What does it take to reach the Final Four? (Part I)

Thanks to a sports injury I was laid up in bed with nothing to do for the better part of a week. During that time I had some time to watch basketball, both good and bad, and reflect on the state of the Wolfpack basketball program. Since the Pack’s 2014 Epic Fail in the round of 64 we’ve had transfers and early departures announced, discussions of Gottfried vs Archie Miller as the coaching carousel attraction has started spinning, and what does the future hold for NC State. All of this can be found on the main page or over on our forums. (Just click on the Forums button above in the header)

As we head into the Final Four (FF) weekend to determine the national champion I asked, Is NC State moving towards hanging another national champion banner? If the ultimate goal of the program is to win titles then shouldn’t we see what it takes? More specifically the goal the program should be striving for is reaching the Final Four because once you’re there it’s only 2 games in 3 days to become a national champion. Yes you have your occasional Cinderella’s crashing the party but most years all four teams are usually teams who aren’t sneaking up on anyone.

This will be Part I of a series of articles breaking down what a Final Four team looks like, is NC State realistically close to becoming a Final Four team, and what is Gottfried’s teams history to see if he can NC State to the promise land or unless there is a major change in philosophy does he have a ceiling.

I’m going to look at data from 2004-2014 (11 seasons) using Tempo Free Stats from KenPom.com. Why KenPom? I have a subscription so I might as well get my money out of it. Why did I pick this time frame? When I started I was looking at the last 10 years and we now have the current season Final Four Teams to add into it. I’m starting off Part I with a simple comparison of each Final Four team’s Offensive Rating (ORtg) and Defensive Rating (DRtg) to get a top of the mountain look at what a Final Four team looks like. I also included the average NCAA team rating and Mark Gottfried coached teams (Alabama and NC State) during the specified timeframe.

Note: For those not familiar with Tempo Free Stats, ORtg, and DRtg here is a breakdown of them from Ken Pomeroy.

“The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.”

“I try to measure skills based on the opportunities for those skills to be observed. On the team level, this often means ratings the offense (and defense) on points scored (and allowed) per possession. Since we need to know things in terms of possessions and possessions is not an official NCAA statistic, it must be estimated.”

“Adjusted offensive efficiency – An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense.”

“Adjusted defensive efficiency – An estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I offense.”

1.21JW: Basically tempo free means removing the pace at which teams play out of the equation to get all things equal. You can’t compare PPG between teams as to how well they play because some teams like to slow the game down and have as few possessions as possible. That way they can try to be more efficient with each possession versus the opposing team, thus a low scoring affair where they try to force (or hope you’ll make) more mistakes than them and thus they will outscore you. On the flip side a team may want to speed up the game, get as many possessions as possible to negate not being as efficient with the ball. Which team is better? This is where looking at how effective they are with their possessions is able to compare apples to apples.

So moving on to the topic of comparing Final Four teams, Mark Gottfried coached teams, and the NCAA average. Here is a graph of just the Offensive Ratings since 2004.

NCAA Tournament Final Four Teams – Offensive Ratings (2004-2014)

What you see is there is some variation from year to year but the typical Final Four team will usually be between 110-120 ORtg (meaning if they had 100 possessions during the game they would score between 110 – 120 points), with the average team showing around 102 ORtg. We overlay Mark Gottfried’s Alabama and NC State teams during the time period and you can see, with the exception of his final 1.5 seasons at Bama, he usually has his team’s offense Final Four worthy. This doesn’t mean they don’t have flaws. What it means that his teams are just as efficient scoring on each possession as the Final Four teams are. If you can get your team to an ORtg of 115 then you’ve set yourself up just fine.

Now let’s move on to defense. We’ve all talked about the lack of defense we’ve seen from Gottfried’s teams while at State but how do they stack up against the FF teams? Is it just because he’s still building a foundation at State or is it because we’ve been really young at times?

NCAA Tournament Final Four Teams – Defensive Ratings (2004-2014)

As you can see in 2011 and 2014 the teams that reached the FF weren’t as efficient at stopping the opposition as the other years but where in 2011 the country moved towards the average on both ends of the court, 2014 the national collectively increased offensively. Why? I’m going to take a shot in the dark here and say the NCAA’s new rules on contact and the FT contest we saw so many times this year had a lot to do with the sudden change. Overall though you’ll see the FF teams are usually between 87-93 DRtg. So that’s the goal. If you want to have a chance at reaching the FF and winning the title then you better be shooting for a Defensive Rating in that range to go along with the FF Offensive Rating range. We overlay Gottfried’s teams and we see why his teams struggle. Why is it we don’t see many blowouts and thus getting the starters rest and more playing time to the developing players? Simple, if you’re philosophy is to simply out Offense the other team, then don’t expect to have many comfortable leads. This also shows why the 2014 version of the Pack struggled in so many games this year, they were simply not good defensively. Dare I say they were Average at best.

Now let’s combine the two graphs and get a better picture on both ends of the court and how Gottfried’s teams compare overall to FF teams.

NCAA Tournament Final Four Teams – ORtg & DRtg (2004-2014)

This is a clear cut goal of where you want to be if your goal is to reach the FF and cut down those nets. Being good at only one aspect of the game (In Gottfried’s case Offense) will never equate to obtaining your goal if you continue to ignore the other aspect. While Gottfried should be commended for doing such a great job with the offense, his defenses are historically slightly better than average and as such he will never reach the FF without either a major fluke in the tournament or a drastic overhaul of his defensive philosophy.

I wanted to add the following graph to the article after it was brought up in the comments section. This graph is a look at the Spread between ORtg and DRtg (ORtg – DRtg = ODSpread) with the Final Four teams and Gottfried’s teams. The previous graph shows you the band of ORtg and band of DRtg but what it doesn’t show is a team may have a great offense but a “bad” defense. What this graph shows is the difference between each teams O/D and gives a zone for that. As you can see below while Gottfried may be within 4-8 percentage points of the worst team in the FF he’s never been able to even get in the zone of what Final Four teams were during that particular season.

Gottfried’s 3 best ODSpread seasons at least have met the minimum of what teams had to reach the Final Four. So there’s that.

Next installment I’ll breakdown what goes into being a good defensive FF team and if there are any common denominators between them using the Four Factors.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

College Basketball Mark Gottfried NCS Basketball

Home Forums What does it take to reach the Final Four? (Part I)

Viewing 18 posts - 26 through 43 (of 43 total)
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  • #50452
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    ^85EE, but defense just doesn’t get better on it’s own. And if Gottfried is basing his improvement on better talent then what happens when players transfer or recruiting slides for any reason? That’s a clear recipe for disaster.

    #50453
    eccdogg
    Participant

    Isn’t the real key not the AdjO or AdjD but the net of the two? 3 of the final four teams have greater than 20 points net difference and UConn is 19.

    If you are going to give up a bunch of points per possession you need to score a bunch per possession.

    Now I agree that defense is probably where the low hanging fruit for NC State. But I see our model for winning being as a very good offensive team 118-120 AdjO (like Wisconsin or Michigan) and a top 50ish defense AdjD around 96-98. That would put you in the 22 point net range.

    #50454
    13OT
    Participant

    In the college game before the mid-1980s, winning was primarily a combination of talent and skill, plus some coaching. 1983 is the textbook example of how a fundamentally solid but undermanned team could beat a team with superior talent in a title game- with great skills and coaching. But with a shot clock, it’s primarily talent. Yes, occasionally a Cinderella gets to the S16, but aside from George Mason’s run, the Final Four is usually dominated by the most talented teams. Villanova won it in ’85 with a 45-second clock, but they were playing an opponent for the 3rd time that season, and shot nearly 80% for the game, an unheard-of percentage.

    In short, in an NBA-style game, the “Law of the Jungle” prevails. The little guy has basically no chance in a series of games. Calipari knows this and although I detest the guy, he knows what to do to win. The same schools, who are the ones who get all the talent, dominate the NCAAT (and the BCS). Ignore all the early upsets, because it’s business as usual in the FF. And for schools like NCSU, that’s not good news.

    #50455
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    ^eccdogg, yes but over the last 11 years how many teams have been able to have that combination and get to the FF? Just 2 and both are this year. That’s an unrealistic plan for reaching the FF. When the offense isn’t clicking what will you have to fall back on? State doesn’t need the #1 defense but they can’t have just a slightly better than average one either, not if the goal is to reach the FF and thus a title.

    #50456
    DrWuffette1day
    Participant

    Jig, thank you. We all benefit when you are injured. That is awesome.

    Yes, we look bad on defense. We look really bad on defense on paper. We look really, really awful on a multi-line chart. I saw that Gott championed one FFDrtg outlier – sad. However that was near the end of his reign at AL though. I did notice the improved performance during his last years at AL and as another poster said, without the talent that we are able to attract. Ugggh…we are not good on d.

    Between BSW, Vandy and TL it’s amazing we stopped anybody. I know it’s not exactly great sportsmanship but when do you just throw a towel on a player and tell him to foul until he can foul no more on D. There should have been some sort of individual sacrifice for the good of the team. Don’t get me wrong…like them lots but wow.

    Holistically, I feel better because of our team’s record.

    Thanks again- this is good stuff.

    #50459
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Uh…Doc M. They did foul til they couldn’t foul no mo. Unfortunatly,it didn’t come in the form of sacrifice. Between lousy decisions, and cement feet, the fouls came pretty much in making up for lousy decisions and cement feet.

    Jigsy…If you get a chance, run us Beilein, Pitino and Boeheim…Huggins,too. D side.

    #50460
    redcanine
    Participant

    Are adidas schools allowed to play in the Final Four?

    #50464
    DrWuffette1day
    Participant

    Red Dog, you heard Mr. Dog. (why do I feel like a trucker?)

    Adidas makes cement shoes.

    #50490
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    The average FF spread (ORtg-DRtg) over the last 11 years is 24.5 with the smallest spreads being 14.3 & 14.7 (2011 VCU & Butler).

    Gottfried’s NCAAT Year Spreads (2004-Present):
    2004 15.6 (E8)
    2005 18.6 (R64)
    2006 12.1 (R32)
    2012 12.8 (S16)
    2013 15.7 (R64)
    2014 11.0 (R64)

    The number of teams that made the FF with a spread of 18.6 or less since 2004 = 6 (13.6%)

    Gottfried’s NCAAT Year DRtg (2004-Present):
    2004 97.6 (E8)
    2005 97.9 (R64)
    2006 100.1 (R32)
    2012 97.1 (S16)
    2013 98.4 (R64)
    2014 102.8 (R64)

    The number of teams that made the FF with a DRtg of 97.1 or greater since 2004 = 1 (2.3%) [2014 Wisconsin]

    *******
    When you look at the last 10 years the national champion never had less than 114.2 ORtg (2011 UConn), a DRtg greater than 92.9 (2009 UNC), or a spread less than 22.5 (2011 UConn). The average over the last 10 years for the national champion has been ORtg 119.2, DRtg 90.0, Spread 29.2.

    So what does that mean for 2014 FF?

    Well if no team with greater than a DRtg of 92.9 then you can eliminate Wisconsin (97.1) and Kentucky (96.7). If no team with less than a ORtg of 114.2 has won then you can eliminate UConn (111.6). You can also eliminate by a spread less than 22.5, Kentucky (21.3) and UConn (18.7). Sorry BJD, ShadowPack doesn’t have a chance.

    So there you have it, your 2014 National Champion…Florida. (I reserve all rights to go back later and delete this if it doesn’t come true)

    #50495
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    One year (’85?) Villanova went 1-3 against UConn. But they shot 80% from the field to win the one that matters most.

    In other words, strange things still happen.

    #50497
    44rules
    Participant

    Not sure how much stock I post in the scouts that said Purvis had great vision and was a great passer. At least I didn’t see much of that the one year at State.

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #50505
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Jigawatts = money ball. Putting money on Florida.

    #50517
    ryebread
    Participant

    A lot of good stuff here:
    – I love the initial analysis. I did something similar when we hired Gott. He’s been quite a good offensive coach and quite a mediocre defensive one. Against high major peers (and thus teams with similar talent levels), the defense has been on the poor side. The best defenses from Gott have always been about average.
    – Some argue it’s the players and recruiting. I don’t buy it other than physical attributes of those recruited. Defense is about effort, the scheme, intelligence and helping. Those things can be taught and the effort is a culture.
    – I don’t agree with the post stating that they’re hoping staff changes happen to fix the defense. From some recent accounts (related to Lutz leaving), Gott is teaching the offense and the defense. I’m not sure how swapping an assistant helps that.
    – I agree with BJD, that in college basketball I would rather be great on offense and above average on defense than great on defense and above average on offense. The reason is that teams that can’t score typically vulnerable in the tournament — particularly those who play stall ball. That’s part of why Wisconsin under Ryan has stalled out so many times. This year they just got lucky with the seed (had them in my Final Four) and the fact that Arizona was playing without a starter lost mid year. Virginia kind of struggled to score this year at times, and the first time they ran into a team with a good defense in Michigan State, they lost. These types of teams are just one emotional high or hot shooting 3 point team from getting knocked out.

    #50519
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    That’s part of why Wisconsin under Ryan has stalled out so many times. This year they just got lucky with the seed (had them in my Final Four) and the fact that Arizona was playing without a starter lost mid year.

    ^Wisconsin is also better (overall) on offense this season than in most (all) seasons under Ryan. This fact may be coincidental, but they did make the Final Four this season – the only time under Ryan. I feel however that it is not entirely coincidental – that Wiscy’s being better offensively and making the Final Four this season gives more credence to your’s and Bjd’s opinion of being ‘great on offense, good on defense’ (an opinion I share as well). Can’t take too much from this occurrence, but it is interesting nonetheless.

    #50526
    Deacon Blues
    Participant

    ^ then add UVA to your comments too pup. They also had a spike in their O this year and won the conf…..

    #50698
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    UVA was “great on D, good on offense.” Massive upgrade from their usual “great on D, avert thine eyes on offense.” Still, they had trouble getting late baskets when they really needed them. Unlike, say, Wiscy, UConn, Kentucky.

    Wiscy was pretty elite on offense this year, I just still hated watching them for some reason. They dive an awful lot, for one thing.

    #50703
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Wisky flops like a bunch of Dookies…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #50705
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    I’m amazed at how good UCONN has looked.

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