Bubble Talk

Click here for CBS’s current projected NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for ESPN’s current projected NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for USA Today’s most recent NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for NBC’s current projected NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for Live RPI projections produced almost in real time.

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One consistent thing that you will note in every one of those projected brackets — there is NO inclusion of NC State in these brackets.

The brackets would seem to indicate that the following ten teams are vying for the last five spots in the dance: NC State, Dayton, Nebraska, Xavier, SMU, BYU, Cal, Minnesota and Florida State and Wisconsin Green Bay.

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I have always been a big fan of Patrick Stevens. I don’t know anything about him, but Stevens is clearly innately smarter than the average member of the media and has consistently shown an ability to analyze data with more clarity and less of a challenge than others. Earlier today he posted this link that I think does the best job of crystallizing where things stand on the bubble. His ‘last four in’ are Xavier, BYU, Nebraska and NC State and he highlights the decision of the last six (3 in and 3 out) as follows:

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers (19-12) are 8-9 against the top 100 (not bad), won at Michigan State and haven’t done anything remotely bad in nearly two months. Their strength of schedule raises no flags, but their 4-11 road/neutral record does. A top-50 RPI won’t hurt, either. Verdict: IN

Brigham Young: What a difficult profile to discern. The Cougars (23-11) have a great RPI (31), and the sort of nonconference strength of schedule (4) that tends to be rewarded. BYU is decent away from Provo (9-10) and has a winning record against the top 100 (8-7), but also has four losses to teams outside the top 100 and just lost its No. 2 scorer (guard Kyle Collinsworth) to an ACL tear. It’s a real coin flip. Verdict: IN

N.C. State: The Wolfpack (21-13) has a winning record away from Raleigh (8-7), fairly inoffensive bad losses (Miami and Wake Forest) and did its best work (beating Syracuse in Greensboro and Pittsburgh and Tennessee on the road) outside its own building. Of the remaining teams, there’s less bad about N.C. State, and sometimes that’s good enough. Verdict: IN

Southern Methodist: The Mustangs (23-9) are yet another bit of evidence that human polls are entirely worthless for a bracketing endeavor. While they are good away from home (8-8) and respectable against the top 50 (4-5), they played the nation’s No. 296 nonconference schedule. The last team to play a nonconference schedule worse than 250th and earn anything between a No. 9 and No. 16 seed was 2006 Air Force. The committee routinely punishes teams that don’t play difficult nonconference schedules, and SMU probably will be no different. Verdict: OUT

Wisconsin-Green Bay: The wild card in all of this, the Phoenix (24-6) owns a victory over Virginia, an 11-3 record away from home and a winning record against the top 100 (4-3). There are no nonconference strength of schedule issues here (52nd), though Horizon League play brought the overall SOS number down to 144th. If the committee is going to show clemency to any team, it is probably Green Bay, but it should also be noted the Phoenix lost in their conference semifinals on their own court. Verdict: OUT

California: There’s some nice wins for the Golden Bears (19-13), including a Feb. 1 upset of Arizona. But there’s also a lot of losses, a 4-10 mark against the top 50, a 5-11 record against the top 100, a 6-9 mark away from Berkeley, and an ugly loss to Southern California (RPI: 175). That’s probably not going to cut it for much more than an NIT No. 1 seed. Verdict: OUT

I don’t need to say anything else. I choose to follow Stevens’ view and think this is about as accurate of a current bubble analysis as I’ve seen

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Viewing 25 posts - 26 through 50 (of 124 total)
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    Posts
  • #46966
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    but Herb didn’t personally do anything to us, right? If so I’ve either forgotten or just moved on.. either way it’s better for my health that way.

    The only think I can think of is he was supposedly spreading rumors of job offers in order to get raises. Otherwise, he’s just a casualty of our struggle with public perception.

    #46967
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Wow, the South Region is weak as f-ck.

    #46968
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Florida and Pitt could be a very interesting game.

    Dawkins saves his job. Stanford in.

    #46969
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Dayton IN.

    #46970
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Wow, Dayton not even Last Four.

    #46971
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Go Archie…beat that Buckeye ass.

    #46972
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Fine job by Archie in a solid conference.

    #46973
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Nobody will stay within 10 of the Gators in that bracket. Weak sauce, almost NO athletic teams.

    #46974
    Texpack
    Participant

    Nothing in the South Region that dims our chances

    #46976
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Can’t dim zero.

    #46977
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    I agree with you there BJD, Gators should be able to moonwalk to the final four and party every night on their way there.

    #46978
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    you could divide by zero and see what unfolds

    #46979
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Yea Gators have quite the easy road. Not that they really need it.

    #46980
    Texpack
    Participant

    Can’t dim zero.

    I maintain we have a better than 20% chance based on my conversation with Sister Maria this afternoon.

    #46981
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    wooo weee, go Wildcats, where is Azzhat to come in here and tell everybody some sh!t?

    #46982
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Wow, Arizona has to feel uber-fucked right now. Okie State their 9?

    #46983
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I’d rather play Oklahoma or SD State than the Cowpokes any day. Ouch.

    #46984
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    BYU IN.

    #46985
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    BYU also NOT Last Four.

    #46986
    Texpack
    Participant

    BYU in sucks for us

    #46987
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Creighton/Baylor/Nebraska – three interesting teams all bunched together.

    #46988
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Nebraska and BYU in. Not good.

    #46989
    Texpack
    Participant

    Nebraska also sucks for us. Creighton got screwed with a second round game in San Antonio vs Baylor 60 miles from home.

    #46990
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Watch out for Oregon in that bracket. Never trust da Badgers.

    #46991
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Wow, that does suck for Creigh-Creigh. But Nebraska could easily beat Baylor.

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