We have 4 games left in the regular season.

EDIT: Just realized you were counting the first game of the ACCT in the 5 games.

That said, we should/need-to win these 4.
Right now it's a battle btwn us, UVa, and UNX (hoping Maryland doesn't sneak up from behind).

If we win these 4 winnable games, we end up at 12-6 in conference.
UVa plays Duke, Maryland, and FSU. UVa likely loses to Duke, so if they win the rest we are tied in the standings. Unfortunately, they beat us the only time we played this year, so we need them to lose at FSU or BC to move ahead of them.
UNX plays Duke as well. They also play at Maryland and against FSU.

Good news, both of them have to play Duke. Bad news, that only ties us with them in the win-loss column. We need to win out and need one of them to stumble twice in order to take the #4 seed in the ACCT.

I know this season may still turn out to be a great year but right now I get totally depressed thinking about State bball. So far it seems like such a disappointment considering the talent on the team.

I think we win 3 of next 4, and the thursday game (unless things break so we don't play until friday), get a 5-6 seed minimum. Why that would be something to be down about...I just don't get it.

If we wing 3 of the next 4 I think our seed will be closer to 8. Plus playing on Thursday, which we will if we only win 3/4, is total crap with this team. Are we back to just be satisfied with getting into the tourney. I personally will only be happy with either an ACC title or deep NCAA run. Hopefully the later.

Apologies to choppack1 if this takes the thread down a wrong turn, but....

That's very interesting to me, because I personally would much prefer a conference title over anything NCAA Tourney related short of a national championship.

^ and I am will Nav 100%

Deep run in the NCAA Tourney leads to high profile recruits and prominence for the program. Look at the difference between last year and this year. That builds a program that can compete for National Championships. It builds long term success

ACC title gives nothing if you fail in the NCAA tournament

^ FWIW, I wasn't trying to say Nav (or you, or anyone else) is wrong for feeling that way, or that I don't get (and somewhat agree with) the reasoning. And I totally get that my feeling on the matter has at least somewhat to do with a nostalgia about the conference championship that is largely personal in it's nature.

That being said, an ACC title most certainly does not give you nothing.

No worries Wuf, I understood where you were coming from.

An ACC title gives you a banner you can hang and means you are a champion. To me that is something very meaningful. It puts you in the history books. How can you possibly say an ACC title gives you nothing?

I say that because in 2007 Sidney Lowe lost the ACC final with 9 points. We were one wobbling player away from seriously taking that title and Lowe would still have been a bad coach that could recruit. The ACC is not what it was and winning the ACC tournament would make me happy and excstatic for 2 minutes and then I would be even happier that it made us make the tourney (if we weren't making it the year we wont the ACC tournament). Long term it wouldn't do much for the team besides hanging a banner.

We disagree and I probably used the wrong word when saying nothing but the ACC tournament / regular season title doesn't match up with the NCAA tournament. If Miami goes on to loose in the first round of the tournament then that is what recruits will see. A great season will be significantly diminished by ONE GAME and recruits will note it. Who here thinks that NC State is in the running for Randle without the deep run in the NCAA tournament last year?

To acknowledge something doesn't mean that one is happy with it........

I've been setting up a 'four factors' summary for each game and we appear to have lost 2 games we should have won and not yet won any that we should have lost. We are definitely better than our record and probably 'should' be 10-4 right now. That would probably put us currently on the 4-seed line. I think we are most likely to end up a 5, incurring a penalty for bad luck. If we win the ACCT I think we re-luck ourselves into a 4. Of course my projected 5 assumes 'balanced' luck and results from here until seeding.

If we don't make the NCAAT we are not only unlucky, but cursed.

MP - I don't think we're cursed. We've lost close games UMd and Miami because we didn't block out. We lost at UNC because we turned it over too much. We lost at Wake when we blew a big lead and didn't rebound well again...we do the little things better and win some of those. Just winning 2 of those as you note, would have put us in great shape. But we didn't...until we start rebounding and defending well, we'll continue to lose a ton of close games...unless, like Clemson, we're lucky enough to have the ball for the last real possession. If the other team has it with adequate, I think everyone knows they'll get a real good luck - through an easy drive to the basket or an offensive rebound for a follow-up put-back.

I agree, my 'cursed' was preceded by a big 'if'.

Personally, I don't include Thursday's ACCT games in any of my bubble projections. A win against an over-matched opponent is expected and won't impress anyone. A loss is bad, but won't likely be the worst loss on any bubble team's resume. A bubble team generally needs to beat a NCAAT quality team to feel good about moving forward...which means a win on Friday and possibly Saturday.

i.e., a "Herb Special".

To me, and ACC title would be HUGE. NCSU has 10 championship banners, but the last one is dated 1987. Prior to that time, a new banner could be expected every few years. From 1954 to 1987, longest period of time without a championship was 9 years (1974 to 1983). It has now been 26 years since 1987. Hanging another banner would be a giant step towards the return of Wolfpack basketball as we were used to it before 1990.

This is one of those things that vary greatly from one fan to the next. I would rather have an ACC title than a S-16. I would rather have a Final 4 than an ACCT.

Count me in the acc tournament title being huge crowd.

And via wolf, regarding this as a quality with, I agree. My greater poise is that if we have fallen to the bubble this loss could keep us out of the dance

Well, we have avoided 0 and 5

From CBS Sports -
Current RPI rank - 26 Which means something close to a 7 seed at present. (If teams ahead of State lose tonight or Thurs, State could slide up w/o playing.)

ACC Bubble Teams
UVA - RPI - 67
2 x Top 25 wins. Total of 3 x Top 50 wins

UMD - RPI - 72
1 x Top 25 win. Total of 2 x Top 50 wins

Both bubble teams have the same huge negative....OOC schedules ranked #297 and #298.
For those that need a reminder of how a poor OOC schedule can affect a bubble team, here's a post-selection entry I did a while back:

http://www.statefansnation.com/index...bble-thoughts/

Latest Bracketology has us down a spot to an 8 seed in the Midwest Region. A win there and we would have to face Indiana. Yikes.

Carolina is now a 7 seed and UVA a 10 seed.

If we end up a #8 seed, I think the opposing #1 seed will be rooting like hell for the #9 to beat us.

no question. But I don't want to be a number 8. Beating a one who breezed by a 16 in the second round will be a tall order.

Would you rather be an 8 seed facing Gonzaga in the 2nd round or a 7 seed facing Louisville in the 2nd round? Or even a 6 facing Florida. Give me Gonzaga.

I had the fortune of watching the IU @ Minnesota game last week while I was in Minneapolis.The place (which they call "The Barn") reminded me a lot of Reynolds but older. A lot of fun - I mean what major upset in front of home fans isn't?

At the same time State began being projected as a #8 to play Indiana in Dayton. Trust me, this might be the BEST time to catch Indiana. The few games they do lose have been games they totally expect to win. See: Minnesota. IU has played several top 10 teams home & away in the Big Ten and has won every one of those games.

I am not sure IU will get up as much for a game in the R32 as they would S16 or later. Plus, the beat State in Raleigh last year. If we were to play IU as the 2nd game of the 1st weekend, that just might be the perfect time to play them. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather win our way to a higher seed between now and then, but being in the 8-spot v. Indiana is not a death sentence for State at all.

Anyone else noticed how ESPN literally spends hours evaluating bubble teams' BPIs when talking NCAAT resumes, even though it's not a factor used by the NCAAT selection committee?

My personal preference at this point is for us to win our next two and then go deep enough in the ACCT to be the #6, which means you wouldn't have to play the #1 until the regional finals.

I really truly think we are a 5 or a 6, as long as we don't acquire another bad loss. The committee DOES (although I don't think they really SHOULD) take into account player injuries. That 0-3 mark sans Zo will seed us above our RPI.

Plus, we have lots of other factors on our side. Multiple quality wins. Only one bad loss (@Wake). Strong non-conference SOS.

BTW, the Zags are a nightmare matchup for us. Very strong guards, and a deep, athletic frontline. No thanks.

I watched Florida against Alabama last Saturday, to make sure my prior impressions weren't inaccurate. I stand by my earlier statement that Florida is the perfect 1/2 matchup for us, whenever that might arise. Them or Georgetown.

BJD95, who are you and what have you done with BJD95????

I remain somewhat optimistic on this team. Things are slowly coming together, we just need to show up and play like a team come tourney time. We usually show up for big games but then UNC was a debacle. We have weaknesses that other teams can easily see but I think our own worst enemy will be us.

I don't think we get a 6 seed without at least 2 wins in next 3 games (of course, anything but 2 of 3 would qualify as a bad loss, so I'm not contradicting you BJD). I'm trying to figure out our quality wins - UConn, Duke and UNC both at home. We do have a good SOS...

We've avoided a trainwreck, win next 2 and we should have excellent momentum going into tournament and we'll have hopefully removed ourselves from the 7-10 seeding block in the NCAAs.

Cut out those references to HWSNBN..You will regret it because it's a freakin' jinx!

RPI does not always correlate to seeding.

Nope - it doesn't. However, it gives us a good idea of where you'll be seeded.

Selection committee members do use other rating systems, but the strongest correlation is the RPI. I think our biggest drawback is that we only have a few quality wins...and none of them have been on the road.

We'll need a strong ACC tournament and winning at least 1 of 2 to avoid being between a 7-9, IMHO. A lot of the bracketology has us in that range.

At this point, I think we're in unless something catastrophic happens.

We win our next 3 - we're looking very good at a seed of around 6, max is still a 4 IMHO, unless we somehow win out...then I think we have a slight shot at a 3, but I think it's a very slight shot and would require us beating UVa or UNC, Miami and Duke.

We win 2 games - including ACC tourney - I think we're in the 7-9 range.

We win 1 of next 3 - I think you are looking at 8-10, depending on how competitors do.

Win zero - and I think we're a 10, certainly with a chance of falling lower.

We've got a solid resume. However, if we crap the bed in these next 3 games, which I'll consider winning less than 2 of the next 3 games - and not advancing to ACC semifinals, it reinforces that we're a mediocre team who hasn't really beaten anybody since early February, deserving of a bubble-icious seed.

We finish strong - and it reinforces that we're really a Top 20 team who lost its "glue" during a key stretch - where it lost 3 straight to very legit basketball teams (2 of these losses were very close)...

We do OK - we're nothing special, and deserve a seeding that bounces us in the 2nd round vs. a 1 or two seed.

Simply put, we've positioned ourselves to prove the wide-variety of opinions on us right.

I think we have to lose out, or at least lose to FSU and on ACCT Thursday, to merit anything in 7-10 range.

@Maryland and @UVA are not bad losses. They were very close road defeats to bubble-caliber teams in tough venues. Duke lost each place, did they not? They will still get a 1 seed unless they lose to the Holes.

Reading some commentary, it's been noted that after the 1-3 seed lines are filled...nobody has a sterling resume. In fact, lines 4-6 are supposed to be the weakest in recent memory. SOMEBODY has to be placed there, and I don't see why it won't be NC State. Fewer bad losses than most, the injury excuse (which, again, I absolutely HATE that it's used, injuries are part of the game IMHO). Yes, we had our bad loss WITH Zo healthy. But when nobody stands out, the fact that we lost by a whisker to UVA and Miami...someone on the committee will note that Zo's injury likely cost us a quality road win and/or another signature home win. Again, it won't take much to stand out among a mediocre pack of candidates.

Additionally, if they get down to the eye test - we pass with flying colors. NC State looks like a very solid team right now. Any 1 or 2 seed would be pissed to face us in Round 2 (I don't count the play-ins as a round, no matter how the NCAA tries to force that down our throats). The committee most certainly does like to "reward" the 1s and 2s. History shows what kinds of teams usually populate the 7-10 lines. Without even pulling RPI ranks, I can tell you who looks like 7-10 seeds: St. Louis, Creighton, Iowa State, Washington, Villanova, whoever has a decent run in the SEC tourney. Mid-majors usually seed a few slots below pure RPI. Assuming some of them are ahead of NC State, that will also explain our upward movement.

Agree 100% with VaWolf and chop that a 4 line is our absolute ceiling. I think a 5 or 6 seed is an 85% likelihood, though. FWIW.

Although I have generally been a realist (some of the red-tinted glasses wearers might say "cynic" or "pessimist")...I have consistently noted that I like this team. And I warned before the season that success is usually two steps forward, one step back. Especially when there is early, unexpected success. It makes the following season a significant coaching/ego management challenge. I believe that MG has navigated same quite well. I actually feel that he's done a better coaching job this year than last.

If we win the next two, which I think we will, we will win the Tournament. That will get us a 5. I think just making the final will probably get us a 5. I just have "the feeling" about where we are headed. Gott has made some progress with our defense. We're not great on D, but we're a lot like the '82 Brewers in that we don't have to be great on D to dominate our opponents.

Tex, I wish I viewed your optimism. Especially if we land a 5 seed. Short bench + 4 days of games + a running style of offense = very, very tired legs.

Now, if we can get a bye then maybe. Duke is tough, very tough to bet against right now with Kelly in the lineup. IMO, Kelly is one of the best players in the country.

Duke with Kelly will be very tough to beat. UNC playing well. Miami very solid. Going to be fun.

So if we win our next 2 we will have a 5. If we lose our next 2 somewhere between a 7-9

Regardless of how the weekend games play out, it will (most likely) be UVA vs State on Friday in the ACCT. If UVA loses the ACCT game against State, I would be shocked if they make the NCAAT.

I'm not overly impressed with UNC, NCSU, or UVA. They are all tough at home and p***ies on the road. That's not usually a recipe for ACC or NCAA tourney success.

Correction.....
I thought that State lost all tie-breakers with UVA and UNC. The entry on the main blog says that State still has a shot at 3rd. (who knew?). But the outlook for UVA stays the same....they need a good win on ACCT Friday.

Jerry Palm has dropped State from a 7 to a 9 seed over the last couple weeks even when going 6-1 in the conf. Seems odd to me. I would think we are closer to a 7 seed right now. With a win Saturday I can see us a 6 seed.

Look at who the six wins are against. Then combine that with how poorly State played @UNC.

I think that Palm has had State in the 8/9 slot ever since the losing streak when Lo was hurt (which was immediately after the piss-poor endings @UMD and @WF).

I take that it's a good year when all we have to complain about is our seeding vs actually getting into the tourney. But I would like getting a 6 or 7 seed. I won't lose any sleep either way.

Here's a good discussion on the bubble.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

4 locks for the ACC with discussion on UVA and UMD (IMO, UMD needs several wins just to move on the bubble). Here's what they say about UVA

The Cavaliers are good. They just seem determined to prove otherwise. That is the best explanation I can come up with for Virginia's past three games, which began with as promising an RPI victory as a bubble team can get in last week's win over Duke. UVa looked great against the Blue Devils, not only controlling pace but playing some really deep, smart defense, and all of the positive efficiency trends we've seen from Virginia for so much of the season were on full display. And then, of course, the Cavs lost at Boston College, and followed that up with Thursday night's loss at Florida State. That all but deletes whatever positive profile boost they got from the Duke win, and will keep them mired in the bubble mess even with a win over Maryland in the ACC regular-season closer Sunday.

Thanks to the bedsh*tting yesterday, we're looking at 9 or 10 if we don't go too far in the tourney. I think our ceiling is now a 5 (with an ACC tournament win) - and with a loss vs. VaTech we could fall to an 11. A loss to VaTech would probably put our rpi somewhere in the mid 30s. (I think we're at 29 right now.)

Win 2 games, and we have a very legit shot at a 6. Win 3 and lose in championship, and we're a 6.

Yesterday's loss dropped us to 33 on the Dance Card. They have us at 99.90, but you can get an idea of how bad a loss to VaTech or even UVa will be in the tourney for this. Make no mistake about it, yesterday's loss was a killer. We haven't beaten a good team since January:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm