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  • burnbarn's Avatar
    Member
    • Jan 2013
    • 2

    The Elmore Index for POY

    #1
    Very interesting.. haven't done the math yet. Anyone have any thoughts?
    Player's PPG x 5
    RPG x 3
    APG x 2
    BPG x 2
    Team's wins x 5
  • WeAreCured's Avatar
    Member
    • Jan 2013
    • 83

    #2
    Big Rich with 207 at the moment, without factoring in blocks. Not too shabby.

    Comment

    • Wulfpack's Avatar
      Member
      • Jan 2013
      • 129

      #3
      It will be Plums or Larkin.

      Comment

      • DanielSimpsonDay's Avatar
        Member
        • Jan 2013
        • 25

        #4
        Shooting from the hip, without looking at numbers, I would have picked Larkin as the ACC POY; a sophomore leading a group of seniors to the best record in the league at a football school in a basketball conference. But then I decided to look at the numbers and it has to be Plumlee just on ppg and rebounds. I compiled the numbers for some of the better players for the over .500 teams plus Erick Green. By the index Plumlee is running away with it, Curry solidly in second and a half a dozen guys fighting for third.

        Name ppg rpg apg bpg wins weighted total Team
        Larkin 13.8 3.9 4.3 0.1 23 204.5 Miami
        Kadji 13.1 6.5 0.9 1.4 23 204.6
        Plumlee 17 10.2 2.1 1.6 26 253 Duke
        Curry 17 2.4 1.6 0.2 26 225.8
        CJL 15.1 7.6 1.4 1.1 21 208.3 NCSU
        Howell 13 10.9 1.8 1 21 208.3
        Brown 12.5 4.3 7 0.7 21 195.8
        JMM 14.8 8 1.3 0.4 21 206.4 UNC
        Bullock 14.2 6.2 3 0.4 21 201.4
        Harris 17.2 4.1 2.2 0.6 20 203.9 UVA
        Green 25 4 3.9 0.2 13 210.2 VPI

        Last edited by DanielSimpsonDay; 03-06-2013, 07:29 AM.

        Comment

        • ncsu1987's Avatar
          Member
          • Jan 2013
          • 38

          #5
          This is actually not bad as an indicator. My only (small) gripe with it is that all the components are normalized (i.e., "per game") except for the # of team wins which is absolute. This gives an advantage to teams like Duke and Va Tech who have played more games (30). But it's a small gripe, since all of the teams have played 28-30 games.


          At this point on the season, without looking at numbers, I would have agreed with Wulfpack, above, that Plumlee and Larkin were the clear front-runners. Curry is the surprise to me. Knew he was having a good year, a little surprised at how good. His personal numbers are in the ballpark with the other guards in the list, so he's likely just profiting from the boost he gets from the Duke team wins.

          Big Rich is having a tremendous year (and deserving of 1st team All ACC IMO) but you can see by the numbers that his year is not really at the same level as Plumlee's. Even if you put him on Duke's team (so he gets the extra 25 point for the extra 5 wins) he's still far short of Plumlee's metric on this scale.

          Comment


          • DanielSimpsonDay's Avatar
            DanielSimpsonDay commented
            #5.1
            Editing a comment
            I think it’s a pretty good metric for evaluating the best player(s) and their performance (stats) along with their team’s performance (wins). Personally, I would like to see a negative variable for TOs, but over the long run, most A:TO ratios are around 2:1 so unless you make the weight for TOs different from the weight for assists it’s a wash.
            I wonder if the wins variable should be for conference wins instead of overall wins (esp. since this is a conference award). That would eliminate any bias because of more games.
        • Texpack's Avatar
          Member
          • Jan 2013
          • 67

          #6
          I want Richard Howell to make first team All-ACC more than I have ever wanted an NC State player to do so. A lot of it is where he has come from and how he has conducted himself which won't play with the voters but I think his performance is more than worthy as well. This will be a very tough year to get on the first team. Plumlee, Larkin and Harris are locks. I think there will be some split of the vote between Calvin and Richard. I could see us with three guys on the second team and none on the first team.

          Comment


          • DanielSimpsonDay's Avatar
            DanielSimpsonDay commented
            #6.1
            Editing a comment
            Tex, I bet you are right. I think the first team is going to be guard heavy, while the second team will be 4/5 heavy. I see Plumlee, Larkin, Harris, Green & Curry making first team. CJL, Howell, Brown, Kadji & JMM on the second team. Because VPI is so terrible, it’s possible for Green to drop to the second team and open a slot for someone, but based on perceptions and history, it’s more likely JMM would get that spot over Howell or CJL (warranted or not).
        • xphoenix87's Avatar
          Member
          • Feb 2013
          • 4

          #7
          Are those numbers supposed to be predictive of who will actually win the award, or is it who should win the award? It's probably pretty good at the former, since awards voters tend to be, by and large, idiots. As far as an actual measure of player performance or who is deserving of PoY, it's a completely nonsensical metric masquerading as actual statistical analysis.

          Green should be PoY. He won't be, but he should.

          Plumlee, Green, Larkin, Harris, Howell - That should be your first team, and I really don't see any argument otherwise. Curry and Kadji are the only other guys who have any real case, and they frankly just haven't been as good as these five.

          Comment


          • DanielSimpsonDay's Avatar
            DanielSimpsonDay commented
            #7.1
            Editing a comment
            Personally I can’t support a guy for POY on a team in the cellar of a mediocre conference. VPI has 4 conference wins and 13 total, that’s just a good player on a horrible team.
            To me, POY is more about impact to the team’s performance/record and that’s why I have Larkin as POY (ignoring stats). Without Larkin I don’t know if Miami wins 10 conference games. Without Plumlee, Duke is still really solid, but their performance sans Kelly shows they are still really competitive without one of their stars (their losses are more a result of playing true road games as opposed to missing Kelly IMHO – Kelly probably makes the biggest difference @MD and @ UVA).
            Without Green, where is VPI. In the grand scheme of things, his performance doesn’t translate to team success. Now, my view of POY may be different from the league’s intention. If the intention is to fill a stat sheet or if it’s just based on ppg then yeah, Plumlee or Green is the guy.

          • xphoenix87's Avatar
            xphoenix87 commented
            #7.2
            Editing a comment
            That's stuff Green has no control over though. He's saddled with easily the worst teammates of anyone in the conference. I'm gonna bust out some advanced metrics here, because it really emphasizes how unique Green's season has been.

            There are two really useful stats for measuring offensive production, "usage rate" and "offensive rating". The first is a measure of what percentage of your teams' possessions you use while you're on the floor (obviously, the average is 20%). The latter is a measure of your efficiency, how many points you will produce for your team if you use 100 possessions (the average NCAA offense has about a 100 offensive rating). Typically, as your usage rate goes up, your offensive rating goes down (i.e. if you have to create more offense, it's tougher to do so efficiently). Obviously, a great offensive player will have a high usage rate and high offensive rating. A major-conference player who is an average offensive player would be expected to have something like a 20% USG and 104 ORtg.

            So, all that said, what kind of support does Green have? Not a single player on Virginia Tech other than Green has a usage rate over 15% and an offensive rating over 100. Not one. For comparisons sake, App St. has 5 guys that fit that criteria. Green has no teammates who you would consider even average offensive players. Everyone rates from "below-average" to "abysmal". Despite that, Tech actually has a league-average offense, their offense is 7th in the ACC, and it's entirely due to Green. Every single game, opponents go in knowing all they have to do is stop Green, and he's still spectacular. It's not just that he scores a ton, it's that he scores efficiently, and he does it while all the focus of the defense is on him. The only players even in his neighborhood as far as offensive numbers go (31.6% USG, 121.3 ORtg) are Trey Burke, Doug McDermott, and Kelly Olynyk, and all of them have MUCH better teammates than Green.

            [/rant] All that to say, Green is fantastic, and I don't ding him for have crappy teammates (especially since it actually makes what he's doing much harder). I have little doubt that if you surrounded Green with McDs AAs like Plumlee has, he'd win PoY going away.
        • Wulfpack's Avatar
          Member
          • Jan 2013
          • 129

          #8
          I would vote for Larkin.

          Comment


          • Nav's Avatar
            Nav commented
            #8.1
            Editing a comment
            Yeah, Larkin is so good he helps tip in game winning buckets for other teams.
        • Wulfpack's Avatar
          Member
          • Jan 2013
          • 129

          #9
          You can't give it to Green. He has been great but VT is just awful. You have to win games. Not his fault. This thing is going to Plums or Larkin. I would go Larkin but Plums will probably get it.

          Comment

          • Gene's Avatar
            Member
            • Jan 2013
            • 13

            #10
            I can't fault Green for VPI's talent. Todd Fuller had a very close vote, his senior year, against Tim Duncan for POY, though eventually losing. Fuller was a very good college player on a lousy Wolfpack squad.

            The voters didn't hold the Wolfpack's performance against Fuller in 1996. I don't want to hold VPI's performance against Green.

            Comment


            • NITStan's Avatar
              NITStan commented
              #10.1
              Editing a comment
              HELLO and they should not unfortunately he is like Walter Johnson on the Washington Senators.

            • Gene's Avatar
              Gene commented
              #10.2
              Editing a comment
              Yup, Green's going to be a HoF pitcher. Johnson got into the MLB HoF a year ahead of Cy Young. Shows what folks thought about Walt, way back when.
          • NITStan's Avatar
            Member
            • Mar 2013
            • 21

            #11
            HELLO this AM Adam Gold tweets UNC coach Rhoy for COY and Paige ROY. Never mind that Larranaga took unranked team from scandal crippled school and destroyed ACC without calling even one person a "pansy". And the NC "sports media" are puzzled that people call them UNC asskissers.

            Comment


            • ncsu1987's Avatar
              ncsu1987 commented
              #11.2
              Editing a comment
              Thanks for the clarification, that does change my perception. Ordinarily I would agree, but IMO the "turnaround" consisted of him essentially changing out to a smaller lineup, something that fans (and some analysts) had been howling literally for weeks. I could make the alternate argument that his innate stubbornness cost UNC a few losses until he could admit what was already pretty clear. I give Roy his props when they're due, but not this year.

              POY is certainly debatable this year, although I can't see anybody getting the nod over Plumlee. But COY? Pretty cut and dry to me. Have to agree with Stan on this one.

            • xphoenix87's Avatar
              xphoenix87 commented
              #11.3
              Editing a comment
              Larranaga should probably be national COY. The change he's brought to Miami is so drastic. The idea of Paige for ROY is flat-out ludicrous though. He's been pretty terrible by-and-large.

            • Wufpacker's Avatar
              Wufpacker commented
              #11.4
              Editing a comment
              I'm liking you more and more Stan

              There should be no question for ACC COY. Any writer that votes for anyone but Larranaga should have their credentials revoked.
          • NITStan's Avatar
            Member
            • Mar 2013
            • 21

            #12
            HELLO please note that Adam Gold one of the Triangle "Sports Media" is still pushing Coach Rhoy for COY. The asskissing never stops. THANK YOU.

            http://www.wralsportsfan.com/making-...iams/12199116/

            Comment

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