Bubble Talk

Click here for CBS’s current projected NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for ESPN’s current projected NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for USA Today’s most recent NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for NBC’s current projected NCAA Tournament bracket.

Click here for Live RPI projections produced almost in real time.

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One consistent thing that you will note in every one of those projected brackets — there is NO inclusion of NC State in these brackets.

The brackets would seem to indicate that the following ten teams are vying for the last five spots in the dance: NC State, Dayton, Nebraska, Xavier, SMU, BYU, Cal, Minnesota and Florida State and Wisconsin Green Bay.

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I have always been a big fan of Patrick Stevens. I don’t know anything about him, but Stevens is clearly innately smarter than the average member of the media and has consistently shown an ability to analyze data with more clarity and less of a challenge than others. Earlier today he posted this link that I think does the best job of crystallizing where things stand on the bubble. His ‘last four in’ are Xavier, BYU, Nebraska and NC State and he highlights the decision of the last six (3 in and 3 out) as follows:

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers (19-12) are 8-9 against the top 100 (not bad), won at Michigan State and haven’t done anything remotely bad in nearly two months. Their strength of schedule raises no flags, but their 4-11 road/neutral record does. A top-50 RPI won’t hurt, either. Verdict: IN

Brigham Young: What a difficult profile to discern. The Cougars (23-11) have a great RPI (31), and the sort of nonconference strength of schedule (4) that tends to be rewarded. BYU is decent away from Provo (9-10) and has a winning record against the top 100 (8-7), but also has four losses to teams outside the top 100 and just lost its No. 2 scorer (guard Kyle Collinsworth) to an ACL tear. It’s a real coin flip. Verdict: IN

N.C. State: The Wolfpack (21-13) has a winning record away from Raleigh (8-7), fairly inoffensive bad losses (Miami and Wake Forest) and did its best work (beating Syracuse in Greensboro and Pittsburgh and Tennessee on the road) outside its own building. Of the remaining teams, there’s less bad about N.C. State, and sometimes that’s good enough. Verdict: IN

Southern Methodist: The Mustangs (23-9) are yet another bit of evidence that human polls are entirely worthless for a bracketing endeavor. While they are good away from home (8-8) and respectable against the top 50 (4-5), they played the nation’s No. 296 nonconference schedule. The last team to play a nonconference schedule worse than 250th and earn anything between a No. 9 and No. 16 seed was 2006 Air Force. The committee routinely punishes teams that don’t play difficult nonconference schedules, and SMU probably will be no different. Verdict: OUT

Wisconsin-Green Bay: The wild card in all of this, the Phoenix (24-6) owns a victory over Virginia, an 11-3 record away from home and a winning record against the top 100 (4-3). There are no nonconference strength of schedule issues here (52nd), though Horizon League play brought the overall SOS number down to 144th. If the committee is going to show clemency to any team, it is probably Green Bay, but it should also be noted the Phoenix lost in their conference semifinals on their own court. Verdict: OUT

California: There’s some nice wins for the Golden Bears (19-13), including a Feb. 1 upset of Arizona. But there’s also a lot of losses, a 4-10 mark against the top 50, a 5-11 record against the top 100, a 6-9 mark away from Berkeley, and an ugly loss to Southern California (RPI: 175). That’s probably not going to cut it for much more than an NIT No. 1 seed. Verdict: OUT

I don’t need to say anything else. I choose to follow Stevens’ view and think this is about as accurate of a current bubble analysis as I’ve seen

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This topic contains 123 replies, has 27 voices, and was last updated by  JeremyH 5 months, 2 weeks ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 124 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #46878

    StateFans
    Keymaster

    JUST IN: #Selections Committee is down to 8 teams! They’re evaluating who’s the last 4 in and who’s the last 4 out. #soclose— NCAA March Madness
    [See the full post at: Bubble Talk]

    #46910

    patientwuf
    Participant

    I can live with the fact that NC State gets snubbed as long as SMU and Arz State get the same fate.

    To consider a team with a Non Conference strength of schedule of 230-250 (Arz State) and 300-320 (SMU) is idiotic to me.

    #46917

    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    I still say that if the Selection Committee has a sense of humor (and you know they do) we’ll play the Desert Fox in Dayton.

    No matter what, either way we’ll be mentioned one way or the other on the talking head shows. We’ll have some making our case and others denigrating us as much as they can.

    Either way, Seth “Uncle Fester” Greenberg will have nothing good to say about us. I barely found him tolerable during the season this year, but after his stream of insults towards us an TJ Warren the past couple of days, he’s become a channel-changer whenever I see his smug face on the television.

    #46918

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    ASU is a lock so be prepared to PO’d.

    #46920

    packalum44
    Participant

    The RPI is a flawed measure. The BCS is far superior. It uses point differential in games.

    If you asked opposing NCAA coaches which bubble teams they’d rather not play…NC State would be at the top. We are playing top 25 basketball right now.

    Played 4 freshman and 2 sophomores. Different team than beginning of the season.

    Ron Wellman knows this. He’s voting us in…how much sway does he have with other selection members. Do they resist his ACC bias??

    #46922

    Avid109
    Participant

    You know they’d just love to put the Pack into a play-in game against Arizona State.

    #46923

    tractor57
    Participant

    Karma would be the Pack playing the Fighting Sendeks. Not that I expect such but it would be karma – especially if the Pack sent them back to the desert with their tales tucked.

    #46924

    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    “Ron Wellman knows this. He’s voting us in…how much sway does he have with other selection members.”

    Question – do committee members have to recuse themselves when it comes to their conference or just their own team? Curse his name, I think I remember Fowler saying that from his days on the NCAA TSC.

    #46928

    Rick
    Keymaster

    “Ron Wellman knows this. He’s voting us in…how much sway does he have with other selection members.”

    Question – do committee members have to recuse themselves when it comes to their conference or just their own team? Curse his name, I think I remember Fowler saying that from his days on the NCAA TSC.

    Has to be teams. Otherwise any one from s major conference would be leaving constantly

    #46932

    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    Let’s hope Wellman represents well then.

    Really, the ACC deserves six. I’d love for it to be us, obviously.

    #46935

    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    Also, I should add that I hope Wellman remembers how his Demon Deacons won in W/S against us and how that victory may mean the difference.

    #46945

    choppack1
    Participant

    Think we are one of 1st 2 out.

    #46948

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I dunno how many times I have to say this…but it’s FIGHTEN SENDEKS.

    With an “e” and no apostrophe. Don’t question why, that’s simply what it must be.

    #46951

    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    We are playing top 25 basketball right now.

    You have to ignore alot of crap like @Clemson and Miami in Raleigh to support that conclusion.

    PS = It’s 37F and snowing in Central VA now.

    #46952

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    They are talking ice here tomorrow. Seppuku is a viable option for me.

    #46953

    redcanine
    Participant

    So, we’ll know what’s what by 6:00 or 6:30?

    #46955

    choppack1
    Participant

    I think we know what is what right now. Our next game is in Reynolds.

    #46957

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I texted NIT Stan to see if we are gonna get a 1 seed or be screwed onto the 2 line. Haven’t heard back.

    #46959

    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Oh, dear God. Are we gonna have to listen to Doug Gottlieb in addition to Seth Davis on the selection show? Jeebus.

    #46960

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    Way too much optimism in here.. hopefully that good cheer will be sustained during the NIT selection process.

    #46961

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    Can someone please explain why we all lament Herb Sendek again?

    #46962

    Sweet jumper
    Participant

    I like Patrick Stevens. Forget all the other bubble forecasters!!:)

    #46963

    Wulfpack
    Participant

    I would like them to ask Wellman why in the hell he is hanging on to Bzzzz.

    #46964

    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Can someone please explain why we all lament Herb Sendek again?

    Because we were burned at the stake in local and national media for not being satisfied with his brand of mediocre basketball. People still think he was fired from NC State.

    Now we need him to fail so we can all look back and say, “I told you so….”

    "I want my ten dollars!" -Abraham Lincoln
    #46965

    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    but Herb didn’t personally do anything to us, right? If so I’ve either forgotten or just moved on.. either way it’s better for my health that way.

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