(12) NC STATE vs (12) XAVIER Preview

Time: 9:10ish pm
Location: Dayton, OH
TV: TruTV
Announcers: Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner and Kristine Leahy

Well Wolfpackers, we’re Dancing!! and we all know what that means…Survive and Advance. Our beloved Wolfpack were the very last team selected for the Big Dance and as such they are sent to Dayton, OH for the “First Round” match-up against the Xavier Musketeers, who just joined the NEW Big East this year. Xavier finished in a 3-way tie for third in the new Big East, along with Providence and St. Johns, and were the #3 seed where they lost in the semifinals to #2 Creighton 86-78.

For those that don’t know Xavier is located in Cincinnati, OH and is only 50 miles from Dayton where the games will be played. Needless to say this will be a home game of sorts for the Musketeers. Speaking of the Musketeers, did you know that while D’Artagnan, the Musketeer, is the university’s official mascot and is the origin of the school’s nickname, they have another mascot? The Blue Blob.

I want to see a mascot fight just for the pure entertainment of seeing this thing in action.

Let’s take a look at the teams

As you can see there’s not much difference between these 2 teams when it comes to their style of play (mostly man, moderate tempo) and four factors. On offense the Pack turns the ball over less where the Musketeers are able to get to the FT Line more and shoot the 3 better. On Defense the Pack holds their opponents to a lower FG% but the Musketeers are better at defensive rebounding (no shock there since everyone is better than the Pack) and they don’t send their opposition to the FT line as much.

INJURY REPORT
Xavier: Center Matt Stainbrook strained his MCL 2 weeks ago during the Seton Hall loss. He didn’t play in the season finale loss to Villanova but did return to action in the Big East Tournament. Stainbrook didn’t start in the Musketeers win over Marquette, instead coming off the bench playing fewer minutes than his average game, he was only slightly below his normal efficiency and averages in the win. Stainbrook again came off the bench in Xavier’s loss to Creighton but this time played even fewer minutes and wasn’t as effective rebounding the ball while still being an offensive threat.

PROBABLE STARTERS

#1 Jalen Reynolds (6-9 222 FR) Forward – Normally Reynolds would be coming off the bench but with the injury to starting center Matt Stainbrook, he’s been pushed up to the starting line-up. Stainbrook may start but for now we are assuming it’s Reynolds. For a freshman who plays sparingly, Reynolds has some nice numbers: 112 ORtg; 56% Effective Field Goal Pct (eFG), 16% Offensive Rebounding Rate (OR), 19% Defensive Rebounding Rate (DR) but he is a fouling machine at 7.5 Fouls Called per 40 minutes.
#20 Justin Martin (6-6 205 JR) Forward – Martin puts up pretty good numbers: 55% eFG; 17% OR; 108 ORtg, but he has a tendency to turn the ball over, 19.5% TOrate. Martin has taken the most 3 pointers on the team and has the best average at 39%. Turner can’t afford to lose Martin on the court like he has a tendency to do on defense or it’ll cost the Pack.
#31 Isaiah Philmore (6-8 230 SR) Forward – Philmore is another good efficient player at 110 ORtg; 54% eFG; 10% OR, 14.4% DR but like Martin he has a problem holding onto the ball, 18% TORate. Philmore hasn’t made a 3 all year and can draw the foul so look for him under the basket, especially since he’s the Musketeers second leading Offensive Rebounder behind Stainbrook.
#0 Semaj Christon (6-3 190 SO) Guard – Christon is Xavier’s superstar, First Team All Big East player, and I’m going to go out on a limb here and say he’s Lee’s responsibility on defense. Christon’s numbers don’t WOW you, at 107.5 ORtg; 50% eFG; 1.6% OR; 7.4% DR, those aren’t knock your socks off numbers. He does carry a 25.4% Assist Rate (AR) coupled with a 16% TORate and averages 17 PPG. He’ll shoot the occasional 3 pointer and make them a third of the time. He draws A LOT of fouls and shoots a lot of FT’s, so without ever seeing him play I’m guessing he likes to drive the ball to the rim and draw contact. It’ll be interesting to see how much the refs call the new contact rule in the tournament. Lee will have his hands full and will likely need weak side help.
#11 Dee Davis (6-0 161 JR) Guard – Davis is another starter with a decent ORtg of 109%; notice everyone on Xavier is close to 110% ORtg making them a very efficient team. Davis likes to take as many 3’s as 2’s and strangely enough has made the same for each. Davis is sporting a 27.5% AR (someone needs to with all these efficient shooters) but is crippled by a 23.3% TORate. Hipster Cat, PRESSURE HIM!!!!

BENCH

#40 Matt Stainbrook (6-10 263 JR), #2 James Farr (6-9 237 SO), #15 Myles Davis (6-2 195 FR), #3 Brandon Randolph.

As much as Christon gets talked about Stainbrook, IMO, is the real MVP and will be the X-Factor in the game for Xavier. If he’s healthy and playing near 100% then I think the Pack will be in trouble. Stainbrook sports a 112% ORtg; 55.5% eFG; 12% OR; 24% DR; 20% AR; 4.6% Blocking Rate and a 19.2% TORate. Farr and Davis bring quality play off the bench (and a legendary Jazz sound), with Farr being more of the scorer between the two but Davis is a 3pt threat.

Who has the Advantage?

It’s a stalemate folks. The Pack will score some and the Mouseketeers will prevent some. So let’s say the Pack ends up with an eFG of 50%.

Yeesh. Four facepalms out of Six categories, hard to overcome even with the hipster cat. Seriously, Xavier’s offense isn’t awe inspiring but the Pack’s defense can make even Miami’s offense look like National Champs, so expect them to score easier than they have all season. Also, start placing bets on who the “unknown player with the career game” is going to be; my money is on Davis.

PREDICTION
KenPom likes Xavier by 4 points.
Sagarin likes Xavier by 7 points. (4 if you take away home court adv)
Vegas opened with Xavier -1 points and is now sitting at -2.5.

Looking over it all the Pack should lose and for the same reason they’ve lost games all season:
(1) No defensive rebounding vs a team good at offensive rebounding.
(2) They don’t create fast break opportunities from forcing turnovers or defensive rebounding.
(3) Little help for Buckets.
(4) Inability to stretch the defense due to the lack of a 3PT shot.

The Pack is the same team we’ve seen all season, that hasn’t changed. Xavier isn’t a top 4 seed so they are beatable and the Pack has something Xavier doesn’t…TJ Warren. The question is will the Pack overcome their usual problems enough to Survive and Advance. I’ll continue with my “it’s only weird if it doesn’t work” meme and say the Pack should keep it close but once again defensive rebounding and Warren having to do all the scoring will be their undoing.

Xavier by 5.

HEADLINES

Ryan Tice (TheWolfpacker.com)
First Look: Xavier

Bret Strelow (FayObserver.com)
Wolfpack looking to make most of surprise First Four meeting with Xavier

Stephen Schramm (FayObserver.com)
NCAA tournament preview: N.C. State

Jeff Borzello (CBSSports.com)
Viewer’s Guide: The First Four gets started

No. 12 North Carolina State vs. No. 12 Xavier (9:10 p.m., truTV): Both were bubble teams entering Selection Sunday, although Xavier felt far more confident than NC State. The Musketeers were hoping to avoid the First Four, while the Wolfpack were just hoping to get in. Well, NC State got a bid, but Xavier is playing in Dayton. The winner moves on to play Saint Louis — a winnable game for both. NC State is led by T.J. Warren, one of the best pure scorers in college basketball. He is capable of carrying the offense, as demonstrated by back-to-back 40-point games late in the season. Warren will need help from complementary options to beat Xavier, though. The Musketeers have a number of different weapons on the offensive end, with playmaker Semaj Christon carrying the load. He’s difficult to contain off the bounce, and his ability to get into the lane opens up shots for his teammates. The key could be NC State keeping Xavier off the offensive glass, and the Musketeers slowing down Warren.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home Forums (12) NC STATE vs (12) XAVIER Preview

Viewing 25 posts - 26 through 50 (of 552 total)
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  • #47449
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Comments and Slight Disagreements

    JonhG – your list of differences
    Confidence – it’s different for these two teams in an odd way.
    Last year’s team seemed be overconfident in a “We deserve to be good and don’t need to work hard” way. EDIT – (Maybe that was just CJ) This years team I think has lacked confident. But they have been willing to work hard and confidence seems to be growing. We just need our guards to be confident and hit shots.

    BJD – always love your comments but is KH’s defense that much better than Vandy’s? They both are big and slow but both can block and affect shooters. I don’t think Vandy is out of position any more than KH. And Vandy can get back down court better. I would move Vandy up one and KH down one. Just my view.

    Overall, I think our defense is improving. The two mental let down games (Clemson and Miami) excluded, I think we are showing a competitive defense that can take us though a couple of games. Aside from help for Warren, I think it’s a good defensive performance that will win us the games. I don’t mean an awesome defense, just a good performance to compliment our offense and give us some fast break points and stops at key times.

    Overly optimistic again. GO PACK!

    #47453
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    KH’s defense, especially footwork, needs a lot of work. Vandy is the better guy right now, if he can stay on the floor. KH also ain’t rebounding, either. He has a long way to go.

    #47454
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Good point, Bill. The “any 1 or 2 of EIGHT” factor IS quite difficult to prepare/gameplan for.

    The problem for State is you never know if there will even be “any 1 or 2 of EIGHT”.

    #47455
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    KH stays home more, and is the better overall shot blocker. Plus he LOVES being physical. But yeah, he is probably more uneven than the tier in which I listed him.

    I shit-canned the Luckie thread and will do so to any others that go off the rails. No bad juju on NCAAT tourney gameday.

    My Stalin powers are vast. Da.

    #47456
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Jigs – you’re totally right. Makes us hard to gamplan for our staff, too. LOL

    #47459
    packof81
    Participant

    Go Pack!

    #47461
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Good call on the No bad Juju move. Almost time to go back down into the dark basement for bud light.

    #47462
    MISTA WOLF
    Participant

    I am happy to be a part of the big dance, to get to dance with the belle of the ball. However I am not happy to just have made it. I expect to win and all of us should have that attitude(which I believe we do.) For how long we get to dance depends on the young men and the coaching staff. Our defense will be a challenge especially when we go to zone. I think the zone will limit Christon driving the lane, but when he does penetrate, he will be looking for Martin on the wing. Those 2 guys alone shoot right at 40% from 3. We have to rotate in our zone or they will have many chances to shoot the long ball. I personally would like to see TJ play up top in the zone rather than the back line simply for his defensive prowess. Cat will already be up top, so my idea is why not put your 2 best defenders up top to stop the drive? When we go man hopefully Gott will have Cat sag Christon to stop the penetration of the lane. I’m proud of the boys. I hope they see all the negative things people are saying about them being in the tournament and let it be fuel to the fire. Don’t just be happy to be there. Go out and play like you’ll die tomorrow.

    #47468
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Gottfried will always base PT on the player’s offensive ability and the fit in the high post. Defense and rebounding are afterthoughts. Come tourney time, we’ll always play on the margins. Because we depend on shooting a high percentage and scoring it efficiently, we can’t have off nights on O because we don’t defend and rebound well consistently. When you get to 64, you face pretty balanced teams, as a rule. Xavier isn’t knock-your-socks off great on either end, but they’re solid on both. This one is a coin flip. Could win, could lose, could be ugly, could be a blowout.

    #47469
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Gottfried will always base PT on the player’s offensive ability and the fit in the high post. Defense and rebounding are afterthoughts. Come tourney time, we’ll always play on the margins. Because we depend on shooting a high percentage and scoring it efficiently, we can’t have off nights on O because we don’t defend and rebound well consistently. When you get to 64, you face pretty balanced teams, as a rule. Xavier isn’t knock-your-socks off great on either end, but they’re solid on both. This one is a coin flip. Could win, could lose, could be ugly, could be a blowout.

    I haven’t seen them play, but the rumor is they’re sloppy with the ball. If that’s true, with TJ’s tendency to jump passing lanes and pick off passes, that might swing things slightly in our favor.

    #47470
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^Paki…that’s a wash. We may get a few easy buckets in transition but we’ll give up Offensive boards and easy looks. We are who we are.

    #47475
    44rules
    Participant

    So am I the only one who really wants to see the O run more through the Vandwagon? He’s the second best passer on the team, and when it goes inside he is very happy to look for a cutter or to pass it back out. He’s not bad with that little hook shot, either.
    Of course, it would help if somebody other than TJ would cut into the lane …

    Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy. Mao Zedong

    #47478
    maverick_ncsu
    Participant

    ^ I have been thinking that as well. Vandy is a pretty good passer and at the ACCT, his shot looked pretty good. Also really liked what we did in the first game of the ACCT that had Turner not simply shooting 3s. He was moving, head-faking, taking a couple of steps in and to the side and shooting mid-range jumpers. Would have like to see him take a couple of those in the Duke game just to see if that could get his shot going again.

    #47480
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Yea, sometimes I feel like Vandy should look for his shot more. He passes out when he has great position underneath. But that may be mostly from coaches instruction. If he shot a lot more, would he miss a lot more. As it is, he mainly takes gimmies.

    #47486
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    The problem for State is you never know if there will even be “any 1 or 2 of EIGHT”.

    Yep… they’re still young kids… but that’s the other coaches headache…more than ours…

    Any math wizard can figure the odds are in our favor of some one showing up…
    especially if the last four or five games are considered as a group…

    Tonight… I’m betting on the BIGS…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #47498
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Just win, Baby….

    #47507
    wolf2003
    Participant

    <2. NC State vs. the world. Every year there’s one team everyone agrees had no business being in the tournament.

    This year it’s NC State.

    Indeed, NC State was on three of 168 simulations of the NCAA tournament field. NC State went in and broke everyone’s matrices.

    Related: Let’s go NC State! Beat Xavier and then beat Saint Louis and prove everybody wrong. The world needs more T.J. Warren.
    >
    This insert comes from http://www.Grantland.com

    I guess other people want to see other more of the Wolfpack and TJ.

    #47511
    redisgood
    Participant

    I’m thinking Xavier will not be able to contain TJ (big revelation there), and I also think Dez and Cat will be up to the defensive task. Wolfpack by 8.

    As an aside, I’m an infrequent poster, but a regular reader. I gotta say, BJD has by far the most credibility when it comes to breaking down a game. His assessments are regularly spot on, and I look forward to reading them.

    #47512
    JohnGalt78
    Participant

    ^Mav, I recall (ACCT) Vandy being forced to shoot several times (with fairly good results) when dealt the hot potato at 2.5 seconds left on the shot clock. He had no choice. Whatever….it seemed to work.

    Damn, here I go again….hope creeping in. I really feel good about tonight, damnit! I can’t quit you, Wolfpack.

    Any chance there will be ACC official(s) calling this game????

    #47516
    Pack85EE
    Participant

    Wait, what color is Xavier?

    #47517
    maverick_ncsu
    Participant

    I get what you mean about the hot potato, but I really liked seeing that quick decision-making and passing. I was watching a couple of the ACCT games with my father-in-law who hasn’t watched a bunch of State games this year. He kept asking me why we didn’t move and pass that quickly on offense all of the time because we seem to be getting better looks out of it.

    I realize you can’t take end-of-shot-clock offense too far, it did seem like it opened the door for cutters and shooters because we didn’t give the defense time to catch their guy if he got free. I don’t think the only type of up-tempo offense has to come from fast breaks. With a heady PG and a couple of slashers on the floor at the same time (Warren, Dez, Cat), I think we could have done this a bit more this year, even as a change of pace. It feels like over half of our possessions are going down to the 12 to 10 secs left on the shot clock. This is good clock management some times, but it’s not too bad to change it up some either to catch the D napping.

    #47520
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Yep… they’re still young kids… but that’s the other coaches headache…more than ours…

    Any math wizard can figure the odds are in our favor of some one showing up…
    especially if the last four or five games are considered as a group…

    Tonight… I’m betting on the BIGS…

    Actually Bill it’s State’s problem. While the opposing coaches don’t know which of the other 8 will step up and contribute it’s painfully obvious that if you completely concentrate on slowing down Warren, read: not stop him just slow him down, that the rest of the team is so inconsistent you’ll increase your chances of beating State. Here’s a look at the contribution of the team in regards to points, more specifically those who score double digits. I didn’t have time to get into the weeds of percentage for everyone.

    The first chart is just for games against BCS level competition and is pretty self explanatory. Obviously Warren is the workhorse but it’s also showing who’s been helping Warren this year and who’s been doing it over the last month.

    The second chart is State’s record when breaking down the percentage of points Warren scored in the game and the team’s record. FYI, the 2 loses for +40% are home vs UNC and at Syracuse. Heck the Syracuse game had 6 players only contribute 9% of the points. I found the 30-30% record (3-7) interesting because Warren is producing but not at such a high level to overcome the lack of support from his teammates.

    Even when 3 players score in double digits State still loses, something about lack of defense and the rest of the team not contributing at all.

    This is a very quick and high look at point contribution so I’m sure I’ve overlooked stuff that could be of more use. I realize there is so much more to contributing to a victory besides scoring double digits but I had to start somewhere and it appears that State is better off setting up TJ to score then relying on the rest when they don’t have a gimmie shot.

    #47522
    packsage
    Participant

    The point spread on this game has gone from Xavier minus 1.5 to Xavier minus 3.5. EVERYONE is taking Xavier. No respect from the smart money. What do they know that we don’t?

    My nervousness level is rising…

    #47523
    Alpha Wolf
    Keymaster

    This applies tonight:

    “When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment… or the moment defines you.” —Roy ‘Tin Cup’ McAvoy

    #47524
    redisgood
    Participant

    This applies tonight:

    “When a defining moment comes along, you define the moment… or the moment defines you.” —Roy ‘Tin Cup’ McAvoy

    I hope that wasn’t right before he put 10 balls in the water.

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