Weekly ACC Basketball Update

Photo from The Daily Herald

 

I started to say, “at least the Seahawks won”…but it would be more accurate to say that the Vikings lost. Luckily, there’s already a recap of the Wake Forest game up so I feel no need to pour salt into any open wounds. So let’s start the weekly roundup with the RPI summary table:

 

 

Items of Note

Back in the days of 7 to 9 conference teams, upsets seemed to happen a lot more often than we’ve seen over the last several years. But the first week saw quite a few with UVa losing twice to teams projected into the bottom third of the conference to go along with Clemson over L’ville on Sunday.

GT’s big win propelled them to “IN” status, at least for today.

Clemson starts the conference season 3-1 with wins at Syracuse and home against FSU and the big upset over L’ville….to go along with their normal loss at UNC. But throw in an OOC SOS ranking of #301 and you still end up with a miserable RPI ranking.

Virginia struggles on the road against both Techs to start conference play 1-2…matching their total conference losses in each of the last two years. That poor start makes it unlikely that the ‘Hoos will win the regular season for the third straight year.

Syracuse got Boeheim back but they still lost at home to UNC to bring up the bottom of the ACC at 0-4.

 

RPI Trends

You wouldn’t expect to see many trends developing in a little over a week’s worth of action, but I like to see the graphs anyway.

 

It’s a little surprising that UVa hasn’t dropped any further. They must have started with a pretty good lead in the actual RPI calculation such that their ranking didn’t drop too far with two losses.

If you look at the bottom, you can see that GT managed to just sneak into the trend graph.

Pitt is 13-1 so far this year with their only loss to Purdue on Dec 1. Playing MD-Eastern Shore produced a dip even though they won. Wins against GT at home and at ND put them in good standing so far. Their Top-50 wins are against Davidson, GT, and ND….so I’m not quite ready to bet the farm on Pitt. But it looks like they should be heading back to the NCAAT this year.

Now for the Bubble:

GT’s climb came from a loss @Pitt and their win at home against UVa. This may be their peak for the year, but for today it doesn’t suck to be a Yellow Jacket fan.

FSU shows the roller coaster effect that we often see at this time of the year. But this one is a little unique in that they are currently in a three-game losing streak. Rising rank with a loss on the road to Miami just proves that they got beat by a better team than others in 70-100 RPI ranking range.

 

ACC Standings

I don’t normally look at the standings this early in the season, but I was a little surprised at how stratified the ACC was when I pulled up the standings last Friday. After Thursday night’s games there were 6 teams without a conference win. The State/WF game was going to reduce that to 5…but then GT over UVa dropped it to 4 winless teams.

Four un-beaten teams, four winless teams and four others with the same losing record…I could say a lot more, but most of it has already been said multiple times.

 

Upcoming Games

 

 

Thankfully, there were no Monday games this week. Those play heck with the relevance of a conference summary posted on Monday morning or afternoon.

About VaWolf82

Engineer living in Central Va. and senior curmudgeon amongst SFN authors One wife, two kids, one dog, four vehicles on insurance, and four phones on cell plan...looking forward to empty nest status. Graduated 1982

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Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 26 total)
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  • #96716
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I started to say, “at least the Seahawks won”…but it would be more accurate to say that the Vikings lost. [See the full post at: Weekly ACC Basketball Update]

    #96720
    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    It’s said that apathy is the worst thing to happen to a team in sports and to be honest, I didn’t even bother checking the score until after lunch today.

    #96723
    Rick
    Keymaster

    It’s said that apathy is the worst thing to happen to a team in sports and to be honest, I didn’t even bother checking the score until after lunch today.

    There aren’t even many authors bothering anymore. I see no positive changes possible until 2019. I certainly don’t want Yow running another coaching search. She screwed one up and hired the “hot thing” with no real record because it was easy on her second. IMO apathy is definitely here

    #96724
    tractor57
    Participant

    Maybe Yow is a bit better than you think – remember uncle Jed …
    But yes maybe an issue – I’m blind to that – I keep thinking of the horrors since V was an active coach (which apparently was a couple years before he was relieved of his duties).

    #96726
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    It’s said that apathy is the worst thing to happen to a team in sports and to be honest, I didn’t even bother checking the score until after lunch today.

    There aren’t even many authors bothering anymore. I see no positive changes possible until 2019. I certainly don’t want Yow running another coaching search. She screwed one up and hired the “hot thing” with no real record because it was easy on her second. IMO apathy is definitely here

    From the limited interaction with a few of my upper tier WPC level member friend it appears that if something did happen to Gott that Arch is a shoe in to be next in line. (this was before last nights game) but everyone as a whole would be okay with Archie as a replacement and he is “on deck” as they say. He apparently wants to coach here per one of the guys. I honestly didnt ask about what he thought about Yow. So I guess the feeling is if something did happen to Gott the interview process would be pretty clean, short and open and shut.

    Now I think we are a long way from Gott leaving but if he did we shouldnt have a repeat from the previous 2 searches. We have some homegrown talent that apparently wants to coach here. So unless Yow goes completely rogue (and these guys were saying no way in hell she would) Arch would get the gig.

    Just a little tidbit from a party as was at on Sat night. For what its worth all of these guys really really like Doeren for whatever reason. That was surprising to me.

    #96727
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Zero top 50 wins. Us and BC and….that’s it.
    NE’ern at #73 is the high water mark so far.

    #96732
    eas
    Participant

    Bottom line is overall we are right back on the same path for WP basketball and football as we have been for a VERY long time. I said overall because I do think GOTT has made some improvements from the past, well really just one and that is consistent appearance in the NCAA tourney (which has been nice). However, at some point I would like to have a consistent offense and defense that produces wins in the regular season not just warming their way into the tourney.

    I know this isn’t a football thread but really DD is starting to tread water a little as well. I still support them but I would be lying to myself if I tried to say I’m happy with the BB & FB program. I’m really not happy with either. Heck my kids don’t watch the games with me anymore. Why? Their answer is simple “they don’t usually win”. As you know kids can be brutally honest most always.

    #96735
    Adventuroo
    Participant

    There is a K-Mart Blue Light Special on Tar and Feathers and Pitchforks and Torches. They are all in RED (some with White Stripes). Some are even “Logo” models signed by Dr. Larry Monteith….who lead the LAST witch hunt and burned Valvano at the stake….Signature models, of course, will be more expensive….but you will have a real momento of your despair.

    You can also get your “We want (FIB) Back” buttons there. Online orders being taken. For every $100 spent, you get 15 minutes with an Online Counselor to ease your emotional damage.

    Word is that the Counselors are the 45 YO “Talk Dirty to Me” ladies that have been displaced from the 1-900 numbers due to Internet Stars with cameras and real bodies.

    Don’t wait….supplies are limited and the Online Counseling offer ends at midnight tonight.

    #96742
    mak4dpak
    Participant

    0-3 does look bad for our ACC record. But on the bright side, as badly as we played at times in those games, we could be 3-0. No blow out losses, and we still are not playing out best, and shooting is bad. If and when the shooting improves, and out bigs can learn how to provide some offense, we be back to winning. In the mean time, guess we just have to hope it happens soon.

    #96749
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    It’s said that apathy is the worst thing to happen to a team in sports

    During the Les and early Herb years, I took this attitude one step forward and virtually quit watching college basketball. State sucked year after year and I couldn’t stand watching other teams be successful. I wouldn’t blame anyone that took that position today…but I won’t.

    I’ll just fall back to BJD’s “Shadow Pack” and pull for the less offensive teams. Heck I live within 90 minutes of both Virginia schools in the ACC. I can find plenty of friends and co-workers to watch those games with.

    #96773
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    It’s looking like the league is stronger than initially predicted.

    UNC, Duke, Pitt, Louisville and Miami are locks for the tourney.

    Now you look at GT with an RPI of 39. Where have I been? No idea if that holds up or not but that’s a team no one (I don’t think) thought would be a factor.

    Cuse isn’t going to remain in the basement. It will be interesting to see how things go with Notre Dame, FSU and Wake. I thought Wake would be a year away but they are close.

    All in all 7 or 8 bids are certainly a possibility.

    #96775
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    In Dec, I saw Seth Greenburg predict 9 ACC teams to get in. While I don’t think that the loser of the 8/9 game in the ACCT will have a chance, it shows that at least some people think highly of the top half of the ACC.

    Unfortunately, State isn’t anywhere near the top half.

    #96776
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I just realized that I forgot to give a hat tip to ESPN for their RPI calcs. They provide the option to look at each conference as a whole, which greatly speeds up my table creation.

    I’ve used CBS the last several years and I like their team breakdown better than ESPN’s…but that might be because I’ve grown accustomed to it and ESPN’s is arranged differently.

    The different sites frequently have small differences in the RPI rankings. In the past, Jerry Palm has shown how judging road/home/neutral is not as easy as it sounds. When he ran his own RPI site/blog, he went through the discussions with the NCAA over this issue and said that even the NCAA made changes when questioned.

    The only example that I remember from Palm’s blog was Indiana playing in Indianapolis, but not the university’s gym, counted as a neutral site to the NCAA. Bottom line…don’t sweat small differences.

    #96778
    Fastback68
    Participant

    State has won just enough to get into the NCAAT despite NOT (Insert long list of deficiencies) over the past four years. The fan base can readily identify these ongoing problems and realize that an additional 7-8 wins a year could be had over the regular season, the ACC tournament and the NCAAT if you could just fix the no brainers. So management is willing to tweak DD’s staff but not MG’s. At the very least, Yow and MG should be evaluating successes and failures for the individual staff members. List them in order of importance and don’t be afraid to make a change.

    Wood and Turner would work extremely hard and run through screens to get open for a shot. I’ve seen Mav work hard to get open only to be ignored. It takes two to tango. A pretty solid staple over the past four years seems to be a new weakness.

    We have some math guys at SFN. When a players secures an offensive rebound, what are the odds that he has an advantage over the competition to take another shot? 50-50? Every one of our guys goes right back up regardless of circumstance. 1 on 4, 1 on 5, it does not matter. I love Cat but in this situation it’s as if the ball is made of lava and he simply has to put that shot back up asap. None of our guys seem to get the concept of passing it back out and starting over when the numbers are not right or even when on the rare occasion the game clock is our ally. Abu, Anya and Freeman will try to plow through the treetops every single time. Not really something new, just the same old scene.

    Not hard to understand frustration leading to apathy.

    #96781
    ryebread
    Participant

    92owen: I hope your source is correct. That’d be the best news I’ve heard about NC State basketball in a long, long, long time. One has to wonder how long Arch is willing to wait being “on deck” before millions come and pry him away next year. Florida almost did it last year.

    Fastback68: I think rebounding is one of the most important stats in the game. Basketball is a game of generating possessions. Generating turnovers is one way to do it, but I’d argue it’s the harder way. Rebounding is the easy and arguably more effective way. A defensive rebound ends the possession and prevents the opponent from generating extra shots. The offensive rebound allows one to either take typically high percentage shot (and likely get fouled) or it allows one to reset the offense.

    One of our (many) problems as you mention is what we do with offensive rebounds. I’m not sure given our system if kicking it out is wise. We struggle to generate high percentage looks. Getting a short shot, even with players surrounding is likely better than what we’re going to generate in the half court (mid to long range off balance jumper or Cat trying to get back to the same spot where the rebound occurs). They might as well toss it up like hot lava and hope it goes in and they get fouled.

    #96786
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    92owen: I hope your source is correct. That’d be the best news I’ve heard about NC State basketball in a long, long, long time. One has to wonder how long Arch is willing to wait being “on deck” before millions come and pry him away next year. Florida almost did it last year.

    Rye I wouldnt really call it a source. Just a few guys who have given tons on money over the years and know various people in the WPC and on the BOT. The main guys son was a student trainer (or whatever they are called) back in the late 90’s and knows Sean Miller really well. The son speaks incredibly highly of Herb and says he is the nicest guy you could possibly know. Herbs wife apparently freaked out when their kids starting catching crap at school back at the “Fire Herb” pinnacle. I am sure you guys already knew that though.

    But yeah I think if Arch has a good season this year he is gone and if not this year most def next season. It sucks the timing is this close but appears its not going to work out. My point was mainly I dont think the coaching search would be a clustereff as before if Yow or whoever targeted Archie. I know for a fact he prefers the ACC so I guess there is that.

    #96800
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    UVa tops Miami tonight. Big win for the Hoos.

    #96810
    Rick
    Keymaster

    I just don’t even bother watching basketball. When we suck I don’t like seeing good teams play.

    #96812
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I’m not sure I’ve seen a good team yet this season, though. It all has looked like dreck to me. Perhaps I will give it a second chance in February, when I don’t have the beauty of pro football to compare it to.

    #96813
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    I enjoy watching Dayton play. Just sayin. 😉

    #97426
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Fwiw, the current espn bracketology has seven ACC teams in (UNC, Duke, Miami, Pitt, UVa, Louisville, and Notre Dame).

    #97430
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Cuse beats Duke in Cameron, Duke’s third loss in a row, and second consecutive at home.

    #97431
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Cuse beats Duke in Cameron, Duke’s third loss in a row, and second consecutive at home.

    Time for Duke to cut K loose and hire a young up and comer like Archie Miller.

    #97436
    MrPlywood
    Participant

    Isn’t Cooney 45 years old?

    #97437
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    The ACC at this point in the season is upside down…

    Deacs, Noles, Hokies, Yellow Jackets and CLEMPSOM all playing better than expected…

    Dook is yet to jell…
    Holes have the talent but lack focus and intensity…

    I’m sure I left somebody out..

    So who really knows how it all ends up ???

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
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