “competitive”, Maryland vs Duke is the standard that I would pick. Duke has had the upper hand, but it is far from domination.

  16. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 8:54 PM #

    I’m sure since you don’t think Herb should get any credit for beating Doh, you don’t have a problem with not counting GW’s beating Brey.

    Of course Herb gets credit for beating Doh. I enjoyed those games immensely. Unfortunately, Doh isn’t coaching in the ACC anymore, so those stats are relegated to history….not the trash can.

    I have no idea what you are talking about with GW vs Brey.

  17. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 9:03 PM #

    I’m not saying Herb situation was worse, I’m saying they were both extremely difficult, and to defend what GW went through, and to JUSTIFY HIS SORRY RECORD(tougue in cheek), only to help your crusade against Herb is so transparant any self respecting Wolfpack fan with an “IQ over a hundred� should be able to figure it out.

    Once again, you assume way too much. GW and Herb took both took over programs in terrible shape. Both GW and Dave Odom turned their respective programs around much quicker and much better than Herb. Herb may some day match the same accomplishments as those two, but it hasn’t happened yet.

    I have no crusade against Herb. I am not naive enough to think that blogs, message boards, or petitions are going have any effect on decisions made at NC State. I have now completed four of five entries that I have outlined on pertinent stats with State’s program. My goal was to get all five up during the “pre-season”, so those that are interested can compare this season to the recent past….it is called trending.

    GW had some bad years, everyone knows that. My entry was not directed at Herb, but towards the State fans that I call optimistically-delusional. You can believe me or not…..your choice.

  18. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 9:15 PM #

    but Herb has proven he can coach with the best,

    I know of no evidence to support this claim and have already posted the head-to-head records that contradict this assertion.

    My frustration is with fans who simply refuse to see the programs rising

    I think that everyone agrees that the program has risen substantially from where it was when Herb took over. I see the last four years as much more of a plateau than anything else. As I have said before, this year will be better, worse, or more of the same. Time will tell.

  19. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 10:33 PM #

    VA…good response

    The GW verse Brey comment was referring to ’95 when he beat Duke w/o K. Just like everyone else except for Les and Uva(I think).

    I see the point you tried to make. But this statement,”I see the last four years as much more of a plateau than anything else.” is where we have a problem and I think it’s our only problem, because I assume if you didn’t feel this way, you wouldn’t be posting these types of blogs.

    You do a great job with these blogs, but to admit the program has “risen substantially”, then in the next sentence you suggest we gone as far as we can, is not logical. You’re making an assumption on no data, just your gut feeling. I think Sendek is as smart as any coach in the ACC(including K). All coach needs now is stature and national exposure..that comes with winning big games, which he has done more of during the past few seasons. He still has a ways to go, by beating ALL the teams he’s suppose to , and winning the BIG BIG one’s…we need to finish better. No doubt

    If Herb has substantcially improved our program, that is all the data you need to assume he’ll continue the climb, especially if you look at our roster.

    Just think how good we could have been with Powell the last 2 seasons. Was Powell really correct in assuming he had no place in this offense? He(and whoever convinced him) was dead wrong and this program paid the price…again…bad breaks

    I laughed at fans that claimed this offense couldn’t be successful with a big man…they were wrong. They would still make this assertion after the ACC tourney run 2 seasons in Powells last year. This offense is perfect for that skilled bigman.

    I only hope we can keep Simmons for 2 more seasons. That will do amazing things for our recruiting skilled bigmen.

  20. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 10:48 PM #

    I find Pomeroy to be very interesting…

    2006…we are currently ranked 9th
    2005…23rd
    2004…6th….that’s 06 place!
    2003…50th
    2002…18th

    2 out of last 4 seasons we have finished ahead of Maryland and WF in this poll. After this season it we will probably be 3 out of 5.

    Is that “competitive”?

  21. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 10:51 PM #

    Oh…and 3 out of 4 we finished ahead of UNC…including Roy. After this season it will be 4 out of 5…WOW!

  22. Rick 12/16/2005 at 11:13 PM #

    “but Herb has proven he can coach with the best, he just needs everyone to support him…it can’t hurt.”
    Talk about throwing out crap. Prove what you say

  23. VaWolf82 12/16/2005 at 11:14 PM #

    but to admit the program has “risen substantially�, then in the next sentence you suggest we gone as far as we can, is not logical.

    You’re reading something other than what I wrote. I said that the last four years look like a plateau. That is an evaluation of the recent past, not a prediction of the future.

    If Herb has substantcially improved our program, that is all the data you need to assume he’ll continue the climb

    Now you are the one that is being illogical. I have two issues with this statement:
    1) Just because Herb has pulled State out of the cellar, is no reason to think that he can take take them to the penthouse.
    2) It is much easier to climb over Clemson and Flarida State, than UNC, Duke, WF, and Maryland.

    2 out of last 4 seasons we have finished ahead of Maryland and WF in this poll. After this season it we will probably be 3 out of 5. Is that “competitive�?

    Yes, but because of head-to-head comparisons, not because of a computer formula. Herb is 4-6 against both Gary and Skippy over the last four years….which clearly meets the “competitive” criteria contained in my blog entry. 0-4 against Roy and 3 wins in nine years against K is certainly not competitive.

    Oh…and 3 out of 4 we finished ahead of UNC

    Hold onto those Doh years as long as you can.

    After this season it will be 4 out of 5…WOW!

    You seem to base alot of your evaluations on predictions of future success. Surely you can see how this type of argument is not very convincing.

  24. DRO 12/16/2005 at 11:19 PM #

    PACDADDY,

    “After this season it will be 4 out of 5…WOW!” might be a bit of an assumption, considering that the season is so young and the Heels have a road win against Kentucky. And don’t forget that UNC won an ACC regular season title and a national title last year, so I’d assume that more than makes up for Roy’s 1st season where State ended up ahead.

    “I won’t deny it was a challenge for GW, as it would have been for any coach, but the guy started out with 2 NBA players and had a pool of talent in his backyard.” Would you then say that Herb does NOT have a pool of talent in his backyard? Of course he does, but he doesn’t recruit that talent. Hodge was definitely a winner, no question, but who else can you point to that was/is considered a top player in the country? And having NBA caliber players does not guarantee success (but it helps :-)).

    “If there’s one thing I agree with the anti-Herb crowd, is we play way too many terrible teams, when we should play more “not badâ€? teams.” You say this when in another post you said: “To suggest we need to play more OOC teams in the Top 5 because we play too many in the ACC is a joke right?” You have also harped on the “fact” that State has played more Top 5 teams than most in the nation, but now you are saying that State plays “way too many terrible teams”? Which is it?

  25. PACDADDY 12/16/2005 at 11:59 PM #

    DRO..my point about us playing too many terrible teams, means, if we scheduled 100-150 ranked teams instead of 300…our RPI would look completely different.

    You said Herb doesn’t recruit in his back yard and then said we don’t have a player of Hodges caliber…see Simmons…back yard and future AA…mark it down

    UNC beat a poor UK team. UK has chemistry problems, but will be better with the return of Morris.

    VA…3-9 verse Duke is better than what 95% of the country would do…GW got his team over the mental block against Duke…much like Amato did with FSU. I appreciate you pointing out the 4-6 records…we all know it should be 5-5 against both of those teams.

    I’m still confuse by the “plateau” comment…have we or haven’t we?

    You do realize we finished 11-5 in the ACC 2 seasons ago..right? We may have lost the battle, but we won the war(against UNC)…that’s competitive…head to head is important however…Is Hewitt “competitive” with Herb?

    Climbing over WF is going to happen and we climbed over Maryland the last 2 seasons. I realize they won the ACC tourney(thanks to the ahole refs), but we finished ahead of them in the regular season…didn’t we?(honest question…I’m going by memory here).

    Like I said…we need a few more BIG BIG wins. Like UCONN last season.

    I’m telling you guys…we can beat anyone and everyone on our schedule this season. If Simmons continues his progress and Brackman gets it going, the rest will fall into place.

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